Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, who was ultimately responsible for commissioning the Norstat poll question about the monarchy and independence, left a series of irate comments on Scot Goes Pop yesterday. Quite frankly I think he was bang out of order, and in any other circumstances I would just have deleted his comments. But instead I replied to his "points", such as they were, and I will do so again in more detail here.
His first complaint was that I had not stated that his question had been a bolt-on to the same Norstat / Sunday Times poll that showed a Yes vote of 54% on the standard independence question. The reason I did not state that is that I did not know, and there was no possible way I could have known for sure. The data tables were not available on the Norstat website, so all I had to go on was Gordon's own tortuously-worded article on the Believe in Scotland website, which seemed to be going out of its way to make it as difficult as possible to work out whether a bolt-on question had been added to the Sunday Times poll or whether a wholly separate poll had been conducted. So I accurately stated the position as it stood - that Gordon's wording had been ambiguous and it was therefore impossible to be sure, but my impression was that a separate poll had been conducted.
Gordon harrumphs that he had made the position "quite clear" in the first sentence of the second paragraph of his "announcement". Er, no you didn't, Gordon. That was the very sentence that led me to form the strong impression that you had commissioned a separate poll and not a bolt-on question, and any other reasonable person would have reached the same conclusion. This is what you said in that sentence -
"Believe in Scotland have always used Norstat as our polling provider and we had a poll of our own going at the same time with the same panel of respondents."
For future reference, Gordon, if you don't want to convey the false impression that you had commissioned a separate poll, it might be best to try not to use highly misleading words like "we had a poll of our own going at the same time". The bit about "the same panel of respondents" did not clear the mists, because by definition all Norstat polls use the same panel - that's the way online polling firms operate. If you had instead said "the same sample", that would have been of more help. But you did not.
Frankly, my guess is that Gordon used ambiguous language quite deliberately, because he feared that directly admitting his question was a bolt-on or "piggy-back" to the Sunday Times poll would have somehow diminished the prestige of his exercise. That in my view is an unwarranted concern, but I think that's probably what was going on.
The cherry on the cake of Gordon's rant was this concluding sentence -
"James you could have just called me have we not always got on well enough?"
I mean, what? Scot Goes Pop is a polling analysis blog that tries to get as much information out as possible, as quickly as possible. Am I supposed to put everything on hold for twelve hours every time there is a point of ambiguity in the way a poll is reported, in the forlorn hope that I might get a clarifying reply from the Scotsman or whatever? I don't operate that way, and I don't plan to start operating that way.
And as it happens, Gordon, I don't think I've got your phone number. Having thought about it, the last time I spoke to you was way back in May 2021 when we appeared together on Independence Live's election results show. I doubt if that date is a coincidence, because I've formed the distinct impression that you and your organisations have quietly distanced yourselves from the likes of me since 2021 - not out of any personal animosity, but simply because you were hostile to the Alba project and were distancing yourselves from anyone associated with it.
But nevertheless it's true that before then we had always got on well enough, which is probably why I held back on Thursday from pointing out the elephant in the room, namely the downright dodgy wording of your poll question -
If Scottish independence meant that Scotland would be a republic - meaning the King would no longer be the head of state, so Scotland’s governance would be fully democratic and not a monarchy - how would you vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow?
The words "so Scotland's governance would be fully democratic" are insanely leading. Even leaving aside the more general problems with hypothetical poll questions that I previously discussed, the use of such leading wording means the results of the poll are of very dubious worth.
Yes I agree, the wording of the question is absurd. It suggests republics like Putin's Russia or Hitler's Germany are and were more democratic than constitutional monarchies like the UK, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Japan, New Zealand and Spain. So just ignore this poll
ReplyDeleteIf only you hadn't put "the UK" in there, that would have been an excellent point.
DeleteAnon at. 12.35pm there has never been democracy for Scotland in the UK. Democracy is the right of England only in the UK.
DeleteScotland doesn't have effective democracy within the UK (niche conjectured situations could give it inconsistently, but that's never happened yet), but the UK as a whole is comparably as democratic as the other places mentioned. The democratic deficit is only readily apparent when the UK is recognised as not being a country in itself, which many people struggle with.
DeleteUtterly hideous post from IFS@1:36.
DeleteI’m actually embarrassed for you.
You're so easily embarrassed, KC.
DeleteKC at 2.40pm - get somebody to buy you a lot of blusher for Xmas because you seem to be continually embarrassed. Got that blood off your hands yet KC. Labour adding dead UK pensioners to its list of thousands of Palestinian women and children. Labour betraying WASPI women. You really need a brass neck being a Labour supporter. Wendy Alexander retired from politics for over 20 years getting a freebie from the taxpayer courtesy of her brother. Freebies seem to be very popular for Labour. What have you got for posting your crap on SGP - a packet of Smarties?
DeleteDislogical - the use of the term " democratic deficit" is a fig leaf used by the SNP to provide cover for their inaction. There is no democracy for Scotland. The evidence is staring people in the face.
DeleteIFS,
DeleteWhat have you got for posting YOUR crap on SGP?
A lot of abuse from Britnat trolls like you KC at 3.09pm and SNP trolls like David Fisher. Well he claims to be SNP but is reluctant to prove it by stating his branch. On the other hand you KC are definitely a Britnat. You both have the same underhand tactics of trolling as a sneaky anon and you KC as independence supporters - at least two different posters - probably more.
DeleteIFS,
DeleteAh yes, I’d forgotten about “Tartan Tam” and others. Had you fooled with them allš. Then their was “Jeff McLean”, don’t think you ever sussed him outš¤£š¤£
KC at 4.17pm - don't remember a Jeff McLean ever posting so you couldnae have fooled me with that. Perhaps others will remember a Jeff McLean, I don't. Or have you just been eating too many Smarties? Do you get an upgrade to a selection box at Xmas.
DeleteI certainly remember Tartan Tam was a right tosser - similar to David Francis. Is he your new phoney unreasonable SNP Independence supporter?
You’re just claiming you don’t remember Jeff McLean because you never managed to suss him out.
DeleteDeleted Anon at 1.50: I suspect you are the same anonymous commenter who has been repeatedly attempting to make personal attacks on multiple threads for the last 36 hours. Would you please just stop. I don't know for sure who you are or what your agenda is, but I can make a shrewd guess on both counts. Take it elsewhere, many thanks.
ReplyDeleteJames, if you were commissioning this poll how exactly would you have posed the question to make the poll more legitimate? I think the word 'republic' needs some sort of definition for most people tbh.
ReplyDeletePolls need to be commissioned by unbiased/neutral organisations to be credible.
ReplyDelete