The new YouGov poll testing potential support for the Independent Group was mentioned on the previous thread, because unlike the recent Survation poll it shows Labour taking a substantial hit, with the Tory lead increasing from 8% on the standard question to 12% when the new group is offered as an option. The Independents themselves are hypothetically on 14% of the vote. However I don't think those are meaningful results for all sorts of reasons. Fieldwork preceded the three Tory defections, so it would seem logical that the hit Labour were taking before today might be more evenly split between Labour and Tory from now on. And the question in the poll that included the Independent Group made a song and dance about drawing special attention to the splitters, so that might have led more respondents to indicate support for them than would have been the case on a more neutral question. We won't really know the true level of support for the group until they become a fully-fledged party and can be included in polls on a normal basis.
Where the YouGov poll is perhaps more useful is in showing differences in the support for the Independent Group across different regions of the UK, and I don't think any of us are going to faint with amazement at the discovery that they're significantly less popular in Scotland than anywhere else.
Independent Group support by region:
London: 16%
South of England: 17%
Midlands/Wales: 11%
North of England: 15%
Scotland: 8%
I suppose theoretically that picture might change if one or two Scottish MPs like Ian Murray were to defect, but I have my doubts.
The results of the Scottish subsample where the Independent Group is given as an option appear to be roughly: SNP 39%, Conservatives 26%, Labour 13%, Independent Group 8%, Liberal Democrats 5%.
On the standard question without the Independent Group, the figures are: SNP 41%, Conservatives 29%, Labour 14%, Liberal Democrats 6%.
So certainly no sign there that the breakaway will give the SNP any greater headache in a first-past-the-post election for Westminster than they currently face. In a Holyrood election under proportional representation it might be a slightly different story, but will there be any space at all for this new group in the 2021 Holyrood election? Perhaps only, paradoxically, if they have established themselves as major players at Westminster by then.
There could be hope for you young James. You could report on the class struggle going on in France against Macron the chosen one by the bankers and ruling class who are attacking the working class conditions and public services. Or you can promote the EU and Scotland being subservient to them. There is no point in attacking British austerity and playing lip service to EU austerity.
ReplyDeleteAye, SNP 'attacking the [hard] working class* conditions' again this morning.
Deletehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47308528
The Scottish government's budget plans for the coming year are to be formally approved by the Scottish Parliament.
The budget will widen the gap between how much income tax higher earners in Scotland pay compared to the rest of the UK.
But it will also provide extra funding for education, the health service and infrastructure.
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*(c) Conservative & Unionist / UKIP
TARTAN TORIES PASSING ON TORY uh
DeleteMmmm. That aroysrs me.
DeleteWhy would I be staggered, James?
ReplyDeleteAs yet I have very little idea of what they stand for. I only know what they are against.
If you were a centrist voter in Scotland who wanted to stay in the EU, the SNP probably already has you covered. It's different in England - the Lib Dems would be the obvious place for those sorts of voters to park themselves, but the Lib Dem brand is still toxic from the 2010-15 government. Hence the new independent group vacuums up the support.
ReplyDeleteNah. There's still an opening in the market for centrist Remainers who think Scotland would turn into Mozambique without English largesse. Since the Lib Dems are dead, maybe the TIGs could cater to those folk.
DeleteIn the unlikely event that the Independent Group is anything more substantial than some form of purgatory one passes through before joining the Lib-Dems, I suspect that anyone standing on an Independent Group ticket would only split the Unionist vote and/or hinder tactical anti-SNP voting in a Westminster election.
ReplyDeleteScotland. Is. Not. a. Region. !
ReplyDeleteAlthough we're an ancient nation, Garry, by the actual meaning of the word we are also in fact a region of the UK, exactly as the UK is currently a region of the EU and the EU is a region of planet Earth. In this context, it's a literal definition, not in any sense a putdown.
DeleteSo England is also a region, not a country called UK,as they seem to think.
DeleteAs far as I understand it from various sources, the Infependent Group is not registered as a political party, but as a private company. They do not therefore have to disclose who is funding them or by how much. Interesting!
ReplyDeleteBlair and Soros mibbie to start with.
DeleteCordelia, there, regaling us with yet another of its conspiracy theories.
DeleteThought this was your headache jam rag week.
DeleteInteresting that the levels of support in North and South of England are very similar despite the big divide in Remain/Leave support in those areas.
DeleteMein Gott you Jock/Irish Nat sis are so quiet. You must have been doon the pub with the Green Brigades watching your Irish heroes getting gubbed.
ReplyDeleteDoorstep bottle. Hahaha. End of!
ReplyDeletePoor Cordelia. Screams at us when we laugh at it, screams at us for ignoring it. What a state.
ReplyDelete