GB-wide voting intentions (More In Common, 21st-24th February 2025):
Conservatives 25% (+2)
Reform UK 24% (-2)
Labour 23% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+4)
Greens 8% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
23% is the lowest figure for Labour in a More In Common poll since the general election, and is only 1% above the lowest post-election figure for Labour across all polling firms. And Starmer ought to be far more concerned by that vote share than by being in third place. Paradoxically, third place is almost a boon for him because it's a by-product of the right-wing vote being split down the middle, which is actually keeping Labour in contention. But even though that split has persisted for months now, I still struggle to imagine it continuing for four more years until the next general election. One way or another, the right-wing vote will consolidate, meaning that unless Labour's own vote recovers radically, they will suffer a record-breaking defeat that will make them nostalgic for 1983 and 2019.
Interestingly, More In Common agrees with the new YouGov poll in that it shows Reform UK dipping by a couple of percentage points and the Tories recovering a bit. That could be the start of a new trend, or it could just be margin of error noise replicated by two different pollsters by pure coincidence.
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I said yesterday that Labour's cynicism in cutting the overseas aid budget to spend more on the military was a reflection of the new Trumpian post-morality transactional world, but I'm slightly stunned at how little attempt they're making to hide that fact. When criticised for the aid cuts, the Defence Secretary John Healey said that "hard power" was more important than "soft power" - as if he couldn't even imagine anyone thinking that humanitarian funding could possibly have any purpose or value other than as a projection of British power. The idea that rich countries have a moral obligation to assist the world's poorest would, it seems, be entirely alien to him.
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I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 last month, and so far the running total stands at £1631, meaning that 24% of the target of £6800 has been raised. If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE. Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
IMO, it is only a matter of time until the Fascist, Racist Scumbag Reform bubble bursts.
ReplyDeleteTheir wee orange 'god across the water' in Washington is presently nose-diving into dictatorial insanity and popular disgust and Reform will soon follow that piece of garbage into the bin.
Eleanor was saying the very same at the bus stop this morning.
DeleteEven if that's true they've already pushed politics much further to the right and Labour don't seem interested in pushing back.
DeleteI see Francis is back with his usual drivel.
DeleteA lot will depend on which direction the most popular/habitually accessible to voters media decides to land the nitty gritty. Starmer is already invoking the WW2 rhetoric and that always perks up the attention and empathy of nostalgia-driven UK voters - which will go down strongly with anti-independence voters in Scotland as well.
ReplyDeleteReform can misuse the logic behind foreign aid initiatives and turn it into taxpayers money being sent overseas 'bad'. His target voters are not the most sophisticated in a sense and can't be counted on to see beyond surfaces of messaging. He goes for the simplistic quick fix and attend to the British home front first rhetoric which has its appeal. We assume Scottish voters see beyond that - but they don't, even the more malleable independence voters who just like a bit of mixing up for the sake of it, are attracted to Farage.
Depending on how Starmer is seen to deal with Trump, and with the Britain needs to defend itself/WW2 phrases - he could easily win back a lot of voters on the Britain must stand as '4 nations as 1 together' platform - which has big emotional pull. Farage is bound to attempt to feed into that.
Independence voters need to keep the heid and not demand the fools rush in responses.
DeleteI heard Avril Plenderleith telling Jimsie that on the 23 this morning.
DeleteAnon at 12:20 pm ... I don't accept that many independence voters are attracted to Farage. Far from it.
DeleteUpdate!
ReplyDeleteChristopher McEleny
60/100 nominations received
Across 20/20 Local Authority areas
4 days to go. Will he get 40 more nominations in time!?
Mad Dog McEleny is losing his cool. Expect some mad story in the Record tomorrow about how Alex Salmond cured a Macedonian orphan of leprosy by laying hands on her and now McEleny will be adopting her, bringing her to Scotland and changing her name to Sovereignty.
DeleteHe won't but he will.
DeleteIs he in charge of the process? If so, yes. If not, no.
DeleteHe's suspended for gross misconduct, so no, he's not in charge (although he otherwise would have been).
DeleteChris has resorted to DM'ing random Alba members on Twitter with:
DeleteHi,
Nominations for depute leader are still open, I think a contest would be great to allow members more space to debate policy in advance of conference. I would be grateful if you were able to nominate me.
Thanks, Chris
Hi Chris. Can you give me a single reason why I should vote for you? I know there are two sides to every story but even if only half of what James Kelly claims is true, no sane person could vote for you.
DeleteEngland is going more extreme right wing as every month passes. Beats me how people think that Westminster will eventually GRANT a sec 30 referendum if we just keep voting SNP.
ReplyDeleteOnly a firm, committed, Swinney-secured Scotgov can sit down for Scotland and really enjoy those comfy parly seats.
DeleteSnug For Scotland!
You're a thick plank of wud Tomlin.
DeleteNot voting snp will guarantee even more britnat nonesense and even less chance of independence or even Holyrood remaining. Scotlands settled will is what England decides.
Delete2.41pm an extreme right wing Westminster government may well decide to get rid of devolution no matter how many SNP MSPs there are. An extreme right wing Westminster government may decide to make independence itself illegal. Yet some SNP loyalists just think independence will just happen in the future and that there is no need to rush things.
DeleteQuite incredible the number of dimwits still going on about this independence nonsense!!
DeleteAnon at 3.18. What are you doing? And what do you propose? Decry and weaken the only party capable of furthering Indy, thus facilitating the very thing you seem to fear?
DeleteEat your cereal.
ReplyDeleteShut yer beak
DeleteI do not think that sending in peacekeepers after and agreement is 'adventurism in Ukraine'. You thought that giving up 10 percent of Ukrainian territory would be a good result for Ukraine. On that analogy which 10 percent of Scotland would you give up for full scottish sovereignty over the rest?
ReplyDeleteWe've got 0% at present and nobody seems to have any great sense of urgency about getting up to 1% let alone 90%, so maybe direct your sactimonious lectures elsewhere.
DeleteAlthough I'm sure Keir will be thrilled with your ra-ra-ra support for Brit militarism.
Edinburgh
DeleteGive Westminster the oil fields they keep saying are just about finished ( but they know that is a lie) and tell them to take their nukes as well.
DeleteTony Blair and George Bush set the initial standard in breaking international law and ignoring the UN by invading Iraq. We are now seeing what happens when rules are ignored. It’s back to the old days of might is right and the mighty will take what they want approach and to hell with international law and the UN.
Deleteukraine is not a real country, never was; lenin gave it far too much territory and the west should be polish or lithuanian.
DeleteAnonymous at 3:34 PM
DeleteIt must be blissful to live in a simple world where lack of knowledge is a comfort and allows someone to spout out drivel and never realise s/he is making an embarrassing fool of him/herself.
Orkney
ReplyDeleteIt's neither sanctimonious .nor support for militarism - it was saying that sending a peacekeeping force to Ukraine after an agreement is hardly an example of militarism. And the point about sovereignty you avoid. just as Richard Tice did. Here is a version of the question that was current in the 2014 referendum. What if in the negotiations about a referendum, Westminster said it wanted to retain sovereignty for the area around the Trident base?
ReplyDeleteStuart Campbell has already answered that question - he says "yup, let them take it". Why rant at James?
DeleteIs Stuart Campbell the guy that was a DJ on WestSound?
DeleteWe say no.
DeleteThe Royal "We"....surely not the man himself?
DeleteThe royal we. Usual pish then?
DeleteEncouraging figures, again, for the LibDems.
ReplyDeleteAre the Lib Dem’s pro eu, free tuition fees, pro austerity?
ReplyDeleteThe Lib Dem’s are pro anything they think will get them a ministerial car.
DeleteRule Britannia.
ReplyDeleteWhere? Isle of White, Englatera?
DeleteFool Britannia mair like.
DeleteGive up on the lunacy of independence for pity’s sake.
DeleteNot happening!
O/T but Campbell posted on the topic of Independence yesterday and has had minimal response from the mouth frothers. It seems they just aren’t interested if the discussion doesn’t involve genitalia and gender growling. Why is that?
ReplyDeleteNicola Sturgeon ate my cat.
ReplyDelete