In the comments section yesterday, Calum Findlay bemoaned the fact that there have been very, very few full-scale Scottish polls giving voting intention for the EU referendum. That's left us flying blind to some extent, because public opinion throughout the UK seems to have been moving pretty fast in recent weeks, and we've only been able to guess whether it's been moving in Scotland too, and if so, whether it's been happening at a faster or slower rate. Today's new full-scale Scottish poll for STV (conducted by Ipsos-Mori via telephone with no expense spared!) finally answers those questions, and should largely assuage any fears that Remain can be caught north of the border.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? (Ipsos-Mori, telephone, Scotland only)
Remain 58% (-8)
Leave 33% (+4)
That's pretty much as I would have expected - it would have been naive to think that Scotland was immune to the Brexit surge, but the Remain lead was so enormous to begin with that the swing would have had to be much, much greater north of the border before there was any chance of the race looking even vaguely tight.
On the rare occasions when different polling firms have conducted full-scale Scottish polls close together, they have sometimes produced wildly different estimates of the Remain lead - for example, in late April, Ipsos-Mori put the gap at 37 points, but Panelbase said it was just 24. That can presumably be attributed to the telephone/online divergence witnessed throughout the UK, and which now seems to have either diminished significantly or (if ICM are to be believed) vanished altogether. But we can't totally exclude the possibility that Ipsos-Mori are overstating the Remain lead, perhaps because Scottish Leave voters feel uncomfortable about admitting their intentions to a telephone interviewer. (You could argue the case that a Leave vote is more 'taboo' here than it is in England.) Even if there's something in that, though, a 25 point lead gives us a pretty decent margin for error. Remain have in-built advantages over the coming week - if there's a late swing, history suggests it's somewhat more likely to be towards the status quo, and Ipsos-Mori show that undecided voters are leaning towards Remain. Taking all of that together, it now seems almost impossible to imagine that Remain won't win in Scotland, and probably by a decent (if not necessarily overwhelming) margin.
As was the case in the (relatively) recent full-scale Scottish polls from ICM and TNS, respondents were asked whether they supported a second independence referendum in the event of Brexit. This time the result was different -
Agree there should be a second independence referendum within two years in event of UK voting Leave with Scotland voting Remain? (Ipsos-Mori, telephone, Scotland only)
Agree 47%
Disagree 45%
Someone has pointed out in the comments section below that the STV website's reporting of this finding is very misleading. I'd go further than that, actually - I think it's absolutely bloody disgraceful. They've effectively presented 'don't knows' and 'neutrals' as people who disagree with a second referendum, and claimed that "a majority of Scots do not back a second referendum in the event of the UK as a whole voting to Leave but Scotland voting to Remain in the European Union". I mean, WHAT THE HELL?! If anyone had tried to spin the ICM and TNS polls as showing that "a majority of Scots do not oppose a second referendum in the event of Brexit" (which technically would have been an accurate statement), they would have been greeted with a chorus of helpless laughter.
Mr Aidan Kerr, have a long, hard look at yourself in the mirror, and ask yourself why you've written the article in that way. This poll shows narrow SUPPORT for a second independence referendum in the event of Brexit. The numbers speak for themselves - you can see them, I can see them, the dogs on the street can see them. I trust we're not going to witness any repeat of this nonsense on the TV news bulletin tonight - and if we do, serious (and fully justified) questions about bias are going to have to be asked.
I should bemoan things more often! As I suspected, there has been a swing to Leave in Scotland but Remain are still way ahead. I probably shouldn't have been concerned about turnout as well, as this poll has remain voters more likely to vote.
ReplyDeleteWill be very interesting to compare this to the results of the Ipsos Mori GB poll which is due today as far as I know. Their last GB roll had 60/40 for Remain, I'm expecting a huge swing towards leave, but the question is whether it will be more friendly for Remain like ComRes or better for leave like ICM.
I see STV are putting a difference spin on the question of the 2nd referendum - very misleading http://stv.tv/news/politics/1357445-stv-poll-leave-campaign-gaining-ground-in-scotland/
ReplyDeleteYeah, It's pretty dodgy to count "Undecideds/Don't knows" as "No's"
DeleteThe 2 year timespan adds another element.
There may well be another 5% or so who want another indyref but regard the best timing as being around 4 or 5 years.
Even if it complicates seamless EU membership being negotiated.
Perhaps the EU question should be punted down the road to a separate decision after independence.
Given the other data on peoples fears of economic and financial damage in case of Brexit is there possibly an element of Indy supporters assuming the Scottish margin is so huge they can vote leave as a tactic to engineer indyref 2 ??
ReplyDeleteAnon it was a disgraceful biased spin STV put on the second indy question. They said a majority don't support it. The last time I checked 47 was a bigger number than 45! Leaving out the don't knows 50/50 leaves a vote in favour of 51 to 49!
ReplyDeleteIf Brexit. Then all these fear stories the tories and labour have been peddling leaving the Eu will repeated for our ref. If rUK not in Europe and tariffs. Then would be between Scotland and rUK. Fear stories x10. And sadly the SNP have been going along with the project fear for this referendum.
ReplyDeleteI would tend to disagree there. The SNP have put forward a positive case. Google the wee bleu book.
DeleteI think Brexit will push enough Scots into action to get us over the line. Scotland will be outraged and disenfranchised if we vote 55 plus to stay, and then get taken out of the EU. The Tories will split and the country will be ungovernable for quite a while. Boris taking over the reigns is the end of the UK.
ReplyDeleteIt will be good if we get at least 55% voting for Remain.
ReplyDeleteWee Aidan is a quick learner in the ways of Scottish hackery. Of course he's still a bit too green to realise that obvious stuff like this just makes him look a silly wee tit to anyone who thinks about it for more than two seconds.
ReplyDelete'a majority of Scots do not oppose a second referendum in the event of the UK as a whole voting to Leave but Scotland voting to Remain in the European Union'
It's worth pointing out that Scots who want a second indyref in the result of Brexit, need to vote Remain, whatever the polls say. Because if we don't have a good majority of Scots voting to stay in the EU, then there's no argument for indyref2. If people vote Leave, and this brings the Scots Remain majority down closer to 50/50, then they can argue that half, or almost half, got what they wanted. The more Remain votes Scotland has, the stronger the case for indyref2.
ReplyDeleteThe Stv bias here is disappointing. They had been pretty fair until now, except for Daisley, who keeps on distorting everything and trying to stir up hatred. I had thought that Kerr's attempt to portray the constitutional question in Scotland as "Ulsterisation" as just ill-judged and naïve, but I guess there was more to it. Sad.
I'm surprised by the support for another indyref within two years of a Brexit vote. I am an ardent Indy supporter, but I don't want another indyref so soon. I've just spent two exhausting years of my life fighting for independence. I need a break. And I think we'd risk losing if it's so soon. I want indyref 2 in 2021, so I'd have voted No in that STV poll.
(Saying that, if we HAVE to have another one so soon, I suppose I'll roll the sleeves up and get to it.)
Disreporting Jackie will start pumping out the Brexit Propaganda now. It is their idea of we are all the same as in the deep shit together.
ReplyDeleteDisreporting Jackie should be on Rip Off Britain Holidays,with the other scraggy auld burds.
DeleteShe certainly is scraggy. She looks like an old crow.
DeleteWhat she looks like is irrelevant. What matters is what she thinks/says - which is quite enough to damn her by itself.
DeleteYes Iain the Saming technique! I remember that from the Referendum! But we voted for Brexit as the UK remember they will say! We are just like Humberside or Yorkshire voting stay and the RUK voting leave, regional status for Scotland. Except the UK is Scotland and England, both nations in their own right. One nation in the UK decides on behalf of every other. So the Brexiters cannot argue that the EU denies them their say on the one hand and then deny Scotland it's different opinion.
ReplyDeleteRemember we are in pre ref mode. Post ref mode will be totally different. Sturgeon is not showing her cards until after the referendum. The SG will go on the attack following Brexit mark my words there will be indy ref 2.
Mein Gott the Nat si Yellow Tories, Blue Tories, Labour, Libs and Greens all shiting themselves if we Brexit. Angus Robertson was doing his best for the so called project fear in Parliament today. The Nat sis just do not know who will provide the meal ticket if we leave. Vote oot and watch this gravy train fall like a pack of kerds.
ReplyDeleteMy goodness, you are on form this evening! If I were you, I'd put some more water in whatever you're drinking.
DeleteHe is just sick in the head.
DeleteI heard you shagged an Otter, GWC.
DeleteSmashed it right up its bunghole and now you have a fishy cock.
SNP and other supporters of Scottish independence are playing into the hands of the right wing Britnats if they vote to leave the EU . Their votes will not be counted as either a Scottish vote or a tactical exercise but will be used to prop up the English Brexit vote and thus deny the need for indyref 2 . The time for independence supporters to vote to leave the EU is when Scotland is independent .
ReplyDeleteI have some doubts about that line of argument.
DeleteIt seems spot on to me :)
DeleteI agree. James, seriously, one vote arguably doesn't count for much but if we all thought that nobody would vote and nobody would even bother making up their minds.
DeleteDon't risk a Scottish Remain vote that isn't high enough to be portrayed as a convincing majority. Bill is right on this one.
I take an entirely different view, Rolfe, and I must say that I think 'risk' is the wrong word in this context. If the tactical objective is a UK Leave/Scottish Remain, then every single person in Scotland is simultaneously voting both for and against that outcome. That's simply a fact, and there's no way of avoiding it. The UK result looks like it could be very close (and I would still say Remain are slightly more likely to win), whereas the Scottish result looks pretty clear-cut. If that wasn't the case, and if Leave had a big UK lead, there would be overwhelming logic for independence supporters to vote Remain, but that isn't where we are. A Remain win of 65% to 35% in Scotland coupled with a Remain win of 50.1% to 49.9 % across the UK isn't going to get us a second independence referendum, but a Remain win of 63% to 37% in Scotland coupled with a Leave win of 50.1% to 49.9% across the UK could just do the trick. That's the dilemma, and I have to say I think the likes of Bill and 'Sales - Select Wallpaper' are in danger of losing sight of the fact that Scottish votes do contribute directly to the overall UK outcome. We aren't having our own separate referendum here.
DeleteAs I've said before, the problem with tactical voting this time is not that it can't or won't work, but rather that the side-benefits of Brexit for the independence movement may not actually be important enough to compensate for the major downsides of being stuck outside the EU if we don't get independence. That's why I'm still in two minds.
We now have the data tables:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-pom-euref-june-2016-tables.pdf
One interesting piece of data in the tables confirms what I suspected:
OVERALL:
Remain: 64% Leave: 36%
URBAN:
Remain: 68% Leave: 32%
RURAL:
Remain: 50% Leave: 50%
I'm guessing that leave support is concentrated in areas with fishing industries. On those kinds of figures, Western Isles, Orkney, Shetland, Highland, Moray and maybe Aberdeenshire could all return substantial votes to leave.
That would indicate that Urban may be more dependent on benefits as opposed to hard working Rural people.
DeleteThose are where the little English settlers live.
DeleteIts rich having someone employed by the state to waste everyone's time here moaning about people wasting taxpayers money.
How do you know where they the English live doktor Eichmann!
DeleteIt could also be because of isolation: easier to canvass, leaflet, communicate etc. in urban areas than the remote islands & highlands who rely on traditional media for their information.
DeleteOf those who had an actual opinion, on whether there should be a 2nd IndyRef if there is a Brexit vote 51.1% said YES so a majority of those with an opinion one way or the other are IN Favour of IndyRef2. So not just 'misleading' information from STV but downright LIES!
ReplyDeleteSTV going for the "only a pitiful 25.8% voted SNP" school of reporting there.
ReplyDeleteHey, GWC2, you like that Soviet Rural 5 year plan crap, don't you? Just like you approve of the Soviets mass murdering Polish Soldiers, Policemen and Civilians and going on to systematically rape German women.
ReplyDeleteWe are talking about Brexit not your fantasy about raping women. Now do get on board Nat si fash you are not in the Camps.
DeleteNah, it's not strictly a lie. Less than half of people surveyed said they wanted a second referendum. The fact that less than that said they didn't is relevant information that ought to be highlighted, but it doesn't technically make the headline false. However, it's a bit like the argument that only 30-odd percent of Scots want independence because there wasn't a 100% turnout in the referendum. It's kinda meaningless, but unionist troll journos gonna troll. We've just got to live with it. They'll see the reality soon enough if the projected England Out/Scotland In result comes to pass.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, I think it's worth noting that the quietude of the campaign up here should be warning though - love of the EU is not going to win us our independence. The most we can hope for is that with Boris and chums too busy negotiating England's exit, they won't have the time or stomach for a fight with a Scotland that, in their hearts, they've already lost. At the same time, Labour don't have the resources or the fight in them for another campaign like last time, at least not without a shitload of Tory money. It will fall to Ruth Davidson to lead the No campaign and while she can dogwhistle all she likes to the extreme British nationalist urges of some, more and more Labour voters will be thoroughly turned off. With a weapon like the Wee Black Book in our back pockets, we can make sure the lies they told last time can't work a second time and hopefully we can be a wee bit more forceful in putting down things like the pension scares. There should be a mailing to every pensioner in Scotland assuring them that the UK government will continue to pay their pensions regardless, just as if they moved to Spain or Canada or Outer Mongolia. (We can also use that to point out some of the massive cost savings the SG will make on independence, along with the bit where we keep the pound without a currency union and explain that the UK Government accepted all debt liabilities because we always said we wouldn't take on any debt payments without that currency union.) I sincerely hope the Scottish Government and the SNP are right now setting about ways to develop a Scottish Constitution so that we can address other important issues like our relationship with Europe (do we REALLY want to be a part of this club or are we just supporting it because the English don't?), the monarchy and so on. Those are the questions that I think a lot of existing nationalists want answered. We need to be confident in our own arguments before we set about trying to win over another 10% of our compatriots.
"Nah, it's not strictly a lie."
DeleteSigh. Nobody said it was "strictly a lie", so you're rebutting a point that no-one has made. It was the sort of ultra-extreme spin you'd expect to see in a Labour or Tory press release, not on a news article from a broadcaster that has a legal duty to be strictly impartial in its reporting.
As I pointed out, the ICM and TNS polls showed the exact opposite result - very narrow opposition to a second referendum in the event of Brexit. It would have been "not strictly a lie" to say that the real story of those polls was that the majority of Scots "did not oppose a second referendum" (by lumping in Don't Knows with supporters of a referendum), but it would have been outrageously misleading.
There is no excuse here - no excuse whatever.
I agree that it's crappy reporting, but that's the magic of polls. You can twist them to suit whatever case it suits you to make. Like I said, they'll find out soon enough that twisting the numbers doesn't actually make them right. But Northside Raymie above did call it a "downright lie." I'm just a pernickety bastard and I don't like us saying anything we can't back up 100%. And never forget that our friends at Westminster have been known to use percentages of the whole electorate rather than of actual voters on major constitutional questions before now. It wouldn't surprise me at all if this ended up being another one of those times. :-/
DeleteGreat post and good questions - is anyone in the SNP leadership actually thinking seriously about such issues? Apparently not.
DeleteNah, it's not strictly a lie.
DeleteI'd say it is, actually: a lie by omission. By leaving out the fact that the "majority" who do not back a second referendum are in fact two distinct groups (those who oppose, and those undecided) it gives a misleading impression of a binary that doesn't exist.
I sincerely hope the Scottish Government and the SNP are right now setting about ways to develop a Scottish Constitution so that we can address other important issues like our relationship with Europe (do we REALLY want to be a part of this club or are we just supporting it because the English don't?)
The SNP have been pro-EU since 1988, back when support for the EU was high across the board in the UK, and long before the Eurozone crisis and immigration changes led to the current rise in Euroscepticism. Heck, the SNP were pro-EU years before UKIP even existed! There was nothing to be gained independence-wise in being pro-EU to be "different from the English" back then.
Especially since, until the last couple of weeks, almost all evidence suggested the English do support EU membership.
DeleteLet's face it the rural areas like the Highlands and borders are overun with toffs from little England. That partly explains the big leave vote.
ReplyDeleteDeportation iz tae good fur dem English. We need tae stopthem breedin in Sconie Boatland.
DeleteThey're nearly all of retirement age. They move up here knowing they will get the free personal care for the elderly without having to flog all their worldly goods to pay for it. The perfect example of economic migrants.
DeleteJames, can you name anyone from this UK establishment who were rocked our did you just make it up?
ReplyDeleteIs English not your first language?
DeleteHave you considered letting the recipient answer a question? Or do you think James is an idiot!
DeleteGWC2 You seem to have developed a fantasy about the FM being a Nazi who doesn't wear knickers. Weirdo.
ReplyDeleteLet me report on the 2014 referendum, STV style. In shock news, 56% of registered voters did NOT support "no".
ReplyDelete(They got only 44% of the potential vote once you account for the 18% who didn't vote.)
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ReplyDelete