Astounding YouGov MRP poll puts the SNP within eight seats of overtaking the Tories UK-wide - and with a 26% chance of holding the balance of power

The title of yesterday's blogpost was 'Using an election to double as an independence referendum is the ONLY way independence can and will ever be won. Resisting it just delays the inevitable and causes needless pain along the way.' I realised afterwards that I'd inadvertently 'done a Stew' and completely contradicted myself in the space of a few days - what I should have said is 'using an election to double as an independence referendum is the ONLY way independence can ever be won, unless the SNP get lucky and hold the balance of power at Westminster'.  The first YouGov MRP poll since the general election confirms that there's a non-trivial chance of the latter happening, because in 26% of simulations a centre-left Labour-led coalition can be cobbled together, but only with the SNP's help.  In most cases this would have to be a five-party coalition involving Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid Cymru, but there's an 11% chance of four parties being enough and a 3% chance of three parties being enough (ie. Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP).  So it would just be a question of whether the SNP are willing to play hardball and to make an independence referendum a condition of installing a Labour PM.

Remarkably, the seats projection shows the SNP within just eight seats of overtaking the Conservatives UK-wide - 

Reform UK 271 (+266)

Labour 178 (-233)

Liberal Democrats 81 (+9)

Conservatives 46 (-75)

SNP 38 (+29)

Greens 7 (+3)

Plaid Cymru 7 (+3)

The SNP would have roughly two-thirds of Scottish seats, and once again it's important to stress that this is in no way inconsistent with the result of the Hamilton by-election.  The Westminster seat of Hamilton & Clyde Valley would be one of the one-third of seats staying in unionist hands, with Labour projected to hold it by a margin of 30% to 27%, and with Reform in a strong third place on 23% - pretty much bang in line with the by-election result.

Most of the crude uniform swing projections from standard opinion polls have Reform failing to win any Scottish seats at all, but that is categorically not the case here - Reform would actually construct a 'mini light blue wall' in the south of Scotland, taking Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale and Dumfries & Galloway.

One thing that is consistent with the uniform swing projections, though, is that Labour are shown to be on course to hold Na h-Eileanan an Iar by some distance, with the SNP not even in second place.  I'm fairly sure that's a wonky projection caused by the unusual baseline figures in the constituency from last year's election.  In reality, if the SNP take two-thirds of Scottish seats, Na h-Eileanan an Iar is pretty likely to be one of them unless Torcuil Crichton has built up a really sizeable personal vote.

Although the Tories are projected to hold a couple of Scottish seats, both of them are on a knife edge.  The SNP are only one point behind in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, while in Gordon & Buchan there is effectively a three-way tie between the Tories, the SNP and Reform UK on 24% apiece - with the Tories only ahead by a tiny fraction.

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