I said yesterday that we shouldn't necessarily expect to see Reform UK in the outright lead in most GB-wide polls, at least in the immediate future, and these new More In Common numbers demonstrate why. At 22%, Reform UK have hit their all-time high with More In Common - they had been on 21% on a couple of previous occasions, but never 22%. And yet this new high watermark still has them in third place, because More In Common's 'house effects' consistently leave Reform with a slightly lower vote share than they have with polling firms that have shown them on the brink of taking the lead.
GB-wide voting intentions (More In Common, 6th-8th January 2025):
Conservatives 26% (-)
Labour 26% (-)
Reform UK 22% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-1)
Greens 7% (-1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
For all parties other than Reform, the poll is unremarkable. Labour have been lower than 26% in a previous More In Common poll, and they've also been behind the Tories or level with the Tories in multiple previous polls from the firm, so a 26-26 tie is very much within the recent norm. However, it's perhaps worth noting in passing how common it's become in recent weeks and months for polling firms to show the SNP on 3% of the GB-wide vote. In the run-up to the general election, 2% was the most common figure.
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Maybe an impossible question to answer re UK wide polls but is the SNP situation due to its vote 'holding" and others shifting about or is there a genuine slight upturn?
ReplyDeleteYes, I don't think there's much doubt there's a slight upturn. Most of the Scotland-only polls since the general election have shown the SNP higher than 30%, albeit not dramatically higher.
DeleteThat makes me feel like wanking hard
DeleteAnecdotal but people I know are quite happy with John Swinney in charge compared to the chaos and austerity of the tories in Westminster over the past few years and the less than auspicious Starmer with his support of the wealthy over the poorer in society.
ReplyDeleteWhat’s the latest Scotland-only Reform voting intention?
ReplyDeleteThe pollsters haven't got round to checking psychiatric hospitals yet.
DeleteWhat do you think the 'tipping point' might be for Tories to do a runner to Reform en-masse, James?
ReplyDelete