Saturday, April 4, 2015

SNP lead is up by 6% in a Panelbase poll of particular pizazz

We at last have our first full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase for three months - I know the previous one was in January, because I remember that I was watching Patsy Reid at Celtic Connections when the numbers came through!

Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (Panelbase) : 

SNP 45% (+4)
Labour 29% (-2)
Conservatives 14% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 4% (+1)
Greens 2% (+1)

(I've corrected the SNP figure, which I originally thought was 47% due to the difficulty of deciphering the Sunday Times front page.)

This is the fourth Panelbase poll since the referendum, but it's very difficult to make sense of the trend, because there have been some strange methodological changes along the way, leading to extremely volatile results.  I would imagine it's unlikely that Panelbase have repeated their January mistake of asking a leading question immediately prior to the main voting intention question.  That being the case, the last directly comparable poll is presumably the one from the autumn which had figures almost identical to tonight's (SNP 45%, Labour 28%).  That would corroborate the pattern shown by most other pollsters of absolutely no movement since the enormous SNP lead first became apparent in October.

The most crucial thing we need to know is the fieldwork dates, but there's no doubt that they'll mostly predate the nonsense Allo Allo "scandal" - the only question is whether a little bit of the fieldwork may have been done afterwards, but I highly doubt it.  So in that sense we're no further forward in judging the impact of Zinoviev II (which in my view could be almost anything, or nothing at all - voters are unpredictable at moments like this).

*  *  *

I happened to be passing by George Square this afternoon (I think it must have been after the Trident demo), and I spotted this on the ground -

There was also a "vote SNP" one, but I couldn't get them all because I was in a rush!


  1. Might I be the first to say..

    ROFL :-D

  2. In the words of Mr Stewart :-


  3. Soooo... Jim, what was that you were saying about not losing a single seat to the SNP.

    I assume the fieldwork was done before Project Smear?

    I'd not be surprised to see another lift following on from that.

  4. Oh dear, Duncan Hothersal was telling a very disgruntled activist on twitter that the polls would start turning at the beginning of April,

    But I don't think he meant in this direction!

  5. Replies
    1. Oh God yeah, I wish I'd thought to do the headline in French.

  6. ashcroft is reporting:

    Scotland poll Panelbase/SundayTimes
    SNP 47% LAB 29% CON 14%

    1. I made that mistake to begin with as well. I practically had to get a magnifying glass out, but it does appear to be 45% for the SNP.

    2. Seems M'Good Lord is following you Mr Kelly.

  7. That cheered me up James! Thank you man!

  8. What a fucking day. What an incredible emotional, wonderful day.

    Who would think that politics can work like a great movie, filled with ups and downs, genuine emotion, disasters and triumphs. But today was such a day. And oh what a day.

    From it's very start, with the MSM making the mistake of not realising Good Friday isn't a Scottish holiday and trying to dump what will probably turn out to be their biggest smear of the campaign on what they thought was a 4 day weekend but really wasn;t to the end of the day with a Scottish poll showing genuine movement, it's been emotional.

    The real losers are the Dead Tree Press, the BBC News and Sky News (especially the latter). They've tried their best to keep the smear running. They're sitll trying as I write this at 00:30 at night. But it hasn't worked. From Twitter, even English Labour supporters are disgusted by Ed Miliband's behaviour, the whole smear was destroyed, withinn two hours by Buzzfeed - the new media, using fact checking and the basics of Good Journalism (which the Telegraph clearly did not employ) destroyed the entire story.

    Then throughout today it's been smear central, despite all evidence to the contrary. Where even the comments sections which usually hate on the SNP (like Huff Post) have been dismissing the story, where twitter has been laughing at the MSM for their coverage, they kept trying and kept failing.

    Then the SNP fought back, great performances by Nicola Sturgeon for the TV media, not sounding desperate, not failing to get the message across and making sure that the message changed - the Civil Service needed to do an enquiry. Within two hours, they complied.

    Then in the evening, the Observer piece. A note perfect table turn from Nicola, forcing Ed into a corner. He has a big decision to make. He can refuse to accede to the demand to force the Tories out. Or abandon Scotland completely. Abandon Scotland beyond the partial abandonment they've already accepted.

    Then to finish the day, a poll which was remarkable. Because it appears to show an actual change in Scottish VI. And it's a change that favours the SNP. 3% - beyond the MoE, the SNP have moved further towards destruction of Scottish Labour.

    Wow. What a day

    1. The Panelbase poll is good, but I wouldn't get too carried away with it - I interpret it as effectively a no change poll, because the last one had a dodgy methodology. I haven't seen the fieldwork dates yet, but it was almost certainly conducted mostly (or wholly) before this nonsense "scandal" broke.

    2. I think this poll continues swith the news that has been going since after the Ref that support for SNP is extremely strong and unwavering. Labour are the one's who are paying the heavy price for their collaboration with the Tories.

      Like you James, I suspect that this poll must have happened before all the nonsense from the Telegraph. I know this poll is just out but the interest will, in my view, already have moved on to the next one. I say this because of the recent nonsense. Had the Telegraph not run THAT story then more interest might have been paid to this poll.

      I think we are on the verge of seeing the SNP surpass the 50% mark in the next few weeks., thanks in a large part to the behaviour of Westminster, the Civil Service and the media.

  9. Does anyone know if Panelbases panel is still closed to new entrants, at least for politically polling?

    If so, it would very likely be no longer demographically representative. You can only keep a panel close for a short time before this starts to become a problem. For a start you loose 18 yr olds and some of the oldest group. People who decide not to bother with answering polls vanish from your panel not to be replaced... A big change in electorate interest in politics such as a rise in active voters (e.g. referendum) would not be reflected in panel make-up...


  11. Yahoo.

    Thanks James. The polls give a lift to all and i can't wait to see the faces on May .

    LIEbour/ the Cons and Fibdems. bbbiiiiieeeeeee

  12. Lets not take anything for granted folks. We still must get our vote out as well as campaign hard all the way to the vote. Lets not have another indyref situation.

    Great times just now though. The people of scotlands self confidence is growing. Just imagine what it will be like 'if' things go our way.