It's still very early days, but it looks possible that the Labour wind-up merchant who graced us with his presence yesterday is going to be bitterly disappointed - the first test of public opinion to have been entirely conducted after the contents of the Smith report became known suggests that the SNP vote remains rock solid. The Scottish subsample from today's YouGov poll (conducted on Thursday and Friday) has the SNP on 44% and Labour on 31% - very much in line with the results we've been seeing for weeks now. As noted yesterday, the two earlier polls with fieldwork that straddled the Smith announcement also showed an entirely familiar picture.
Today's poll once again shows the SNP and Plaid Cymru on a combined vote of 5% across Great Britain - just 2% behind the Liberal Democrats, and 1% behind the Greens.
It could well be that the unionist parties were always barking up the wrong tree in thinking that Smith was going to lead to the Scottish public reverting to their former status as Labour-voting sheep. There's at least an arguable case that any focus on the constitution is beneficial to the SNP - unless of course it involves Labour stunning us by going further than we ever thought possible, which simply hasn't happened in this case.
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Never one to knowingly shy away from biting the hand that feeds, Adam "IT'S THE LAW!!!!" Tomkins has followed up his stint as a Tory representative on the Smith Commission by sending this extraordinarily arrogant and patronising message to English Tory MPs -
"What we need is a sensible approach and for some of the English Tory backbenchers to wake up and stop complaining. I don’t think the Union could withstand a surge in English nationalism."
Do you get the impression that he's telling them to "shut up and eat their cereal"? That line worked a treat north of the border, and I have a feeling it might have an identical effect in the Tory shires. Let's hope Tomkins is right about the end destination of the English nationalism he's helping to whip up with his characteristically tone deaf approach.
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The latest application of the unionist black arts seems to consist of Labour spin doctors furiously trying to convince journalists that the SNP, for some unspecified reason, acted counter to their whole raison d'être by seeking to water down the Smith recommendations. We're expected to believe that the SNP actively opposed the minor welfare powers that Labour heroically secured for Scotland, and that John Swinney privately let it be known that he didn't want the power over abortion law that Maggie Chapman and Linda Fabiani were pushing for. That, of course, would make Swinney less keen on Scottish self-government than the Tories or the Lib Dems, both of whom were perfectly willing to transfer control over abortion law without the "further consideration" that is now required.
I'll be blunt with you - I'm not convinced. Labour seem to have overlooked Rule 1 of concocting a Big Lie - it only works if people don't start laughing at it within the first two seconds.
Let's hope so James. Yesterday ICM reported that 63% of Scots support the full devolution of tax and welfare. It's a pretty significant majority, and will make a statement to the unionist parties who are too busy squawking over the SNP's less-than-enthusiastic response to the Smith Commission. The majority of Scots feel the same.
ReplyDeletePS- just read a tweet that is saying that ICM poll released had a secondary question asking Scots which of the following options they preferred: independence, more powers, or status quo. 42% polled opted for independence, 37% for more powers, and 21% for status quo.
ReplyDeleteSee more detail about the ICM poll at the links below
Deletehttp://futureukandscotland.ac.uk/news/smith-poll-holyrood-should-control-tax-welfare-report-press-release (summary)
http://futureukandscotland.ac.uk/sites/default/files/news/Smith%20public%20opinion%20Henderson%20Lineira%20FINAL%2024%20Nov.pdf (tables)
The problem with the ICM poll is the fieldwork dates. What we need is an up-to-date poll to see what the response to the actual Smith proposals (and the way they've been spun) is.
DeleteI agree, that will provide a real indication.
DeleteThat questions sounds very much right with eyes half shut squinting at combinations of other polls. Support for the status quo has been going down steadily since July, and whereas before the campaign support for Indy + More powers was about 65%, now it's 79%.
DeleteThe question will be over the next weeks, how happy people are with Smith, and how many move to Indy in disgust at the poor package. That's the battleground.
It also seems to show that a large majority of those who pre-ref wanted Devo-Max voted NO, rather than for Independence, which is also supported by the last week's swings in the polls before the Ref. I think it puts meat on the conclusion that the Vow, even if not convincing all people, gave them an "excuse" to vote NO.
I think for a radical switch of voter intentions, it would have required labour to go further than any other Westminster party in devolving power to Scotland. They didn't and now engaged in a bizarre project of attempting to "reset" Scottish politics back to "the way it used to be" by essentially trying to get folk to forget the "vow" by basically repeating the "vow". Its just going to remind folk of how little actually got delivered and their part in it. That Cameron tied acceptance of this to EVEL puts UK labour on the back foot. I don't MIliband is going to endorse anything the smith commission put forward and may well offer "killing off smith" in exchange for "killing off EVEL". But something tells me that Cameron might not play ball. Either way, the winner here is Cameron.
ReplyDeleteIt amazes me that unionists still think devolution will "kill nationalism stone dead".
ReplyDelete@Anonymous
ReplyDeleteThey have not got a lot else to hope for.
I've never expected the Smith Commission to make much of a difference either way to next year's election. Most people will have forgotten about it sharpish. Even if the SNP don't end up doing quite as well as current polls suggest, I can't imagine that the Smith Commission would bear any responsibility for that.
ReplyDelete"Seeing all welfare powers being taken away at the last minute and seeing Labour argue against the devolution of the minimum wage are things I don’t think I’ll ever forget. In the last hours of the Smith deliberations, the Tories were getting direct input from Westminster government departments and cutting deals with Labour to avoid anything that might affect English votes for English laws.” - Smith Comission insider.
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