Saturday, June 11, 2016

YouGov puts Leave back into the lead - just

This is probably why the Leave campaign were downplaying the ORB poll last night.  The new YouGov figures are actually comparatively good for Leave by the standards of the last three-and-a-half months, but if ORB had been bang on the money, you'd expect more than margin-of-error changes tonight.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 42% (-1)
Leave 43% (+1)

Those numbers make it less likely that there has been very recent further movement towards Leave, because the Leave lead is actually three points lower than in the last-but-one poll from YouGov.  It could well be that Leave's 'true' lead (according to the YouGov methodology) has been steady at around 1% or 2% over the last ten days or so, but that sampling variation resulted in Remain being slightly overstated in the last poll, and slightly understated in the last-but-one.

An Opinium poll tonight adds to the sense that nothing much has changed over the last week -

Remain 44% (+1)
Leave 42% (+1)

Although that's an online poll, it's not quite as good for Remain as it appears - Opinium made a methodological adjustment before last week's poll that effectively made their weighted sample much more similar to a phone poll sample.  So it's not surprising that they're now producing the sort of results that you might expect from phone polls, ie. on the more Remain-friendly end of the spectrum.

Having said that, a 2% lead isn't all that great for Remain by normal phone poll standards, so what we need now is a real phone poll to see whether the gap really has narrowed to that extent, or whether the remarkable ICM phone poll of ten days ago was a fluke.  Incredibly, there's only been one other phone poll since then - it was from ORB, and it wasn't much use because the turnout-filtered headline figures showed a completely different trend from the unfiltered figures.

The Telegraph are splashing on a separate YouGov question which supposedly shows huge support for Britain adopting the Norway model, ie. leave the EU, return to EFTA, remain in the EEA, and retain free movement of people and a fair chunk of EU regulation.  However, yet another question produced a directly contradictory result, because the public were split 41-41 on whether a post-Brexit government should prioritise the retention of the single market or a reduction in immigration from the EU.  Only the former option is at all consistent with the Norway model.

* * *



Remain 45.0% (n/c)
Leave 45.5% (-0.3)


Remain 42.9% (n/c)
Leave 44.9% (-0.7)


Remain 47.0% (n/c)
Leave 46.0% (n/c)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last two weeks. The online average is based on nine polls - four from YouGov, two from ICM, two from Opinium and one from ORB. The telephone average is based on three polls - two from ORB and one from ICM.)


  1. Events in Marseille might be about to overtake it all. French Media now calling on UEFA for Ingerland to be banned from the footie. Got to love that kind of Love Bombing!

    UKOK Press and Media and Brit Tories of all colours are now reaping what they have sown.

  2. These are still scary figures for those wanting to remain in Europe.

    There is an assumption by many that the 'no change' option often holds up on the day.
    But that might not apply when most of the media are supporting a Brexit. The tabloids will go into overdrive with British/English nationalism as the day approaches, whereas there is no great passion for the EU.
    And the most bigoted old Tories are most likely to go out and vote.

    I would hoping for at least a 5 point STAY lead in the polls going into polling day.

    If there is a leave vote, I wonder if Cameron will propose another referendum to give backing for a Norway style deal if that is negotiated. Plenty might have second thoughts if the UK has to retain freedom of movement anyway for access to the single market.

  3. As with the independence referendum postal voting might be enough to swing a narrow enough margin in the other direction. Pensioners whohave retained a postal vote or workers in the EU might be far more inclined to vote Remain if they think their right to claim a pension or work will end if laws regarding freedom of movement also end.

    The increase in postal voting from outwith the area being polled has to have an impact on the accuracy of telephone and face to face polling.

    1. I never understood why more people don't postal vote. It's a hell of a lot less hassle, I've been doing it for about 8 years or so now. Tick box, put envelope in the post, done.

      Way easier than queuing up at a polling station, especially on a workday.

    2. Postal voting is far too open to fraud. It should only be available with written proof from a doctor that you can't vote in person.

    3. In years past, postal voting was very limited but we still had turnouts over 80%.

    4. Well my wife works shifts that mean she's out of the house before polls open and doesn't get back until they're about to close. Then you've got oil rig workers and others who can't get to the polls due to work commitments. In an ideal world that should all balance out or there would be so few postal votes that it doesn't matter. However given that postal votes are just thrown in with the rest we don't know if that's true. We can infer it when we compare exit polls with election results. One post referendum survey was interesting in that if it was accurate then if you counted only voters in Scotland the result was far closer than 45/55.

  4. 250,000 net migration per year up to 2036.....the debate has gotten extremely racist in a short space of time.

    It will work as well. The people are too stupid to realise the pensions and population issues we have.