Monday, November 16, 2009

YouGov : SNP close gap to just one point

After a few days of relative gloom, a small piece of good news for the SNP. The Scottish subsample from the latest UK-wide YouGov poll for the Sunday Times shows the party in a virtual dead heat with Labour, with the Conservatives yet again flatlining at roughly the 20% mark. Here are the full figures -

Labour 30% (-2)
SNP 29% (?)
Conservatives 20% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 17% (-)
Others 4% (?)

The reason the percentage change figures are incomplete is that YouGov lumped the SNP in with the 'others' in their last poll. Unlike the ComRes subsample, the fieldwork for this poll partly took place after the result of the Glasgow North-east by-election was known. However, by all accounts most people respond to YouGov polls within a few hours of receiving the invitation, so the chances are that these figures are relatively unaffected by any knock-on effect from Labour's victory.

Incidentally, this subsample is one of the many that flatly contradicts Mike Smithson's repeated assertions that Labour are faring better in Scotland than in the rest of the UK - the party is down nine points in Scotland from its 2005 level, exactly the same drop as in Great Britain as a whole.