Thursday, September 29, 2022

Labour's mind-boggling 33-point lead in the new GB-wide YouGov poll means one of two things: either Truss will not survive as leader until 2024, or Tory rule is guaranteed to end

YouGov have rushed out the data tables from their new GB-wide voting intention poll much quicker than usual, and I'm not surprised, because it's a poll that probably deserves the term "historic".  Although I'm old enough to remember many, many polls showing similarly humungous Labour leads in the 1990s, almost all of them came after we had practically started factoring in a Labour government in 1997 as a near-certainty.  Until very recently, there was no particular expectation of a Labour government, but now it suddenly seems hard to imagine any other outcome in the 2024 general election - and it's taken just this one landmark poll to get us to that new reality.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 28th-29th September 2022):

Labour 54% (+9)
Conservatives 21% (-7)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-2)
Greens 6% (-1)
SNP 5% (+1)
Reform UK 4% (+1)

Scottish subsample: SNP 44%, Labour 38%, Conservatives 10%, Greens 4%, Liberal Democrats 2%, Reform UK 1%

I said the other day that YouGov's Scottish subsamples are sometimes an early warning system for new trends in Scotland.  There was absolutely no sign of a possible new trend in the previous poll, but there absolutely is in this new one.  But the operative word is "possible" - although YouGov seem to structure and weight their Scottish subsamples correctly, the sample size is still very small (around 150), so the margin of error is considerable.  And even if the Labour surge in Scotland is real, remember that the circumstances have been very favourable for the party this week, with the Labour conference taking place and Starmer's keynote speech being (inexplicably) lavished with praise in the mainstream media.  Not every week will be like this one for Labour.

However, I hope certain parts of the independence movement might view these numbers as a wake-up call, and realise that there is no room for little luxuries or indulgences when we're trying to win a mandate for independence in a plebiscite election.  Pro-independence parties between them have 48% of the vote in this subsample, so a mandate on the popular vote is absolutely possible - but what will that count for if Labour win a majority of Scottish seats, as they'd be very close to doing on 38% of the vote?  We can't afford to play silly buggers - we need to get behind one pro-independence candidate in each constituency to ensure we contain any Labour surge.

And as far as the Britain-wide picture is concerned, it now seems clear that the public have made up their minds about Liz Truss and she has already passed the point of no return.  She is quite simply unelectable.  If the Tories are to have any chance of retaining power in 2024, they need not only to remove her from office, but to do it in such a way that whatever comes afterwards feels like a wholly new government (an impression that, in fairness, both Boris Johnson and Truss herself managed to pull off).

There's also a new Survation poll tonight which shows a similar trend at GB level (albeit with not quite such an enormous Labour lead), but thankfully with a much more reassuring Scottish subsample.

GB-wide voting intentions (Survation, 29th September 2022):

Labour 49% (+6)
Conservatives 28% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-)
SNP 5% (+1)
Reform UK 2% (-3)
Greens 1% (-2)

Scottish subsample: SNP 51%, Labour 29%, Conservatives 11%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Greens 1%

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  1. Will the Loon last 2 more weeks, naw - out on her ass.

  2. I was looking at some polls in some newspapers in 1974 when doing some research. It had the Tories leading in Scotland a week before the February election. Spoiler - they didn't top the poll. it was the SNP who rose in the polls.

    Sudden increases in support for any party tend to drop off quickly. We need to look at the trend over the next month as then all the party Conferences should be over and we can see what wreckage the Tories can salvage, if they can. Labour's support will be soft in places. I suspect Truss will get dumped after a few months.

  3. Of course two years is a long time in politics and either through a massive u turn or a new leader the Conservatives might still have time to recover but the gap is so huge now it's hard to see it.

    Although I certainly feel a UK Labour government would be somewhat of an an improvement over what we have now, it would also make independence much less appealing to large parts of Scottish voters. Without a Conservative government I think it's extremely unlikely there would ever be a majority for independence and the way things are going Labour could be in power for a generation.

    As for the SNP, the worst case scenario would be a near wipeout by Labour in the Central Belt at the next election as people vote Labour to remove the Conservatives from power. This came so close to happening in 2017, I remember the conversations I had with pro independence voters who were switching to Labour as 'the SNP can't win and I want Corbyn as Prime Minister'. In saying that it's hard to see Keir motivating as many people to switch as Corbyn did as Labour aren't really promising radical change in any way, their appeal now is that they aren't the Conservatives who have now wrecked their credibility had years of scandals and chaos.

  4. As I thought - the popular plebicite policy is likely a loser at this juncture, especially with a colorless, passionless, bland SNP. Maybe next time - then again, perhaps the Scots will have had enough by spring 2023 ?