I wondered aloud last night whether Labour's collapse in the latest UK-wide YouGov poll really heralded good news for the SNP, or whether the fringe parties would simply benefit at the expense of all the main parties in Scotland. But the detailed breakdown of the poll has now been released, and the Scottish sub-sample for the Westminster vote shows the following -
SNP 38% (+9)
Labour 27% (-1)
Conservatives 15% (-14)
Liberal Democrats 14% (+4)
Others 7% (+4)
As ever there is a huge health warning that needs to be attached to any sub-sample, but it does look potentially significant, especially since YouGov is the pollster that in the last few months has been consistently least likely to show the SNP in the lead for Westminster.
PS. I've just received one of those tedious "hard-working Scottish families love the Labour Party" leaflets - of course that sort of thing has always rung hollow for me, but I suddenly realised looking at it just how out-of-touch it's going to look to the average floating voter in the current circumstances.