Wednesday, February 16, 2011

SNP storm back into the lead with Ipsos-Mori

Hot on the heels of Brian Souter's potentially game-changing donation to the SNP, tonight brings word of the Nationalists' best opinion poll showing since...well, it must be quite a while ago as I can't remember exactly when! Here are the full figures (or 'full' for the four largest parties) -

Constituency vote :

SNP 37% (+6)
Labour 36% (-5)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-1)

Regional list vote :

SNP 35% (+3)
Labour 33% (-3)
Conservatives 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)

Note : I'm not quite sure whether I've got the Tories and the Lib Dems the right way round on the list vote, as I've seen contradictory information (and of course I don't pay my Murdoch levy).

As ever, there is a health warning - there's always the danger that one poll in isolation might be a rogue, and in any case Ipsos-Mori seemed to overstate the SNP in the run-up to last year's general election. But as with the Souter donation, the real value of this poll could be its impact on the media narrative. Nick Pearce's complacent suggestion earlier today that the result of the election was bound to be a minority Labour administration or a Lib-Lab coalition unless Alex Salmond could produce "something dramatic out of the hat" is a fine example of the narrative that's just (for the time being, at any rate) been completely blown away.


  1. Only one poll so lets not get carried away but encouraging all the same. I did feel sorry for the chap who left a comment on a Caledonian Mercury article a few days ago saying with 49% poll ratings for Labour the SNP should just give up. Well, a week is a long time in politics.

  2. Didn't Ezio tell you he'd produce a rabbit from the hate for us, James?

    Ezio Auditore da Firenze - Delivering for Scotland

  3. Your interventions are never less than sensational, Ezio!

    Marcia - yes, that 49% poll never really rang true. We'll have to wait and see if this one is closer to the truth.