Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Dramatic Survation online poll confirms the telephone findings : there is now a majority for independence

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation, online, 24th-28th June)

Yes 53% (+5)
No 47% (-5)

As this is an online poll, the percentage changes above are measured from the last directly comparable Survation online poll back in April.

Although the figures are almost identical to the Survation telephone poll from a couple of days ago, they're still significant, because there was never any guarantee that an online poll would produce the same result.  Remember that the relatively small number of polls to have put Yes in the lead since the indyref have been disproportionately 'real world' polls (telephone or face-to-face), and most have been unweighted by recalled indyref vote.  Survation said that they decided against weighting their phone poll by 2014 vote because they found evidence of false recall, but that doesn't seem to have been an issue in today's poll - meaning this is the best ever result for Yes in a poll weighted by indyref vote (from any firm).

Incidentally, the result is even closer to being identical to the telephone poll than it appears at first glance, because No have been flattered by rounding - it's actually Yes 53.5%, No 46.5%.  This time, though, there's a reasonably clear majority in favour of actually holding a second indyref -

Following the result of the UK's referendum on membership of the European Union, where the UK voted to leave, which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?

Scotland should hold a second independence referendum : 47%
Scotland should not hold a second independence referendum : 42%

And perhaps more significantly, there is overwhelming support for Nicola Sturgeon's view that it would be "democratically unacceptable" for Scotland to be dragged out of the EU against its will...

Following the result of the UK's referendum on membership of the European Union, where the UK as a whole voted to leave but Scotland voted to Remain, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland faced the prospect of leaving the EU. To what extent to you agree or disagree with the comments made by the First Minister?


Although the fieldwork dates make it look like this poll is more up to date than the others we've seen since Thursday, the nature of online polls means that most participants are likely to have responded to the survey invitation on Friday or Saturday (unless Survation staggered the invitations).  So we'll still have to wait and see whether the new support for independence holds up once the dust settles a little - although, as I've said before, there'll be no real "getting back to normal" on Planet Brexit.

*  *  *

Don't all faint with amazement at once (some of you might be needed to fill vacancies in the Shadow Cabinet), but it appears that the Liberal Democrats have said something profoundly hypocritical.  They have announced that they will go into the next general election with a manifesto commitment to overturn the result of the Brexit referendum - and that's not dependent on any material change of circumstances, but simply on the fact that the Leave campaign told lies.  That's EXTRAORDINARY.  It comes from the same party that denounced the SNP in 2014 for even daring to raise the possibility of a second independence referendum if there was an extreme change of circumstances such as Scotland being dragged out of Europe, and indeed Nick Clegg infamously described Alex Salmond as being like a Japanese soldier in the jungle who didn't know the war was over.  And yet if the Lib Dems have their way, there could be a second EU referendum within just a couple of years without anything having changed AT ALL.

Any intellectually coherent Liberal Democrat case against a second independence referendum has now been obliterated.  If the winning side telling lies is a good enough excuse for a repeat referendum, the second indyref should have taken place on 19th September 2014.

*  *  *

There has been a lot of talk in recent days about devising a model that would allow Scotland, Gibraltar and possibly Northern Ireland to remain part of both the UK and the EU.  Here are a few reasons why that is very unlikely to happen -

1)  Even if England and Wales received Greenland-style exemptions from the treaties, the United Kingdom itself would almost certainly have to remain a member state of the European Union - and it has just voted to Leave.  Continued membership would arguably only be a technicality, but the triumphalist Brexiteers still wouldn't stand for it.

2) It would be almost impossible to resolve the dilemma of whether Northern Ireland should be in the UK's "EU zone" or "zone libre", because its government is split.  The DUP are likely to take the view that leaving the EU is a UK-wide decision and that Northern Ireland - regardless of how it voted - must leave along with the rest of the UK.

3) In many ways, Scotland would become a de facto independent country anyway.  To reverse the catchphrase of the American revolution, you can't have representation without taxation, and so if only Scotland and Gibraltar were contributing to the EU budget, it logically follows that the Scottish and Gibraltarian governments would control the UK's vote in the Council of Ministers, and would also be responsible for determining the UK's negotiating position on future treaties or treaty amendments.  That's an enormous power that has thus far been reserved for sovereign governments, and in practice would presumably be wielded by the Scottish Government in consultation with Gibraltar (given the huge disparity between the populations, it's hard to see how Scotland and Gibraltar could be on a completely equal footing).  Can anyone imagine London agreeing to that?

4) There would have to be a real border between Scotland and England.  That would be the case even if Boris Johnson gets his miracle "Norway minus" deal - because even that would involve restrictions on freedom of movement, but only within the UK's "zone libre", ie. England and Wales.  So movement between Scotland and England would have to be controlled just as much as movement between England and France.  People will understandably be inclined to think - if all this is going to happen anyway, what is the point in Scotland not becoming formally independent?

*  *  *

I don't think words can adequately convey the contempt I increasingly have for the Labour plotters and their increasingly cowardly attempts to depose Jeremy Corbyn by increasingly undemocratic means while using the word "increasingly" as much as humanly possible.  There is a very simple rule that allows the incumbent leader to be challenged if an alternative candidate receives 50 nominations, so if Corbyn's opponents really thought they had the support of the wider party, they would have got on and done that, instead of trying to bypass the membership altogether by handing Corbyn a revolver and telling him to do the "decent thing".  This is eerily similar to the Lib Dem coup against Charles Kennedy in 2006, when the plotters still weren't satisfied even after Kennedy resigned - they refused to call off the dogs until Kennedy changed his mind about standing in the subsequent leadership election, because they knew the membership might well give him a renewed mandate.  I just hope Corbyn doesn't follow Kennedy's example by eventually giving in to the bullying and blackmail.

There's a line that sticks in my mind from the 1990s TV series Sharpe -

"All you have to do to hold off the French is stand, and fire three rounds a minute.  Now, you and I know that you can fire three rounds a minute, but the question is - can you stand?"

Which is another way of saying that Corbyn's chances of seeing off the coup largely depend on his own calmness and resolve.  If he can avoid getting caught up in the Westminster bubble narrative that insists his position is "increasingly" untenable, there's no reason why he can't hang on - especially if the overrated Angela Eagle is the sole challenger.


  1. Holyrood VI figures are interesting -

    VI for Holyrood – LTV and DK removed – (change from May election in brackerts)

    SNP 50% (+3.2% : Con 21% (-1.5%) : Lab 18% (-4.9%) : LD 8% (nc) : Green/Other 4%

    SNP 41% (1.1%) : Con 20% (-2.6%) : Lab 16% (-3.2%) : LD 7% (-1.7%) : Green 12% (+5.0%) : Other 5%

    Unionist parties all down. Pro indy parties up.

    1. How low can you go?June 29, 2016 at 2:05 PM

      They keep thinking it can't get any worse for them.
      They'll keep getting proven wrong.

  2. Boris Gump and the BrexitearsJune 29, 2016 at 2:03 PM

    Clive Myrie ‏@CliveMyrieBBC · 18 hours ago

    Just heard that of a woman who voted Brexit to send back "'the immigrants," didn't realise it jeopardised her bro-in-law who'd married a Croatian woman and had set up a business over there. Didn't understand free movement went both ways #BrexitVote


    Definitely NOT an isolated occurrence. Hearing it time and time again now.

  3. Tables show Yes: 53.5% No: 46.5%, just a whisker below being rounded up to 54% . Also shows a majority for another referendum and SNP support increasing.


    This corroborates the Ashcroft poll (64-36) as to how SNP voters split (65-35) in the EU referendum. This poll suggests the extra Brexit support compared to the average came from Tories (42% for Brexit).

    The independence question gives Yes a 46-50 lead (13% undecided). The only problem from a Yes point of view is that the bigger chunk of those undecided voters are people who voted No in 2014. There is a fair bit of No -> Yes switch (17% of 2014 No), but there is a smaller number switching the other way (9% of 2014 Yes).

    I think the takeaway from these polls is that the Brexit vote has given a clear boost to independence support of about 5-6 points, but not enough to be sure of winning if one was to be called (ie if all of the "undecided" 2014 Nos went back to No).

    1. 46-40 with 13 undecided, of course, not 46-50.

    2. There is no certainty of winning on any figure - referendums are prone to much, much bigger swings of opinion than are typically seen in regular elections. Regardless of the Yes figure going into the campaign, it'll be in the campaign itself that independence is won or lost.

    3. Absolutely James! Can't be stated often enough.

      Also, something very important to factor in on any calculation: who will lead and run the NO campaign this time...?


    4. James Kelly: "Regardless of the Yes figure going into the campaign, it'll be in the campaign itself that independence is won or lost."

      Correct. And given that, there is much to commend in Sturgeon's strategy. An understanding with the EU that Scotland will be treated as the continuing state (no need to stand in line). Utterances already from cabinet minister, the Secretary of State for Scotland, Mundell, and other Tories, signal HMG will not try to block indyref2.

      Do not think there will be much trouble passing the necessary Section 30 enabling legislation if the Tories think Scotland's departure will advantage them electorally.

      Evidence that some of SLAB's MSP's and one MEP are beginning to crawl on all four legs toward the light in the hope that one day, in an independent Scotland, they may learn to walk upright, is encouraging.

      So, when EU tacit assurances are in place, a Section 30 is in hand, with Westminster in chaos, and SLAB fractured and clinically depressed, we should go for it even if we are less than even out the gate.

      We're never going to eliminate risk and the guff we hear about the inevitability of independence, is just that. "Inevitability" is only certainty in hindsight. The view expressed by some that we should wait "till it all calms down and we dot all 'i's and cross all 't's on the policy, is beyond asinine.

      We sell the prospect of a continuing state, welcomed by the world commonwealth of nations, with its own currency within the EU, free of the instruments of universal death (currently being driven around our most populated city), where the People are sovereign, and are guaranteed a more civil society, predicated on the principles of equality, community, and tolerance.

  5. Following the result of the UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union, where the UK as a whole voted to leave but Scotland voted to Remain, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that it was “democratically unacceptable” that Scotland faced the prospect of leaving the EU. To what extent to you agree or disagree with the comments made by the First Minister? (All respondents)

    Agree – 52% : Disagree – 33% : Neither/DK – 15%

    1. That's very important.

    2. I wouldn't read too much into that as a pro-indy statement, as it's a smaller percentage than the pro-EU vote at the referendum, so what it actually says is that some people in Scotland who voted remain are ok with being dragged out of the UK by England and Wales.

    3. Those of us on the indy side need to be aware that there is a significant body of people living in Scotland whose primary political loyalty is the UK. By definition, they see their democracy as being UK wide, just as we see it as Scotland.

      It's the 15% that we need to work on!

  6. At the end of the day, it will only be possible for Scotland to be a member of the EU if it is a self governing country.
    So, we have to decide what is for the best.
    1.--Self government within the EU. We will take a finantial hit initially, but that may be mitigated by company migration from south to north---perhaps substantial migration if it happens quickly.
    2.--Devolved government within the UK. We will take a financial hit that is unquantifiable in the long run, both as a concequence of trade losses, EU funding losses and the unknown actions of Westminster toward regional funding. Scotland has few friends in Tory OR Labour circles down south.

    1. Too little too lateJune 29, 2016 at 2:41 PM

      I can just imagine the skeletal remains of the Labour party and the tiny lib dem rump trying to come up with a Federal 'solution'.

      Might be one of the few things to give the Brexit 'planning' a run for it's money for sheer incompetence and head in the sand thinking.

      Maybe they can arrange for some sort of "vow" to help scots trust the effectiveness of such an arrangement in the face of Bojo and the tories obvious continued westminster misrule?

  7. Chaos as far as the eye can seeJune 29, 2016 at 2:32 PM

    Conor Pope‏@Conorpope 1h

    The Chakrabarti Inquiry into anti-Semitism in the Labour Party will be published tomorrow.

  8. Any info on which socioeconomic and age groups are actually changing to YES? I bet there are big differences in reactions between the main social/age groupings.

  9. Very accurate representation of voters. On the how did you vote recall in 2014 table, 55% were no and 44% yes.It's gone from 44% no to nearly 54% yes. So on the people polled alone this represents a 10% swing! It's fairly dramatic.

    1. Worth looking at whole sample (YY = Yes in 2014 : Yes now etc)

      NN 38%
      YY 37%
      NY 9%
      N? 8%
      YN 4%
      Y? 4%

  10. Boris Gump and the BrexiteersJune 29, 2016 at 3:30 PM

    This is well worth a read.

    Ben Judah‏@b_judah

    Have been running around the City of London last few days. Here's an update.

    Merkel and Brussels have outright already refused an EEA+ agreement that gives UK migration control, passporting and single market access.

    What is passporting? All banks registered in UK have a "passport" that allows them to do business with whole EU. The City depends on it.

    Base case is Berlin and Brussels plan to insist on an EEA- (i.e. a worse deal than Norway) that excludes passporting, migration controls.

    This would however allow services to continue to have access to the single market. But not financial services. Mass migration continues.

    This is formal offer. But Paris is planning a turn of cynical brilliance - that could at a stroke smite London and restore Paris to glory.

    France cynicallly intends to offer Britain an EEA- that excludes passporting, but givs them a migration cap, and single market access.

    This is a brilliant move: "you get less Poles, but we want your banks." It would be in France's interests to encourage UK out to get banks.

    This would leave some stuff shirt like Crabb in a disastrous position: Paris and Berlin would have handed him a deal only "bad for bankers."

    But the cynical French deal would be exactly the kind of cap migration, free movement for us and single market deal that the public want.


    The icing on the cake is, of course, that Boris is very, very good chums with a great many in the City. (or at least was. LOL)

    While the only job Farage ever 'toiled' away at was, you guessed it, in the City as a commodities trader.


  11. we all know the don't knows are really no supporters who seem shy in giving their views. To be honest there doesn't seem to have been much movement . We should expect a bigger bounce than this at this time especially . I fear that as time goes on the shock of leaving the EU may ebb away and when it comes to the crunch it will be the same result as two years ago. I'm very sceptical of pollsters , they have so wrong recently and I get the impression that they should interpret the results to please who commissioned the poll and to create the sense of a neck and neck drama soo we keep commissioning new polls.

    1. Boris Gump and the BrixitearsJune 29, 2016 at 3:58 PM

      Anyone who mystifyingly thinks that the jawdropping westminster incompetence can't get any worse, should at least concede just how wrong they keep getting it, and how many times that already low bar keeps getting smashed to pieces.

      I see no sign whatsoever that any of the utterly incompetent fools in the tory party or Labour party have learned a thing or have the slightest intention of getting their act together in the mercilessly short time they will have to prepare for Brexit.

      The idea that Boris has the slightest chance of uniting all the Brexiters and keeping them happy, never mind the whole of the UK in the face of impending recession and crushing austerity, is one that should be viewed with vast amusement.

    2. "we all know the don't knows are really no supporters who seem shy in giving their views"

      No, we don't know that at all.

    3. There are too many variables to see what will happen . It's predicted that a very deep recession will hit all Europe next year and the U.K. Will still be in the EU at that stage, it could take years to negotiate a exit from the EU if we leave at all. We mustn't see the Brexit camp as some kind of organised body, they are mainly just ordinary working people mostly fed up with the EU . As long as Boris becomes PM I don't he cares much about the Brexit supporters

    4. The referendum was for most a vote against immigration . It was the English working class who voted out. I suppose it's all very well for us to critize them but we don't live in the run down crime ridden estates they are forced to live in

    5. Boris Gump and the BrexiteersJune 29, 2016 at 4:35 PM

      "We mustn't see the Brexit camp as some kind of organised body"

      There's about as much chance of that as seeing the Labour party as an organised body at the moment.


    6. Boris Gump and the BrexitearsJune 29, 2016 at 4:52 PM

      "As long as Boris becomes PM I don't he cares much about the Brexit supporters"

      He doesn't have a choice in the matter.

      Not least because he's going to claim the referendum result gives him a mandate which is something Theresa May simply cannot do as a Remainer.

      Boris was basically the face of the Brexiters during the campaign along with Farage. No point pretending otherwise.

      If the Boris 'mandate' is fairly tendentious (and it is) then May trying to struggle on after replacing Cameron without having to face an election will become amusingly futile.

      Those who think the tories at westminster want an early election don't seem to grasp the magnitude of what has happened or just how much flak the tories would face for the utterly incompetent Brexit so far. (Not to mention the imminent deeper recession)

      A snap election seems incredibly unlikely. The last thing most of those at westminster want to do right now is ask the voters to have another go after the EU ref. No telling what the voters would do tbh.

  12. The polls s week ago were 59% and 54% so it's not that encouraging

    1. It's difficult to know where to start with that comment - you're not even comparing like with like, because the 59% figure didn't exclude Don't Knows.

      Basically you're referring to the ScotPulse poll and the Survation telephone poll. As noted above, today's poll is essentially identical to the Survation telephone poll - the apparent 1% difference is a quirk of rounding. The ScotPulse poll was a 'half-breed' poll that probably wasn't fully scientific, so it has to be put in a completely separate category.

      Believe me, 53.5% in a Survation online poll is a good result for Yes. It's totally without precedent.

    2. But can we trust the polls, just look at. Their recent record. They just tell us what we want to hear

    3. They certainly weren't telling us what we wanted to hear in August 2013, when YouGov had Yes on 33% and No on 67%. There was a sizeable net swing AGAINST the status quo over the course of the first indyref campaign.

    4. What were the polls saying regarding having an indy referendum in 2011?

      Of course, its not an adequate test to prove a yes vote but it is an interesting insight into just how
      Much people would be willing to listen to the arguments of Yes, rather than just outright, not listening no. Or cognitive dissonance.

      I think it is ours to lose, we start off better than before but we must be honest with people regarding short term indy scotland


    """Although a large minority of the English-born population in Scotland ultimately voted for independence, it's hardly surprising that the majority were more preoccupied with concerns about unnecessary""" disruption and a sense of what might be lost.

  14. The Great Westminster UltrashamblesJune 29, 2016 at 4:38 PM

    BBC NewsnightVerified account ‏@BBCNewsnight

    45 out of 50 constituency Labour party chairs contacted by #newsnight say they still back Jeremy Corbyn - and many are furious at Labour MPs

  15. Boris Gump and the BrexitearsJune 29, 2016 at 4:41 PM

    Some prattle about Gove's wife with a leaked email on Sky.

    Jist of it is Gove needs assurances from Boris.

    No shit Sherlock?

    Some mildly interesting gossip about Dacre and Murdoch not being a big Boris fan though that doesn't seem to be reflected in their tabloids actions tbh

  16. Here are some facts (taken from Wings over Scotland blog

    1. Jeremy Corbyn was elected just nine months ago by an overwhelming landslide of Labour members, winning a greater mandate than even Tony Blair.
    2. Since then he’s performed pretty averagely, despite being constantly undermined by his own MPs, who were plotting a coup against him before he was even elected.
    3. Against dire predictions of catastrophe, Labour have done fine in by-elections and council elections, won the London mayoral election and closed the gap on the Tories in the polls, which just before Corbyn’s election as leader stood as high as 14 points.
    4. The excuse being used for the coup is that Corbyn didn’t do enough to persuade Labour supporters to vote Remain in the EU referendum. Yet 63% did – just 1% fewer than the share among SNP voters, which has conspicuously failed to trigger demands for Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation.
    We’re somewhat less than convinced that the Labour “heartland” areas which voted Leave in large numbers would have been turned around had an Islington MP shouted at them more stridently that they should stop blaming immigrants for poverty.
    5. Against this, there’s a claim that Labour would have performed better in the elections and the referendum had it had a different leader, despite not a shred of evidence existing that there’s any potential leader the public likes any more than Corbyn. He is, in effect, being judged against a phantom."

    1. The hilarity continuesJune 29, 2016 at 5:17 PM

      John Leach ‏@johnleach · 2 hours ago  Bradford, England

      Very amused to hear that the anti-Corbyn plotters know they need a candidate who didn't vote for Iraq war but can't find one, haha.

  17. @James, you are not doing anyone any good when you do not list the margin of error and maybe teach your readers what it means......

    UKRef was won inside the MOE of several polls.

    To be blunt, with the margin of error whilst indy2 might be in a better position than it was similar months out from indyref1, the polling numbers are not that great.

    If you and other activists want independence you need to get a lot more sober.

    George Stewart

    1. Is MOE from the Simpsons???? Durrrr?!June 29, 2016 at 5:34 PM

      "@James, you are not doing anyone any good when you do not list the margin of error and maybe teach your readers what it means......"

      Why thank ee kindly sor. I dof my cap to you for teaching us ignorant peasants the margin or error of our ways.

      Now you'll have to excuse me as I have to Google "What is the EU?" while eating my bowl of cereal.


      Yeah, good post chum. I'll be sure to think it over next time we're at a count when none of the other parties could even be fucking bothered to turn up. Like with the EUref.

  18. @james, in your prior post you asked for input on project fear 2.0, before the responses fell completely apart.

    This polling will have no meaning two years out.

    By way of example, the polling was taken when the FTSE had tanked on Friday. Guess what the FTSE has fully recovered in just a few days.

    Everyone needs to ask themselves what "Global Britain" will look like or may look like in a couple years. Thats the battle you are up against.

    I think its fair to say that its more likely that the UK will be a member of EFTA/EEA with full access to the single market. But what this means is that Scotland gets back a whole raft of areas to include fishing. Those areas would be given back to the EU on indyref2.

    As a member of EFTA, the UK can negotiate trade and immigration deals on its own. Australia/New Zealand is very keen to negotiate a trade and free movement deal. I am sure more young Scots are eager to migrate to Oz than France. The USA is very keen as shown by Congress to get a trade deal with the UK with the EU TTIP likely going down in flames.

    Next year France and Germany have elections which will impact the brexit. Merkel may be gone...

    I really want to see Scotland as an independent nation and my reasons are extremely selfish because to be honest I get the passport and if it all goes pear shaped, my handful of other passports lets me live just about anywhere.

    All that said if the UK is in EFTA, a slew of items come back to Scotland from the EU, the UK has a line up of other trade and immigration deals, there is going to have to be a compelling argument for Scots to vote leave UK with an eye to joining the EU.

    Cheers, George Stewart

    PS. Talking about a hard border will cause you to bleed votes... We are in the Common Travel Area which an indy Scotland would instantly want to join.

    1. Wings Scotlandsson ‏@WingsScotland · 17 minutes ago

      Jeremy Corbyn unpopular with Hothersall, Curran and Foulkes. He'll be gutted.

      At the very least the Coup has outed the most inept and poisonous of Labour careerists for all to see.

      Well played Blairites, well played.

    2. Should have been fresh post. Apologies, but the platform is still a touch buggy it would seem.

  19. James I don't get why, if Scotland is in the free movement area and England is not, there needs to be a hard border between Scotland and rUK.

    If folk with only an EU passport aren't entitled to work or receive services in rUK, then that sorts the Leavers' problem doesn't it? No reason to stop them walking in as tourists.

    It would surely be trade tariffs between rUK and the EU which would necessitate a hard border - for customs, not immigration?

  20. Anon said, "The referendum was for most a vote against immigration . It was the English working class who voted out. I suppose it's all very well for us to critize them but we don't live in the run down crime ridden estates they are forced to live in"

    Speak for yourself, Anon, I live in a Dundee tenement, and the police are never away from some of the buildings in my street. My car has been vandalised many times, I've just lost my job, and I have Polish neighbours.
    Oh, and I voted Remain.

    1. All too true Juteman. It's one of the big reasons I have nothing but contempt for the Labour careerists and the kipper racists. We campaigned for the EU in some extremely deprived areas and for the most part it went pretty well. Certainly wasn't easy though and there was a telling lack of anyone else trying anywhere near as hard or even trying at all.

  21. How low can you go?June 29, 2016 at 5:51 PM

    Wings Scotlandsson ‏@WingsScotland · 2 minutes ago

    Of the 200 Labour activists on that "Corbyn must go" list, *50* are from Edinburgh Southern.

    Best look for your wee tin hat Hothersall. I strongly doubt there will be an overabundance of forgiveness going around in Labour and Union circles when the dust clears, if it ever does.

  22. I am not sure why people keep quoting the Greenland model when we have a much more relevant example. The Channel Islands are part of the UK but not part of the EU. Having set up this precedent, Westminster could negotiate to expand it to include England and Wales, leaving Scotland, NI and Gibraltar in the EU without the need to activate Article 50.

    Should Nicola Sturgeon suggest this course of action to Westminster, I predicted they'd tell her to 'b*gger off'.

    However having made this suggestion, a model that allows the component parts of the UK to obtain their choice in the referendum without having to break up the UK, and having that suggestion rebuffed would make her case for Independence much stronger.

  23. Cleggs Ostrich FactionJune 29, 2016 at 6:16 PM

    "They have announced that they will go into the next general election with a manifesto commitment to overturn the result of the Brexit referendum - and that's not dependent on any material change of circumstances, but simply on the fact that the Leave campaign told lies.

    Please, let them use Clegg to rail against the lies.

    Or are they planning to hide him in the same place Cameron and Osborne were cowering in while the world went to shit?

    As I noted before, it also basically boots the Scottish branch office of the lib dems into even more irrelevance. Standing shoulder to shoulder with the Buffalo and the tories at Indyref2 while Farron is doing this?? Mind-boggling.

    Hard to think of anything funnier than Labour telling scots it will all be okay if they win the next GE right now, but the lib dems have found it.

    'Don't worry Scotland. All you need is for the lib dems to win the next westminster election and everything will be fine!'
    Signed - The taxi full of lib dem MPs at westminster.

    It's basically a VOW 2. Who could possibly doubt it? :D

    1. The principle of it can be mocked, but I would have been amazed if the Lib Dems didn't take this line under the circumstances. They need to give people a reason to vote for them and capitalising on anger at the referendum result is their best opportunity to do that. It won't work because they're a damaged brand - with a new party this line might work, though.

  24. "The Channel Islands are part of the UK"

    That's not true - Jersey and Guernsey are Crown Dependencies, and are outside the UK in much the same way that Bermuda and the Falkland Islands are outside the UK.

    1. Except that until the British Overseas Territories Act of around 2000 (when citizens of former dependent territories received British Citizenship) the people Jersey and Guernsey have always had the same nationality as those born in mainland UK. It is your nationality that determines your right to free movement. There is a precedent in there somewhere.

  25. Spain has just publicly stated that no discussion can take place between Scotland and the EU abour EU membership because Scotland has not yet regained its independence. This clearly suggests that Spain will not now oppose discussions when Scotland does become independent again. IndyRef2 has become even more likely thanks to Spain.

  26. Edinburgh Working ClassJune 29, 2016 at 6:44 PM

    Scotland's chances of independence have been dealt a blow today. On the one side we've got Tusk rejecting to meet Nicola Stulin. On the other side Spain and France have opposed talks in Scotland. Here is the thing: unless each and one of all of the states that are in the EU agree, Scotland will not be in the EU.

    What does this mean? - Well, if Scotland can't join the EU then the nat si case for a second referendum is in tatters. Without the whole EU thing working in your favour, you're toast.

    And all this is without even stating to discuss the economic case for an independent Scotland...*cough*...oil. Besides the fact that most of the trade Scotland does is with the rUK, not the EU. So guess what union is it that Scotland needs the most? - That is the United Kingdom.

    Well, it does look rather bright from Morningside.

    Rule Britania, proud to be British.

    Once more, happy to help.

    1. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJune 29, 2016 at 6:48 PM


    2. That was Scottish cringe at its worst.

    3. He is not Scottish. Stop pretending he is.

  27. Blairites of Mass DestructionJune 29, 2016 at 6:51 PM

    Charlie Brooker ‏@charltonbrooker · 59 minutes ago

    Corbynite sounds like a very strong brand of glue. “Stays stuck no matter what”. Big marketing opportunity yeah.

  28. √Čoin ‏@LabourEoin · 5h

    What is so difficult about this Plotters? Get your 51 signatures, trigger an election. Let the people decide. Why do you fear democracy so?

  29. Blair's Ostrich FactionJune 29, 2016 at 7:10 PM

    "This is eerily similar to the Lib Dem coup against Charles Kennedy in 2006, when the plotters still weren't satisfied even after Kennedy resigned - they refused to call off the dogs until Kennedy changed his mind about standing in the subsequent leadership election, because they knew the membership might well give him a renewed mandate. I just hope Corbyn doesn't follow Kennedy's example by eventually giving in to the bullying and blackmail."

    If they are tempted to follow the lib dem/Kennedy example, they might want to ponder this.

    Kennedy increased the lib dems seats in the House of Commons to their highest level since 1923. The lib dem plotters replaced him with Ming. Ming who was fairly swiftly deposed when it became clear most lib dems wanted Kennedy back. Then up popped Clegg after some 'judicious' briefing behind Ming's back. Clegg then won less seats than Kennedy and subsequently led the lib dems into oblivion and irrelevance by triangulating themselves as close to the tories as possible.

    On the other hand the Blairite plotters must surely have thought things through?

    Hence their headless chicken dance right now.

  30. One factor of course which is important about another indyref is the campaign .Who or what is going to be in Better together 2 and what is the value of pledges or promises from Johnson and co given the history of previous ones not least that only by being in the UK could Scots guarantee their EU membership and citizenship.Not forgetting that the UK of 2014 no longer exists but has become in effect Greater 'little' England .

  31. Let the Eagle SoarJune 29, 2016 at 7:50 PM

    Looking like the Eagle might land tomorrow and challenge Corbyn.

    Not 100% sure the Labour members will be bowled over. ;-)

  32. With England out of the EU and Scotland in I don't see why we'd need a physical border. EU nationals could only work in Scotland so they couldn't simply catch a train down to England and get a job could they? As far as nationals from other non EU states go, we could just mirror closely the rUK's immigration rules and issue work visas (only applicable to Scotland) as appropriate. We could take copies of all non EU nationals and their biometrics as they enter Scotland and share this info with rUK authorities so that if someone turns up in England with no passport claiming asylum they could quickly be identified and returned to their country of origin.

  33. Sorry, that should read "...copies of all non EU nationals' passports..."

  34. If Scotland votes for independence but the Shetlands and the borders vote to stay in the uk, does that mean we will drag them out undemocratically , or will they be allowed to negotiate to stay. No I thought not

    1. Both voted to stay in the EU or is your head stuck so far up your arse that you cant see out.

    2. coz it's like juzt the samez as a nation like yeahJune 29, 2016 at 9:38 PM

      derp derp

    3. Because partition worked so well in Ireland? Strange that nobody ever calls for Yorkshire, Northumberland, Lincolnshire and the rest to be returned to Danish rule. Divide and rule by the britnat racists. You won't win this time. Victory (ours) and death (yours).

    4. No, There Won't Be a Referendum on London's Independence - London Mayor Sadiq Khan

      Most of Project Fear's most dumbass 'talking points' do seem to be dropping like tory plotters voices within earshot of a Cameroon. ;-)

  35. I know that my memory is going but I distinctly remember during the 2014 referendum a discussion on fishing interests.

    The FM pointed out a simple truth that if Scotland was kicked out of the EU then the EU fishing fleets would lose access to the entire northern North Sea. This was turned into a smear and the usual imperialist, "you and whose navy," sneers from our beloved quisling media.

    There is a reciprocal arrangement where EU boats can fish in Norwegian waters as long as Norwegian boats can fish in Scottish waters. With Scotland dragged out of the EU by farage and his racists that arrangement ceases and every spanish, portuguese, greek, etc etc boat can be scrapped as they have no fish to catch. Which puts Scotland in a massively dominant position when it comes to negotiations with the EU.

    I've yet to see this even mentioned by any supposedly serious journalist. Have they forgotten already or are they just such a bunch of maggot-brained wanks that they are incapable of telling the truth when they can't portray Scotland as an insignificant, powerless wasteland?

    1. The Great Westminster UltraShamblesJune 29, 2016 at 10:23 PM

      The chances of them undermining or putting a dent in Nicola's popularity right now are precisely Zero.

      They still don't seem to get that despite their wall to wall hysteria at the time we still had truly incredible wins at Westminster then Holyrood.

      All they are accomplishing is reducing the Scottish public's already very low and continually falling trust in what they say.

      Of course, just wait till they have to try to polish the turd of Davidson and her tory led efforts to stop and then fight Indyref2.

      Then they will truly grasp what a backlash is.

    2. On fishing: yes, this is a point that could be raised, but the wider issue we're talking about here (who has the upper hand in a negotiation, who has the most leverage) is the only thing that matters and clearly the EU would still have more to bring to the table than we would in that scenario.

      One of the things I detest about politicians whenever these subjects are raised is they always claim they'll be capable of negotiating an impossible deal - and there are always reasons you can cite (UKIP cite a nonsensical soundbite about our trade deficit buying us influence with the EU). This is just rhetoric and when we get around a negotiating table it will immediately vanish into thin air.

      Tsipras, for instance, used this tactic in Greece to win an election. He claimed they'd be dictating terms to the EU because otherwise the Eurozone would collapse. The reality was they signed a worse deal than the one Syriza had initially campaigned against.

      The UK will fare no differently, despite what the British nationalists think at this point. We would also, as an independent country, have the short-end of the stick in a negotiation. The one difference might be that the EU has every reason to treat Scotland as an equal partner, whereas they now have every reason to treat the UK as a pariah (much like Greece) to prevent contagion. I personally think they'd treat us quite generously in that scenario, just as they do with other accession countries.

  36. Blairites of Mass DestructionJune 29, 2016 at 10:14 PM

    macktalkerskywalker ‏@isawfireworks · 2 hours ago

    Angela Eagle voted for tuition fees; voted to invade Iraq; voted to bomb Syria; isn't even backed by her local party

    How do these coup 'plotters' have the unmitaged balls to criticise Corbyn's competence when they think THAT is the answer.

  37. 'Triumph' of the CameroonsJune 29, 2016 at 11:26 PM

    Lest we forget there is of course another complete and utter shambles going on at clusterfuck westminster as they all play hunt the leader.

    It's the tories jolly decent and not at all rancorous leadership contest. Something the Cameroons have deluded themselves into thinking it will be. They seem not to have noticed most of the plotting and knife-sharpening is going on very much behind there backs. For a reason.

    Let's take one of the Cameroons most absurd planks of wishful thinking. That May is a 'safe pair of hands'.

    ORLY? As the owls say. ;)

    The Cameroon memory may be short but I strongly doubt the Brexiteers is. I'm sure they are relishing the prospect of watching May try to defend her almost career ending bumblefuck over BORDER CONTROLS.

    Perhaps May can claim it's not really relevant and watch the giggling from TV interviewers as they gently point out the unstoppable supertanker of Brexit hoving into view?

    Not enough? Then how about something the Brixiteers will absolutely not forgotten about? Something indeed, the Cameroons still shudder at the mere thought of? The small matter of calamity Cameron's immigration pledge which blew up in his face every bit during the campaign as spectacularly as some of us predicted?

    Blame it all on Cameron? She could try but there is the small matter of her being directly responsible for the implementation no matter how mindbogglingly stupid Cameron's promise was.

    But really, all this is just a symptom of the main thing which will rip them apart. Brexit itself.

    Some of the most head in the sand and delusional Cameroons have been marching about the commons and TV studios trying to downplay Brexit with an airy sniffs of 'other matters' and 'leadership qualities' being more worthy of consideration.

    Yeeeeah, bout that. Not going to happen.

    Even a cursory glance at the nightmare of a timetable needed to get everything sorted means it will utterly dominate everything from now until several years after, and probably for a good couple of decades to be going on with.

    So expect a rerun of precisely who was right and who was wrong between the Cameroons and Brexiters because there's no way on god's green earth they are about to meekly stand by and let May waltz into Number 10 after she hid away for the heavy lifting of the campaign and decision which has changed everything.

    They want a Brexiter and there is very little logic in the tory party choosing anyone other than a Brexiter since that is why Cameron quit (He lost) And the kippers are hardly going to run off at the first sign of backtracking from someone who isn't even a Brexiter. Quite the reverse.

    Still, if it was May at least they could finally rid yourselves of all that Nasty Party business.

    Oh, wait a minute.. that was her, wasn't it? Yup.

    That has about as much chance of ever going away as Brexit itself then. :D

  38. Glasgow Working Class 2June 30, 2016 at 12:22 AM

    How far did knickerless go in crawling tae Junker. Did she kneel to his eminence. He seemed pretty pleased with the out come!

    1. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJune 30, 2016 at 1:01 AM


    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 30, 2016 at 1:09 AM

      The above poster is a fash right wing Nat si and a crawling basket case tae Herman and the Frogs. No dignity at all and not a Scotsman or Wummin.

    3. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJune 30, 2016 at 1:20 AM


    4. HAHAHAHA ...How's it goin JOCK! :D As we all address each other in Scotland of course.

  39. There is a way for Scotland to stay in the EU while remaining part of the UK, it would just require a unique agreement that hasn't been done before. But we are in uncharted territory so anything is possible. In fact, it might even appease the Spanish because if they veto this model it's more likely to push us toward independence - and the real thing they're worried about is how Scottish independence could inflame the situation in Catalonia, not some ad hoc deal for Scotland that has no real relevance to Catalonia given Spain is in the EU.

    The problems with this kind of model aren't as large as they appear because the UK is inevitably going to follow a Norwegian style model. That will mean the bulk of EU legislation will remain the same in the UK (so there will be no problems of legal consistency between Scotland and rUK - that's the whole point of the single market, to make regulations compatible). What they'll be opting out of is largely programmes rather than legislation - e.g. the Common Fisheries Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy. But these are geographically based in any case - we can say that Scottish waters are subject to the Common Fisheries Policy while English/Welsh waters aren't. Scottish farmers can receive CAP subsidies while English farmers will receive subsidies from Westminster.

    The real areas where this gets complicated are issues like budget contributions. We don't have full fiscal autonomy so the contribution would presumably have to go through the UK government. If it follows a Norwegian style model the UK will still be paying into the EU budget in any case and there would be a calculation to reduce their contributions in accordance to the areas they're participating in. It would nevertheless require some balancing of how money is shared within the UK on the grounds of fairness.

    All of this is incredibly complex and difficult to negotiate. Is it likely? Probably not. But we're in such a complex and delicate situation as it is that I would argue it is very much on the table. The next Conservative PM is going to have Scotland as one of his/her priorities whether they like it or not and they're going to have to find some way to address the problem. Just telling us to shut up about the EU and blocking a second independence referendum isn't a solution - and they're not idiots, they know that fine well.

    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 30, 2016 at 1:14 AM

      Knob end you cannot change the EU just destroy the gravy train and moreso the EU Commission.

    2. "Just telling us to shut up about the EU and blocking a second independence referendum isn't a solution"

      It's what they've done since the Brexit vote. Cameron did it again at PMQ's today. Their line is a British Brexit across the board and if we don't like it then tough. There was absolutely no sign of any attempt to even consider anything else.

      I also strongly doubt Boris or May will be any different to Cameron. Almost certainly even worse to try and appease their fractious and bewildered tory MPs who will probably start screaming about even more EVEL any day now. What with it possibly being a hot button issue for tory leadership posturing for the Brexiteers seeming 'outraged' at any dissent from those who dared vote Remain.

    3. The poster above "Not in my name" is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJune 30, 2016 at 1:23 AM


    4. Hey there GWC2 How's it goin JOCK!!! (as we working class weegies address each other (not :D)


  40. James


    Do you think it is enough? I know you appear to think that a narrow 'yes' is enough but I would like to see that number increase, a lot.

    I want to win, not lose, next time.

    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 30, 2016 at 1:18 AM

      So you want to win and hand Scotland over tae Herman and the Frogs. Fucking Quisling and traitor to Scotland.

    2. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJune 30, 2016 at 1:20 AM


    3. That's JOCK, as he likes to address his ahem, fellow working class scots. :D :D :D

    4. Glasgow Working Class 2,

      I want to take back my own agency, along with other Scots. And by Scots I mean anyone living here.

      The poster above is a far-right racist troll from England. Perhaps, or just a tad sad.

  41. Nigel Farage and his racist postersJune 30, 2016 at 1:32 AM

    Arsene's Eyes ‏@Arsenes_Eyes · Jun 28

    .@Nigel_Farage Brilliant. I always find negotiations go best when everyone in the room is insulted first. Congratulations you racist Idiot.

  42. Bumblef**k tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 8:51 AM

    Fluffy just came out for May.


    Not sure which is the more staggeringly out of touch tbh

    Probably team Cameroon itself for thinking May's wee contempt of court 'unpleasantness' can be brushed under the carpet like her support for Remain and cowardice during the campaign.

    Same establishment that thought have the red faced incompetent calamity Cameron screaming "GO!" at Corbyn was likely to help get rid of him.

    Same utterly incompetent westminster establishment that did everything in their power to help the Leave vote with their jawdroppingly out of touch prognostications and actions at every single turn.

    For example Boris is an utter buffoon but the Cameroons can hardly pretend he doesn't know how to campaign. I think the public did actually notice him doing so somewhat recently and will be struggling to remember what May does. (and not be best pleased when they do remember) Crux of it is sooner or later the tories are going to have to face an electorate again during something called a campaign. No matter how much the westminster establishment might wish that wasn't the case.

    To be fair they are still in the denial stage, either outwardly or through the notion that they can still control things. Just wait till they reach the anger stage. There will be plenty of opportunities for that soon enough.

  43. The Great Westminster UltrashamblesJune 30, 2016 at 9:04 AM

    Robert Peston ‏@Peston · 18 hours ago

    I am told 13,000 people joined Labour last week, with 60% giving the reason they are "supporting Corbyn"

    Just how long will it take the westminster establishment to realise they are the problem and not the solution.

    Likely as long as it took SLAB. i.e. Far too late before it destroys them.

  44. PeatWorrier ‏@PeatWorrier · 6 minutes ago

    Next week: Alan Titchmarsh writes exclusively on why the state of John McDonnell's dwarf marigolds confirms he's a stone cold sociopath.

  45. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 9:24 AM




    Let battle commence! :D

  46. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 9:30 AM

    Someone stating the obvious on the News just now. Quite refreshing.

    "None of the tory runners have en exit plan."

    No shit Sherlock.

    We can all see how well that's been working so far.

  47. Bumblefuck tories for untiyJune 30, 2016 at 9:43 AM

    Oh and Leadsome.

    Looks like all the peanuts are jumping into the bowl in search a big job.

    This is beginning to resemble the staggered resignations of the Blarites with out of touch idiot after out of touch idiot proclaiming themselves to the public over a few days.

    Likely to do their party as much good as well.

    *reaches for yet more popcorn*

  48. Bumblefuck tories for untiyJune 30, 2016 at 9:54 AM

    May with a heavily rehearsed speech though, amusingly, can't seem to manage a natural smile. A strange grimace keeps popping up reminiscent of Broon at his finest.

    Boilerplate Cameroon stuff from the most part.

    Lecturing 'the poors' that politics isn't a game after her sponsor Cameron had a hissy fit and plunged the world into chaos.

    Laughably out of touch.

  49. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 10:08 AM

    May making jolly jokes about Boris watercannon.
    Remember 'poors' politics is NOT a game. LOL

    I wonder if the Cameroons realise that both Boris and Gove will have had plenty of time for their researchers to comb through her copious clusterfucks too?

    They'll find out soon enough.

    This is going to be as bloody as we thought it would be. :D

    May now claiming she won't offer jobs to anybody in any leadership deals.

    Either she's lying, in which case we'll find out through leaks or she just lost a massive chunk of the tory careerist MPs vote.

    Good couple of months of spitting fury and the tory split at least before the real chaos begins.

  50. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 10:12 AM

    May saying she won't pursue pulling out of the ECHR.

    You could feel the icy chill and silence from some of the tories in room when she said that.


    Dear god, it's falling to pieces a bit now, she's making wild grimacing faces and spluttering when asked about talking to Cameron.

    This is a preview of Eagle for leader.


  51. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 10:23 AM

    Oh and May wants no GE before 2020. Which seemed to be obvious to some of us tbh

    No article 50 till end of the year won't go well with the Brexiteers though.

  52. The Great Westminster UltrashamblesJune 30, 2016 at 10:35 AM

    Arthur Ballantyne ‏@Arthur

    Dear British Establishment,
    I still don't think it's there is a big enough story to bury the #Chilcot report.
    Fantastic effort though��

    1. The tory 'leadership' response to that should be incredibly amusing.

      Given that Cameron, Osborne and Gove were incredibly gung-ho for invasion of Iraq.

  53. Ray-Raymundsson ‏@Ray_McRobbie · 16m

    Gove: "Keep me away from that job. There's no way I'm doing it. I'd be rubbish. It's not for! Stop! Why am I in the runn...NOOOO!"

  54. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 11:02 AM

    Curious ‏@myviewontopic · 34 minutes ago

    Gove or Boris or May..oh ffs #BetterToGetOut Scotland #indyref2 #ScotlandinEurope

  55. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 11:08 AM

    Mehreen ‏@MehreenKhn · 39 minutes ago

    Theresa May thinks people who have English as a 2nd language can't actually speak English. Good luck in Brussels

  56. The Great Westminster UltrashamblesJune 30, 2016 at 11:40 AM

    With one of the worst PMs of modern times still there, and his cowardly chancellor still every bit the despised laughing stock he made himself by hiding for days as the chaos unfolded, the tories petulant playground infighting involving Gove, Boris and May looks set to run and run.

    And as if that wasn't enough..

    Jim WatersonVerified account ‏@jimwaterson

    Tory MP Philip Hollobone in the House of Commons formally complaining about Lindsay Lohan's referendum night Twitter attacks on Kettering.

    Not a spoof tweet, that actually happened.

    You then have fuckwitted racist kippers in the House of Lords demanding EU nationals be used as hostages in EU negotiatons and you can see why everybody who isn't angry at the Westminster ultrashambles is laughing in complete and utter disbelief at it.

    I have no doubt at all that those comfortably ensconced in the westminster bubble still barely realise just how grim things are for them right now.

    If they had even the tiniest inkling, they would do an Osborne for at least the next five years or so.

  57. Boris Gump and the BrexitearsJune 30, 2016 at 11:45 AM

    Boris Gump up now.

    Not looking too chipper. LOL

    Still, there's weeks of this carnage to play out.

    1. Boris Gump goes homeJune 30, 2016 at 11:55 AM

      And there he goes...

      GOVE Vs May


    2. "they would do an Osborne for at least the next five years or so."

  58. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 12:07 PM

    So many tories have been stabbed in the back, front and sides this morning it will take years to sort out who hates who the most.

    Good thing they have the luxury of opposition in which to do so and have no other pressing matters... oh right!! LOL

  59. NeilMackay ‏@NeilMackay · 7 minutes ago

    So the tiff that started on Eton's playing fields ends with neither Cameron or Johnson in Number 10 - while we bear the cost. What a wheeze

  60. Oh this is pure gold. This just keeps getting better.

    More please!!!

  61. #Better Together 2June 30, 2016 at 2:44 PM

    Jamie Ross ‏@JamieRoss7 · 2 hours ago

    The Conservatives got comprehensively rekt by every one of the other parties during #fmqs today. A lot of anger towards them in parliament.

  62. Surely Eton must have another candidate for leader of the Conservative Party? Is it not a new rule that we have to have a PM who is Etonian?

    1. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 3:24 PM

      No, just a spineless incompetent.

      They have their bases covered admirably on that front with a brace of blancmanges.

    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 30, 2016 at 11:26 PM

      douglas you should know better. The Tories wash most of their dirty washin in the background unlike Labour. The Nat sis have learnt lessons from them.

    3. You still called Jo Cox's husband a fascist. We haven't forgotten about that.

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