Friday, June 5, 2020

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll on independence: Yes storms back into the lead in wake of Dominic Cummings episode

For the second time this year, Scot Goes Pop asked for your help to commission an opinion poll on independence, just to check whether a landmark recent event had boosted support for Yes.  The first time around in January, we got the result we wanted - Yes had jumped into the lead with 52% of the vote.  I did worry that it was too much to hope that lightning would strike twice, but what do you know?  It has.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, 1st-5th June 2020):

Yes 52% (+2)
No 48% (-2)

As always, the headline results exclude Don't Knows.  With Don't Knows left in, the results are Yes 48% (+2), No 45% (-1).  Percentage changes are measured from the last Panelbase poll, which was conducted on behalf of Wings Over Scotland early last month.

This is the fourth Panelbase poll on independence in 2020 so far.  The sequence of results for Yes has been 52 - 49 - 50 - 52.  All of those results are theoretically within the margin of error, so there are a couple of ways of interpreting what we've seen - it could be that the Yes vote has been holding steady over the last few months after an initial post-election surge, and that the differing results have been caused by random sampling variation.  Or it could be that the surge subsided just slightly in late winter and early spring as attention turned away from Brexit and towards the coronavirus crisis, and that there has now been a bounce back for Yes as a result of the Dominic Cummings episode and the UK government's mishandling of the pandemic.  I must say that looking at the results of the supplementary questions from this poll (which I'll release over the coming days), I'm inclined much more towards the latter theory.

The datasets show a now-familiar pattern.  A large minority (35%) of people who voted Labour in the general election would vote Yes.  Significantly more No voters from the first indyref (18%) have changed sides than Yes voters (8%).  That's different from polls a few years ago that showed post-2014 progress for Yes without any net movement at all from No voters - back then it was 2014 non-voters who were making the difference.  That suggests to me that the current Yes lead is built on much more solid foundations.

Naturally, most Yes voters are Remainers.  56% of people who voted to stay in the EU would now back independence.  But in fairness a healthy minority of Leave voters (34%) are on the Yes side too.

The results of the poll were, in line with standard practice, weighted by both 2019 Westminster vote and 2014 indyref vote.  The latter led to Yes voters being downweighted somewhat, although nowhere near as drastically as is sometimes the case.  (Among those likely to vote in a new referendum, 387 Yes voters were reduced to 371 in the weighted sample.)  It's worth making the point that 2014 is now six years ago, and there may come a point in the coming years where pollsters will conclude that weighting by the indyref result is no longer sensible, simply due to the sheer passage of time and the increasing danger of false recall.  If and when that happens, it will probably result in at least a slight average boost for the reported Yes vote share.

There are several more questions to come from this poll - I'll be releasing the details bit by bit.  If you'd like to be the first to know every step of the way, you can follow me on Twitter HERE.

75 comments:

  1. Its Friday...I have had a glass of wine...I could greet! Will I see independence in my life time? How long have you got I hear you ask! Who knows.

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  2. Average = 51% for one of the least Yes-friendly pollsters.

    Steady as she goes.

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  3. "Significantly more No voters from the first indyref (18%) have changed sides than Yes voters (8%). That's different from polls a few years ago that showed post-2014 progress for Yes without any net movement at all from No voters - back then it was 2014 non-voters who were making the difference. That suggests to me that the current Yes lead is built on much more solid foundations."

    Good news. And if it's a no-deal brexit...?

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  4. Wait to people realise we are away to get chlorinated chicken from the USA.

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    Replies
    1. Ain't that the truth ��

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    2. But, Marcia, you would be missing out on a unique experience. Here in the USA, eating chicken is a religious experience - very important for a large chunk of the southern part of the country. You never know when this religious feeling will wash over you but when it does it is unmistakable and something you simply cannot ignore. The Great Porcelain God is a merciful one who accepts the sins of your stomach unerringly.

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  5. Do weightings allow for mortality. i.e. could the reason that 2014 yessers keep needing to be weighted down because a higher proportion are still alive compared to no voters? If mortality isn't being allowed for but things are being weighted to 2014 vote then could be underestimating yes.

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  6. James, when applying weighting for the 2014 vote, do they take demographics in to account, or do they simply weight by percentage? I ask because the elderly were more inclined to vote No than the young, and after six years we will have lost a significant percentage of that elderly cohort, and gained a similar number of new youngsters.

    I know you are not a great believer in the demographic shift effect, but I'd be interested to know of the weighting by 2014 recall might be artificially lowering the Yes vote because of this.

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  7. I expect a lot of SNP-bad stories in the next 2-5 days to keep that poll out of the headlines.

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  8. So only 48% of Scots would back Yes including Don't Knows and only 34% of Scots want indyref2 within the next two years on your poll

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    1. Only 45% want the union, and well, enjoy your last two years of it, as that will pass in a flash.

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    2. 55% have already voted for the Union and less than 50% of Scots including Don't Knows want independence still

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    3. Applying your "logic" HIFUD, the 55.3% NO vote in 2014 and therefore supportr for your precious union has DROPPED LIKE A STONE to 45% in 2020. 10% points drop !!!

      Good stuff as I'm sure you'll agree.

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    4. Oh, jeez, we're gettin' Britnat troll overspill from WoS on here now. It must be getting real thin gruel over there if even the rats are leaving...

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    5. Including DK's, 46.8% voted for the union in 2014.

      So, the current 48% yes including DK shows support for indy to be greater today than support for the union was in 2014.

      I appreciate you pointing that out HYUFD; I'm not sure I'd have noticed otherwise.

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    6. Only if you assume every Scot votes, even in 2014 turnout was over 80% but still well under 100%

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    7. I directly compared using your calculation method. Only 46.8% of the electorate voted No in 2014.

      This poll has 48% saying they'd go out and vote for independence tomorrow, with just 45% saying they'd vote No.

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    8. HYUFD isn't great with numbers. He previously thought 39% was a majority.

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  9. 62% would see me getting hopeful, but in the middle of a fuktup pandemic and 10 years of Tory austerity pish we're at 52%, I despair.

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    1. I personally felt bit like that when we were down below 30% in 2012.

      But then I'm maybe a little more optimistic than you.

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    2. 52% is good during the pandemic as instead of going back to nurse i.e. Westminster they are not that impressed with Westminster.

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    3. Followed by Tartan Tory austerity.

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    4. That's exactly it Marcia. The Unionists have been playing as hard as they can "How would pathetic Scotland do without the deep pockets of Westminster?" And the answer it came loud and clear:

      "Fine thanks, shut and anti-bac the door behind you".

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    5. 52% would mean we're Independent...

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  10. If foreigners are dying in a larger scale from the virus then the Union is safe. We should encourage large gatherings of Nat sis and lefties.(without mmasks).

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    1. A lot of foreigners were murdered by a lot of your friends during WW2.

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    2. only a few weeks ago the news was, the UK is not doing to good but, look at Italy they're right in the shite,
      now it's the UK that's in the shite, it's, look how bad things are in Brazil,
      any port in a storm.

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  11. What's really put a smile on my face is how much this poll has annoyed some unionists.

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  12. Sectarianists will never change, cowards and low lifes

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    1. Aye, it's something I look forward to under indy; an end to British sectarianism.

      As Scottish-Irish-French cathestant/protolic by heritage then marriage, I'm no time for sectarianism.

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    2. Except you hate the English working class.

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    3. It's you that's anti-English. You hate the idea of a proud, independent English state. You despise the very idea of Englishness and England.

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    4. How does Scottish Indy have anything to do with an independent English State?

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    5. Oh, Garrulous Witless Clown, you mean those famous "internationalists" who wanted the whole world to go away? Except that the world has a rather inconvenient way of intruding anyway! Nasty virus one week, TrumpCo chlorinated chicken the next. (It's a hard life, living on wishful thinking. Just drives a sufferer to more and more!)

      Oh, and here's the bitterest rub: what guess these beloved English lumpen proles actually give a toss for the likes of an abject cringer like you? (For an answer, just take a peek at what they say about the Scots on "Question Time"...)

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    6. I bet you were so chuft with those words you did not have to fondle yourself.

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    7. 'How does Scottish Indy have anything to do with an independent English State?'

      How did my post have anything to do with Scottish indy?

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    8. It's amusing how some don't realise that those who are rabidly anti-Scottish indy are likewise rabidly anti-English indy.

      Just like they call scots 'lazy, deep fried mars bar eating subsidy junkies', so they likewise believe the English are 'violent, beer swilling, football hooligan workshy scroungers'.

      They are as anti-English as they are anti-Scottish. Obviously. They hate the whole idea of England as a country as much as they hate the idea of Scotland as one. You just don't hear it much because the English have not shown huge interest in indy, at least not until lately.

      You know how the English flag is supposedly 'racist' and associated with the far right? Who pushes that idea? Yes, the brits, even though the BNP, NF, Britain first use the union jack for good reason. If an ENP started gaining popularity, the anti-English abuse from GWC would follow rapidly. Ask him about EVEL and see if he likes the English parliament - a cornerstone of English identity/culture - for example...

      I'm pro-England/English, GWC is anti-England/English.

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    9. I assumed as you were posting on a Scottish Indy thread it did. Anyhow I have never seen GWC show any interest in if England becomes independent or not. His posts are about Scottish Indy and Brexit which if course nothing to do with that.

      So struggling to see how GWC is anti English.

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    10. I'm really pro-England. I believe an ancient, proud nation with this own distinct, vibrant culture and I identity, fully capable of taking it's place in the world alongside other countries. GWC would completely disagree here; he's totally anti-England.

      The Brits would rather see England relegated to a mere region, and get the BBC to tell everyone the St. George's cross is racist etc. The Brits were reluctant even to give England devolution, such was their anti-English racism.

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    11. England should become Independent, they need to be braver, I'm sure they'd survive and be OK, they can't keep hanging on to Scotlands coatails forever. it's time they grew up

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    12. It would be strange if I were anti English considering my maws maw wis English. The English were right to oppose more tiers of government. Lining the pockets of more politicians will not help the working class. It is strange with all the poverty we have the Nat sis just want more and more politicians.

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    13. Don't worry skier, after best part of 20 years living in England can tell that for the most part the English don't mind being in a Union. THey will happily support the England team in a sport one day and then and then the Union team another etc. Don't have English people loosing their shit becasue the union flag is flying instead of the English one. Its only Scottish nationists that have problems with that.

      Certainly not the English that tell me that i'm not a true Scot or Scottish because i don't support Scottish independence its only Scottish nationalists that do that.

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    14. Pretty arrogant to speak for the English like that; my English friends don't see you as speaking for them and think you are a dick for trying to.

      Maybe you should leave how England is governed to the English rather than doing the typical British thing of assuming you know best and speaking for everyone without their permission?

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    15. Personally, I'm a big unionist. I voted for the union in 2014, i.e. so that Scotland could be in union with all the other nations of the UK and Europe. Sadly, British separatist nationalism won the day in 2016 and Scotland is now leaving the union.

      In the next iref I will again vote for unionism. It's just a pity England (and Wales?) don't want to be in that union, but it's up to them.

      True unionists support an independent Scotland, England etc in union with one another, such as the in the EU or even an EU-style UK. British nationalists however support making the nations of the UK just regions of a greater British superstate.

      I certainly have much more respect for England than the British as I would support English independence if that's what people there wanted. British nationalists by contrast hate the idea of England as a country.

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    16. Good for your friends, obviously that means nothing, I have never said or presumed or said i was speaking for the whole of the English population. As i said I have spent 20 yeaes living in England and commenting on my observations based on that. This is normal.

      Of course as someone living in England i don't lead governing to the English that just stupid. I vote in the English local elections. The fact that i'm not English does not matter a jot.

      Of course Scottish nationalists don't agree with seen plenty saying that the English should not have a vote in Indyref2 even if they live in Scotland.

      True unionists support an independent Scotland

      I have no problem being called British. I am a British Scot. Its only you nationalists that try and make that into some kind of insult and that you can't be both.

      As i say the only people who have ever told me that i am not a true/proper Scot because I don't support independence are Scottish Nationalists.

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    17. Of course this is your experience. England has 85% of UK population which is why it all feels so comfortable. You've been away from Scotland for twenty years you said! That's a long time and given you vote in England it means your participation in Scottish democracy is as an outsider. As such, your postings came across as faintly patronising because they your assume a right to speak opinions into something that is a primarily a matter for people who live, work and vote in Scotland.

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    18. Being able to give an opinion is normal in a free society. People do it all the time. People comment on the politics of countries they do not live in all the time. James, for example, was very vocal about his support for Bernie Sanders during the Democratic Primaries. Hes an outsider and has no democratic right to have any influence on who becomes the next US President, but there is nothing wrong with him posting his opinion on the matter.

      Same with me, obviously if there is a second indyref i will not vote in it (as i did not in 2014) because I don't live in Scotland. I have English friends who live in Scotland who did vote in 2014 and would be able to again in a second Indy ref. As i said above, its just nationalists that I have seen saying they want to take the vote away from my friends just because they were born in England and nationalists telling me I should not get a vote in England just because I was not born there.

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    19. If you've been living in England for 20 years, then why does it bother you what Scotland does? For political purposes you are English now.

      If you are not prepared to live and work in Scotland, then you shouldn't be telling people who are how it should be run. The respectful attitude would be 'Well, I don't live in Scotland now so if my former countryfolk wish to go for indy, then good luck to them!'.

      And it shows how little you understand your former country when you call people who support indy 'nationalists'. This is nonsensical when the vast majority of them support unionism and actually voted for that en masse recently. Twice.

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    20. Anyway, having lived in Scotland for the past 40+ years, from asking around, it seems most folk back unionism and would vote Yes to it in iref2.

      Ties in with the above poll which shows 52% for unionism and only 48% for British nationalist separatism.

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    21. Erm i've never told people what they should do, i give my opinion. As I said people do this all the time. Of course what Scotland does ref indy will effect me in England.

      I call people who support Scottish Independence from the UK nationalists because that is the dictionary definition:
      nationalist
      noun [ C ] POLITICS

      a person who wants their country to be politically independent

      If you want Scotland to politically independent from the UK then you are a Nationalist - its really pretty basic stuff.

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  13. An increase of +2 from Panalbase's last poll is a good result. It does get tougher from here as most of the low hanging fruit has been bagged already, still we're on top and have been for the majority of 2020.

    Looking forward to the results from the rest of the poll.

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  14. Scottish Minister for EqualityJune 6, 2020 at 12:27 AM

    Dear fellow Scots and some English bastards living in Scotland, please do not integrate and have children. Scotland prefers to have EU and anyone except the English shagging our fat girls.

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  15. This is a sad day for the Scottish Nazis. The Normandy Landings Anniversary. Their wee bum boy pal Adolf was eventually defeated.

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  16. The Corona 19 virus is intelligent. It disappears during riots.

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  17. I hear there will be a virtual Orange Wok in Belfast this 13 July 2020. Good thing too I say. The defeat of Charles the 2nd at the Boyne should be celebrated.

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    1. Charles 2nd aye?

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    2. Aye, I read about that. Queen Victoria personally put Charles to flight when she drove a Panzer tank across the Boyne. 200 years later, in 1815, Bonnie Prince Colin was routed at the Alamo by Batman and the English Defence League. This paved the way for the stormtroopers of the Scottish Defence League and the Govan Apprentice Boys who have bravely guarded our borders ever since.
      Bellend!

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    3. Charles II at the Battle of the Boyne!
      That destroys any vestige of worth in his opinions.

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  18. Remember George Floyd

    He's not pink, he's fucking Black!

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  19. Unionists losing it over the poll I see. Brightens my morning.

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    1. I doubt anything could brighten the life of a Scottish Nat si.

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  20. These poll results are interesting, but in the grand scheme are pretty meaningless. We're in the midst of a pandemic. Minds are occupied with matters of life and death right now. The notion that Scots want nationalism now or any time soon is fanciful.

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    1. You are incorrect on both points, in the grand scheme to use your language more and more Scots have been exposed to the incompetencies of the UK because of their handling of the pandemic, moreover that had Scotland been a normal country like others in the world there are many things we could have prevented from happening but were without the power to implement

      Scotland has to wait until the UK government borrows money in order that Scotland is loaned its percentage of that debt
      If Scotland were a normal country it could and would have borrowed its own money without a waiting time and without being allocated from a central treasury in London

      If a tiny little Inependent country like Iceland with a population of 335.000 can spend more per head and or borrow more per head of the population than the entire UK and deal with all their financial problems when they have far less assets than Scotland then this union of the so called UK is definitely a drawback not bonus

      Of course had Scotland been a normal country let's say like Norway who have a trillion dollars oil reserve fund saved for emergencies, like Norway Scotland wouldn't ever have to borrow at all, because well all of that money was stolen from Scotland and spent by the UK government and covered up by Secretary of State Iain Lang on behalf of the Margaret Thatcher Tory government, and the documents to prove it are now all in the public domain and can be accessed by anyone

      Just not reported by the BBC of course

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    2. Next week is fine with me.

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    3. "The notion that Scots want nationalism now or any time soon is fanciful."

      If 'nationalism' is code for 'independence', then what the poll shows is that Scots do want independence now or some time soon. You may personally think they're wrong to want it, but that's what the poll shows.

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  21. The majority of Scots don't want separation from rUK. They rejected nationalism before and would do so again. The independence "plan" would fall to pieces when subjected to scrutiny. The polls would tell a different story then.

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    Replies
    1. We will keep our Union together in the name of Jesus

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    2. That's your commie union Jesus, so tell Stalin to Fuck Off!

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    3. But let's not ask them, just in case.

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  22. Oh f**k.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52944037

    There have been warnings coronavirus may be starting to spread again in the north-west and the south-west of England.

    Some scientists say the R number is creeping up across the country and may have surpassed one - the point at which the epidemic takes off again - in these regions.

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  23. Thanks for the belly laugh GWC.
    Your pig ignorance reaches new depths. Even the most pointy skulled Orange bigot usually knows which kings were at the Boyne - but not you apparently. When you look it up, in your vast library, you'll also find that the hard work on the day was done by Dutch and Danish troops. William gave it to them because he felt unable to depend on the reliability of the north Irish and English units present.
    Ain't it a pig when the facts don't fit your sad wee prejudices ?

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    1. The number of times he must have sung "King James and all his rebel band" from his wee plastic seat in Greyskull you'd think GWC would know who was at the Boyne after visiting Derry. 🤔

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    2. GWC Master HistorianJune 6, 2020 at 7:35 PM

      Nah you guys are wrong. The British defeated the Vatican agent King James 2 at Culloden. Henry 1X defeated the Catholics at Derry after breaking the Boom.

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