Let me say at this point that I've commissioned a Find Out Now poll myself in the past - just once, and it was almost two years ago now, but assuming that they still have the same basic approach that they did back then, what is likely to have happened is that the Herald will have been handed the data tables and left to work out the meaning of the numbers for themselves, unless they specifically asked for guidance. So for starters, it looks like the Herald have used the non-turnout-adjusted numbers on independence (Yes 51%, No 49%), whereas to maintain consistency with previous polls they should really have used the turnout-adjusted figures, which are...
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Find Out Now/Herald, 15th-20th January 2025)
Yes 52% (-)
No 48% (-)
The same issue has led to a discrepancy between the Westminster numbers on the Herald and Find Out Now websites. The Herald say that second-placed Labour are only one point ahead of Reform UK in third place, whereas Find Out Now themselves say the gap is three points. That strongly implies Find Out Now regard the turnout-adjusted numbers as the headline results, which means Alba are NOT on 7% of the Holyrood list vote. They are on about 5.4%, which is borderline between being rounded down to 5% or rounded up to 6%, but in all probability the correct number is 5%.
The slight mystery here, though, is that Professor John Curtice apparently did the seats projection and I'd have thought he'd have checked the data tables first before approving the numbers. However, the more I've looked at the tables, the more convinced I've become that a major error has been made.
I've done a manual calculation, and the following appear to be the correct numbers, although in one or two cases they may be 1% out due to rounding issues -
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 34% (-1)
Labour 20% (+1)
Conservatives 13% (-2)
Reform UK 13% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-)
Greens 9% (+2)
Alba 2% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 27% (+1)
Labour 16% (-1)
Conservatives 15% (+1)
Greens 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 12% (+2)
Reform UK 11% (-)
Alba 5% (-1)
Those numbers make far, far more intuitive sense than the ones that were published on Saturday night - there's no mysterious slump in the SNP vote, and Alba's support is at a slightly more realistic level (albeit still probably significantly exaggerated).
As far as a seats projection is concerned, I'm not aware of John Curtice's model being publicly available online anywhere, so it's impossible to be sure of what the real numbers would be if the vote shares had been entered correctly. But on the most popular tool available online, the seats projection works out as: SNP 54, Labour 18, Conservatives 17, Greens 16, Liberal Democrats 14, Reform UK 9, Alba 1. Again, that looks like a far more realistic estimate of where we actually are than the rather wild-looking projection that was published on Saturday night (which had Alba on *eight* seats!).
It's still a very substantial pro-independence majority - pro-indy parties are on 71 seats in combination, with unionist parties on just 58 seats.
* * *
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Looks to me like a nice, potentially stable, Pro-Indy-Majority Parliament and Scottish Govt.
ReplyDeleteNice.
Now...........who will be upset most on here, Albaists or Yoons???
Place yer bets...................
David Francis celebrates a possible fall in independence representation.
DeleteAnd here's the first wee whining Anon.
DeleteAlba or Yoon, folks?
Take yer pick.........
Francis, Francis, Francis it's always fucking Francis. You're a thick plank of wud Francis.
DeleteLol.
DeleteAnon, Anon, Anon - it's always f#cking Anons.
Planks-R-Us.
Ain't life wonderful 😁😁😁
Important question you tend to ignore: Then what happens?
DeleteHow is independence achieved after securing that pro-indy Government at Holyrood that will be different from what's happened with the current majority pro-indy representation we have at the present moment and have had since 2021?
And before you deflect with: What's your alternative strategy... I asked first.
Anon at 8:19
DeleteMillion Dollar Question.
I Don't know for certain.
Neither do you, Alba, Wings, ISP, Robin McAlpine, Greens or probably SNP.
Anyone who says they do know, is a Bona-Fide Liar.
A Quasi Good Friday Border Poll arrangement, perhaps.
A demonstrable and consistent majority-demand from Scots, perhaps.
A structured programme of Scotgovt 'dispute and argument' with WM, perhaps.
A new Yes Mass Movement shoving things along, perhaps.
Some High Profile Civil Disobedience, perhaps.
I simply do not know.
What I DO know, is that without a dominant Scottish Indy Party and a Po-Indy Scotgovt in place, there will be NO chance of achieving our main objective.
None.
And there is absolutely NO 'Fast/Clever' way to get there and anyone who says there is, is a total moron.
Now.......what's your alternative strategy?
Beg, beg, beg again. Then beg, beg, beg some more. Then, oh you better watch out now because it's getting serious: we shift up gears to BEGGING!
DeleteThat'll get it right up 'em, Captain Mainwaring!
Anon at 9.01 pm ... yes, but what is YOUR proposal, Corporal Jones?!
DeleteSwinney’s ex boss says she couldn’t do any more to get independence. Yousaf , ex FM, says Sturgeon is the smartest person he knows and she couldn’t get indyref2.
DeleteYet we are expected to believe Swinney will do what both of his predecessors seem to think was not possible. If Swinney is that good why was he deputy FM for so long and when he was deputy why did he not tell Sturgeon how to get independence. In fact Swinney said he was the man who warned Sturgeon not to have indyref2 because of Brexit even though it was in the SNP manifesto. If you want to hear him say that look up the BBC hit job on Salmond programme called A Troubled Union Salmond and Sturgeon. I’m sure it’s on YouTube.
I've done the same for the Westminster figures. Again as stated above the numbers may be a little off due to rounding and overall doesn't add up to 100% due to rounding. Rpugh changes with last poll.
ReplyDeleteSNP 33% -1
Lab 19% -1
Reform 17% +2
Con 13% -1
Lib Dem 10% +1
Green 6% --
Other 1% -1
Nobody pulls the wool over my eyes signor
DeleteThat's a bit more like it for the SNP. The other figures would indicate a reversal of their recovery.
ReplyDeletePeople often ask me why they should join Alba when we have negligible public support, when we never get anyone elected and when we have such unappealing personalities at the top of the party. But I say look more closely and consider what we do have:
ReplyDelete1) Rod-of-iron discipline and obedience. Per capita, Alba has more annual expulsions than any political party in Europe apart from Viktor Orban's Fidesz.
2) Censorship. No organisation keeps their members' traps shut in quite the same way that we do in Alba.
3) Surveillance. We monitor every aspect of our members' social media activities in a way that would make the Stasi blush.
4) Slainte Media and Zulfikar Sheikh. Need I say more?
Join us today on this exciting adventure!
Feasgar math and all the rest of it. Sign me up!
DeleteI've got a few questions, tho.
1. I might not be able to join in the base quota of social media pile-ons on a regular basis. Awkwardly, I’m not currently unemployed. Can I seek special dispensation if I use the c*** word in block capitals enough?
2. Unfortunately, I made the great mistake of learning how the Holyrood election system works. It's going to be extra difficult for me to consistently doublethink my way into total public certainty that we'll get MSPs elected.
3. One time in the past I may have inadvertently called a senior party employee a gobshite in jest in a bar after an indy rally. Is there a statute of limitations for prior misdeeds?
Freedom for Scotland! Saor Alba gu brath!
SNP or out-and-out Yoon?
DeleteTake yer pick, folks...
Choose unity. Choose strength. And for the love of god choose baldy!
DeleteThe SNP are a GREAT political party, and the ONLY party that can and WILL lead us to independence.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney is turning into a GREAT leader. He gets better and better by the week. Every Thursday he runs rings round Sarwar and that Tory tosser, Cannae even think of the prick’s name, at FMQs.
Obviously Swinney learned so much from Nicola Sturgeon, who was a truly GREAT leader. She was AMAZING during COVID. There wasn’t a world leader who came close to Nicola during this time. She was admired the world over, we were so so lucky to have her at that awful time. We will be FOREVER in her debt. Nicola is an amazing person and was obviously a tremendous influence on John.
I have no doubts that John Swinney will lead us to independence, and anybody that says different is a complete W….R.
Ffs get behind John Swinney and the only party that can lead us to independence you imbeciles.
Listen. Zis ees not ze time for squabbling like ze hens in ze yard, or ze sheep and ze Albaiste. Non! It ees ze time to rally behind our leaders, to shout “Vive l’Écosse libre!” from ze rooftops, and to show zat we are not afraid of ze big bad Westminster wolf! Ze SNP is our hot-air balloon, and we must fill eet with ze winds of unity to "Soar Alba" above ze obstacles zat lie in our path! Such as ze poor as piss unity in our movemente!
DeleteSo, I beg of you – no, I plead wiz you – put aside your petty grievances and join hands, whether you are ze Swinnet, ze Sturjeoiniste or even ze Alababa. Together, we can escape zis oppressive regime and claim our rightful place as a proud and independent nation! But only if we end our squabbles and together we all "wheest!"
Now go forth and spread zis massage like butter on a baguette. Do not make me repeat myself, or I shall be forced to unleash my magnificent wrath, like ze enraged toilet inspector! Believe me, ze price is not worth ze entrée.
Lol.
ReplyDeleteTry harder Dummy.
Very poor impersonation.
Looking at those tables, 30.4% SNP roughly excluding don't knows adding to the YES cell at X6 to make 95.4% up to 96.5%, giving SNP 29.4% YES and adding 1/9th = 32.7% YES. Green roughly 9%, Alba 2% gives YES 43.7%. So there's roughly 8.5% YES from other parties.
ReplyDeleteLabour are over 25% YES, giving 4.5%, LibDems give maybe 2%, Cons maybe 0.2% (far lower than normal), and UK Reform maybe a bit less than 1/4 giving 1.8%. As if by magic that works out about right.
So that's part of the battleground for YES and the SNP; the other part is the missing 500,000 2024 voters.
"The missing 500,000 2024 voters"
DeleteRaises hand. Hiya! I'll vote for them if Swinney gets serious and makes the election into indyref2.
When the people of Scotland back independence and support them maybe then our politicians will support us
DeleteMy wife was going to vote Labour but voted SNP instead as our MP campaigned for WASPI. I "lent her my vote", same as she does to me for Indy, otherwise it would have been 500,001 as I'd have not bothered. If the SNP want my vote, they better earn it by going all out for Independence. Patricia Gibson lost anyway.
DeleteJohn Swinney's leadership -- marked by a steady hand -- is starting to pay off.
ReplyDeleteSURENESS-OF-TOUCH
DeleteThe sheer confidence he shows when settling into his morning roll. It's just breathtaking.
DeleteNigel Farage's Reform UK has edged in front on 25%, with Labour pushed into second on 24% and the Tories on 21%.
ReplyDeleteThe YouGov poll, taken on Sunday and Monday, also puts the Lib Dems on 14% and Greens on 9%.
Nae shortage of radges in England.
ReplyDeleteIt's nothing new. They voted Tory most my lifetime, and even for Boris "FFS" Johnson in their millions. Radge? Permanently.
DeleteAnyways, the important bit from Swinney's interview on the Sunday Show was this:
ReplyDeleteSwinney: "Well what we need to do, the priority for me is to demonstrate, beyond any doubt that Scotland wants to become an Independent country, and that's how Scotland will become an Independent country because that's what happened with Devolution. Although we had a referendum in 1997 about Devolution it was plain to anyone's view that Scotland had decided we wanted a Parliament, we wanted a Parliament that was powerful within the United Kingdom and that was absolutely demonstrable and nobody could stand in the face of that and I need to get the Independence arguments into exactly the same shape and that's exactly what I'm doing."
Mmmmm. Well, the result of the Dev Ref in 1997 was 74.3% YES - a long way to go from 52% support.
It is hard to disagree with the basic message in John Swinney's comments. He has articulated a clear strategy that I think a lot of people in Scotland can get behind.
DeleteIt's very easy to disagree with it. It makes independence unattainable.
DeleteThe reason we got a referendum in 1997 was because Labour won the UK general election, and it was in their manifesto.
DeleteThe reason we got a referendum in 2014 was because the SNP won a shocking overall majority in Holyrood, it was in their manifesto, and London was sure we'd lose.
Both of them were the result of elections and tactical choices by the two governments.
Posted early stupid clever keys. THIS has abotu the Dev Ref:
Deletehttps://www.parliament.scot/about/history-of-the-scottish-parliament/the-path-to-devolution
and this from wikipedia:
"The Scottish Constitutional Convention was then established in 1989 after prominent Scottish individuals signed the Claim of Right, and superseded the role of the CSA.
The first meeting was held in the Assembly Hall in Edinburgh on 30 March 1989.[7] Canon Kenyon Wright, the convener of the executive committee, opened the meeting.[8] David Steel and Harry Ewing were adopted as co-chairmen.[9] A second meeting on 7 July was held in Inverness.[10] Various organisations participated in the Convention, such as the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish Green Party, the Communist Party, the Scottish Trades Union Congress, the Scottish Council for Development and Industry, the Small Business Federation and various bodies representing other strands of political opinion as well as civic society in general.[11] Representatives of the two largest churches – the Church of Scotland and the Roman Catholic Church – were involved, as well as smaller church groups, and some non-Christian communities which decided to participate."
Getting Labour and the LibDems along to SCC 2025 might be a bit of a problem ... and the rest. Making Indy like Dev is a tall order, huge, enormous, gigantic. A veritable Tower of Babel. As can be seen even btl in forums.
It's nice to think that a "clear and settled will of the people" will make something happen—whatever it may be—and that notion is what Swinney talks about in your quote. But it's hogwash. How do you make it actually happen? Westminster says No, so how do we say YES?
DeleteYes it's a clear strategy. A gradualist one. But maybe the only one for the ScotGov as opposed to a political party, or us the people.
DeleteThe trick would be for him to make it happen quickly; taking advantage of Labour's continuing slump maybe, and the protest vote element of Reform UK. LibDems could be a problem. Perhaps inclusive Government could do the trick.
Replying to your 9:28 post: now you're talking. If one of the major UK parties, presumably Labour, supports Scottish independence on a UK election winning manifesto, like they did Devolution, then that's our "gold standard" referendum right there.
Delete"Huge, enormous, gigantic" aye, it is indeed. What force on Earth could take them on that journey? Not only would they be kissing goodbye forever to a bastion of the left, they'd go down like cold sick in England for "losing Scotland and severing Britain."
"Westminster says No, so how do we say YES?"
DeleteIndeed. Perhaps the self-determination route - Salvo, UN Committee on Decolonization, that sort of thing. Hence his mention of Northern Ireland and their Border Poll option which we don't have.
I think "the trick" you mention at 9:31 is the only game in town, and it's simpler than you think. Swinney needs to use the horrifying prospect of a Trumpist UK Farage government at the next general election to shift its strategy from "gradualism" to "plebiscite election." Use Holyrood 2026 as an indyref2, simple and the only way to prove they mean it. Get a dedicated Scotgov FOR INDEPENDENCE elected while Starmer's still there to force to the table. If the pressure of a big win in Holyrood on a straightforward mandate for independence isn't enough, then try again at the WM general itself, when Farage is nailed on favourite to take over No. 10.
DeleteThe only way we have to demonstrate the will of the Scottish people is elections. Use them. Swinney's the only one who can and must make that call. Go straight for independence.
Anon at 9:33 PM
DeleteIt might be enough to get Labour to support having a Referendum, and being neutral - much as Kezia Dugdale tried to make work but got sacked by the grey men.
If we actually do this thing—that needs the First Minister to fire the bloody starting gun, not just threaten to—then the election numbers speak for themselves and we will be able to actively explore alliances abroad like the UN route. With a bone fide majority of the people rallied to your side, doors open. A next stage has begun.
DeleteBut if all we can do is beg, then we better like feeling humiliated because there's lots, lots more where that came from.
Pick a number, just like a Yoon journalist
DeleteAnon at 9:41 PM
DeleteI was disgusted when I listened to that Dev target from Swinney, but after thinking about it, as you say about Trump, Farage, and Starmer and Reeves, the time is right for a tipping point. And there are signs of it happening in civic Scotland, and maybe even the likes of the STUC - a participant in the Devo run up.
And it could happen in less than a year- with the right catalysts.
If Sarwar and Labour in Scotland ever said they supported a referendum why would you believe them when they lie about everything else?
ReplyDeleteSo the exchange rate is about 3 Indyvotes for 1 Unionistvote. Why is that?
ReplyDelete2 I think. With YES at 52% it just needs 2 for each Unionist vote persuaded.
Delete#HugAUnionist
Latest Yougov / sky news poll is showing Reform leading. It could be optomistic to think Reform are not going to peel some votes off the SNP.
ReplyDeleteSwinney has the brains to fix this but time is not on his side. If Reform do end up forming the next gov then they will just change the Scotland act and indy will be over for a very long time!
If Trump turns the US economy into a tiger, gets rid of the woke and reduces gov waste many will say..I'll have some of that and support Reform in Scotland.
One easy example of waste are all the grifters in Holyrood. why not shut it down and go for the regional or Mayoral type model.
Trump has already U-Turned on his immediate tariffs on Canada and Mexico and Musk, like the completely unelected bureaucrat he is, is presently causing havoc among US Govt agencies and the US Treasury and his popularity among Americans is also sinking fast.
DeleteThey don't like the World's richest man 'throwing his weight around'.
This whole thing has disaster written all over it.
If you think there is severe 'buyers remorse' in the UK after electing Starmer's Labour Party, you ain't seen nothing yet............
"I'll support Reform then I'll make an appointment with my shrink".
ReplyDeleteFair enough but the queue for the shrink could be very long. The patients could recover but not indy.
DeleteNo doubt James will be along to analyse the importance of this poll or not.
If Trump turns the US economy into a tiger.
ReplyDeleteLike he stopped the war in Ukraine within 24 hours?
Just seen the sub sample results on WOS. Patrick is going to be over the moon! for a change.
ReplyDelete