As this is Scot Goes Pop's first blogpost of the Trump II era, it might be an appropriate moment to check in with the GB-wide polls to see how MAGA's de facto sister party, Reform UK, is getting on. There have been several polls since my last update and the trend continues to look highly significant.
More In Common: Conservatives 25%, Reform UK 24%, Labour 24%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 8%, SNP 3%, Plaid Cymru 1%
24% is a new post-election low for Labour with More In Common, but the same figure is an all-time high for Reform UK with the firm.
Techne: Labour 26%, Conservatives 25%, Reform UK 23%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7%, SNP 2%
26% is a new post-election low for Labour with Techne, and 23% is a new all-time high for Reform UK with the firm.
JL Partners: Labour 26%, Conservatives 25%, Reform UK 22%, Liberal Democrats 13%, Greens 9%, SNP 2%, Plaid Cymru 1%
26% is a new post-election low for Labour with JL Partners, and 22% is a new all-time high for Reform UK with the firm.
Find Out Now: Reform UK 25%, Conservatives 25%, Labour 24%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 10%, SNP 3%, Plaid Cymru 1%
Find Out Now are the odd ones out - they showed Labour lower than this a few weeks ago, and they've also previously shown Reform UK as high as 25%. It's not even the first time they've had Labour in third place.
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My stalker in Somerset has celebrated what must be one of the happiest days of his life by writing his 79,854th blogpost about me (I don't charge rent for the time I spend in his head, honestly, that would be wrong of me). What he's particularly angry about this time is that I said I would be voting "both votes SNP" next year to avoid independence being taken off the agenda for many years to come.
I'm afraid that's just a statement of the obvious, Stu. One of the main reasons we were all tearing our hair out in 2021 about the SNP's failure to bring about a vote on independence is that pro-indy parties totally dominated Scottish politics at the time - they had big majorities in both Holyrood and Westminster. It was reasonable to say "if the SNP are ever going to strike for home, this is obviously the moment to do it". But that position of dominance no longer exists, and if the SNP lose next year, there will be unionist majorities in both parliaments. I still want the SNP to use next year's election as a de facto referendum, but regardless of whether they do or they don't, it will be necessary to elect a pro-indy majority just to keep the flame burning. We're on the back foot, and we need a victory to get back on the front foot. Whereas if a Labour-led government is elected, independence will be completely dead until 2031 at the very least, and we might as well all just pack up and go home for the foreseeable future.
So what is Campbell's superior plan for keeping the flame burning? On past form it will almost certainly be to tell his readers to vote Labour or Tory on the constituency ballot (and possibly on the list as well), and thus to actually elect the unionist government that will kill independence until at least 2031. How that is supposed to help matters is far from clear, and Campbell isn't about to explain it to you. If he pulls it off, his long-term Pied Piper mission will be well and truly complete, although I'm not sure his readers will recognise that they've been played for mugs even at that stage.
Labour winning at WM24 is working out very well for Yes. I see no reason why having a disastrous Labour ScotGov for a term wouldn't do the same.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP under Swinney won't get anywhere towards indy before 2031 anyway.
As it stands, I'll be abstaining.
so you make matters worse. Well done brit.
DeleteMudskulled drooling. As well as abstaining you could stamp your feet and scream.
DeleteStu is a unionist now, maybe he always was? His long term goal plan was maybe to reel in lots of readers then reveal, in part, his true mission (anti independence)... Brainwashing those mugs that remain loyal to his devious tactics
ReplyDeleteSurely the mugs that remain can see their backing an anti independence person
Celine Gottwald has been saying that for years.
DeleteGreat to have James back in team SNP.
ReplyDeleteThere's a rapidly increasing problem with a lot of blogs in Scotland that if you don't agree completely with the blogger your opinion is worthless, you're a fool or a Unionist or a troll, or "the problem" (which at least kind of admits there IS a solution to you), or indeed some invented word like droolwit.
ReplyDeleteNow, that's my opinion, and if you don't all agree with me you can all just [redacted].
Yesindyref2 - yes that is a problem but another is the plague of one line ignorant trolls btl. You can see them here.
DeleteSchool of thought is independence is helped by
ReplyDeleteA) SNP clinging on, being a relatively weak government but being in nominal power
B) SNP going into opposition and being the alternative
In the context of independence happening, I just don't see how such a radical policy comes from a zombie like govt treading water.
I think it's more likely to come about from a portion of winning after a period out of govt.
If it can be the other way, I'd love that though. Just don't see it.
Sure all Brits wants snp out of the way so they can dismantle Holyrood.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, now we have Trump, and there have been lots of predictions about what's going to happen and what it means for this that and the other, including Independence.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction is this - Trump is totally unpredictable. And that means he might just suddenly decide that it's unfair Scotland doesn't have a referendum when Northern Ireland can have one any time, and would the UK Gov dare to say NO to Trump? I think not!
And no, that wasn't a prediction - Trump is unpredictable.
What drivel. Your predictable.
DeleteYesindyref2. What?
DeleteCampbell/Wings is either a completely cretinous moron, or an extremely devious wee bastard.
ReplyDeleteProbably a mixture of both.
He is informed enough to know that, if SNP lose their grip on the Scottish Govt and are replaced by London Labour's 'Scottish' Branch in dominant power, one of the first things Starmer has said he will hit Scotland with is a so-called 'Local Democracy Act' followed by City Mayors up here - and with a totally compliant Labour-Led Scotgovt, both will sail through without a problem.
They will use Burnham's Greater Manchester remit as a template for a Greater Glasow Mayorlty which could comprise up to 2.5 Million folk within its boundaries. More would then follow and London Labour would start giving funds, via Ian Murray at The Scotland Office, directly to these powerful new bodies, bypassing Holyrood altogether.
Whereas in England, with a population of around 60 Million, these Mayorlties will never threaten the over-reaching power of WM (because they are all basically 'Unionists Together' in any case), in Scotland, with a much smaller population of just 5.4 Million and where 50% of folk want Independence and 74% voted to establish the Scottish Parliament, those same Mayorlties would be able, with WM direct assistance, to gradually strip away not only Holyrood's standing with Scots, but perhaps also its funding through the Block Grant.
The end result would be exactly what ALL the Unionist Parties really want - an emasculated and greatly diminished Scottish Govt, totally incapable of pursuing even the notion of Independence, no matter who later gets into power up here.
Campbell must know all these dangers exist, but does not give one single, solitary f#ck - because his No 1 priority now is NOT anything to do with whether Independence happens or not, it is 100% the destruction of the SNP and them kicked out of power.
Nothing else.
Any 'Yesser' who agrees with his nihilistic nonsense, is certainly NOT worthy of that epithet.
They are simply mugs.
David, a better attempt at the proper use of paragraphs. Good to see you making the effort.
DeleteJames says:- " I still want the SNP to use next year's election as a de facto referendum,...."
ReplyDeleteCampbell has said in the past vote Unionist as James rightly says.
I agree with James and disagree with Campbell. No good ever comes for Scotland by voting Labour/Tory/Libdem.
However, I do not remember getting much support on SGP back in 2020 when I said that 2021 should be a de facto referendum. Indeed most of the SNP loyalists on SGP gave me abuse and said I was a Unionist.
Incredible you are told you are a Unionist because you want an independence referendum but not the slavish loyal SNP type of referendum. The SNP invisible referendum that disnae ever show up. Told you so.
Swinney was there all through this period.
In 2020 May and Johnston ( twice ) had already told Sturgeon to take a hike with her gold standard sec 30 grovelling. Any decent independence leader would have called a de facto referendum there and then for 2021. But the SNP loyalists told us the great Sturgeon knew what she was doing. I told them then they were talking shit and people like David Francis five years on are still talking shit. Oh and Lomax is still a snidey waste of space ignoramus. 2021 was an excellent opportunity to put on record a yes vote for independence.
Now five years later Swinney is peddling more snake oil with his overwhelming support referendum coming soon to a polling station near you. Disnae sound like a de facto or any referendum coming soon to me.
I'll stick with ISP. Better than not voting at all.
19/10/23 No ifs. No buts. No referendum.
And here come the mugs........
ReplyDeleteThe SNP is the best party to vote for.
ReplyDelete