Thursday, December 4, 2014

SNP and Plaid Cymru are just 1% behind the Liberal Democrats in latest Britain-wide YouGov poll

These results are becoming positively commonplace, but it's always worth pointing them out, especially given that the broadcasters are still outrageously proposing to include the Liberal Democrats in two out of the three televised leaders' debates, but to wholly exclude the SNP and the Greens from all three.  That plan looks more untenable by the day.

Britain-wide voting intentions (YouGov) :

Conservatives 32% (n/c)
Labour 31% (-2)
UKIP 17% (+1)
Greens 7% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
SNP/Plaid Cymru 5% (n/c)

In case you're wondering, YouGov don't differentiate between the SNP and Plaid in their GB-wide polls at all, although the vast bulk of the combined vote for the two parties can be assumed to be for the SNP (indeed it's perfectly possible that the SNP on their own would be on 5% anyway, after rounding).

You know the drill by now - a general election result that was even vaguely close to the figures in this poll would see the SNP becoming the third largest party in the new House of Commons, comfortably ahead of both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP.  The Scottish subsample has Nicola Sturgeon's party on 49% of the vote, and Labour on just 21%.  The fieldwork coincided at least partly with the confected "outrage" over the incident in Paisley, so it doesn't look like calling the SNP "Nazi book-burners" has done the trick for Labour any more than the Smith report itself did.

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No great surprise to see the SNP's lead increasing again in the Poll of Polls, because the outlying Populus subsample which had Labour ahead has now dropped out.  This update is based on seven subsamples - four from YouGov, one from Populus, one from Ashcroft and one from ComRes.

Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election :

SNP 43.6% (+2.6)
Labour 26.0% (-1.1)
Conservatives 15.6% (-1.0)
Liberal Democrats 6.3% (-0.7)
UKIP 4.6% (+0.7)
Greens 2.3% (-0.6)

(The Poll of Polls uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)


  1. Things are looking very promising.

  2. Ah dunno - I've jumped from being a moderate left of centre social democrat independence supporter, to right wing authoritarian 'rule Britannia' Tory unionist after 'burning paper in bin' gate. Has that not happened to anyone else?

    1. Similar happened to me this morning Scottish Skier.
      I popped in to buy my copy of the National, and some how ended up with a copy of Mein Kampf.


    2. The newspapers of choice for Nazis were Völkischer Beobachter (official) and Der Sturmer (tabloid).

      On topic, it looks like the SNP rating with YouGov is increasing, if anything. There have been more 47s and 49s in the last week or so, and hardly any results below 40. Their average over the last week will be 44-45, whereas their Scotland-only poll a month or so ago was at 42. That said, there does seem to be quite a bit of disagreement among the companies, with Ipsos and Populus at the extremes.

    3. Suggestions of a rise in dissatisfied vs falling satisfied in terms of UK government approval ratings in Scotland in Yougov too. Timing-wise could be Smith related:

      70(+5)% Dissatisfied
      21(-1)% Satisfied

      Compared to the week prior to Smith publication.

    4. I wish those councillors at least had the panache to burn a flag (Either Union or St. George would do just fine). Would have had much more material to use to accuse them of being lunatics. Oh well, we'll have to make do with what we've got.

    5. Of course I remember when Renfrewshire Council took down the saltire at the window of the SNP's office due to "health and safety".

    6. @Stoat

      Ruth Davidson had a Tory assistant that was into union flag burning if that helps.

      Also, the most British people around just love burning flags; a wee trip across to NI if you want to watch. They even put effigies of Catholics / Irish on bonfires and stuff like the English folks down south burn effigies of Scots. Parties they vote for take the Tory whip / sit on the Tory benches in Westminster despite that and links to British terrorist group such as the UFF, bigot organisations such as the OO. Dave doesn't seem to mind at all; happy to use their votes in the commons.

  3. This type of poll allows the Britnat media machine to start early and bad-mouth the independence lobby.

  4. Pity they didn't just park a van outside a council house with a few saltires in the window while they were at it. Then little Ed could have told them how much 'wethpect' he had for them as a grateful nation looked on approvingly at his obvious sincerity and passion.


  5. Analysis of the last five YouGov polls: SNP 45, Lab 25, Con 16.

  6. The subsample would be nice, with the Tories holding just two seats in Scotland, that of Willie Bain (Lab) and Alistair Carmichael (LibDem), the Nats having the rest.

    1. That sounds as if Paddington Mundell holds his seat in that scenario. Please, please, I really want rid of him!

  7. When is Skeletor's coronation? Seems to be taking forever?

  8. I find it interesting that Alistair Carmichael would hold his seat. He supports a Government that is introduced swinging austerity cuts across the UK, the bedroom tax, tuition fees for English students and the privatisation of the NHS, while his constituents enjoy free tuition fees and a public SNHS.

    Yet they are still happy to vote him into Westminster so he can continue supporting the UK Government.

    It would be interesting to hear the thoughts of anyone from his constituency on this.

    ( I read that tear gas and riot police was used in Warwick University against students demonstrating against big increases in tuition fees)