Thursday, April 22, 2021

YouGov poll points to big pro-independence majority in the new Scottish Parliament

These are apparently the Holyrood figures in the new YouGov poll, although so far I've only got a single tweet to go on, so hopefully it's accurate...

Constituency ballot:

SNP 49% (-1)
Conservatives 21% (-3)
Labour 21% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)
Greens 1% (-1)

Regional list ballot:

SNP 39% (-7) 
Conservatives 22% (-2)
Labour 17% (+2) 
Greens 10% (+2) 
Liberal Democrats 5% (-) 
Alba 2% (+2)

There are two key factors that ensure these numbers would translate into a large pro-indy majority.  Firstly, a very large lead for a single party on the constituency ballot effectively busts the Additional Member System, and the SNP lead has actually increased in this poll - although ironically that's due to an intra-unionist swing from Tory to Labour.  And secondly there's the strong performance of the Greens on the list, which will produce more returns in terms of seats than the SNP's own list vote *if* the constituency numbers are accurate and hold relatively steady for the rest of the campaign.  Unlike Alba, the Greens have had the big advantage of being included in the TV debates, and Patrick Harvie did particularly well in the STV debate and may have won over some new converts.

As for Alba, I've pointed out before that: a) parties have won a seat in Holyrood on as little as 2% of the national vote before, and b) polls are snapshots not predictions in any case.  Alba only need to be on 5% or 6% to get a decent number of seats, so there's still all to play for - even assuming YouGov have got it right.  Other firms have shown a higher Alba figure.

Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 67 (+4), Conservatives 27 (-4), Labour 19 (-5), Greens 11 (+5), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)

SNP: 67 seats
All others: 62 seats


Pro-independence parties: 78 seats (60.5%)
Anti-independence parties: 51 seats (39.5%)


More details and analysis to follow...

*  *  *

You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).  And if you find Scot Goes Pop's coverage of polls helpful and would like it to continue, I'm currently running a fundraiser HERE.


  1. Tonight I completed two Survation and one Panelbase poll with voting and independence intentions plus some other questions. The Panelbase supplementary questions were 100% commissioned by a pro-Independence client as they asked about Douglas Ross and his suitability to be First Minister after his comments on travelers and being a part-time referee. Of course I have no idea whether they are for public or private but I'm assuming the Panelbase one is for public.

  2. I went into the yougov website. The first question on the Scottish section was about Alex Salmonds suitability for public office. They load the dice from the start.

  3. Should the Greens now be counted as neutral (pro-referendum, but not pro-independence) after what Lorna Slater said about their manifesto, and the campaign material supposedly from their candidate in Ettrick Roxburgh and Berwickshire, which asks for "both votes Green to stop the SNP"?

    If they are trying to attract unionists concerned about the environment, they can hardly then participate in a "pro-indy majority" in the parliament.

    1. What did Lorna Slater say to no longer suggest the Greens are no longer pro-independence?

      Also, given these percentages, does the SNP get all of those 67 seats from constituencies alone?

    2. I think it was all but one, if I remember correctly.

  4. The scottish green party last year decided that instead of having one leader of the party they will now have two leaders , a man and a woman , fair enough , then they say that that they have a committee of seven others who will decide matters if the two leaders do not agree on something.
    This arrangement makes the possibility of the greens not supporting scottish independence much more of an unknown it will be interesting to see what the two leaders disagree on as they take part in parliamentary business.

  5. Heard Harvie on the radio this morning and he was pretty clear that he saw independence as essential to both post covid regeneration and pursuing green policies.