Panelbase have released the datasets for a couple of questions from the Wings poll, and a few interesting points leap out. First of all, respondents who didn't vote in the 2014 referendum are split virtually down the middle on independence. That may not seem particularly surprising or significant, but if you cast your mind back, there have been quite a few polls in recent years that showed Yes above the 45% recorded in September 2014, but in which there was no net swing to Yes among people who actually voted in that referendum - the increase was totally driven by a Yes majority among 2014 non-voters, which raised the possibility that the new Yes recruits might be relatively flaky or might not even turn out to vote next time. There are no such worries in this poll - the 50/50 split in the headline result can be explained mostly by the fact that there is a greater proportion of 2014 No voters who have switched to Yes (18%) than of 2014 Yes voters who have switched to No (12%).
It's always slightly taboo to point something like this out, but among people who were actually born in Scotland there is a clear 53% to 47% majority in favour of independence. Of course every vote is equal and it doesn't matter where people have come from as long as they have made Scotland their home. But I do think it's worthy of some note that people who have been here all or most of their lives appear to want to become an independent country, albeit by a narrow margin. It's probably fair to say that a substantial proportion of residents from south of the border have only been here for a short time and are opposed to independence in quite a reflexive way - they may not even take the idea particularly seriously. But strangely enough, even if the poll had been confined to people who were born in the UK, there would have been a slim Yes majority - because respondents from beyond these shores break for No by 57% to 43%.
Once again, a significant minority (36%) of the rump Labour vote from last year's general election say they would vote Yes. That leaves Keir Starmer with a big problem. By appointing the militant British nationalist Ian Murray as his Shadow Scottish Secretary, he appears to have calculated that Labour have no further to fall and that they can claw back support from the Tories with a hardline anti-independence stance. But the arithmetic is clear - if Labour alienate the one-third of their remaining voters who support independence, they could actually fall a lot further than the 19% of the vote they recorded in December. And that's before you even consider the fact that Labour lost far more votes to the SNP in 2015 and 2019 than they did to the Tories in 2017. To truly get back in the game, it's pro-independence votes they would need.