Saturday, November 14, 2015

Yes draws level for the first time ever in independence Poll of Polls

As you may already have seen, the first detail from the new Panelbase poll for Wings Over Scotland has been released - and it's the headline numbers on independence.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 49% (+2)
No 51% (-2)

Over the seven independence polls that Panelbase have conducted since the referendum, the Yes vote has ranged from 45% to 51%.  However, the 51% result was not directly comparable to the others, because the question asked was : "Knowing what you know now, if the independence referendum was tomorrow how would you vote?" Arguably, the "knowing what you know now" bit might have nudged some people towards thinking that their vote 'ought' to have changed. In the other six polls, Panelbase seem to have stuck rigidly with : "If the referendum was held again tomorrow, how would you vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?" Until today, that question had produced a Yes range of between 45% and 48%, meaning that the 49% in the new poll is a record-breaking high. It's not quite a record high for a Panelbase poll using the referendum question in some form, though, because there was one conducted in August 2013 that put Yes on 51%. (That was the famous poll that John Curtice could never refer to without using the words "apart from one much-criticised Panelbase poll", which basically meant that he had criticised it quite a lot!) But post-referendum polls are not comparable to pre-referendum polls anyway, because Panelbase now use weighting by recalled referendum vote, which tends to lower the reported Yes share.

So is the increase for Yes in today's poll statistically significant? Not necessarily - if the true position (or "true" according to the Panelbase methodology) has remained unchanged at around 47% since the referendum, the standard 3% margin of error could easily produce results of 45% or 49% now and again. But, as I always say, if a poll result falls outside the previous normal range, it generally tells you something of interest. Either it means that the state of play has changed, or it changes our understanding of what "unchanged" means. In this case, if we were to assume that public opinion has remained steady, it would still be good news for Yes, because plainly a normal range of 45% to 49% is marginally healthier than a normal range of 45% to 48%.

Across the various post-referendum polls from the four firms that have used weighting by recalled referendum vote, 49% isn't actually unusually high, although it's above average. The best Yes showing in a poll of that sort (excluding the Panelbase poll with an unusual question) was 51% with Survation in March.

There's not much more to be said until the datasets are released, but what I can do is update the Poll of Polls. I think you might enjoy this...


MEAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 50.0% (+0.4)
No 50.0% (-0.4)

MEAN AVERAGE (not excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 46.3% (+0.3)
No 46.3% (-0.4)

MEDIAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 49.2% (+0.5)
No 50.8% (-0.5)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the firms that have polled on independence since the referendum, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are six - YouGov, TNS, Survation, Panelbase, Ipsos-Mori and ICM. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample.)

It goes without saying that this is the best result for Yes since the Poll of Polls started two years ago. The really telling stride forward came with the sensational Ipsos-Mori and TNS polls in September, but the changes shown by Panelbase have been just enough for Yes to draw level for the first time.

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  1. Yes, I enjoy it. Panelbase was keeping the average below 50%, now it's spot on.

    The tipping point, I hope.

  2. James, could I suggest for the poll of polls, a running list of the 6 firms with date and result, to go with the article, in reverse date order (most current first)?

  3. It only takes one vote to win or lose, who are these no voters what has to be done or said to put Scotland first before themselves.

    1. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 14, 2015 at 8:43 PM

      All Scots surely put Scotland first however being in the Union does not change that.
      Why is this not being said regards being in the EU.

    2. Who is paying you to be here???

    3. His wife. It's the only way.

    4. Wise up ignore a troll especially a anonymous one.

  4. I hope you give equal prominence to the opinion polls that will start to show the Scottish people coming to their senses and voting to stay with their friends in the rest of the UK..(I hope)

    1. So these are people who are staying with friends in the rest of the UK, but have taken leave of their senses? In what way? Are they smashing the crockery?

      I can't think of any independence poll in recent years that I haven't given prominence to.

    2. shush
      eat you cereal.

    3. I must admit I find the pro-union camp tactic of insulting those they wish to win over quite a, well, erm, shall we say 'novel' approach.

      Jimmy, you realise people read this blog right? A lot more read it than post. Telling people they are nutcases who've lost their mind is probably not a great way of winning people to your cause.

      Just sayin.

    4. I will take your advice and stop posting commenys on this page

    5. I'm sure we'll all be very grateful to hear that :)

  5. In other words, no still in the lead after years of campaigning, grudge and grievance and brainwashing (oh - and a no victory in an actual referendum).

    Move along people. Nothing to see here...

    Besides, you should have greater matters on your mind this evening than petty seperatism. Vive la France and long live the United Kingdom. Two great beacons of liberalism for the world!

    1. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha, the UK, a beacon of liberalism? You must be joking. What have you been drinking tonight? Did you not sit your O-level in History?

      If you weren't so narrow minded you would see that our foreign policy has encouraged this insanity! If we were so liberal we wouldn't be in this sorry state of affairs.

      Aldo, do us all a favour and go away. Before you do though, who is paying you?

    2. "In other words, no still in the lead"

      No, Aldo. The Yes side have drawn level. The clue is helpfully in the title of the blogpost.

      I was shocked to the core by what happened in France last night. My advice to you is to keep a respectful silence on the subject, because I don't think what you've said so far (especially last night) has done you a lot of credit.

    3. My French wife found your post tasteless Aldo. I agree with her.

    4. "If you weren't so narrow minded you would see that our foreign policy has encouraged this insanity! If we were so liberal we wouldn't be in this sorry state of affairs."

      It is precisely our liberalism that they hate, as the ISIS statement makes quite clear:

      “In a blessed attack for which Allah facilitated the causes for success, a faithful group of the soldiers of the Caliphate, may Allah dignify it and make it victorious, launched out, targeting the capital of prostitution and obscenity, the carrier of the banner of the Cross in Europe, Paris…”

    5. That statement has nothing to do with attacking liberalism in the context of a nation state, that is the UK (which Aldo was referring to). Try again.

    6. If I elaborate, if we had a more liberal attitude to other nations abroad and their way of life, the risk of attack from these muppets would be reduced (current and historically). Additionally, internally, if we weren't a nation that had so many bigots, less people would be victimised and pushed into the hands of these radicals.

    7. Glasgow Workng ClassNovember 15, 2015 at 12:46 PM

      Until now I did not realise what a fool you really are. I suppose Blair is responsible for the attacks on the Shia in Lebanon and the Six day war. Why not blame him for the Crusades.
      And here we have wee Nicola screaming to bring into Scotland thousands of
      Sunni Muslims to salvage here conscience. Seems the Glasgow Airport attempted bombing did not happen.

    8. Gfw you are more than just a troll. You are a despicable fucked up bitter and confused troll.

    9. Blair ACL, is responsible for the invasion of Iraq. He was the prime mover towards that act not GWB. Without his encouragement there would have been no invasion and no DAESH/ISIS/murderingscum.

      That is a fact that the labour party and all their little quislings will never erase. YOU are directly responsible for the dead in Paris on Friday. YOU will never be allowed to wash your hands of their blood.

    10. GWC, who is paying you to be here?

    11. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 15, 2015 at 8:19 PM

      Just read an article in which a former Pakistan ambassador has written about Islam and hard core fundamentalists. He reckons it goes back 200 yrs.

    12. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 15, 2015 at 8:25 PM

      You are wrong Parliament voted for the invasion. At least we agree on one thing, Blair probably did convince Bush11 as Thatcher convinced Bush 1 to retake Kuwait from the butcher Saddam. Saddam unlike Assad really did use chemical weapons on his people.

  6. Quite a refreshing attitude there Aldo for a unionist, most unionists that I come into contact with have been getting more verbally agressive as the polls show their lead slipping.

    One of the reasons I'm more than happy to see you post here because you at least try to put forward arguements without resorting to the usual cliches, well normally.

    Trying to score points by referring to the events in France is a bit far bit lower than your normal standards .

  7. What,is significant is the consistency of the yes vote since the referendum. It held firm and has increased very gradually. The no vote has decreased gradually.

    Aldo may comfort himself with a 1% or 2 % lead. But going into a referendum with a statistical tie would not favour the status quo. We have the momentum.

  8. Don't diss the English. I am, I voted Yes, and I will again dv

  9. A long, slow haul towards a comfortable majority for Independence, unless something unexpected happens to push matters forward very quickly

  10. Interesting stats from the Wings Panelbase poll:

    Which of these statements is closest to your view?

    41% Scotland should definitely be an independent country
    28% I'm not convinced by the case for it, but I'm not opposed to it on principle
    30% I would never vote for independence under any circumstances

    There are your up to 7 in 10 historic devo maxers.

    Serious lack of love for the union there.

    Ties in with national identity; basic split between people who are Scots first and people who are primarily British.

    Don't need much of that 28% to reverse the result.

  11. The 50-50 average is the worst kind of statistical spin, including, as it does, the huge outlier from around 2 months ago.

    Put 4 tramps in a room and then throw in Lord Sugar and their average income is now in the millions. Does that mean anything? Is it useful? Does it bear any resemblance to the real world?

    When I look at the Scottish independence polling on Wikipedia (pre and post referendum), what I see is a sea of red with the occasional wee green blotch here and there. You have not convinced the people, even now, after years of this garbage. They are doing their nut over on wings over bath just now. They know that a lead - any kind of lead - for "no" 4 years into the campaign and 5 and a half years into a conservative government is bad, bad news indeed. But I suppose someone has to spin it as positive.