Saturday, November 22, 2014

SNP just 2% behind Liberal Democrats in Britain-wide Opinium poll

It's probably worth mentioning this poll individually, because I won't be able to make use of it for the Poll of Polls - for reasons only known to themselves, Opinium don't provide geographical breakdowns, so we never find out exactly what their Scottish subsamples show.  However, on these figures there's little doubt that the SNP have a comfortable lead in tonight's subsample.

Britain-wide voting intentions (Opinium) :

Labour 33% (+1)
Conservatives 30% (+1)
UKIP 19% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-2)
SNP 5% (+1)
Greens 4% (n/c)

The appearance of yet another poll showing the SNP and Liberal Democrats very closely-matched in terms of Britain-wide support will further increase the pressure on the broadcasters to reverse their proposal to exclude the SNP from the leaders' debates - especially given that we know on these numbers that the SNP would be well ahead of both the Lib Dems and UKIP in terms of seats in the next House of Commons.

Not too much should be read into Labour's three-point lead, because fieldwork took place between Tuesday and Thursday, and therefore preceded #WhiteVanManDanGate.


  1. James, with 1.6m Scots for independence and SNP membership currently on 92,187 and, hopefully, reaching 100,000 by Hogmanay, I think anyone who wants a copy of the new 'National' better get to their newsagents at first light. I predict it'll sell out by the end of Monday's rush hour!

  2. As the founder of Liberal Democrats for Independence this poll gives me mixed feelings. Obviously I am hurt by the way my party (although I feel it is anything but now) is suffering but at the same time I am happy to see a pro Independence Party keeping the momentum of the referendum alive.

    I truly believe that the Lib Dems UK wide are in denial mode. They are just refusing to see how bad things are and just somehow hope come the General Election everything will be alright. Well it won't; we sold our soul and are getting what we deserve. In Scotland we are at the point where at best we will return 3 MPs. Not because that is the level of our support but because of geographical (Orkney and Shetland (Carmichael)), personal (Charles Kennedy) and anti Tory vote (Moore).

    We need to stand up for Federalism and fast. We have until Thursday (the Smith Commission publication) If that fails to deliver we as a party in Scotland might be over and the UK state with it.