YouGov poll shows commanding lead for the SNP

Just for the moment, we seem to have moved firmly into 'pinch me' territory. A second Saturday evening in a row has brought a dramatic advance for the SNP in the latest YouGov poll...

Constituency vote :

SNP 45% (+5)
Labour 32% (-5)
Conservatives 10% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)

Regional list vote :

SNP 39% (+4)
Labour 29% (-4)
Conservatives 12% (-)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-)
Greens 7% (+1)

Incidentally, these figures don't necessarily disprove the theory that the Ipsos-Mori poll a few days ago was overstating the SNP, because a hugely significant event occurred between the sampling for that survey and this one - the Sun's endorsement of the Nationalists. Like Ipsos-Mori, the projected seat totals from this poll would just about give the parties in favour of an independence referendum an outright majority between them. This is also the first poll for which the fieldwork was carried out after a large number of postal votes had already been cast, suggesting that a certain percentage of damage for Labour may already have been done.

There is also a new Progressive Scottish Opinion poll out -

Constituency vote :

SNP 46% (+9)
Labour 36% (-7)
Conservatives 9% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)

Regional list vote :

SNP 38% (+1)
Labour 37% (-7)
Conservatives 10% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+5)
Greens 5% (+3)

These figures don't tell us quite so much, partly because PSO don't have a great track record, and partly because the fieldwork dates largely overlap with last week's YouGov poll, and also with the Ipsos-Mori poll. But for what it's worth, it is a further piece of evidence that the SNP were in the lead as of last weekend.