Thursday, May 28, 2020

CROWDFUNDER: Help Scot Goes Pop commission a post-Cummings poll on independence

As I mentioned in the previous post, a number of readers have suggested to me over the last couple of days that now would be a good time to crowdfund a second Scot Goes Pop poll on independence. The Cummings scandal has already led to really remarkable slumps in Boris Johnson's approval ratings and in the Conservative lead in GB-wide polls. It's conceivable - and I only say conceivable - that there might have been a similar effect on the independence question, and some people are keen to find out. To be honest, I was unsure if it was such a great idea to attempt to crowdfund in the middle of a pandemic when many people are struggling, so I asked for your views, and the reaction to the proposal was largely positive - albeit not unanimously so.

We'll give it a whirl and see how it goes. Last time around I contacted five different polling companies, and they each quoted different prices, so even if we fall a bit short of the target figure, it may still be possible to run a poll if I shop around a bit and limit the number of questions.

Click here to go straight to the fundraising page.

Hi, my name's James Kelly, and I run the pro-independence blog Scot Goes Pop, which has a particular emphasis on opinion poll analysis. You might remember that back in January, I decided to step into the breach due to a mysterious lack of polls on independence since the general election. With your help, I commissioned a poll from Panelbase which confirmed, as we all suspected, that there had been a significant swing to Yes as a result of Brexit becoming an inevitability.

In recent days, there has been another landmark event with the potential to cause a major shift in public opinion. The revelations about the Prime Minister's chief adviser, and his subsequent refusal to resign, has led to hurt and anger among millions of people who have made considerable personal sacrifices to obey the lockdown rules since March. We already know that the Conservative lead in Britain-wide polls has fallen sharply as a result, and it's reasonable to wonder if it may have caused some No voters in Scotland to think again about independence.

A number of people have asked me to put that to the test by commissioning a second Scot Goes Pop poll on independence. If this crowdfunder is successful, that's what will happen. The new poll will ask the standard independence question 'Should Scotland be an independent country?', and will also ask for party political voting intentions to see if those have been altered by the events of recent days. There will be room for a few supplementary questions of interest to the Yes movement - I have some ideas, but I'll ask for suggestions before making a final decision.

Before you donate, bear in mind that there's no guarantee whatsoever that the poll will show a swing to Yes. Just because we may feel that's intuitively likely doesn't mean that we're right. The purpose of the exercise is to find out one way or the other - although if by any chance there is a boost for Yes, the poll could provide some useful momentum for the independence campaign as lockdown restrictions are gradually eased.

Bear in mind also that there's always a chance that an independence poll could suddenly appear in a newspaper at any time. Even if that happens, I'll take the Mastermind approach of "I've started so I'll finish". There would still be considerable value in a 'second opinion' from a further poll, and the supplementary questions would still be well worth asking.


Click here if you'd like to donate.

48 comments:

  1. TBH, I am always a bit doubtful about these polls and how the information is gathered. I am 58 years old, an average pro independence Scottish person and in all my life I have never been asked my opinion in a poll. Nor has nay member of my family. I kinda have a view that they have folk they 'poll' and folk they don't. I will donate anyway. Thanks for the blog.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you want to be polled, there's a simple way of ensuring that happens - join a volunteer polling panel. Typically you'll be paid 50p for every poll you're invited to participate in.

      Delete
    2. With poll sample sizes of around 1000 and a adult population of around 4.5 million. Assuming that all polling companies have the ability to contact every adult in the country with a 100% success rate you'd be contacted roughly once in every 4,500 polls.

      My wife has been contacted for a telephone poll once. I've done some yougov ones (though I've signed up on their website for that)

      Delete
  2. Missed out on the last crowdfund so doubled what I would usually give to something like this.

    This polling is important for morale, but for my tuppence worth I think its important to learn as much as possible about learning what arguments will swing soft no's to yes. If we're going to win decisively next time that will be so so vital.

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  3. It’s certainly the right time to start raising funds for a poll. Happy to chip in and happy to leave it up to you as to when to trigger it.

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    Replies
    1. Arthur RingpieceMay 30, 2020 at 5:40 PM

      I agree with you and what you are saying very much indeed.

      Delete
  4. Think that there is sometimes a misconception that they don't, but polling companies have to follow the same rules/laws regarding contacting people as any other company does. There is no difference between emailing/calling someone asking them to take part in a poll than there is calling/emailing someone trying to sell them double glazing.

    So the reason that many people never get contacted is because they have never given their details to be contacted either directly through the polling company or indirectly through marketing lists gathered through other sites that are then sold on to the polling companies.

    Incidentally one of the reason that polling companies pay you for completing polls is because in doing so they are no longer using your details for marketing purposes (your details are being provided for your financial gain) and therefore bypass some of the rules/legislation around marketing communication.

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  5. If you intend to be part of any polling I can tell you a story of my experience when contacted by Prof Curtice polling people
    They sent a nice lady to my home who interviewd me and I filled in a very long questionaire all taking around 90 minutes,
    They promised to be contacting me each time there might be further polling on all sorts of subjects after they paid me £10 voucher to be cashed at the post office for taking part with promises of a further £5 each time I was to be polled

    I never heard from them again

    There is a question in the questionaire asking if you are a member of a political party and which one, if you don't mind answering, I didn't mind and ticked the box SNP

    Now take a wild guess as to why I wasn't contacted again

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Polling companies have hundreds if not thousands of people on their lists and your name has just not been selected? Unless you are seriously suggesting polling companies are deliberately and purposely not polling SNP members and have evidence of this.

      I mean I have undertaken home polls the same as you and also logged that I am a Labour and have never been chosen either. Are polling companies deliberately not polling Labour members either..sounds shocking to me!

      Delete
  6. Equally I'm on both yougov and panelbase panels, registered as snp supporter, and have been invited to several polls.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was invited to take part in the *What Scotland thinks*
      I ticked the SNP box and never heard from them again
      I'm in Scotland and I think, but it looks like I don't think the right things

      Delete
    2. Was that the Social Attitudes Survey? There's only one of those a year.

      Delete
    3. They told me they surveyed many subjects, that was two years ago, I specifically asked if this was to do with Prof Curtice and the lady who interviewd me said yes he was involved

      Delete
  7. Ashley Watson: I've deleted your comment because it's on the wrong thread. I'll paste it onto the thread where I asked for views on whether to go ahead with a poll, but the decision has already been taken based on majority support for the idea. This post is about a fundraiser to make the poll happen.

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  8. Are they still doing Scottish Social Attitude Surveys? I haven't seen a new one for a couple of years. Looked on their website, too, and on the web in general. Nothing

    ReplyDelete
  9. Oh how I miss the EU handing out the butter to us poor Scots.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Good for the parsnips...butter that is. Not your fine words.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Light olive oil speckled with melted brown sugar.

      Delete
    2. Poncy snob

      Delete
  11. Christ on a bike, Wings has come up with yet another indecipherable pile of polling nonsense that he and only he possesses the divine ability to decipher to mean that the SNP are just awfully bad and he was right all the time when he demanded the head of Nicola Sturgeon as the person responsible for all the ills that have befallen Stuart Campbell and his very own bad behaviour

    Even his faithful are deserting this boring sad little man now, because they're cottoning on to him

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. His blogpost today is a unionist post. He seems to have asked a convoluted poll question specifically in the hope of getting a unionist answer, and then gleefully reported the results in the most unionist possible terms. I can't make head nor tail of what he's doing anymore, or why he's doing it. In what sense is Wings Over Scotland a pro-indy site these days?

      Delete
    2. ...Louise...

      Yes! I've just commented the same! He seems to spend his time trying to work out how to ask a question that will have the worst possible answer.

      Delete
    3. He cares nothing for independence as he is blinded by his hatred for Nicola Sturgeon and everything SNP. Wings has outlived its usefulness to independence and is now more of an embarrassment.
      It is no longer a pro-indy site and 90% of the comments are by right wing Unionists and he doesn't care.

      Delete
    4. Unionists are not right wing. The Scottish Nutt zis are right wing. They are adherents of Maggie policies.

      Delete
  12. ..Louise..

    Talking of polls, I see that chap has released another snippet from his Panelbase poll where he asked yet another convoluted and, as he admits he asked "in a strange way". Colour me surprised that the result means the SNP should be worried.

    I'm tired of convoluted questions that are geared to manipulate people, so I sincerely hope your polls will continue to ask straight questions that don't tie the participants up in knots!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Asking the same question begets the same answers. Why not ask in a different way and see what happens? What is your problem with that?

      Are you kezzy dykeface in disguise?

      Delete
  13. ScottytheScotinScotlandMay 29, 2020 at 8:41 PM

    Wings may post a lot of crap at times but at other times is spot on.

    Too many Independence supporters are showing signs of the Cringe. We must wait till the clown in Downing st deems to grant us a sect 30. Pathetic - cap in hand Cringe.

    We are nearly there - they say - never been better - best opportunity ever - the same people were saying the same thing years and years ago. We want to win it not have a referendum - they say - I've got news for you it ain't going to happen. Johnston won't agree a sect 30 and Sturgeon won't proceed with a referendum.

    CAP IN HAND - please Mr Johnson can I have a referendum. No fuck of back to Jocko land will be Johnsons reply.

    It is 4 years since we voted to REMAIN in the EU - what happened - May and then Johnson told us to fuck off - what did the SNP do - fuck all except keep asking us to vote for them to give them a mandate for ??????? - that's right another mandate for a referendum. Bloody laughing stock.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great plan! Dump the SNP that'll teach the Unionists we mean business. You obviously learned a lot by reading Wings.

      Delete
    2. Amazing. You could be a resurrected labour quisling from 1979 -present day. Same arse different cheek. Why vote for a party that lies to you? A party which introduces a law to criminalise being a white male. The feminazis are moaning about the hate crime law as it affects them and their fight against the trannyfannies, yet Women are protected under those proposed laws. MEN are not. Unless they are perverts or immigrants.

      Now persuade me to vote for a pervert protecting party which lies to my face and actively persecutes me for the crime of being born male and Scottish.

      Delete
    3. ScottytheScotinScotlandMay 29, 2020 at 10:27 PM

      Anonymous - 8.54pm

      I never said dump the SNP - it seems you cannot read.

      I never put forward a plan - if seems you cannot read.

      I base my opinions not on what Wings says but on what the SNP say.

      Delete
    4. Blame Alex Salmond for the section 30 order nonsense, he did the deal with David Cameron when he didn't have to and locked out future bids for Independence without it

      The situation was only saved when Nicola Sturgeon had the clause inserted into the Smith Commission which stated Scotland would be entitled to have another vote on Independence when the people of Scotland decided

      Read the Smith Commission paragraph 18

      Alex Salmond gummed up the works when he threw away a six point lead in a week
      Nicola Sturgeon has taken that 45% and turned it into 63% albeit the timing fluctuates as to when people want a referendum

      Delete
    5. ScottytheScotinScotlandMay 29, 2020 at 11:28 PM

      Anonymous 11.04pm

      Quite a lot of nonsense in a few short paragraphs.

      Nicola Sturgeon was fully involved in the Edinburgh Agreement. It didn't lock out future bids for independence without it.

      I don't need to read the Smith commission I am well aware of the clause. So we do not need Johnson/sect 30 permission. So why does Nicola Sturgeon go CAP IN HAND asking for permission?

      Your last sentence is just nonsense conflating different polling questions.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous has an awful lot to say for himself. It's like verbal diaria commenting on everything and even disagreeing with himself. Take a chill pill, fruity.

      Delete
  14. Time now to cut back on the unnecessary over abundance of politicians. They know they are not needed especially in Holyrood and House of Lords. The MEP wasters have basically gone. The working taxpayer cannot subsidise those idle politicians.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Since I'm bored.

    According to the Gers 2019 figures Scotland generated a total of £1,179,000,000 from alcohol duties.

    The signboard outside the Diagio plant in Cambus states they fill casks with 200,000,000 Litres of spirit every year.

    Spirit duty is £28.74 a litre of ethanol.

    So one plant is processing enough spirit to generate £5,748,000,000 in duty on an annual basis.
    Even if that meant spirit at cask strength of 60% and not pure alcohol then it is still worth £3,449,000,000 a year.

    You may have noticed that one of those numbers is a lot larger than the other one. Now why is nobody in the SNP fighting against the Yoon subsidy liars with these easily available figures?

    Why did that cretin wilson say we should be paying towards english debt when Scotland has had a surplus every year of the 20th and 21st centuries?

    Why must I put up with my vote being held to ransom by the SNP when they do nothing and betray everyone?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kenneth AndersonMay 30, 2020 at 12:49 PM

      I like the sound of you. A lot. I'm going to be thinking about you.

      Delete
  16. This is a great idea and at least with James it will have competent questions rather than from that other place "Do you think Sturgon should be replaced: Yes / Don't Know" eliminating the DKs the result is ...

    ReplyDelete
  17. You want to bring down the UK, well here's how you do it

    Every document the UK government produces is headed *Her Majesty's government*

    Now the Queen, that is the Monarchy, has no legal constitutional standing within the UK so how can the UK claiming they are a democracy also claim they work for the Monarch

    It's a lie, and it's a lie invented to confuse the people mainly of England that they have both things, a democracy and a Monarchy, but legally both these things cannot exist simultaneously

    So if you can find a lawyer who's prepared to end their career in order to accept that case then you would instruct him/her to take the legal principle of the declaration of authority the Monarchy posesses to court

    Then sit back and watch the UK implode on itself

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Queen is an old muppet with more common sense than all the combined collective minds of the Irish settlers in Scotland who claim to be Scottish. We Unionists know you Knuttzis are not Scottish. Go back home the leprechauns need picking.

      Delete
  18. The Remainer Theresa May and EU cohorts still trying to undermine Cummings who screwed them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If my name was Dorothea Grodscup I'd change it. FACT

      Delete
  19. Anon: Seriously, my tolerance for your "it's just the flu"/"it's just a sniffle" drivel is literally non-existent. Comment deleted. Go away and take your disinformation with you.

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    Replies
    1. And looking at the people I've actually retweeted over the last few hours, presumably it must be Fergus Walsh (BBC Medical Correspondent), Professor Devi Sridhar, Professor John Edmunds and Sir David King who you are accusing of being "anti-science". Best of luck with that.

      Delete
  20. Entered the fray with a modest donation.

    ReplyDelete