We at last have our first full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase for three months - I know the previous one was in January, because I remember that I was watching Patsy Reid at Celtic Connections when the numbers came through!
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (Panelbase) :
SNP 45% (+4)
Labour 29% (-2)
Conservatives 14% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 4% (+1)
Greens 2% (+1)
(I've corrected the SNP figure, which I originally thought was 47% due to the difficulty of deciphering the Sunday Times front page.)
This is the fourth Panelbase poll since the referendum, but it's very difficult to make sense of the trend, because there have been some strange methodological changes along the way, leading to extremely volatile results. I would imagine it's unlikely that Panelbase have repeated their January mistake of asking a leading question immediately prior to the main voting intention question. That being the case, the last directly comparable poll is presumably the one from the autumn which had figures almost identical to tonight's (SNP 45%, Labour 28%). That would corroborate the pattern shown by most other pollsters of absolutely no movement since the enormous SNP lead first became apparent in October.
The most crucial thing we need to know is the fieldwork dates, but there's no doubt that they'll mostly predate the nonsense Allo Allo "scandal" - the only question is whether a little bit of the fieldwork may have been done afterwards, but I highly doubt it. So in that sense we're no further forward in judging the impact of Zinoviev II (which in my view could be almost anything, or nothing at all - voters are unpredictable at moments like this).
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I happened to be passing by George Square this afternoon (I think it must have been after the Trident demo), and I spotted this on the ground -
There was also a "vote SNP" one, but I couldn't get them all because I was in a rush!