Yesterday people were looking at the result of the Kirkintilloch by-election, and because there was a Reform surge and an SNP collapse, they were rather simplistically assuming there must have been a big direct swing of votes from SNP to Reform. Of course it doesn't necessarily work like that, and especially not in a low-turnout local by-election. Reform could have gained their votes mainly from unionist parties or from people who abstained last time around, while the SNP could have lost votes to Labour, the Greens and abstentions.
I've been getting asked for a while to write a blogpost about where the polls suggest Reform's Scottish votes are coming from, so this may be as good a time as any. The most recent Scottish poll was from Find Out Now, whose data tables have their limitations, so instead I've looked at the next most recent poll, which was from Survation.
How current Reform UK supporters voted on the 2021 Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
Conservatives 44%
SNP 16%
Labour 10%
Liberal Democrats 4%
So above all else it's the Tories who are taking a hammering from the Reform surge, and the Kirkintilloch result (which saw the Tories lose two-thirds of their vote share) is consistent with that. I know some people will instantly leap on the fact that Reform are taking more votes from the SNP than from Labour, but remember the baseline here is the 2021 result, when the SNP took 48% of the vote and Labour only took 22%. So pound-for-pound, Labour are losing more votes to Reform than the SNP are. Specifically, Labour have lost 7% of their 2021 vote to Reform, while the SNP have lost only 5% of theirs in the same direction.
That point can be underlined by using the 2024 general election result, when Labour were slightly ahead of the SNP, as the baseline instead.
How Reform UK supporters (ie. people planning to vote Reform in Holyrood 2026) voted in the 2024 Westminster general election:
Reform UK 42%
Labour 23%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Conservatives 7%
SNP 1%
It's hard to escape the impression here that quite a lot of voters who switched from Tory to Labour in 2024 are now switching from Labour to Reform.
Another way to get a sense of the impact of Reform on the SNP's fortunes is to look at the breakdown of the SNP's 2021 vote - ie. how those people are planning to vote next year.
How people who voted SNP on the 2021 constituency vote are planning to vote now:
SNP 71%
Labour 9%
Greens 7%
Reform UK 5%
Liberal Democrats 3%
Conservatives 3%
Alba 1%
So although Reform UK are a non-trivial problem for the SNP, they're not quite the giant monster at the window that people are imagining. Farage remains disproportionately a threat to the unionist parties.
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The politics of Reform are just very different from those of SNP as Reform tends to appeal to Conservative and Labour voters.
ReplyDeleteI completely agree.
DeleteReform UK appeals mainly to right-wing Conservative and disillusioned Labour voters, pushing policies that clash with Scotland’s progressive values.
The SNP, on the other hand, stands for a fairer, more equal Scotland—protecting public services, defending Scotland’s place in Europe, and ensuring decisions are made in Scotland’s best interests.
Reform reinforces Westminster control while the SNP offers a real alternative.
Voting SNP is essential: to secure a future shaped by Scotland, not dictated by Westminster politics.
Reform hardly reinforces Westminster control. It's anti elite institutions like Westminster.
DeleteReform is more concerned about Farage's bank account.
DeleteAnon at 5.41. Reform wants you to think that. You have been taken in.
DeleteTo see this think about EU policy. Reform want to stay out and SNP want to go back in which is totally different from each other. So it is unlikely Reform can attract SNP voters.
ReplyDeleteAgreed - the two parties could hardly be more different as far as policy towards the EU is concerned.
DeleteBut SNP voters are going to Reform? Puzzling
DeletePerhaps they are drunk? Or for a bet ?
DeleteKirkintilloch: labour threw resource at.
ReplyDeleteThis very useful blog piece makes it clear—Reform is hammering the Tories and Labour far more than the SNP. With 71% of 2021 SNP voters staying loyal and unionist parties fracturing, the SNP is in a strong position for 2026. A pro-independence movement united behind SNP can take the advantage and return a pro indy government.
ReplyDeleteThe argument of anon 12.47 overlooks SNP’s declining overall vote share, growing discontent over governance, and Reform’s primary impact on Tories, not Labour. These points may weaken SNP’s 2026 prospects.
Delete2.05: The SNP remains the strongest pro-independence force, with the highest voter retention and a fractured unionist opposition. A united independence movement can secure victory in 2026 and push Scotland forward. #YesScotland
DeleteBrilliant, James. Concise and easy to understand. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteFully agree - well written entry by James.
DeleteI'll second that. Crystal clear. Thanks.
DeleteI’m one of those former SNP voters who has gone over to Reform (and while certainly a minority among those I know who have made that journey - I’m far from alone). Praying for a big splash from us next year!
ReplyDeleteHi 3.16: interesting comment. Can you clarify and explain what attracts you to reform as a former SNP voter?
Delete3.16: Gee. Really. What a totally believable and organic political journey! From the SNP to Reform—just the most natural and common transition. And you’re "far from alone"? Incredible! Almost as if there's a coordinated effort to *pretend* this is a thing. But no, surely not. Totally genuine I'm 100% sure. 👍
DeleteLiar.
DeleteI went from Reform to the SNP so our completely made up stories cancel each other out.
DeleteI recently defected from Peter A Bell's party to the Liberal Democrats. And I'm just the tip of the iceberg, let me tell you.
DeleteI don’t know why you all find this so difficult to believe considering the above article notes that a full 5% of the 2021 SNP vote are in the Reform column. Voters who have made this switch are really not very hard to find at all. The numbers of 2014 Yessers who are now on the Reform column are significantly higher still given that the SNP had lost a large chunk of its Brexit-backing vote well before 2021.
DeleteFor me, there were a wide range of factors for making this shift, but it will come as no surprise that the largest one is immigration.
Anon 4.04: Thank you for sharing your perspective. You mentioned that immigration was the largest factor in your decision to shift support. I’d be interested to hear more about what specifically influenced your view on this—was it particular policies, broader trends, or something else? It would be helpful to understand your perspective in more detail. What could the SNP do in this space to attract you back?
DeleteI have not moved to Reform and will not do so but I think it's not so hard to imagine.
DeleteIt's like the labour folk pretending 20% of their vote wouldn't look favourably on independence.
Some people who voted snp are small n nationalists of the left and think snp has become a bit wishy washy.
Do Reform agree that 2nd home owners from England and further afield should be returned to their homeland? Noticed a number of older folk coming because they like Scotland social care package but have never contributed to local taxes.
DeleteAnon at 4.04. Your transparency is almost endearing, but largely laughable. How are things in Daily Heil land? Oh sorry have I exposed your?
Delete4.48 is the sort of activist who drives people to reform. The Labour activist who would call the snp fascist back in the day.
Delete@ the SNP-to-Reform voter: do you support independence? Did you support it before but not anymore?
DeleteIndependence isn't a live issue so it isn't a determining factor. When it is, you may see things revert.
DeleteI don't think any one in Scotland is voting reform because Labour/Tories aren't unionists enough or SNP isn't independence minded enough.
The issue isn't on the agenda so voters can look at other parties for multitude of reasons. SNP to Labour voters aren't suddenly anti independence in theory either.
"The numbers of 2014 Yessers who are now on the Reform column are significantly higher still given that the SNP had lost a large chunk of its Brexit-backing vote well before 2021."
DeleteThis is actually a really good point.
It's the whole Yes community which take/took the SNP to its heights.
My parents were brexit voters and voted yes.
rp:
DeleteCorrection.
The SNP reached its heights under Nicola Sturgeon who is strongly pro EU.
Anyone who moves to Reform needs their head examined. Scrap the NHS ? Well that's what yer pal Nigel wants.
DeleteAnon at 5.10. Care to explain? The SNP to Reform move does happen, but not because of immigration unless you are completely ignorant of Scotlands declining population and its urgent need for people to come to Scotland . But yeah, immigration. As I said, laughably transparent.
DeleteFarage and his mob have the British media amplifying and inflating every result and word they say, and when they constantly invite him on TV never interrupt him
ReplyDeleteThe Tories and Labour power over the media has drained
The SNP are the enemy of the British state therefore the British media's job is to stifle them, that is the single reason Alba ever got one single minute of airtime in Scotland, because the media tried to use them to destroy the SNP just like they use the Tories Labour and Liberal Democrats
Every party that is against the SNP is a gift to the British state and their media to use against the only party that can stand against them
Any time the SNP are invited to be on TV they're immediately ambushed into the position of defending themselves from at least four other parties and the presenters
Absolutely agree. The way the British media operates is clear—they prop up unionist parties while doing everything they can to undermine the SNP. That’s because the SNP is the only real threat to the British establishment’s grip on Scotland.
DeleteThis is exactly why we all need to vote SNP.
The *only* way to ensure Scotland has a strong pro-independence government at Holyrood is by backing the SNP and not allowing Westminster’s divide-and-conquer tactics to weaken our movement. Every seat matters, and every vote counts in standing up to the British state and its media machine.
Voters seem to be far more 'fluid' in who they support nowadays, than previously.
ReplyDeleteAccepting that, it is satisfying to see that SNP appears to be retaining the vast majority of theirs.
As I have stated previously, Reform are NOT taking any really substantial amount of SNP votes - it is the unionist parties who are leaking to them in a much larger fasion.
Not surprising, as SNP is completely in favour of a return to the EU, whereas Labour and Tories remain committed to the disastrous BrexSHIT and Reform will NEVER countenance rejoining.
SNP will continue to hoover up the vast majority of Pro-Eu voters in Scotland, remembering that the most recent poll on that topic showed around 70% of Scots heavily in favour of going back in and scrapping BrexSHIT altogether.
I am also of the strong opinion that, as more and more scrutiny is turned on Reform's nonsensical 'policies', more and more Scots will see them for exactly what they are - nothing but a bunch of Racist, Fascist, Elitist ENGLISH NATIONALUST Spivs.
Indeed, I agree fully. It is extremely heartening to witness the SNP's steadfast retention of support, under John Swinney and Kate Forbes, with unionist factions faltering and falling in contrast.
DeletePlenty former snp voters voted for brexit, especially in the north east.
DeleteSnp/tory switchers isn't as big a crossing of the rubicon as the likes of David Francis seems to think. The floating voter can go between many parties.
SNP will continue to hoover up the vast majority of Pro-Eu voters in Scotland, remembering that the most recent poll on that topic showed around 70% of Scots heavily in favour of going back in and scrapping BrexSHIT altogether.
DeleteIf EU support is on 70%, the SNP certainly aren't getting the vast majority of it. It's pretty rare that they poll 35% these days, so they're probably not getting a majority of it at all.
Keaton:
DeleteRejoining the EU remains a policy that enjoys high levels of salience with the Scottish electorate. The Lib Dems offer a gradual policy of joining first the CU then the SM and then the EU. However SNP policy is to rejoin the EU straight away. It is therefore a stronger policy than that offered by the Lib Dems. Overall therefore the SNP are positioned as regards this issue of the EU.
David Francis is only happy if the snp voters are all a monolith of opinion (preferably guardian zealots) rather than the national liberation coalition of all stripes which any successful independence movement always is.
DeleteFine if you just want to support political parties. Not so good if you want independence first and then let the people choose their path.
The snp should be pro eu but also not demonise people who are not. It's not rocket science.
DeleteAnon at 6.56
DeleteKeston wasn't debating the strength of the snps eu policy. He was suggesting it's not the silver bullet to 70% support.
Anon 9.59
DeleteOh wow, groundbreaking insight!
Who knew that a single policy wouldn’t magically generate 70% support overnight? Next, you'll be telling me the sky is blue.
The SNP’s EU stance is about long-term economic and social benefits, not instant polling miracles—but hey, why let nuance get in the way?
We also do need to be wary of defining people as "SNP voters" or "Labour voters" too in a simple sense. As Labour used to do.
ReplyDeleteMany voters switched from SNP to Labour between 2021 and 2024. As they did Labour to SNP in 2015. If some of those voters then go to Reform its a complicated picture.
They're the sort of folk you need to be taking back.
I completely agree.
DeletePolitical identities are fluid, and many voters shift based on circumstances rather than rigid party loyalty. Instead of "SNP voters" or "Labour voters," we could refer to them as persuadable potential SNP voters, swing voters, floating voters, electoral shift voters, non-tribal voters etc.
Understanding their motivations and priorities and treating them with respect is key to winning them back to the SNP.
4.41 . Well said.
DeleteThe voters who did not vote SNP this time did not go across to Labour. The SNP vote decreased, but the labour vote did not increase. The swing to Labour did not happen in terms of vote numbers. Votes were withheld from SNP. We need to persuade those who abstained to vote for SNP once again and not abstain in 2026. And we need to try to attract the estimated 15% of labour voters who support Indy to come over. Thy would be the game changer.
DeleteOnly the diehard snp voters voted snp in 2024. I don't think that's a fair metric.
ReplyDeleteThe switchers had already left by then.
Almost half the entire electorate (or those who turned out) voted SNP in 2021. It was the party's all-time high vote share. Is that a particularly fair metric?
Delete30% still voted SNP in 2024. Bit of a stretch to call such a huge chunk of the population "diehards".
Yea it was 2024 I mentioned, not 2021?
DeleteI agree that's the metric to use.
I also agree 30% is a good amount and represents the core support which is relatively high for a political party.
Surely the voters who did not vote SNP in 2024 but who did vote SNP in 2021 are the ones who are interesting to study as they are floating voters?
DeleteThere's about 20% of the electorate predisposed to vote SNP who didn't. Using the 2021 metric let's you see that. That's the point I was making. The switchers had already switched or scunnered by 2024..
DeleteExactly 5.03. That's the point I was making. Therefore the 1% figure is a bit misleading when considering the floating voter.
Delete5.01 I meant to say!
DeleteIt is the best metric to use yes if you want to get independence i would suggest. Shows you the floating voter we need to reclaim.
Delete"I also agree 30% is a good amount and represents the core support"
DeleteIf you want to "agree" with that, you'll have to find someone who actually said it. I didn't. What I said is that 30% of the population couldn't be diehards. You appear to believe they are. I totally disagree with you.
Depends how you define the word.
DeleteScotland's pro independence core feels about 30%. The sort who will continue to vote snp to keep it on the agenda. I wouldn't think it's much lower than that. What do you think the floor is?
We don't live in the 1990s anymore. Independence is supported by half the electorate and a proportion of whom will vote accordingly.
I mean the anti snp rehotric was pretty palpable where I was last year and they still managed 30%. Anecdotally saw many friends go from snp to labour.
DeleteI genuinely believe in a country who has half supporting a separate state, the main independence party fluctuating between at lowest 25% to 50% would be the expected par for the course.
If a country cannae even muster a third of its nation as strong independence party supporters, it's never getting it anytime soon.
Delete5:30 genius post.
DeleteBecause history has *definitely* shown that every successful independence movement started with an overwhelming majority from day one.
I mean, just look at Brexit—totally required 70-80% support, right? Oh wait… it scraped by with 52%, and yet somehow still happened.
But sure, let’s pretend Scotland’s situation is entirely different!
It will come as a shock to many this is day one of unionism rather than 300 odd years old.
DeleteI'm sure Ireland, the US and Eastern Europe would love to compare their national liberation to leaving a trade bloc, as important as it may be!
TBH......ANY so-called SNP supporter/voter who says they have switched to Racist, Fascists, Elitist, BLATANTLY ENGLISH NATIONALIST Reform, was a VERY BAD fit both for the SNP and wider Yes Movement.
ReplyDeleteThat kind of TRASH we can well do without.
Absolutely. The SNP stands for progressive values—championing net zero policies, LGBTQ+ rights, the EU, racial equality, and strong hate speech protections. Those embracing Reform’s far-right agenda were never aligned with SNP’s inclusive vision for Scotland.
DeleteDavid Francis is all about minimising the indy vote, not maximising it.
DeleteSpeaking. Truth to Power, Kamala. ✊🏻
DeleteThese deplorables make me sick. Intolerant bastards! We’ll purge them and their blood from Progressive Scotland’s soil.
DeleteDavey Francis - nope give them a decent education instead.
DeleteThey were never SNP/Indy in the first place. There is no bridge that wide.
DeleteMy earlier opinion that Reform UK Voters, no matter where they come from, are Stinking Human Trash, still applies.
ReplyDeleteI have seen or heard nothing to make me alter that opinion.
They are STILL Stinking Human Trash.
With all due respect, of course..................
I agree but you'd be absolutely murder to go for a pint wae .
DeleteAgree fully. Unlike Reform UK, which promotes division and regressive policies, the SNP focuses on building a fairer, greener, and more cooperative society. The SNP stands for progressive policies including net zero, EU membership, social justice, LGBTQ+ rights, clamp-downs on hate speech, womens reproductive rights, etc. Reform does not.
DeleteWe will crush them with love!
DeleteAnon5.44 is right . These on6jectives though are best reached by independence. How are the SNP moving us forward and getting us oot o the UK ?
DeleteAlba gu brath!
I wish I could speak Spanish.
DeleteLa independencia no se toma, se pide educada y humildemente, sin realmente poner el corazón en ello, porque ¿de qué sirve, si tu trabajo depende de llegar hasta aquí y no más allá?
Delete“Independence is not taken, it is asked politely and humbly, without really putting your heart into it, because what good is it, if your work depends on getting here and not beyond?”
ReplyDeleteIf the people who want independence for Scotland only complain and moan that somebody else isn't doing it for them then you can forget all about independence
ReplyDeleteYou wont get independence from England by asking, you have to break an egg or two, and by that I mean a lot of eggs
Correct. And who must be at the vanguard of all of that? The leader of the party Scots trust with independence.
DeleteIt worked wonders in 2011-2014. We need more of that.
How could anyone still vote SNP is astonishing, you couldn’t possibly be happy at how Scotland is being run? Open your eyes
ReplyDeleteAnd see the disaster that is England !
DeleteBest performing NHS in the UK. Free prescriptions. Lower water bills. Clean water and rivers. No University tuition fees or huge student debts. Free bus travel for over 60’s. Nationalised Railway system. Water supply inn public ownership. Yeah you’re right. What a complete fanny you are. Jog on and practice your flute.
DeleteAnon at 2.01 has gone very quiet.
Delete