Monday, December 7, 2009

SNP up with ICM, but down with YouGov

The detailed figures from Saturday evening's two UK-wide polls have been released, and once again there are mixed fortunes for the SNP. The YouGov Scottish subsample curiously shows a decline of support for Labour, the SNP and the Conservatives, with the Liberal Democrats enjoying a six-point jump. Here are the full figures -

Labour 34% (-2)
SNP 22% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 19% (+6)
Conservatives 19% (-3)
Others 5% (+1)

The raw 22% share is clearly disappointing for the SNP, although the overall Labour lead is once again notably more modest than the most recent full-scale YouGov poll indicated. After the previous YouGov subsample had offered a rare glimmer of hope to the Scottish Tories, they once again return to a more familiar sub-20 rating.

ICM do not provide a specific Scottish breakdown, instead lumping the country together with northern England. Here are the latest subsample figures for that highly artificial 'region' -

Labour 38% (-1)
Conservatives 27% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (-2)
SNP 10% (+1)
Others 10% (+4)

This is much better news for the SNP, with 10% being at the upper end of their normal range of support in the ICM 'northern region'.


  1. We are lumped in with Northern England?

    Does that not show contempt for the very real difference between Scotland and Northern England?
    Or ignorance, which amounts to the same thing?

  2. I suppose in some ways we should count ourselves lucky - at least YouGov, Populus, ComRes and Angus Reid all provide Scottish breakdowns. As far as I'm aware there are no pollsters at all that provide specific Welsh subsamples.

  3. It is ridiculous that with an entirely different political set up, the whole of Scotland should be lumped in with Northern England. It must distort the figures for both areas rendering them meaningless. Clearly the SNP does not have 10% support within its electoral area, buy the same token, the figures for the Tories and Labour in Northern England must be misleading too.

    I wonder why they would do that. It can't be of use to anyone at all.