This is something that genuinely puzzles me, and I know it's a point that has also been made by Colette Walker of ISP. If the Alba Party are planning to take the (unwise, in my view) step of intervening in constituency seats in 2026, that would imply that they've moved away from the 2021 messaging of "get a pro-indy majority by gaming the voting system", because the latter only works if you advise people to vote SNP in the constituencies. As long-term readers know, I think gaming the system is a dead-end idea once you start to consider the myriad ways in which it can totally backfire, but nevertheless to the extent that it can even theoretically work, it 100% depends on convincing people to vote for two different parties on the two ballots. There is no planet on which "both votes Alba" is a recipe for a supermajority.
And yet, once again, leading Alba figures are regularly pushing the "game the system for a supermajority" narrative. There seems to be a distinct lack of joined-up thinking.
Angus MacNeil understandably has the zeal of a convert at the moment, and perhaps hasn't realised yet that all Alba members with a mind of their own, of which is he is now one, are merely "expellees in waiting". This is what he had to say today on the supermajority subject -
"Look at that poll for the 2026 election. 👇
What does 2nd vote SNP do ?
The answer is that it gives you Reform MSPs. Tory MSPs. And Labour MSPs.
2nd vote SNP helps anti independence parties.
That will be the effect of 2nd vote SNP in 2026 as it was in 2021.
So Vote #Alba4Indy"
But does that logic actually make any sense? Here are the seats projections for the Norstat poll from a prediction website -
Constituency seats:
SNP 58
Conservatives 7
Liberal Democrats 5
Labour 3
Regional list seats:
Labour 17
Reform UK 13
Conservatives 12
Greens 7
Liberal Democrats 6
SNP 1
The first thing you'd have to say about the above numbers is that they could be wildly misleading, because they're based on an enormous 16% SNP lead over Labour on the constituency ballot. Many people think that scale of lead is highly implausible. If the SNP aren't doing that well in the constituency seats, they stand to be compensated with far more list seats.
But even if you take the numbers at face value, the brutal truth is that they show that the wasted pro-indy votes on the list are both SNP and Alba votes. The only pro-indy voters who are getting bang for their buck on the list are Green voters. If you could move votes around like pieces on a chessboard (which in the real world you simply can't do) the obvious way to game the system would be to shift both the SNP's and Alba's list votes to the Greens, and then you'd have your supermajority.
In the Norstat poll Alba were on 5% of the list vote, but any serious analyst will tell you that Norstat regularly overstate Alba's support, which in truth is probably flatlining at 2% or 3% at most. That means Alba would have to double or triple their current support to move into seat-winning territory. That's not impossible, but the severe difficulty of the task contrasts with the fact that the Greens are already well into seat-winning territory, and that the SNP would win lots of list seats in the entirely plausible scenario that their constituency support drops back a bit. So no matter which way you cut it, Alba is statistically not the most promising option for gaming the list vote. Not even close.
Voters were totally unmoved by the supermajority pitch in 2021, and given that the case is even weaker this time, it's hard to see why Alba would suddenly start cutting through with it. They'd be much better advised to try to win votes by the conventional method of persuading voters that they are a better party than the SNP and have better policies. OK, I'm not sure the optimal way of doing that is with the current increasingly right-wing positioning of "it's not racist to take money away from asylum seekers / President-elect Donald Trump deserves greater respect from us / Elon Musk has saved the internet gonnae take me to Mars, hun / Andrew Doyle off GB News is just so goddamn fabulous is he not", but even that is probably preferable to the excruciating embarrassment of making your Party Election Broadcast a three-minute monologue on the d'Hondt formula.
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If the polling between Labour and SNP is anywhere near close in the lead up to HR26 I'd expect the Greens to be pretty cagey about their position on the constitution.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that's true, but at the moment it looks like being an academic point anyway. Labour are in deep, deep trouble.
DeleteHopefully they’re still in deep deep trouble in the run up to the 2026 election, and not the SNP.
DeleteMy guess is that's how it will pan out. I know you're hinting at the effects of any legal charges, but when Alex Salmond was first charged, I was very surprised by how little effect it had on SNP support.
DeleteWaspi women may think Labour isn’t for them.
ReplyDeleteCeline Gottwald thanks that.
DeleteI think James that people are thinking too small assuming that 2026 is going to be fought in the same atmosphere as in previous years. You need to keep an eye on the amount of money coming north for the non indy parties and look out for where it's being directed. Labour wants what it considers its precious by historical right and even Reform UK has been enticing alleged indy supporters in some local communities already.
ReplyDeleteIf Alba are seriously going to act like a winning force, and who knows who they are going to have standing for them in 2026, they cannot depend on what people are already referring to as a nostalgia sympathy vote for Alec. People already have uncomfortable vibes about some of the 'Alec's death was probably hastened by fall out from the trial' and 'it's Sturgeon's fault' narratives. If that's how they're planning to win, a lot of Scots feel that's tasteless.
Riddoch in her podcast seems upset at the SNP allegedly showing reasonably well in this latest poll and is indicating the 'movement' has intentions to upset the Snp applecart and suggests (prompted by this poll result and contrary to her past stuff) that the SNP should butt out of the independence movement and that the system in now unfair if it shows favour to the SNP. She says that the movement should have the respect, profile and credibility a political party has and says she thinks 'we're going to find out'. She says she thinks it's unfair if the SNP gain more seats and that Yes if 'far ahead of the SNP in voting intentions'.
So whatever the plan is - and she says some SNP people as well as others support it - maybe there will be some new winning something or other - but gaming the system is as it always is. Nobody knows until the playing field of contenders is clear.
It's a pity the movement can't just this once hold its nose and vote en masse for the SNP and give Westminster a clearly defined easy to understand bloody nose. But that doesn't look like a possibility which is a pity, just this once. It would be a shocker and knock the unionists out of the park - but the want for that doesn't seem to be there. It seems to be settle for a few indy people from here and there within a devolved administration and continue to give the SNP a kicking. I'm not sure what that's likely to achieve in terms of galvanising the country to opt for independence. It just seems like more of the same to me and accommodating to Labour and sadly Reform UK who some indy bods are already mouthing they'll vote for to do the infamous 'give the SNP a kicking'. Maybe the Riddoch 'thing' will produce some miraculous wonders - who knows.
"People already have uncomfortable vibes about some of the 'Alec's death was probably hastened by fall out from the trial' and 'it's Sturgeon's fault' narratives. If that's how they're planning to win, a lot of Scots feel that's tasteless."
DeleteIf that's how they're planning to win, they'll fail, it's as simple as that. No party can function as a 'memorial stone' to one man.
Forgot to say - maybe the mystery candidates will be some business millionaires. Hopefully independence supporting of course. That might stir up some voters.
ReplyDelete2026 will see the SNP sweep the boards as folk realize you need a political party to manage a country and not petty protest parties
ReplyDeleteThe Greens Alba and all the rest could well disappear without barely a trace left
John Swinney without having to lift a finger will go down in history as a great FM because the British Labour party has done all the work to create their own demise
As you know, I have mixed feeling at best about the Greens, but they're not going to disappear. They're holding their own pretty well.
DeleteI always get rather frustrated about the debates around voting strategies for Holyrood elections, and would agree with James that in practice "tactical voting" does not work in a proportional system. Its not intended to. So vote for whichever party or parties are closest to your preferences and ignore all the people trying to convince you otherwise.
ReplyDeleteHowever the only proviso I would add, is that although there is no formal threshold , the fact the number of list seats is limited, means that in effect there is effectively a cutoff. As a very rough rule of thumb (it will vary depending on voting pattersn within each region), if a party is polling below 5%, then you are almost certainly wasting your vote.
And that means voting for anyone other than the SNP or Greens is a likely wasted vote (which you are perfectly entitled to do).
John Swinney has been quietly ditching most of the previous nonsense that the ScotGov were doing, the legacy of the disastrous BHA which made it easier for the SNP to pass wind instead of sensible legislation and policies.
ReplyDeleteLabour should be courted by the Indy movement and the SNP, as the wedge between Freeze Reeves and Liz "Truss" Kendal, and Scottish Labour becomes deeper and deeper.
https://archive.is/3COi8
"Scottish Labour MP 'appalled' as Waspi women to receive no compensation"
People constantly slagging off Labour should also be ready to extend the hand of friendship - Labour in Scotland are NOT the same as Labour in Westminster.
Sorry, that was in reply to Anon at 8:05 PM.
DeleteLabour in Scotland do as they are told by Labour in England. YI2 does have a rather strange view of the unionist party called Labour.
DeleteLuckily John Swinney, the FM of a minority government, leader of the SNP and in a way, the de facto leader of the Indy movement, who has said he'll work with any party, is way ahead of you.
DeleteCan you please try to be more supportive of ALBA?
ReplyDeleteNow that they've expelled me, you mean?! Well, it's a novel thought. I did check the rulebook, and my expulsion took effect immediately from the moment of the Disciplinary Committee's decision on the 5th. In theory that can be overturned on appeal, but as of this moment I am not a party member. So I have none of the rights of membership - but none of the responsibilities either.
DeleteAre you still paying subscription fees for the privilege of not being a member?
DeleteI really hope not.
That might continue to be the case until my appeal. I'm not happy about it, but I'll play along for a few more weeks. Obviously if my appeal isn't upheld I'll make sure they receive no more money from me.
DeleteThey really should refund you if the appeal fails from when you ceased to be a member.
DeleteMaybe worth a wee go in the small claims court if they don't.
I'm open to voting Alba but if the SNP are in trouble, I'll probably vote SNP.
ReplyDeleteFeel the first Alba election when SNP were surging was the chance. But a combination of some silly tweets and a thorough character assassination on the leader made that difficult.
I can't envisage, though, many in Alba falling in line behind a party who they believe is beyond the pale and not fussed about independence, however. And I wouldn't expect them to. Parties like Alba are in the position of the Greens before they won seats. They need to build their profile. And independence is almost certainly not going to be on the ballot paper so this is not nation defining. That sort of thing doesn't happen at every election.
Every election is nation defining for the next 4/5 years. Why vote for ALBA and failure?
ReplyDeleteDefinitely. Alba are a busted flush. Not a serious option for any voter.
DeleteEvery election is so called the most defining but in reality the stars need to align.
DeleteI agree with your opinion on this, James.
ReplyDeleteIt is completely non-sensical to to what Alba seem to want to do....so they will probably do it anyway.
'Scottish' Labour, as per today's WASPI disgrace and the previous WFP debacle, will simply offer empty platitudes, rustle their worry-beads....and then try to turn the entire thing on its head and somehow pass the buck/blame the SNP.
I reckon the vast majority of Scots now completely understand that, when push comes to shove, Sarwar & Co will ALWAYS back Starmer's idiocy.
I also think Labour will continue to lose support up here, as UK Labour keep bouncing from one PR/Policy disaster to the next.
They won't have enough time to recover, before 2026.
Swinney seems to have not only steadied the SNP Ship, but is beginning to steer it away from some contentious fringe issues and back to bread and butter stuff which actually resonates with voters.
As far as the 1&2 Indy Votes in 2026, the deep animosity from Alba to the Mainstream Indy Parties and vice-versa, I think will rule out any meaningful co-operation - UNLESS Attitudes change dramatically on all sides in the interim.
I am not overly hopeful about that, though.
Reform are a real worry.
They might well push a LOT of money and resources at the Central Belt and NE Scotland and suck in both Tory and Labour voters who see those Parties' popular support diminishing.
They could well become the Third Party at Holyrood and we already know they would not back/do deals with SNP.
Only way to nullify them is for the two Mainstream Indy Parties - SNP and Greens - to once again produce a majority Pro-Indy Holyrood and, barring a mutual agreement between those Parties to have an electoral pact in certain Seats (unlikely after the BHA bust-up) that will be achieved by simply voting for the Party you believe in, twice.
The greens are not an indy party. You should know that by now. The BHA was a disaster - it should never have been cobbled together. It made the greens look important, independence minded and credible - they were none of these. I'm not even sure they are a good environmental party, their policies on that are dreadful and ill-considered. The sooner the greens shrink to nothing the better it will be for us all. Getting rid of the BHA was Humza's finest moment.
DeleteAs long as Indy is in their manifesto they are an Indy Party.
DeleteAs opposed to unionist Parties who have manifestos which oppose/ignore it.
Greens ain't really my cup of tea either, but, as it stands, they are the only other credible, electable Pro-Indy Party capable of helping the SNP Vote over the line to a Pro-Indy Holyrood Majority - and their core-vote seems to be holding up pretty well.
What a snooty little comment this is. Thanks for telling everyone you don't care. How illuminated we all are now.
ReplyDeleteThis character has taken over the blog, flooding it with childish insults and 'jokes' every day. It's pretty much unreadable these days.
DeleteYou're getting your wires crossed there, he's not referring to David Francis. I deleted a comment.
DeleteApologies. But it's interesting you knew who I meant was disrupting the blog.😉
DeleteFame at last, eh?
ReplyDeleteWhen some folk don't like what you say, you're deemed 'disruptive'.
When they like what you say, you can say whatever you want and never hear a cheep from those same folk.
T'was always thus.
Tough.
Grow up
DeleteDitto.
Delete