As far as I know, the Holyrood numbers from the Survation poll have not yet been officially released, but the crossbreaks in the data tables seem to give the game away. I've had to calculate the percentages manually. I can't guarantee these will be the headline numbers, because there may be some filter yet to be applied. But I suspect these are pretty much bang on the money.
Constituency ballot:
SNP 34.7%
Labour 22.6%
Reform UK 13.7%
Conservatives 13.4%
Liberal Democrats 8.3%
Greens 5.4%
Alba 1.4%
Regional list ballot:
SNP 30.6%
Labour 21.1%
Reform UK 13.8%
Conservatives 13.6%
Liberal Democrats 10.2%
Greens 8.2%
Alba 2.2%
Seats projection: SNP 53, Labour 24, Reform UK 16, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 11, Greens 9
So not quite a pro-independence majority this time, but very close - pro-indy parties in combination would have 62 seats, and unionist parties would have 67.
And if I may very gently adapt Chris McEleny's favourite turn of phrase, this is "yet another poll" showing Alba firmly on course for zero seats in 2026. They wouldn't even be anywhere close to winning a seat.
Labour powering ahead on these numbers, Keir’s doubters shown up for the blowhards that they indubitably are.
ReplyDeleteNice base to build from.
ReplyDeleteA base to build for who exactly???
DeleteSNP???
SNP have lost 1/3rd of their 45% base vote.. Do you think they’re coming back? Most aren’t voting. After that they’re voting reform or labour.
Iv been political & pro indy all of my life, Was SNP member over 20 years…Never voted last year - couldn’t stomach SNP. Will never vote unionist, especially reform. SNP are currently Unionist Lite…Err I mean devolutionist (same thing), so I won’t vote them.
If Alba aren’t the alternative party, I’ll vote ISP or not vote. I don’t expect either to get elected. 1 seat is enough for a difference.
I aint coming back to the SNP until major changes happen.
If you think those changes are on their way, you’re deluded.
Steve.
How do we get. The 20 odd % independence supporters in labour to vote in 2026 for a pro independence part?
ReplyDeleteBy being convincing on independence rather than rehashing the 2021 manifesto?
DeleteOr the Greens to vote SNP in the first vote?
ReplyDeleteWe're going to have a limbo 'government SNP' winning elections but nowhere near 'independence rebellion SNP' by the looks of things for many years.
ReplyDeleteTop of the poll but nowhere near 50%. I suppose we'll get a few policies out of it but indy won't come from treading water. It'll need to be a resurgence.
It's like the PNV basque party. Been in power for donkeys but actually never close to doing anything. Enough to win but curtailed by day-to-day governing to cut through with a radical movement.
DeleteAt the rate we're going House of Lords reform might actually happen first!
DeleteDoubt it -labour , tories, Lib Dem’s like the ermine robe too much.
ReplyDelete3.6bn pounds in this Labour MPs family bank account out of Bangladesh.
ReplyDeleteThat's a lot of motorhomes
That Alba Party 2.2% list showing represents pure wasted votes.
ReplyDeleteHey y’all! Games up. Come home to the SNP.
See to be fair. The SNP took us to court without a plan to follow through when the inevitable British court did their duty.
DeleteIt was a despicable way to treat a centuries old cause. Ingesting London veto in the minds of our people which will be hard to remove. We even had clowns in the SNP briefing against their own strategy while in full flight.
I'm voting for them but let's not pretend theyre great shakes.
The SNP is more borstal than home.
DeleteBy going to court the SNP did Scotland the favour it needed by showing what the British were prepared to do to hold onto their possession
DeleteIn the face of that court's decision the people of Scotland did absolutely nothing about being told they have no voice and no say
The SNP tried to demonstrate that fact and the population gave them no support
Scotland's problem is Scotland's lazy people prepared to accept anything the British do to them
Nicola Sturgeon could've allowed the British to burn her at the stake like Joan of Arc and still the people would've sat on their lazy Arses and done nothing
If she's out of things for good Scotland only has itself to blame
'If she's out of things for good' Scotland should be bloody grateful!
DeleteNicola Sturgeon as Joan of Arc - now there is something you don't read every day -thankfully. This poster is absolutely bonkers and like WOS seems to hate Scots.
DeleteYou've lost your bearings. Independence is home.
DeleteDrJim @ 8:02 it is frankly a shameful stain on an ungrateful world that we do not yet have UN Secretary General Nicola Sturgeon
DeleteAnd do what? Lick Swinney & Sturgeon’s boots?
DeleteNot really - far more SNP list votes are wasted than 2.2%.
DeleteEspecially when you consider the calibre of who they elect.
Wooo! Unionist party of traitors who conspired to put an innocent man in prison while holding an entire country hostage may be largest party.
ReplyDeleteBet YOU'RE proud now that you've gone back to worshipping murrell's rancid arse.
There was always the option of not expelling me, Chris (or whichever one you are). Whatever my misgivings about Alba's strategy, I was fully committed to the party, but then it expelled me on a bunch of ridiculously vague trumped up charges. Frankly, nobody in Alba is in any position to complain about any decisions I made after that point.
DeleteI wouldnt have dignified that last post with a reply James.
DeleteWho does anon at 650pm think they are. So those of us who have wanted independence for our adult life are unionist traitors. Sorry to disappoint their perverted mind. It is them that turn off individuals to independence with their extreme we are “the ideology pure”. Thankfully most of us see the sanctimonious bleating. They are failures.
DeleteAnon at 6:50.
DeleteTit.
We are witnessing the disintegration of what was ,quite frankly ,an irrelevant grouping of disgruntled narcissists.
DeletePersonally I couldnt give two hoots what happens to Alba.
Alex Salmond was not innocent, he was just not legally guilty of the specific charges against him
DeleteThat's a massive difference from innocent
Let's be honest: Everyone who's ever ended up in court is bound to have been guilty of something!
DeleteAnon @ 8.04pm has just got to be Dr Jim. IFS says you admitted to regularly assaulting women. Innocent or guilty Dr Jim?
DeleteAnon @8-56pm See ya.
DeleteJames...I'm pretty sure Anon@9-07 pm has crossed a red-line.
DeleteI'm checking with others.Your thoughts?
9.13pm - crossed a red line - is that on the London Underground?
DeleteInteresting times. That poll makes the regional combined vote for Reform/Tories almost as popular as the SNP. And how did Reform go from nowhere to polling as the third Holyrood party? Weird. I guess that not listening to anything they say and regarding them as schemie fascist scum isn't as clever as some people think.
ReplyDeletePardon?
DeleteWhen Farage is given a standing ovation at an AfD rally in Germany - AfD being widely acknowledged right across Europe as a Fascist Party - maybe his new Party, Reform UK, IS Fascist Scum, just like him?
everyone I dont like is a fascist
Deletedeep political analysis
come on dave, give us a "literally hitler" while you are at it
Lol
DeleteYeah......plenty of Non-Fascists attend Fascist Rallies, pal.
Probably been there yourself, eh?
Enjoy -
Deletehttps://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/08/04/ccbp-a04.html
Not so much weird as weirdos.
DeleteThat was my post with the link.
DeleteHeadline was -
'Alternative for Germany positions itself as open fascist party for the 2024 European election'
I'm a schemie and have nae problem as regarding them as fascists.
DeleteI would remove 'interesting times' and replace with 'worrying times'........(unless your surname is Goebbels and your preferred bedtime snooze-book is Mein Kampf
DeleteNigel F is many things but I'm not sure about "schemie"
DeleteThat's unfair. Inheritance tax is the number one concern on most council estates.
DeleteNowadays if the governing party had 53 MSP's, nearly half of them would be cabinet secretaries or ministers for something or other (my favourite is the 'minister for victims', with another favourite being a minister getting about a £11,000 pay rise). Mind you, the minister for The Promise deserves a mention.
ReplyDeleteFor the lols: Minister for Independence and then abolishing the role after them not doing anything other than claiming a nice salary!
DeletePeter A Bell is doing his nut on the National comments. I guess that his new party isn't quite a success that he thought it be !
ReplyDeletePeter A Bell has a nut?.......well knock me doon wae a JCB.
DeleteMakes a change from him nutting I suppose
DeleteDavid Francis - I can just see you next year campaigning for the SNP at the Holyrood election.
ReplyDelete“Vote SNP the lesser of the political party evils.”
"Vote Alba or Big Chris or Taz will get ye"
DeleteAnon at 9:40 -
DeleteWhat other 'lesser evil' would you prefer, then?
The level of commentary on here has deteriorated rapidly in the last couple of days with what passes for discourse almost indistinguishable from the contents posted on the Wee Grifter Dug site.
DeleteAnon at 10:27 -
DeleteWhat is your preferred site, then?
I take this one more seriously:
Deletehttps://www.beano.com/comic
No great surprise.
DeleteSuits you.
Sturgeon has been very brave. She can lead again.
ReplyDeleteHope this is a joke.
DeleteLooking at this polling I think the ALBA vote is largely confined to Little Cumbrae on the Clyde with a few smattering of votes along West bay Millport on Great Cumbrae. It's a tall order but ALBA may pick up a vote on uninhabited Ailsa Craig come the next Scottish election.
ReplyDeleteI got told Cumbrae is mainly English ex pats, part time Americano’s and a few Italians.
ReplyDeleteLabour 24, Reform UK 16, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 11 = 67 seats
ReplyDeleteSNP 53, Greens 9 = 62 seats
And the only thing that matters for a majority are the 'list' figures. So much as I want independence, I can't see SNP/Greens delivering it. Or even running Holyrood, unless they dig themselves further out of the hole they've dug themselves.
Hi James.
ReplyDeleteGenuine question. Would you like to see Alba fail?
I understand some of them treated you unfairly.
Do you think that is representative of the whole party?
Do you think any party is immune to this?
Do you think the SNP leadership are any less ruthless?
Do you think Sturgeon’s leadership of SNP was any less ruthless?
With regards to my last question, I’d wager Sturgeon was ruthless as or perhaps more ruthless than Starmer, and her legacy is that she’s destroyed any chance for normal, decent folk like yourself to have an impact on that party.
I wish you the best in the SNP. I don’t blame you for rejoining. Certain folk in Alba are clearly arseholes (putting it lightly), but they’re not as powerful as the cabal who rules your new party. In small unelectable (ha!) parties, small folk still have a say…
To bring it back to my original question - Would you like to see Alba succeed and elected to Scottish parliament?
I would. Not because I like them - I like some. But because, an alternative Yes party in our parliament is the best possible threat to Devolutionist SNP cabal, & the best strategy to redirecting us towards Independence.
So… if you would like them to succeed, I ask that you be the bigger man & minimise the ridicule.
If you wouldn’t like them to succeed, then ask yourself why that is.
All the best.
Steve (inactive ALBA member)
Inactive for a reason - I don’t like political types - mostly self important arseholes.