Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Alba's allure affirmed: Alex Salmond's new pro-independence party storms to best poll result since 2021 election in BMG belter

I'm not entirely sure when the Herald published them, and an online search has drawn a blank, but it's been brought to my attention that there are Holyrood numbers from the new BMG / Herald poll - and they're extremely healthy for the Alba Party.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 44%
Labour 22%
Conservatives 21%
Liberal Democrats 8%

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 33%
Labour 22%
Conservatives 20%
Greens 10%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Alba 3%

That's the first time Alba have been above 2% in any poll from any firm since the 2021 Holyrood election, and confirms the impression of other recent polls that Alba have recovered from a very rocky patch in the latter half of last year when they were barely registering.  One explanation for the rebound is probably the determination of Alba members to keep the party visible.  Certainly anyone who travels on the M80 between Glasgow and Stirling will be reminded in a very in-your-face way that Alba is still very much around.

Again, it looks like the SNP might be suffering a bit of a dip in popularity, although BMG's polls are so infrequent that it's hard to be sure.  I'd imagine Labour will be a bit underwhelmed by their own showing, because although they're in second place on both ballots, they haven't opened up a significant gap in the way they have on the Westminster results.  

And talking of the Westminster results, it turns out that the Herald reported the wrong numbers - a bit amateurish of them given that they commissioned the poll themselves.  Here are the correct figures...

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 42%
Labour 26%
Conservatives 19%
Liberal Democrats 6%
Greens 4%
Reform UK 1%

So not as bad for the SNP as we originally thought, although 42% is still unusually low for them.  And Labour's showing is also better than we were led to believe - placing them roughly where they were at the time of their mini-recovery in the 2017 general election (although the SNP's lead over Labour is still bigger than it was in 2017, which is absolutely crucial in a first-past-the-post election).

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To catch up with my Scot Goes Popcast interview with Alba candidate Lisa Keogh, please click HERE (video version) or HERE (audio only).

9 comments:

  1. Take that John REDACTOR MAN Swinney and Ian BLOWHARD Blackford.

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    1. Independence For ScotlandApril 13, 2022 at 11:31 PM

      Imposter. Not got an original thought. Pathetic Numpty.

      Delete
  2. Game on for Alba, the only way is up!

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  3. I'm not an Alba member so it's not directly any of my business but I do think that the party is missing a trick at present.

    I'm told that Alba's organisational structure reflects that of the SNP being based only on electoral areas.

    If this is true Alba might gain by organising itself, while it is small, into local activist groups which campaign on all manner of local issues which have resonance in communities and coincide with party policy.

    The SNP is notoriously poor at this and in many areas almost ceases to exist between election campaigns. When/if we get another independence campaign whichever party has the boots on the ground will have significant influence on the political shape of our emerging, independent Scotland.

    An intelligent party following this approach can repidly reorientate itself to electoral areas when elections happen.

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  4. No Alba candidates standing in my ward. No Greens either. Just 2x SNP and a bunch of Unionists.

    Meh. :(

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    1. It is even worse in the Heldon and Laich ward in Moray. It is take your pick from anti Indy White Settlers and a Scot Nat cursed by association with Wokists. It is a spoiled ballot from me.

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  5. A break for WGDug observations, although they exist. This time it's Mr Ballot Box Scotland, someone whose previous comments make me imagine a person with a giant red pencil hovering to cross Alba from the list of poll choices:

    "Finally, a 3% share for Alba is the best they’ve seen since the election. I’d caution against their supporters being too buoyed by this – though I’m sure some highly suspect analysis will, ahem, pop up if it hasn’t already – as this is entirely within margin of error."

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    1. Oh lovely, he's a closet Scot Goes Pop fan!

      HI ALLAN!!!!

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    2. Oh, and Allan, while you're here, a gentle and totally non-pompous word of warning: "Please respect my project."

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