But on the other extreme are the "just trust Nicola" true believers, who presumably think that if we just sit back and relax, an independence referendum will be along in a jiffy. Well, maybe not quite in a jiffy, but "in due course, in the fullness of time, at the appropriate juncture". I can only suggest those people haven't been paying attention for the last four years. I was thinking back last night to an episode in early 2017, when Bella Caledonia summoned a number of bloggers and pro-indy new media people to a sort of summit in Edinburgh to "resolve our differences" in preparation for the independence referendum that Nicola Sturgeon had just called. It didn't really work out that way, because I ended up having a sit down argument with Angela Haggerty (she also clashed with another well-known blogger, who unlike me had the admirable knack of staying calm and retaining a beaming smile throughout!). But what's funny in retrospect is that, whatever our differences, the one thing that united us is that we were all taking it as read that an independence referendum was actually going to happen. It hadn't really occurred to anyone that Nicola Sturgeon's "announcement" would prove to be utterly worthless. Is there anything more tragic than devoting one's energies to "winning" an election or referendum campaign that you think is taking place but isn't?
In 2016, the SNP asked us for a mandate to hold an independence referendum in the event of Scotland being dragged out of the EU. We gave them that mandate. They didn't use it. OK, the pandemic would have made it difficult or impossible to hold a referendum between March 2020 and now, but that doesn't explain or excuse the inertia in the preceding four years. The most logical time to hold a referendum would actually have been before Brexit occurred in January 2020. And if anyone seriously believes a referendum would have been held last autumn if coronavirus hadn't intervened, they're deluding themselves.
The SNP also asked for a "triple lock mandate" for a referendum in the 2017 UK general election. They explicitly said that would be attained if they won a majority of the 59 Scottish seats. That's exactly what happened, but that mandate was dishonoured too - and what was particularly cynical was that the "triple lock" rhetoric was practically disavowed in the middle of the election results programme.
This month, the SNP asked us for yet another mandate for a referendum to replace the ones they've wasted. We gave them it (and I'm fully entitled to say "we" because I voted SNP on the constituency ballot and urged others to do the same), but I think even some loyalists now recognise that this is the end of the road in terms of asking for more and more mandates for exactly the same thing. As voters we've gone the extra mile for the SNP - we owe them nothing more, and it's now time for them to deliver on a referendum and to deliver on independence. If they come back to us in 2026 with more of the "make London listen" stuff, we can safely assume we've been taken for a ride.
The task at present for those of us who aren't in positions of power is not to re-win a mandate we already have, and it's not to win a referendum that is not taking place. You can persuade all the soft No's you like, but if those people never actually get the opportunity to vote Yes, the whole exercise is a monumental waste of time. No, the focus of our efforts must be to ensure that a referendum or equivalent democratic event actually occurs before the mandate expires in 2026. And that, frankly, means applying pressure on the SNP leadership to keep their word in this parliament in a way they didn't in the last.
That can be done externally by building up Alba, or it can be done internally via the SNP's own democratic structures. But one way or another, it has to be done.
Exactly.
ReplyDeleteInternal democracy in the SNP has been disconnected
ReplyDeleteWell said James. Yep, you probably did offend quite a few on "both sides", but you were honest and you stayed true to yourself, and true to Scotland. Nobody could fault you for that. Things aren't going to pan out the way people expect (they never do), but I'm glad you are continuing to give some support to ALBA. It is very important, now more than ever, that supportive blogs and Alex Salmond and a few other big hitters stay in the game. Yes it's great we still have an indy majority at Holyrood (nominally at least) but the SNP could be held hostage by the Greens, which could prove to be problematic in the medium term. The Greens will expect their pound of flesh for any support -they have to look strong and demanding to satisfy their own support base (many of whom are not exactly strong on indy) - at the expense of the SNP methinks. Unlike some, I do think Nicola genuinely believes in independence, she just doesn't seem to have the nerve to push it hard right now. I was very much in favour of gradualism until recently. I believe gradualism has served us well but its usefulness is wearing thin now IMO. It's time for a hard push to get us over the line, whatever it takes. Does Nicola have what it takes? Mmmmmmmmmm.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. gradualism has its place, but that's somewhere in a pre Brexit, pre covid world. Its time to move.
ReplyDeleteWell said. I can't see how anyone could disagree with any of that.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to be immediately critical of our new Cabinet, but if Shirley Anne Summerville is going to broadcast her supporting reasons for decisions made as Education Secretary over the next little while she had better sharpen up her skills. She seems to have started by telling us she 'had to isolate' because a family member was isolating as a close contact of a covid infected person. That's just wrong, although she could of course have been a bit sharper and told us she had 'chosen to isolate' because...
ReplyDeleteRegards pleasing no one I remember my time as an active Trades Unionist (shop steward/branch chairman) when management and the union members both hated me. I regarded it as evidence I was doing something right by seeing both sides. I agree that now is the time to try to raise Alba to put pressure on the SNP leadership as I have long thought the party is taking us for granted as did Labour for many years. Scotland aye.
ReplyDeleteSadly I think we have been taken for a ride, and been ridden too far for anything to now be effective. Sturgeon now has another 5 years now to do what she's been doing for the past 4, which is destroying the independence movement as well as helping Johnson shore up the union in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteThe past few years has not just seen a lack of any kind of work towards independence: it's seen the SNP turn viciously on those in the independence movement actually fighting for it (Salmond, Cherry, ISP, AUOB etc). It's seen deliberately divisive policies pursued with zealous aggression against any who disagree: and these policies will cut through the with general public over the next five years in a truly horrible way. With those people still having a firm grip on power both within the SNP and within government, and fully backed by the unionist media and UK government, there is no chance of internal democracy working in the party, and any attempt to build up Alba or ISP will be met with brutal hostility.
Over the past few years we have sat back and watched as The SNP allowed Brexit to happen while performatively whinging "we won't allow this!" They've allowed the UK government to set up offices in Glasgow and Edinburgh, they've put barriers up to those doing what they should have been (Cherry again, the People's S30).
I supported gradualism pre-Brexit, when I thought we were gradually building up our own institutions, eg the new tax and benefits agencies. Post Brexit, independence became critical. Yet in 2017, at the same time The SNP turned on the pro-indy movement, they also seemed to pull back in things like taking on devolved benefits. As of today, we no longer even appear to have a Cabinet Secretary for social security. We've sat and watched all this happen for the past 4 years. The next five will be watching them let the UK gov remove powers while carrying out the same performative whinging "We won't let them..." etc. I'm afraid having watched the last election I have zero confidence in people not just sitting back and cheering them on as they do it, as they have for the past four.
I think everyone is on tenterhooks wrt the calling for a referendum, because for the very first time, the SNP have been given a mandate by the Scottish people, to push for independence. Up until the election result, it was always unsure, how many people actually wanted independence. Now, there is no doubt. More than half of those who voted, voted for independence.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that the Yes family is divided into two camps - those who believe that Nicola Sturgeon wants independence, and those who think Nicola Sturgeon wants the SG to remain a devolved power.
If you belong in the first group, then it is the height of craziness to start a fight, just when we are almost there.
If you are in the second group, then it is the height of craziness to waste any more time on Nicola Sturgeon.
I reject a number of James' premises. Every time he talks about "we" gave the SNP a mandate ..... for whatever ...... the "we" in question were yes voters, and "we" were in the minority.
The "we" who have given Sturgeon a mandate at this election, are the majority of those who voted, and it is the first "real" mandate she has ever been given. I believe that she will act this time, and group 2 are going to have to eat humble pie. Their pie will be sweet, because it will mean a joyful thing.
If I as a member of the first group have to eat humble pie, it will be bitter for me, and every other yesser, including all those in group 2, becsuse we are going to have to dismantle the SNP and rebuild it, or replace it with Alba. Whichever, it is going to be a long and weary road to independence.
I have absolutely no problem with James for advocating for Alba, because unlike some Alba supporters, he isn't insane. Neither have I a problem with Paul Kavanagh advocating for the SNP, because unlike some Nicola worshippers, he isn't insane.
Thankfully, the insane village idiot has left the field to sulk under his bed, down in England. (Fingers crossed it is for real this time!)
On the subject of "rejecting premises", I'd have to reject the premise of your entire comment, Alex, because it's based on some seriously dodgy arithmetical claims. "Now, there is no doubt." What? "It is the first 'real' mandate she has ever been given." Eh?
DeleteFirst of all, the result on the popular vote in this election was a hell of a lot more complicated than you're making out - there was a majority for anti-independence candidates on the constituency ballot and a majority for pro-independence candidates on the list ballot. But even if we only look at the list ballot, that certainly was not the first time that a majority of the people of Scotland have voted for pro-indy parties. It happened in the 2015 UK general election, when the combined vote for the SNP and the Greens exceeded 50%. There's a case to be made that it also happened on the list ballot for the 2011 Holyrood election - the SNP, Greens, Margo MacDonald, the SSP and Solidarity between them had around 49.8% of the vote, which certainly exceeded the unionist vote - independents and neutrals held the balance.
Complicated and then some! As many as 40% of Green voters may vote NO, and 40% of Labour voters may vote YES in an indy ref. No supporters of any party can be claimed 100% either way. Life is never that simple. Mandates aside, voters have, and always will, participate in parliamentary elections for a wide variety of reasons. There is huge overlap in some parties (SNP & YES, Tories & NO) but it ain't 100%. Not now not ever. :)
DeleteThere was no point in calling a referendum when the polls said we would lose.
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect, that really is a monumentally daft comment. The referendum will be won or lost once the campaign is actually underway, and not before. Yes support was in the mid to high 40s at the time you're talking about - that could well have been a platform for victory. By the same token, a starting point of 60% for Yes could just as easily have seen us lose.
DeleteNope, totally bogus point - I suggest nobody wastes any further time on it.
I agree that NS must now become more assertive in pursuit of indyref2. But importantly the SNP need to actually start preparing the case: they have not lifted a finger in this direction during the last parliament, instead their general incompetence has probably shaved at least 5% off the possible YES vote. If they pushed on with popular radical policies now (like serious land reform, tackling grouse moor land use and so on) it would increase those in the middle that need to believe something better can be achieved.But do we have any confidence on the SNP doing anything radical? I certainly don't. Much more interesting to obsess over gender politics, right?
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to seeing the SNP's "economic case" that addresses the new situation post-brexit. I've not seen anything good from anyone else, including the folk clamoring for a referendum asap, so fingers crossed. Actually winning a referendum feels like a tall order imo, but people certainly seem very gung-ho on the internet about holding one asap.
ReplyDeleteBloody hell, man, if I recall correctly you didn't want to hold the first referendum either. If we'd followed your advice there'd still be 40 Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster, and quite possibly a Labour-led government at Holyrood too.
DeleteI mean, I suppose we could hang around for another thirty years to see if that mythical 'perfect moment' ever arrives, but some of us want independence in practice as well as in theory.
from a group that is "clamouring for a referendum"
Deletehttps://commonweal.scot/big-ideas
The hard work has been done. Thank goodness we had at least one serious pro-indy think tank while the sp sat on its hands or paid pro-market lobbyists like Wilson to promote their own right-wing agendas
You made your Eurovision request on Twitter a " only those mentioned" can reply.
ReplyDeleteOf course - I didn't want to wade through the usual sea of "I hate Eurovision" replies.
DeleteTHE SNP is an independence-would-be-lovely-as-long-as-long-as-it's-easy-to-get party. Can't blame the M.O.R SNP - they do their thing... but it's to no end if the SNP doesn't use every moment of this 5-year parliament working for indy. The SNP has done zero for indy since 2014
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone really understand why nicola sturgeon spent all that time trying to persuade england and wales that they should not have the brexit they voted for ?
ReplyDeleteI looked on amazed and thought to myself , she ought to be organizing a Scottish independence referendum not trying to change englands vote for brexit
I am still baffled why she did that.
Nikla is far more interested in power than independence. She has already started the backpedaling, and has ruled it for three or so years. She just doesn't demonstrate any conviction on the issue and her cohort are heard to argue that it won't happen unless the polls are favourable. And of course they never will be, if you refuse to keep the issue at the front of political debate. They didn't just fail to do that last time, they refused to allow their own members to discuss it openly.
ReplyDeleteThat tells you a lot about their enthusiasm and commitment to the cause, as well as the way they have stitched up their own party democracy. Nikla spent two years harassing Alex Salmond and spent a fortune in doing so. The SNP have 'lost' the fund explicitly earmarked for indy and have made feeble excuses ever since.
How can you trust her? She has commandeered institutions which in any democracy should be independent of the executive and issues orders which they meekly obey. She has become obsessed with her own power and ruthless about any legitimate challenge to it.
There will be no independence until she and her coterie, including her husband get off the gravy train they all eagerly live off. They are a middle class clique of do gooders without any political commitment, who hide behind a massaged media and the Scottish flag, busying themselves on 'initiatives', most of which are economic and social failures. But there is no opposition, so... nice little earner.
Fear not, James. Only five more mandates till Independence !!
ReplyDeleteIt's not the number of mandates that matters but the form of the mandate. what matters is what is being mandated. Previous mandates given to the SNP were self-evidently the wrong form of mandate. They did not mandate what was required. They were left unused because they could be. The right kind of mandate could not be left unused.
ReplyDeleteToo many people simply accepted the SNP's assurances about the nature of the 'commitment' that was being offered in their manifesto. They were taken in by the propaganda version of what the party was undertaking to do. Very few read the manifesto. And fewer still read it critically. When you bang on about the number of mandates you've given the SNP only for them to be forsaken it's like you're boasting about how often you've been duped.
What confuses me as to whether I should laugh or cry is when I see those who finally cotton on to the fact that they've been duped by the SNP tripping over themselves in their eagerness to be duped by Alba.
Mostly, I cry.
I think we should abolish all political parties and replace them with Peter A Bell. Adherence to the one true path cannot be attained any other way. How else are we going to get #Referendum2018?
DeletePeople need to stop thinking about an independence referendum as some sort of election campaign. It's not even close.
ReplyDeleteHaving a campaign will not change support markedly. People have been weighing this up for well over a decade now.
2011 came as a surprise, and some of the ~43% Yes in post 2011 polls panicked, knocking 10% off this. They came back on board slowly over the next few years as independence went from dream to a frightening to a real possibility, but in reality, the evidence suggests Yes increased by at best 1% per year 2011-2014. Now, over a decade on, our baseline Yes had finally exceeded 50%; the steady growth rate has been the same. The campaign has never stopped; the question has remained at the forefront of Scottish life.
Events will impact things, but not glossy leaflets, TV debates and door chapping; these will not do much. This isn't an election. It's a fundamental existential issue that has been brewing since the 1920's which will change the country for centuries to come.
Salmond must have rued the day he got that majority in 2011 as he would have known Yes was nearly impossible and that he'd have to step down when the referendum was lost. He didn't deliver iref1; Cameron called his bluff because he was rightly sure No would win.
Come on, that's really poor coming from you, you know better than that. Referendums all around the world typically display huge voter volatility, and 45-47% prior to the campaign even starting is a perfectly good platform for victory. Likewise, we could very easily lose from a starting position of 60%.
DeleteAs I said earlier, this point about "polls showing we would lose" is quite simply wrong. Demonstrably, irrefutably and totally wrong, and none of us should waste any further time on it.
Finally, could you refrain from using the C-word in comments? It really leaves me with a dilemma about whether to approve it.
I don't want to lose again and wait another 7-10 years. I'd rather bank that 1% a year until we are definitely over the line, even if it means holding on a year or two. Watching Yes fall away after the brexit vote was very depressing, even though I knew why it was happening.
DeleteI think we are actually there now, with no going back, but I'm nervous we might be a fraction short if folks get panicked.
And independence referendums show huge volatility? I'm not so sure James. I think the outcomes of these are generally very predicable if you look at the long term history and baseline support. Catalonia remains too Spanish and Quebec too Canadian. But then these are not quite comparable as they are not historic nations in the way that Scotland is.
And I am talking about the baseline, which is what we need to be over 50% for this to be a success, with no regrets or reversal.
Brexit was built on a pack of lies with folks voting on campaign buses. They got their 52%, but now folks regret it and would have voted differently in hindsight. However, they feel they must stand by the decision, even if it is a f'g disaster. And Brexit is an economic and social disaster that will end the UK. 2%+ of the population and countless businesses have already fled. 1/4 UK nations is already half way out the door with a new border down the Irish sea while another is preparing the ballot papers. We even have the Great British Rock opening it's borders to Spain and the EU while Brits need to show passports to visit. Whoop-whoop for that campaign and the votes it won. Was that really a success? I know it's not the same, but I hope you catch my drift.
Nope, when Scots vote on this, we want them to want it and no going back. That time and tide have brought us to this point. This is, after all, a century at least in the making, from 1979 to 1997 to now. 2014 was just a few years to early. The UK breaking up is the last remnants of the empire disintegrating. Brexit is part of that existential crisis. Our young people are just not British; they are Scottish now and Scotland will be born again ultimately because of this, not because of a few week campaign. That does not mean all the hard work of Yes campaigners is unimportant; nope, it is all part of the process. Symptom and cause. The SNP, Greens etc have not brought Scotland to this point, they have grown as Scots have brought Scotland to this point.
We do not want regrets with people voting to undo it at the next election. That or some sort of messed up brexit type stalemate leading to a similar constitutional disaster. All that is more likely if we get over the line with campaign fever and not baseline Yes support.
Right now the focus of everyone should be on trying to chat to those that might vote Yes to ease them over that final finish line. As I said in my swear containing post, I was pleased to find I (and the SNP by giving them the vote) helped create at least another 4 Yes voters (including an Alba voter) ahead of the election. I think that was more productive than Yes parties fighting over existing Yes voters.
Ok, sorry on the c-word; as you know, I am quoting someone else. I would never use that deeply misogynistic insult myself.
Ok, polls ahead of 1997 consistently showed Yes-Yes would win, and handsomely. It did.
DeletePolls 2011 to 2014 all consistently showed, on average, Yes would lose. Yes lost.
EUref polls in Scotland showed consistently that Remain would win comfortably. It won comfortably.
There was variance in these, outliers, swings back and forth, but the underlying trends all predicted the outcomes pretty closely.
Now polls over the last year+ suggest Yes might well win, that the 1%/year baseline rise since 2014 has taken us over the event horizon, but it's a bit close. This is a generational force that dates back to the 1920's through two devo refs and one 'too early' indyref as the empire declines / retreats to what was before. Brexit is England going through similar.
Why rush if we are now at or above 50% baseline, especially as that's what Scots want?
The 'let's rush headlong into a referendum asap party' just got 1.7% of the vote, while the 'let's move towards this steadily but not rush it' parties got close to 50%. If we want to carry voters with us, which tactic should we follow, like it or not?
For all their enthusiasm, Alba are out of touch with people. They are very much in touch with political geeks that visit blogs like this, but not with the average Scot.
I would love indy tomorrow, but I do not want to wait another 7-10 years because we lost by 0.5%. I want to march steadily forward to it so on voting day, the result is all but inevitably for yes. I think we are there now, and a year or so will give us padding. If polls hold at 50%+ and/or edge up, we're good to go. This gets us out of the pandemic too and the country back to some sense of normality. Also for people to see and realise the reality of brexit, which has been masked by the pandemic.
55% or more is readily achievable with some campaigning, even into the 60's if people think that Yes will actually win / has become inevitable and voting No will just cause things to take longer with more of a mess.
"Quebec too Canadian"
DeleteQuebec is not a helpful example for you because both Quebec referendums showed exactly the sort of voter volatility I was referring to. In 1980 the Oui vote collapsed over the course of the campaign, and in 1995 the opposite happened.
I had a look and the polls for Quebec 1995 were 50/50, with no having a narrow lead on average. A quick PoP gives 50.6% No, which is what happened.
Deletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Quebec_referendum#Opinion_polling
I really don't want that for us.
'Too Canadian' refers to the reason why Quebec isn't and is unlikely to become a fully independent country any time soon. Also, their referendums were not really for outright indy, but for sovereignty and a new relationship with Canada I understand. Catalonia is similar in some ways, but different in others. Neither are Scotland, which is an ~1200 year old kingdom in union. The world sees Scotland a country because it is; hence you compete against Scotland at the commonwealth games, Euro footie finals, 6 nations etc. Scotland is Scottish, but a declining British identity still hangs on in the post-war baby boomer generation and that is ultimately holding the UK together by a thread.
We don't want independence from a whim of volatility as that will be a grand mess like brexit, and could even be reversed in an election. But that's not what will happen, because the support for Yes we now have has been decades in the making, and this has continued since 2014 to take us to where we are now; a baseline that is likely now >50%. Scots (including new like my yes voting work colleagues from across the globe) are now outnumbering the brits in Scotland and that's not going to reverse. Time the vote right and we will be very sure of a Yes. It will just be how big.
IMO.