Thursday, April 22, 2021

New independence poll from Savanta ComRes

As we discovered earlier, the majority of Savanta ComRes independence polls in recent months have had some of problem with them, so it's difficult to know exactly what to make of the latest poll that's been published tonight.  But for what it's worth, here are the numbers...

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 48% (-2)
No 52% (+2)

Because this goes against the slight pro-Yes trend we've seen in a lot of polls recently, we should treat this result with caution until it's corroborated by at least one or two more polls.  There's always a chance that it might prove to be an outlier in terms of the trend.  That said, it's not at all unusual for the No vote to increase during an election campaign - although when that happens it tends to go unnoticed, because we're generally more interested in the party political voting intentions at that stage in the electoral cycle.  This time it's a bit different.

Why do election campaigns boost No?  It's probably because the opposition parties come after the SNP on independence, but the SNP don't respond in kind - they instead try to win on bread and butter issues.  So the anti-independence vote gets fired up but the pro-independence vote does not.  In this poll, the figures with Don't Knows included actually show Yes holding steady - the movement has been from Don't Know to No, which makes perfect sense.

Someone on Twitter claims to have seen the Holyrood voting intention numbers from this poll, but so far I can't find them.  Apparently they show the SNP falling short of a majority, but there also seems to be a YouGov poll suggesting the SNP are still on course for a majority.  I'll keep you posted as soon as I find out more.

UPDATE: The independence numbers from the YouGov poll are out - they're Yes 47% (-2), No 53% (+2), which lend support to the ComRes trend, although for the reasons I gave above, I don't think we should be overly alarmed - this has happened many times before in election campaigns.  What matters most at the moment are the Holyrood voting intention numbers - and I still can't find those.

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You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).  And if you find Scot Goes Pop's coverage of polls helpful and would like it to continue, I'm currently running a fundraiser HERE.

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