Just a very quick update on yesterday's post - as expected, it has been confirmed that the SNP won the popular vote on Thursday, along with the most seats. Here are the full figures from the party's website -
SNP 502,201 - 32.32% (+4.46% on 2007)
Lab 487,884 - 31.39% (+3.24%)
Con 206,856 - 13.31% (-2.26%)
LD 102,399 - 6.59% (-6.10%)
Grn 34,252 - 2.20% (+0.16%)
Ind 184,329 - 11.86% (+0.98%)
Oth 36,055 - 2.32% (+0.9%)
These numbers of course relate only to first preference votes, which is the standard way of measuring the popular vote in countries that use STV (basically the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Malta).
I was slightly bemused to see Kate Higgins suggest on Scottish Roundup that Ian Smart's analysis of the results was "far from triumphalist". He may have had some cautionary words for his own side, but he also made the wild claims that Labour had won the popular vote, and that the SNP needn't concern themselves too much with coalition negotiations around the country. Well, he's been proved completely wrong on the first count, and I don't think I'm sticking my neck out too far in suggesting he's light-years off-beam on the second count as well.
Yes, it was a tight election, much tighter than last year's - but the SNP won, and on every measure.
An island of sense in an ocean of shit...
ReplyDeletePosted by:
Bill Pickford (who refuses to open a Google account!)
One of the annnoying stats, used both by Cochrane in the telegraph, and somebody in the Scotsman was that the SNP fell from 45% last year to 33% this. This ignores the 12 percent of the vote that went to Independents. Most of those are in the highlands, islands, and other rural areas. I'd imagine that most years the "independent" vote splits fairly evenly between libs, tories, and SNP in Holyrood, Westminster, and Euro elections. Very little would go to Labour. Has anyone figures on who these independents vote for. My hunch is that many will be disaffected libs --so while the snp definitely declined on 2011, its more likely that they are on 38% lab on 33 tories on 16 and libs on 9
ReplyDeleteYes, another example is that the SNP won just 20% in the 2010 Westminster election, and 45% in the Holyrood election a year later. Does that mean Cochrane and his ilk would have said the SNP vote had climbed 25%? Of course not, they made a comparison with the previous Holyrood election, just like the rest of us did.
ReplyDeleteHolyrood and local elections are different, as the results on the same day in 2007 showed. You have to compare like with like, not cast around for whichever contrived comparison will best suit the narrative you want to peddle.
When I buy an apple I don't want a pear. Same thing with the election results I look at the last one for the same council. Had a look at the Dundee seats with increased percentages, SNP top the poll in 7 out of 8. Most of the Green's 2nd pref in the West End seat went to the SNP candidate so that knocked the Tory out. You must find out where the 2nd pref are going in these multi-member wards and we did that in that ward.
ReplyDeleteIn fairness, the SNP didn't win on every measure - they're the biggest party on only 11 councils compared to Labour's 14 (which Johann Lamont described as "double that of the SNP". S'pose it's too late for voters to punish her for innumeracy).
ReplyDeleteI like Kate Higgins posts. They read like the reasonable, well argued kind of stuff I wish all Labour Party supporters would write.
ReplyDeleteThen I remember she's SNP and I just don't understand where she's coming from at all.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2146939/Darling-hosts-secret-summit-kill-Scottish-independence-Edinburgh-home.html
ReplyDeletehttp://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/unionist-campaign-calls-on-blair-to-embrace-its-cause.17641581
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/darling-says-blair-will-fight-scots-breakaway-7769669.html