A few very quick observations on tonight's two leaders' specials -
1) Whoever is advising Ed Miliband on how to get back into the game in Scotland is giving him terrible advice. You don't do it by openly blackmailing voters and telling them that you, as a Labour leader, will deliberately let a Tory government in unless they do what you want. This is Scottish Labour's very own "1979 moment" - and if they don't backtrack very quickly, they may never recover from it.
2) David Cameron boasted - literally boasted - about "getting rid" of 20,000 administrators in the NHS. However useless he thinks those jobs were, they were real jobs providing people with real livelihoods. I thought it was supposed to be so unconscionable to get rid of jobs in any circumstances, and for any reason, that we simply have to keep inhuman weapons on the Clyde forever as a job protection scheme?
3) The "2017 scenario" which might lead to Scottish independence if Britain leaves the EU seems to have been firmly reignited tonight. Cameron insisting that there will be no Tory-led government without an EU referendum, and Miliband effectively ruling out a Labour government if it requires SNP support, significantly increases the chances that the referendum will indeed happen.
4) Nick Clegg started rambling utter nonsense about how no-one was going to be Prime Minister next week, and then suddenly seemed to recall that there constitutionally has to be one. He contrasted his approach to Cameron and Miliband by saying that the result the voters deliver has to be respected, and that everyone has to act responsibly within that framework. But the reality is that he's been just as irresponsible as the others - by ruling out forming any government that is reliant in however informal a way on SNP support, he's effectively ensuring that there are a wide range of arithmetical scenarios in which it will be virtually impossible for a stable government to emerge.
5) Clegg said that he would downscale Trident from four submarines to three, because its purpose is no longer to "flatten Moscow at the press of button". Er, Nick, I don't know how to break this to you, but if you no longer want to flatten cities at the press of a button and mass-murder millions of civilians, the correct number of submarines is not three, but zero. That's what nuclear missiles do, you see. They're quite limited in their application - you can't use them to tickle people's feet.
6) I burst out laughing when the young man in the audience addressed Nicola Sturgeon as "Madam First Minister". I think the reason it seemed so incongruous was that there just didn't seem to be the same distance between her and the audience that was there when the three London leaders spoke.
I see that wings is running a story that Miliband made a gaffe of the same level of stupidity as Lamont's "Scots not genetically programmed" line. It would seem on reexamination of the speech that he might be right about this. Sadly this was just the sort of thing Scottish labour needed to hear, and Murphy is now setting about with his fiendish band of diddy men to dig that hole deeper and drive an even bigger wedge between UK labour and Scotland. The Americans call it doubling down on failure - when you trick yourself into thinking that the reason a bad idea hasn't worked, is because you didn't do enough of it first time round.
ReplyDeleteThe whole Labour campaign up here has been doubling down on failure. McDougall's negative tactics in the referendum cost the Union 20% of the vote. Now they're trying the same thing in an election campaign and Surprise! it's not working again. Numpties.
DeleteMilliband has written off Scottish Labour support. He's focussing on marginal English seats. Sayonara, Baby :-)
ReplyDeleteWould I be right in thinking that the hero of the left has written off Scotland?
ReplyDeleteErr, no...
The SS Sturgeon is still steaming along quite nicely.
Steady as she goes, only a few more miles to shore.
It'd be interesting to see how, err..., unambitious Mr Milliband turns out to be.
Tho' a minor partner in a Government of National Unity might assuage his place as PM?
Just wondering who is bluffing who here?
If his strategy is actually to alienate SNP MP's, then, well, hell mend him. We will not forget.
Thing is, how many left leaning English voters would be happy with a Labour - SNP government?
ReplyDeleteSince it is Labour who refuses to participate, it is Labour who will lose membership. A link to all those regional left side parties would not come amiss.
That's why I was pleased to reflect that the winner from last night's debate was the Green Party in England.
DeleteBrian Taylor was speculating on the difficulty of the SNP having to consider backing the Tories against Labour on votes in the Commons. On what exactly? The clear, present and continuing danger for Labour is their dependence on the Tories to impose cuts and renew Trident.
ReplyDeleteWhat bullshit. Has Brian Taylor hear a word that Sturgeon has said?
DeleteAnyone else now thinking it might be a Tory/Lib coalition? Not sure how the numbers stack up. Alate surge to Tory could get them over the line. Milliband is a shambles in England.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Last night's debate will have hardened support for Cameron who was seen to have 'won' the debate, whle Miliband's stumbling performance will encourage a further drift to the Tories. 300 Conservative + 25 LD will get them over the line, and that looks perfectly possible now.
DeleteEd Miliband is an utter disgrace. I am very, very, angry.
ReplyDeleteAt this stage I feel the best thing the SNP could do at Westminster is to go over the head of Ed Miliband and to appeal directly to the left-leaning people of Britain including England to demand a constitutional convention that will abolish FPTP and the House of Lords, as these are the two constitutional elements that are preventing democratic progress and reform. I can't believe that everyone in England that votes Labour is a closet Tory.
Miliband has crossed the Rubicon. Labour is now officially a party of England; it is finished in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteJust imagine for a moment if they ever carried it through? Imagine being a Labour MP in the Commons knowing you were about to abstain in a confidence vote that would see another 5 years of Cameron, Osborne et al with all the attendant hideous consequences. Another 5 years on the opposition benches. Gone is the ministerial salary rise and the flash car and the prestige. Gone is the chance to govern. And, why? Because the SNP are so scary, the Scots so nefarious and dastardly for exercising their democratic rights, that they simply had to be denied the merest semblance of power. Better five more years of Tory hegemony than ceding the smallest amount of control over us to the SNP.
ReplyDeleteYou know, I would absolutely love it if this happened. I don't think for a minute it will. We all know Labour are so power hungry and driven by career politicians that there is no way they would ever turn down the chance to push their noses deeper into the westminster trough. The allure of government will be too much.
Just imagine though of they were that crazy? Labour would be finished in Scotland forever. I mean the party would be gone. No chance of reform, nothing. Consigned to history as the party that were so Scotophobic that they would rather will themselves into political entropy than 'deal' with the SNP.
Oh, I tell you. Next week is going to be such fun. I literally can't wait. Not because I care a toss about Westninster - I hope the whole anachronistic feudal relic ossifies and then turns to dust in the blink of an eye - but because I will LOVE IT, ABSOLUTELY LOVE IT when Labour get the hiding they deserve.
I mean we might even be able to re-phrase Tommy Sheridan's lapidary statement:
"There are more pandas in Scotland than Labour MPs!"
Can't see that happening, Labour seem quite clear that they would not abstain on a Conservative confidence motion.
DeleteBut you've done a deal with the SNP, will be the shrieks from the Tory benches. The scenes in the Commons would be carnage!
DeleteOf course it won't happen, but Miliband's slip-up and the implosion this has caused today within Labour has finally ruled out any remote chance of a last minute retraction in the polls.
Miliband is a very weak political leader. The MSM in London and the Tories have been bullying him for weeks. He capitulates again and again.
ReplyDeletePV update. Moray has c14,000 PV applications and according to the weekly Northern Scots 52% of them have already voted. So c 10% of registered vote has already voted. I can only describe todays letter page in it as rabidly Brit Nat, I wont be buying that paper again.
ReplyDeleteI used to live up in Elgin and for all it being safe SNP territory now there is still a diehard and vociferous Labour element that is furious at the current course of events. I have a few of the younger generation as friends on facebook and watching them blindly share all the Labour propaganda and anti-SNP garbage is entertaining. No-one but the old wifies read that rag anyway.
DeleteAbout the only thing it is good for is wrapping some fish and chips from Cadora!
It was good for local stuff and in the past totally neutral but the obvious Brit Nat bias in the letters page has become too much to stomach. It isn't even close to balanced in what it publishes now on that page.
DeleteAschroft has done two more Scottish polls in his last round.
ReplyDeleteNarrower SNP lead in Murphy's seat (Tories switching to him)
Bigger SNP lead in Mundell's seat (Labour switching to SNP!)
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mixed-fortunes-in-my-final-round-of-marginals/
No guessing which one the BBC will ignore.
DeleteAshcroft has done a couple of updated Scottish constituency votes. According to him Murphy has cut the SNP lead but in East Renfrewshire but in Dumfrieshire the SNP are increasing their lead.
ReplyDeleteI'm not great at reading the tables but it looks like the lead in East Renfrewshire is about the same as before until you allocate the undecideds?