Friday, February 14, 2020

"It's within the margin of error, Joanna, let's be clear about that"

Just a quick post about last night's Question Time from Dundee (a pro-independence city that mysteriously always seems to do an impersonation of Buckinghamshire whenever the BBC pay a visit).  When Joanna Cherry pointed out that the last three opinion polls had shown a majority for independence, the host Fiona Bruce made two forceful interruptions -

"It's within - it's within the margin of error, Joanna, let's be clear about that."

"They're within the margin of error, so they can't - they're not as strong as you'd like them to be, I'm sure."

You'd think Ms Bruce might be a bit wary about making interventions on the subject of opinion polls, given that she had to issue a humiliating apology a year ago after she "corrected" (in rather mocking fashion) a comment Diane Abbott made about the polls, only for it to turn out that the "correction" was inaccurate and that Ms Abbott's original claim had been entirely right all along.  But was Ms Bruce on stronger ground last night?

Well...up to a point, Lord Copper.  It's true that, on an individual basis, all three of the recent polls show a Yes lead that is within the margin of error.  But when several polls all show the same thing, the equation changes somewhat.  If, for example, there were eight or ten polls that all showed Yes in the low 50s, the margin of error would no longer be an alibi, because that wouldn't be happening by chance.  (It would still be possible that there was a systemic methodological error across the polling industry causing Yes to be overestimated, but the point is that it wouldn't be happening due to random sampling variation.)  With only three polls, it's a bit less clear-cut - it's less likely that the margin of error is causing an illusory Yes lead than would be the case if there was only one poll, but it's still possible.  So, yes, Ms Bruce technically had a valid point, albeit a weaker one than she probably thought.

But the wider issue here is the double-standard.  There have been long spells over the last few years when the No vote in the polls was averaging out at around 53%, or 52%, or 51%.  And it's scarcely been unusual for unionist politicians on Question Time and other programmes to make the point that "polls show the people of Scotland are still opposed to independence".  Can you ever remember, even once, a host or interviewer jumping in to say "but it's within the margin of error"?  Nope, me neither.

I gather Jackson Carlaw has been all over the airwaves today falsely claiming that the overwhelming majority of Scots don't want a second independence referendum.  Did any interviewer correct him by pointing out that the YouGov poll shows that most Scots in fact want a referendum within five years, and that the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll shows that most Scots think Brexit is a big enough change of circumstances to justify a referendum, and that Holyrood should legislate for one even without a Section 30 order?  Probably not.

140 comments:

  1. Boris Johnson has entirely changed into a lovely normal and respectful politician though or when Jackson Carlaw trumpeted on several occasions that Boris Johnson was "Not fit to be Prime Minister" he was somehow mistaken, or could it be, heaven forfend, that Jackson Carlaw is an even bigger liar than his predecessor the sectarian bigot Ruth Davidson

    It's always so difficult to decide between all these Tory paragons of virtue as to which ones are worse than the ones gone before

    Very much like a cult, wouldn't you say

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    1. And an evangelical, faith-based one at that, by which I mean a set of beliefs with no rational basis that insists on trying to convert other people to its point of view.

      Whereas we independentistas have bloody good reasons for wanting independence, one of which is that we don't want to be ruled by obnoxious, deluded, arrogant, greedy, authoritarian, overprivileged, ignorant, overentitled, antidemocratic and gratuitously offensive Bullingdon Boys, their nasty little pals and their nasty little cruel, inhumane and repulsive ideologies.

      Delete
  2. Could easily be cleared up by a referendum.

    But then Johnson won't let unionists vote for the the union any more, rendering the Scottish Tories pointless as a vote in Holyrood 2021, certainly if they stand on a 'No to iref' ticket.

    What will the Tories actually campaign for in the next election? If they do go for 'No to iref2' and the SNP win, then there should be an iref. If they don't campaign on that and the SNP win, the SNP get a mandate for an iref anyway, probably with an even bigger margin.

    Johnson has totally neutered the English conservative & unionist party, Scottish branch office. He's wiped out their entire reason for existing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What will the SNP campaign for, not independence obviously. They have shown that all Boris needs to do is say no and they moan for bit before doing nothing.

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  3. Strange how the pro independence City of Dundee is the drugs capital of Europe. Maybe their brains are pickled before they go to the polls.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Drug policy is a matter reserved to Westminster.

      Delete
    2. Great Wittering Canute, indefatigable in your vainglorious but pathetically comic solo attempts to divert from the unstoppable rising tide: independence is coming. Get used to it. (Oh, and in the meantime, get a life.)

      Delete
    3. Reserved or not hardly matters Dundee is in Scotland and the Nat sis run Dundee and Scotland.

      Delete
    4. Drug control is a UK-wide reserved matter, so Dundee, and Scotland, is British with respect to that particular issue.

      You can't have your union cake and eat it.

      If it was a fully devolved issue, or Scotland was independent, then it would be 'Scottish'.

      This article is correctly titled. All cocaine is 'British' as Westminster controls it. Or rather isn't.

      https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jan/30/the-white-stuff-why-britain-cant-get-enough-cocaine

      The white stuff: why Britain can’t get enough cocaine

      Delete
    5. I'm inclined to think that some of the decline in Scotland's wellbeing in the last few years is directly related to the 2014 result. 1979 saw our life expectancy diverge from rUK. Partly that was Thatcher combined with complacent Labour councillors in Glasgow especially who did nothing to fight off the punishment, but part of it was also the crushing of Scotland's self-determination. I think 2014 did the same thing. It sapped our souls as a nation, empowering the worst among us and telling the most vulnerable and powerless that their hopes and dreams don't matter.

      Delete
  4. Perhaps GWC would prefer sectariansism and spitting as that's his cabal's drug of choice, as long as it's used on everybody else, and especially as a judge has today ruled that his type are *THE LOWEST OF SOCIETY* and deserving of prison so he sent a couple of them there

    Youarrapeepul though eh GWC

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ross T (ABZ Hand Man)February 14, 2020 at 9:43 PM

      Remember that time under the railway bridge? You did me for £5

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    2. I hope you washed thoroughly afterwards.

      Delete
  5. IMO we have to wait and see how support for independence holds up up in the next 4 to 5 polls. It could well be another Brexir blip as happened immediately the actual vote in 2016. Indeed NO polled within the margin previously but it was consistently above YES which
    does give it a wee bit more credibility than the current three polls all held close together. We need to see a consistent YES lead over a few months. It will be disappointing if it drops back again but we need to see. We will try be but soon enough. Watch out for dubious opinion polls suddenly showing NO back on top. If another YES lead appears the Brit Bats will panic and for sure a manipulated NO lead will magically reappear. Sure as night follows day.

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    1. While it's undeniable that a consistent >50% showing in future polls will increase confidence in reliable majority support for indy, it's likely never going to be enough to convince the fainthearts, never mind the professional antagonists on the likes of the BBC. And with no post-Brexit follow-through of any real worth, the figure could well slip in any case as all initiative is surrendered.

      It's getting too easy to forget a 52% poll in 2014 that sent the BitterTogether campaign into a panic and resulted in the notorious Vow. Nowadays a result like that has been "priced-in" by a BritNat opposition that relies increasingly in sticking its corporate head in the sand and pretending that if it just ignores the problem long enough, it will evaporate.

      Well, it may do if there isn't a serious move to have a plebiscite sometime soon. Only with an actual plebiscite in the offing will the BritNat refuseniks be forced to think again, amid a new and (for them) far more terrifying panic.

      Delete
  6. The bbc remains anti-Scottish.

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    1. My brother in law and due to travel to Dawlish on Sunday. We go every year and spend the week prancing up and down the prom hurling abuse at passers-by and pretending to be mentally ill. It can be fun to watch people's reactions as we goad them to call the emergency services. Heckling vicars at evensong can be the source of many happy memories.

      Delete
    2. Big Eater From PerthFebruary 15, 2020 at 8:35 AM

      I think your style is disgusting and confrontational. If you got in a fight with me I would really kick your @rse.

      # BreakSomething

      Delete
  7. In line with Fiona's proclamation, Brexit vote was equally "within the margin of error".

    ReplyDelete
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    1. If you can't comprehend an ultra-simple numerical comparison, it's you that is the idiot.

      Nothing new there of course for yer typical denizen of the Brexit fantasist parallel universe.

      Delete
    2. Oh, whatever happened to the dismissive posting from the logically-challenged Brexit enthusiast?

      (Still, the transient missive did at least survive longer than any Brexit benefit.)

      Delete
  8. Meanwhile over on Wings over Scotland Stuart Campbell has his cabal of haters abusing everyone and anyone who supports the SNP and or Nicola Sturgeon, Oh he says he wants Independence, he says he hates the Unionists, he says they're all liars, but he also says the SNP are liars too, so who does Stuart Campbell actually advocate from his great Dominic Cummingseque brain, well it's nobody he just wants you to hate everybody

    Makes you wonder who's paying him for this crap

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    Replies
    1. So you are saying the Nat sis never lie? Go on make this a first.

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    2. Can you explain what you mean by 'sis'?

      You've used this for years and I don't you why you mention 'sisters'.

      Delete
    3. Aw ra wee wean Stewarty requires care. Try an 0800 number ya Jock wimp. It's nae wonder Jocko land is not independent with wimps like you trying to wag the London tail.

      Delete
    4. Everyone across the world knows that it's England which is the chickenshit wimp freeloader country too scared to let go of Scotland's coat tails, hence no Section 30.

      Delete
    5. There was a guy from San Marino in the pub the other night mocking the English for being so fucking terrified of standing on their own two feet.

      And he's right to. San Marino is brave enough for indy, but England isn't lol. Pathetic, weak nation these days is England.

      Delete
  9. It would be easy to hate the Nat sis, they are more to be pitied than scolded.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Accept when it's Leopold doing it.

      Delete
  10. It's a good shout, calling out Bruce, as the way she deliberatley desperately tried to make that point as if she really really cared that it couldn't really be true. The usual double standards, let any Unionist say "there's not appetitie for another referendum" unchallenged but challenge three actual positive polls.

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  11. Putting the three polls together for an average of 51%, the margin of error is 2%. To get a less than 1% MoE it'd need a sample size in total of 10,000 or more. That's putting samples together rather than one clear very large sample. All at the 95% confidence level of course, something Bruce would have no confidence in talking about! On some kind of a normal distribution, she'd be well skewed :-)

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  12. There should be a flush button for GWC

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  13. I was recently travelling from Menton to Pisa in convivial company as our train approached the charming Ligurian town of San Remo. One of my companions enquired with solicitude whether one intended to assist at the San Remo Jazz Festival. I trust that my upbringing and innate formality prevented the horror and outrage which I felt from being expressed facially.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You sound like a f*ckin nob.

      Delete
    2. Roddy Collarless-ShirtFebruary 17, 2020 at 10:57 AM

      I fear that you are not a man of refined sensibilities,

      Delete
  14. Looks like the Nat sis have returned to their toilet banter. They have nothing left especially since leaving the EU and no one to grovel too. With not even another referendum in sight they could all move to Dundee and share needles with their fellow Scots they have abandoned.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. UK is still in the EU and subject to all EU law.

      It just doesn't get a say on those laws now.

      Delete
    2. That was the agreement. Nat sis do not like agreements or results of referendums.

      Delete
    3. Why do you keep saying 'sisters'?

      I've been trying to work out what this means for ages.

      Delete
    4. As it stands, the only vote result which hasn't been respected is the 2016 election where Scots requested iref2 in the event of brexit, but the chickenshit waster freeloading cowardly English are too scared to stand on their own two feet, so won't agree to a Section 30.

      Delete
    5. As it stands, the only vote result which hasn't been respected is the 2016 election where Scots requested iref2 in the event of brexit, but the chickenshit, ditherling cowardly SNP leadershiip/Scot Gov are too scared to stand on their own two feet, so won't agree to holding a referendum which is in their powers.

      Delete
    6. Why do you need to lie? Is the truth something you just are unable to say, ever? No wonder a majority now back indy. Folk just don't like liars.

      We've only just had a Section 30 refusal. It might yet turn out that the SNP are chickenshit and just accept that, doing nothing about it at all. However, given all the legislation for iref2 continues to go though Holyrood, we can't conclude that yet.

      So, Scotland may have a few chickenshit politicians, but it's people are brave and support indy, unlike England which is a chickenshit waster of a nation where almost all of it's MPs are cowards with the backing of majority of cowardly voters.

      This is why the world (e.g. Tusk) is mocking England's pathetic cowardice while acknowledging Scotland as a brave, friendly nation.

      Delete
    7. Given Scotland is just 5m and England is 10x the size, Scots, and the world, will continue to see England as a pathetic, weak, feeble, freeloading waster nation bullying Scotland until England respects election results in Scotland and does not try to block an indyref.

      There is no way to hide England's bullying cowardice. It's a fucking embarrassment, which is why my posts pointing it out are hated so much.

      Delete
    8. The English should remember this:

      First they came for the Scots, overturning election results there, but I didn't speak out because I was not a Scot...

      Johnson is concentrating power in his own hands. Watch out for the judicial review where he tries to take away the power the courts have to block him. As night follows day, dictatorships begin with elections being overruled and the courts being neutered. If Johnson has managed to get away with overturning votes in Scotland, he'll look to do the same with England, all in the name of 'the people' and protecting Britain from its 'enemies within', such as the Scots.

      Delete
    9. In "Time's Arrow" by Martin Amis things have gone into reverse and people get their food from the toilet. One can imagine something similar if GWC tried to write a "history of ideas".

      Delete
    10. Erm the legislation has passed and got Royal Consent, so its law, the Scot Gov can hold a referendum on anything as long as its not a reserved matter. All they need to do is pass the secondary legislation in the Scot Parliament and the indy ref happens. Hence i am correct in saying that the Scot Gov /SNP is chickenshit in blocking a second ref as it was elected to do so.

      The fact the only high profile person you can find mocking England is a former politiican with no influence or powers shows that the world does not give a shit either way if Scotland becomes independent or not. They have far more important things to worry about.

      I think its brilliant though, nationalists are far more bothered in blaming other countries for not having a indyref / scouring the internet for 'UK/England' bad stories rather than actually putting pressure on the SNP. If you did that they might feel pressured into holding one at the risk of getting kicked out of office if they did not.

      So glad im not a SNP voter/nationalist, must be embarrassing to be told each election that a vote for the SNP is a vote for independence only to see that never happen. Lied to election after election after election.

      Delete
    11. @ Scottish skier.

      GWC keeps saying sisters cause relationships are a wee bit complicated up his close in maryhill.

      Wan day , a met him walkin hame , and he invited me up tae his flat and said tae me come oan up and meet ma maw , ma sister and the wife.

      When a went in the flat , there wis only wan wummin staunin there.

      Delete
    12. The man who knows what he's talking aboutFebruary 15, 2020 at 2:43 PM

      "Royal Consent"

      Delete
    13. So f'n what if it turns out some SNP politicians are chickens. I'm hardly bothered by that. Why on earth would I be, they're just individuals. I'll just vote for ones with balls, as will others, and so any weeds will be thinned out. No shortage of brave folks in Scotland, which in majority backs indy.

      That's quite different to England, which in majority is a chickenshit, pathetic, weak nation which is too scared to stand on its own two feet.

      Everyone I know is mocking England. I work in an international industry and they're all laughing at England's pathetic weakness.

      Imagine saying to the world that you just can't live without wee Scotland propping you up, and running away with yer democratic baw when Scots say they don't love you any more / you lose yet another election. Totally pathetic. England is shamed, miserable nation worthy of no respect for its feebleness over this.

      Countries across the world know England is a pushover. If its terrified of teeny wee powerless Scotland, and had already handed over N. Ireland without a fight, it's going to buckle over every concession in trade negotiations. A total pushover.

      I see Australia are now berating pathetic England over China and 5G, adding to the mocking the USA has handed out.

      Delete
    14. Funny i work in a international business and nobody does. Obviously they thought that Brexit was a mistake but nobody mocks England, its happened now to need to move on. I was in Germany last week, no mocking again, much more important things to discus. Obviously the Coronavirus was one of the main items, disusing the impacts both in the short term and long term in both health and economic terms.

      The of course there is the upcomming elections in the USA, who is likely to become the Democratic nominee and the chance of them beating Trump. Early days on that still but of course the result in that election will have an impact in many areas. THen there was Irelands election, then just general economic discussion leading on from the Q4 GDP results.

      You obviously just spend your days trawling the net for England bad stories and then looking for people to agree with you.

      Delete
    15. Well, maybe with your views they were just being polite.

      I've been there also recently, and it's a mixture of disbelief at the arrant stupidity and - yes - mockery at the same.

      Of course, they are moving on now, because your lone little England-as-UK is now virtually irrelevant to anyone who actually matters.

      Delete
    16. Personal views don't come up as they are not relevant. Running around shouting the UKs fucked and cherry picking 'UK bad' stories might get people all excited on forums, but if you went round that saying things like that in the business sector people would want evidence. How will Scotland get an indy ref with the UK Gov saying no and the Scot Gov seemingly unwilling to hold a constitutional referendum?

      All well and good saying that the weeds will get thinned out but when this going to happen, how is it going to happen?

      Need actual answers not just rhetoric.

      Delete
  15. Dear god, even tourism is bad news in Scotland.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-51488784

    Outlander tourism effect a 'double edged sword'

    Tourism at historic sites across Scotland is "booming" because of the popularity of the Outlander books and TV series. But the Outlander effect has been described as a "double edged sword"...

    ...Raoul Curtis-Machin, of the National Trust for Scotland, said: "This has taken its toll on the grass and gravel footpaths."

    Last year, the Fraser Stone, a "hotspot" for Outlander fans at Culloden was cordoned off because the ground around it became muddy and slippery due to the numbers of people visiting it.


    'Muddy footpaths', Oh the humanity of it all.

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    Replies
    1. "Raoul Curtis-Martin, of the National Trust for Scotland..."

      The British Nationalist Trust for Scotland.

      Nuff said. :)

      Delete
  16. Stopped watching Question time as it became a fraud. Bruce is biased. Plants in the audience. Rigged audience make up.

    BBC have no shame.

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    Replies
    1. It's not the fault of the BBC that the Nat sis only offer vegetables on the show.

      Delete
    2. GWC just offers crudit(i)es.

      Delete
    3. @GWC

      Whit you talkin aboot vegetables fur? Youv never seen a vegetable in yer whole life ya manky muppet.Can a cola and a roll up fur breakfast every day.

      Yev no even goat an inside toilet yet.

      Delete
  17. James please, please include this question in your next poll:

    In the next Scottish Independence referendum, what do YOU think will be the result REGARDLESS of how YOU vote?

    Scotland votes Yes

    Or

    Scotland votes No

    ReplyDelete
  18. After beginning to overturn elections, Johnson is going to go after the courts to prevent these protecting the populace from him by legal means. That's the purpose of the judicial review he's starting, at the same time as he concentrates as much power as possible in his own hands (hence Javid got forced out).

    The silver lining here is that the Scots Courts are unlikely to take any such interference lightly and will fight to preserve Scottish (legal) independence from English totalitarian attack.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This should have alarm bells ringing / send shivers down your spine. Unelected puppet-master going after those that would curb his power.

      https://www.ft.com/content/6ac426a6-4f55-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5

      Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s chief adviser, is said by officials to be particularly exercised about the role of judges and courts. “Dom [Mr Cummings] wants to get the judges sorted and he’s naturally asked Michael to sort it out. He is trusted to do it,” said one government insider.

      Delete
    2. Something akin to Hitler abusing S48 of the Weimar Constitution in 1933.

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    3. Those kinds of words have not been uttered in Europe since the 1930s. The really scary thing is that the British media seem to be completely compliant by ther silence.

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  19. Once the judges are "sorted", attention will then focus on the Scottish parliament. I hope the SNP can see this coming.

    Everyne else can. Ye've been warned.

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  20. Dominic Cummings is going after control of the treasury the most powerful department in Whitehall, if he gets that, if, then they'll go after the military

    Identical to 1930s Germany

    The press are treating this with extremely nervous mirth at the moment, they won't when their turn comes, but like in Germany they might wait too long, Cummings is a Nazi and they know it and they know Herr Johnson could easily fall for this power grab method as long as he thinks it'll make him powerful, which is all he wants, but Cummings is after something else

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  21. Absolutely no country in the world thinks England throwing a hissy fit over tiny wee Scotland not loving it any more marks the former out as a brave nation with a strong, courageous government. Quite the opposite.

    If you are a country of 55 million terrified of life without a teeny wee one of 5 million so much that you are bullying it and overturning elections there because you keep losing them, the world will see you for the pathetic, weak, feeble nation you are.

    Today's news about Australia berating England over Chinese 5G shows how little respect England now holds in the world.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51513886

    Huawei row: Australian MPs cancel UK trip amid tensions over leak

    This comes after the USA was apoplectic with the UK over the same issue and only too happy to make that known.

    There's no subtleties anymore for weak England. How can you respect a country too scared to stand on it's own two feet and overruling democracy in little nations by throwing its lazy assed weight around?

    If England had handed over a Section 30 without question as per ahead of 2014, it would have respect. Imagine having 'limp wristed liberals' Cameron and Clegg as brave, democratic statesman by comparison with you. Johnson, and England, are global laughing stocks right now.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. French guy at work actually said to me 'So, it's true, les Anglais are weak, pathetic bullies just like in Braveheart!'.

      Delete
    2. You could tell him if the pre WW2 frog mobilisation had worked and the frog's had stood and fought the Brits would not have had to evacuate so many of them from Dunkirk. De Gaulle was a prick and colonialist. Merci

      Delete
    3. @ GWC Aye ok uncle albert.

      Durin the war durin the war yawn yawn yawn.

      next ye will be singing two world wars and one world cup tae us all.

      Delete
    4. It's your hero, BooJoo, who is the real coward. Hides in a fridge and dodges an election that he knows will see him off. And useless dross like you with it. You are such a such a wonderful recruiter for independence, you foul-mouthed English fool.

      Delete
    5. Little did the 51st Highland division know that as they bravely fought on with the French, giving the English time to escape, in return, the latter would take away the vote from their grandchildren and try to subjugate their country.

      It's a fucking disgrace.

      Brexit England shames all those brave Englishmen that fought alongside the Scots, and the other allies, to free Europe from the Nazis.

      Delete
    6. Angela Waffen SS Gay Camp GuardFebruary 15, 2020 at 8:35 PM

      You Scottish fought on the wrong side and defeated our glorious Reich. We forgive you and are happy you want to be a small insignificant state in our new Reich.

      Delete
    7. @ angela waffen ss

      The trouble with those bloody scots angela is they just dont want to be english......all except GWC of course.

      Delete
    8. Most Scots are products of historical good English sperm and are hard working. The other lot do not know who is their father is and live in Dundee.

      Delete
  22. @ Anonymous

    LMFAO ! . I thought you wrote "hides in a fridge and dodges an erection!"

    Ususal saturday afternoon in GWC`s flat .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Young Tiny Cumbie Rule OKFebruary 15, 2020 at 4:34 PM

      You Wine Alley Govan Team were shite begs.

      Delete
  23. There is absolutely no hiding from the fact that no Section 30 is the bullying action of a cowardly England.

    All that stuff about the battle of Britain, storming the beaches of Normandy, standing alone against the Nazis...

    It's all shit now. All flushed down the toilet in the face of being so scared shitless of standing on your own two feet you are prepared to threaten and bully a little country 1/10th your size which once thought it was your friend.

    Fucking grow one brexit England you pathetic little cowardly shit of a country, and respect Scotland's people and democracy. You shame brave, decent English folks today, and those that did have the guts to storm the beaches of Normandy. They fought to free countries, not to subjugate them like Hitler did.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Major Rant is a rank in the French Army.

      Delete
    2. @GWC. Yeev been takin it tight aw day hen , now the French are givin it tight tae ye.

      luk at the state of ye.

      Delete
  24. They don't seem to have geographical breakdowns, but SNP up to 6% UK-wide in the latest opinion poll, which implies min 60%+ in Scotland.

    I can't remember the last time I saw a 6%. It just doesn't happen, not unless the underlying level is well into the 50's in Scotland.

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    1. Opinium Poll that is.

      https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-february-2020-2/

      Delete
    2. It's a bigger sample of 2k also.

      Anyway, merci beaucoup Boris!

      Delete
    3. @ scottish skier

      Thanks fur that poll , 35% think scotland will have left the uk within the next decade , and large tory lead still holding over labour.

      Based on what im seeing on the labour ledership race, and the polls, a cannae see labour being near power for a long time.

      Delete
    4. Brigton Young Billy BoysFebruary 15, 2020 at 10:11 PM

      The Tories have around fifteen years more in power at least so the Union is intact. The calmac ferries will still be on the slipway.

      Delete
    5. As the bonbon goes boomboom

      Delete
  25. This year trade talks between the EU and England will include huge difficulties over Scottish produce and assets, the protections the EU forced on England to give up Northern Ireland will be applied again but this time in favour of Scotland

    The nazi party in England known as the Tories will be forced to make a choice, no deal or Scotland deal, Herr Johnson will choose no deal thus beaking the act of Union once again and Scotland will vote overwhelmingly in favour of Independence in a referendum supported and backed in recognition as an Independent state by the EU and the UN and England will have nothing to sell because all borders will return to there Internationally recognised origins meaning the maritime border that was moved from Berwick on Tweed to Arbroath returns to Berwick resulting in zero oil and gas for England and the return of Scotland fishing waters which are the largest coastline fisheries in Europe

    What's left of England's financial services will flee to the EU and London will be bankrupt overnight as the £ tumbles to around $0.80cents American and Scotland will be the new place to invest as it will start life Independently with a surplus

    Do people really believe Nicola Sturgeon has had so many meetings and talks backwards and forwards to the EU America Norway Denmark and others for coffee and sticky buns

    These are the predictions of world renowned financier billionaire and bloomberg expert Jim Rogers

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    1. In 2016. This kind of hilights what I was saying yesterdy. Back in 2016 people thought that Brexit might rapidly lead to a second indy ref. It didn't and nobody is pricing in a second indyref in 2020 late 2021 is the earliest expected date and even thats a push.

      As I said trawling the internet and pulling out UK bad stories might be fine on forums but not how things work in the real world. If you had gone short on 80p to the $ in 2016 you would of lost money. If you had gone short on £ euro parity every time i've seen it predicted on a forum you would of lost money.

      Jim Rogers is a sucessful investor, but that does not mean he gets everything right, every trader looses money at some point, the difference between the successful ones and the unsuccessful ones is that they make more money on the successful trades than they do on the unsuccessful ones.

      Delete
    2. "you would of"? Your logic is as wonky as your grammar.

      Typical BritNat ignoramus, pathetically lusting after a long-lost Empire that's never coming back.

      Delete
  26. Sounds credible to me.
    Sturgeon is playing a canny game.
    Johnson and his delusional cabal are leading ENGLANDUK to hell in a handcart, demanding the rest of the world 'falls into line' with their grand plan to play the British Empire2
    card.
    It's already falling apart. Javid will have none of it.
    Meanwhile Scottish Unionists cannot see beyond London rule.
    Whilst among the people the resolve to be ruled from London is crumbling.
    When the end comes it will be swift.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Johnson was a fool to not grant a Section 30. He's handed the SNP a perpetual Yes vote generating machine and has given them some time to watch the votes roll in while they continue to lay the groundwork for iref2 at a time of their choosing.

      Polls currently showing 58% MSPs for pro-indy parties for 2021 while Yes is in majority and steadily creeping up. This comes on the back of an SNP 2019 landslide with the Tories having lost half their seats.

      Not only that, but by saying he's block iref2, Johnson has completely wiped out the main reason for voting Tory in Scotland in 2021. Unionists can now vote Labour or SNP rather than Tory on the indy issue. The core Tory vote is only actually 15% or so; the recent rest came from unionists / leavers, who have no reason to vote Tory now thanks to Boris.

      Delete
    2. Seems to me Dominic Cummings might have a handle on the English vote, but he's less than useless when it comes to advising on the Scots/Welsh/N. Irish. Quite the contrast to Cameron, Clegg and advisers who understood that granting an early Section 30 would collapse the Yes vote and in all probability mean a solid No win. They were right. Yes spent 2 years just gaining back the support level it had initially post 2011, but lost due to the section 30.

      If you want Scots to think indy is a bad idea and maybe they are propped up by England, you hand over a section 30 quickly and say 'Well off you go then jocks'. If you want to confirm the subsidy is the other way around, you refuse one.

      Delete
  27. Given there is currently a mass exodus of workers of all skill levels out of the UK, with the exit gates crammed full, and even migrants now trying to escape the UK by hiding in lorries crossing the channel for Europe, what is the purpose of this?

    There is no 'tap' to turn off, only a rapid brain drain that desperately needs plugged.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-immigration/uk-post-brexit-rules-to-turn-off-tap-of-low-skilled-foreign-labour-idUKKBN20A007

    UK post-Brexit rules to 'turn off tap' of low-skilled foreign labour

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We need to rehabilitate and educate our own citizens for employment. The Dundonian drug using unemployed could be Berry Pickers in Blairgowrie. Life in the open and fresh air could do them good. I stayed in Perthshire during the sixties and earned a few bob berry picking. You just have to get on your bike. We should not have to rely on EU ruling classes offloading their unemployed us. Scots need to get on their bikes and appreciate you need to do a hard days work for a days pay.

      Delete
    2. "us Scots" now and "you Jocks" elsewhere. It does not compute. But then that's just par for the course for BritNatBots.

      Polls keep moving towards indy. Thanks for all your (unintentional) help.

      Delete
    3. I fail to see the point of your post GWC.

      I ask again; what is the point of spending huge amounts of cash on new immigration controls for 'economic migrants' in the face of a mass exodus of workers?

      Such mad hat policy just demonstrates the UK is unfit to survive brexit. England has already even admitted it can't 'go it alone', hence no Section 30.

      Delete
    4. I think you should concentrate on Scotland and our economy, let others concern themselves with their countries. Our main trade is with England and England is where most Scots, bugger aff tae.

      Delete
    5. I still don't understand your point. Scotland has mass, uncontrolled immigration from England, not the other way around. English make up 10% of people in Scotland, but Scots are only 1% of people in England.

      Delete
    6. 800,000 Scots live in England. Clearly Scotland is not attractive. At least you can bugger aff tae Ireland with your passport if things go tits up.

      Delete
    7. As I said, 1% of the population of England is Scots born, whereas English are 10% of Scotland. 10 times more migrants per head in Scotland.

      It's pretty obvious which is the more attractive country for migration.

      Delete
    8. Given that, historically, checks for illegal migration are not normally done on vehicles leaving the UK, this will just be the tip of the iceberg.

      https://extra.ie/2020/02/16/news/world-news/immigrants-brexit-calais-lorry-uk

      Over 30 migrants found trying to escape the UK for France amid fears of mistreatment after Brexit

      Delete
    9. Saves the taxpayer money booting them out.

      Delete
  28. UK is a total farce. First the budget is moved to March 11, causing one mother of a headache for the 3 devolved governments, then the chancellor resigns due to the incompetence of the PM and now the devolved governments don't even know whether there will be a budget in March or not.

    I can understand why pish artist waster England thinks it can't stand on its own two feet without the celtic nations stopping it from falling over.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51515480

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Such a farce that even this is happening.

      https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18238912.senior-tories-want-second-referendum-claims-former-party-spin-doctor/

      'Senior Tories want a second referendum' claims former party spin doctor

      Delete
    2. You are moaning about a budget now! You have x amount of money and you divvy it. If you get less or more you make amendments. That is why we pay the civil service their inflated salaries. Get a grip of your shealaleigh Skier.

      Delete
    3. No, there isn't any budget because the UK chancellor quit due to English government incompetence.

      Delete
    4. Who cares I am just back home from my extremist loyalist proddie local pub and no one mentioned budgies. As long as the benefits are in the bank account.

      Delete
  29. Nice to see the same faminazi horde who condemned Douglas and Bryant as abusive rapists before their bodies were even cold are rallying round the domestic abuser who killed herself rather than face justice.
    And they constantly complain when men don't speak up to support them in the great trannyfanny war.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You mean the 40 year old woman who had been convicted of no crime, and was innocent until found guilty.

      I'm assuming that if you are accused of a crime it will be ok for the details of that crime to be tattled about over social media, for you to use your job. How about I make and sell a greetings card lampooning the crime that you have been accused of committing but not found guilty off? You would be ok with that yes, you would think thats perfectly fine?

      Maybe it wouldn't bother you, or maybe the above would affect you so badly that you felt you had to take your own life.

      Delete
    2. It's rather obvious that throughout his life, anon has always had his advances rejected by the fairer sex.

      Delete
  30. Tories at Holyrood split over Independence as their new leader admits he's speaking for the minority when he says no to Independence and blames the first past the post voting system as to why there aren't more Tory MPs from Scotland yet First past the post is what his party advocates and without it they wouldn't have won in England

    I could name at least five Tory MSPs in Scotland who actually support independence, the problem is they're all in their seats because of proportional voting list system because if FPTP were in operation in Holyrood only 4 Tories would actually be there at all

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well just name them. Anyone can say anything on a blog but verifying names is another thing!

      Delete
    2. 'A vote for the Tories is a vote for the union' has always been a successful strategy. However, Johnson has removed the reason for many more centre to left to vote Tory on a mainly pro-union ticket, while at the same time telling Tory voters that they won't be allowed to vote for the union any more as he's taking their vote away from them.

      No Section 30 is fucking disaster for the Scottish Tories, and one of the reasons Ruth got out while she still could. Now we are seeing the massive split English Boris created starting to cleave them in two.

      Delete
    3. If there is one thing that English politicians always did, it was to leave defending the union in Scotland to Scottish unionists. Only a very foolish Englishman would start trying to tell the Scots what they can and can't do directly.

      No Section 30 is primarily a cowardly, chickenshit English decision, and the Scots Tories are now bum squeaking as they know it's a disaster in the making. The polls have already moved to Yes in majority with Holyrood looking to be an even bigger majority for the pro-indy parties.

      If the Tory share starts falling away too, as it likely will, so the split will occur, with the Scottish Tories breaking away from the English Tories in the same way the DUP are now no longer the N. Irish Tories.

      Everyone's like 'Ooh, Johnson is strong with his 80 majority'. No he's weak as fuck, hence no Section 30 and his chancellor bailing weeks before the budget, throwing the UK into chaos.

      Delete
    4. The weather has been chaotic, blame the Tories. Skier you do not seem to be revelling in Tory decisions.

      Delete
    5. English Johnson cost the Scots Tories over half their seats in Dec 2019 and they're now heading for another election where similar numbers could lose their jobs again thanks to him.

      Delete
    6. Only a thick as fuck, cowardly, freeloading waster of an Englishman could have come up with the no Section 30 plan.

      You can be damn sure that was not the Scots Tories idea.

      Delete
    7. Not a lot to be bothered about. Real working people get on with their lives. We still need to cut MSPs by at least a half, get rid of their flunkies and save tax payers money for public services. I suspect most political parties know there is an over abundance of politicians but will carry on regardless while they fill their pockets.

      Delete
  31. How about verifying your own name GWC if you're so proud of yourself
    I don't do it because I'm very well known what's a nobody like you got for an excuse

    ReplyDelete
  32. Herr Fuhrer Johnson has threatened to "rip the EU to shreds" if they don't give him the deal he wants
    President Macron of France said *Aye right* only in French

    Johnson and Cummings said they had no intention of honouring workers rights or trade equality with the EU

    It's all in the Express the Mail and the Sun tomorrow

    The translation of all this is that the EU has stuck two fingers up at Johnson and told him to go Fffk himself and Johnson is trying to look tough as though he prepared for it with bluff and bluster to follow, but he's had his arse felt and England is up an excremental liquid flow minus a propulsion implement

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The EU Capitalist elite love workers rights. Greeks and French Yellow Vests an example.

      Delete
    2. The Greeks elected a Tory government, again, recently.

      The French yellow vests are protesting against Macron's (centre-right) reforms. Macron was likewise freely elected by French voters.

      The other member states ('the EU') had no influence in that, so people don't understand your point.

      This contrasts the UK where you can't freely vote for the government you want, at least if you are not English.

      Delete
    3. So... Axminster carpets are closing down "due to Brexit uncertainty". Still, the workers can rest assured that the British have taken back control. Phew.

      Delete
    4. Also from Somerset, the cautionary tale of Lymeswold and what happens when the British make things up:

      "In 1979 the Milk Marketing Board began discussions with the large dairy firm Unigate that led in 1981 to the restructuring of its processing and marketing activities under the Dairy Crest brand to use surplus milk production for making other dairy products. The initiatives that followed included the launch in 1982 of Lymeswold cheese. The name was derived from public competition to name the new cheese. It was at first produced at Cannington creamery in Somerset. The cheese's creation was hailed by Peter Walker, then Agriculture Minister, who said it would improve the balance of payments by replacing imports and becoming "one of our most successful cheese exports".

      The concept of Lymeswold was created by an advertising agency, Butler Dennis & Garland, in response to a brief from the Milk Marketing Board to make use of more milk. It was conceived after a review of upcoming types, where soft blue cheese seemed to be missing from the UK's indigenous repertoire. The village of Lymeswold was created as part of the brand idea. With heavy promotion and a very successful branding exercise, initial demand for Lymeswold exceeded supply. It has been suggested that the Board then released maturing stocks before they were ready, which gave the cheese a reputation for poor quality. Certainly the initial success of the cheese did not turn into steady long-term sales. It was later subjected to strong competition from Cambozola, a German cheese, and eventually ceased production in 1992. Dairy Crest said at the time that it "could not sustain demand". John Withley, then the restaurant critic of the Daily Telegraph, welcomed the news with "unfettered joy", saying it had always been "an artificial cheese"."

      It's such a pity that Scotland is handicapped by having all these glens, straths and islands that could give their names to local products.

      Delete
    5. It's not the sort of product that I would ever have had in my larder. And Constantine can react quite badly to this type of ersatz food.

      Delete
  33. Pathetic, cowardly, chickenshit freeloading England 'totally opposed' to Scottish democracy

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51521277

    English government Scottish Branch office leader Jackson Carlaw said there should not be another vote for a generation - even if polls showed support for independence, including from Scottish conservative voters themselves...

    ReplyDelete
  34. Folk wondering who GWC is. I outed him years ago on here. This was my post.

    "Juteman August 14, 2015 at 2:55 PM

    "His real name is James McGibbon. Google 'nat sis left foot forward'.
    I have no idea if he is related to the McGibbon that stood for UKIP in Glasgow."

    Juteman.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Uncle Albert (with some Carlsberg)February 17, 2020 at 9:50 AM

      You fail to capture my real identity.

      Delete
    2. The Nat si Nazi witch hunter general tracking down Unionists for its list of victims. But a fool nevertheless. At least it is giving the Jews a wee break for now.

      Delete
    3. You know that in English and Scots, 'si' is pronounced like in 'sister' or 'stasis' right?

      This only serves to confused people as to what on earth it is you actually mean.

      Delete
    4. Speak for yourself paddy passport it is only you that claims to be confused.

      Delete
  35. Ok, now I understand what Carlaw is up to. He's 60; just needs one more stint in Holyrood and it's retirement time on a nice pension at 66.

    So, as party leader, he's sure to be No 1. spot on the Tory regional list. However, if Scots vote for indy before May 2021, then he's quite possibly screwed come that election. An English controlled Tory party has no place in an independent Scotland.

    So, back the Boris Block, and to hell with other Tory MSPs come 2021. They can lose their seats due to No Section 30 + Brexit, just like over half of Tory MPs did in Dec 2019. That's no problem for Carlaw if he can make it through himself. It's only Carlaw that matters to Carlaw.

    And the other Tories know it, hence the split developing.

    ReplyDelete
  36. An appeal to Labour party members, stop joining the SNP just because they're better than Labour then complaining they're not better enough so lets bring them down so we'll be left with the Labour party again, y'know the people we just left

    ReplyDelete
  37. Why would you want to work in cowardly, freeloading racist bully England? Christ, up to half of the UK (Scotland / N. Ireland) wants to leave the UK, so it's hardly a shock if other folks don't want to come.

    UK tech sees biggest loss of skilled workers since Brexit vote

    The fall in applications for skilled workers applying to come to the UK have hit Britain's tech industry the hardest.

    Programmer and coder applications from Europe and overseas have fallen 9% since 2016, according to figures from UK Visas and Immigration.

    Workers from outside of Europe were also less likely to apply for a visa in order to work in the technology sector.

    Applications from skilled workers outside of the EU fell by 17% to 19,700 in the years 2018/2019.

    Stuart Lisle, senior tax partner at the consultancy BDO said: "We want to see the Government prioritise the creation of a worker visa system that attracts the best talent with economically-relevant skills, that prioritises the needs of UK businesses.”

    ReplyDelete
  38. Overturning elections..taking absolute control of the chancellery...now advice on eugenics...

    It's like there's a warning from history here.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51535367

    No 10 refuses to condemn adviser's remarks

    Downing Street has refused to condemn controversial past remarks on pregnancies, eugenics and race reportedly made by a new adviser.

    Labour said Andrew Sabisky should be sacked for suggesting black people had lower average IQs than white people and compulsory contraception could prevent "creating a permanent underclass".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scottish Nat si master race appear to think the English have lower IQs.

      Delete
  39. Well, knock me down with a feather. Who'd have seen this coming eh!

    And they even knew each other, having met previous to any messaging.

    Bit weird / creepy, but that's it.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/cops-wont-charge-snp-text-21510239

    Police won't charge SNP text pest Derek Mackay over 'inappropriate' messages sent to boy

    Police Scotland has consulted the Crown Office and concluded no laws were broken by Mackay, 42, who quit his Cabinet post on February 5.

    An informed source said: “It was felt the trail of messages itself was ­inappropriate given the imbalance in power and the difference in age between the two parties.

    “The messages were not highly ­sexualised and, in any case, the boy was 16 and of age. But consideration was given as to whether the messages could have caused fear and alarm or distress.

    “Could there have been an aggravated breach of the peace or would some sort of sexual aggravation or grooming charge be justified? But all things considered, the consensus was that the threshold of criminality had not been reached.”

    The insider said the boy and Mackay had met on a previous occasion so were not complete strangers.

    It is understood they were ¬introduced by one of Mackay’s colleagues at a youth event and that Mackay later made contact on social media. It is also understood the boy at no stage made a complaint about Mackay and did not suggest anything had been criminal.

    Police became involved when the Scottish Parliament reported the matter and, as a result, they were proactive in going to the boy and asking if he would make a statement, which he did.

    It is understood that he indicated he felt the conduct of the Renfrewshire North and West MSP – who told him he was “cute” – was “weird” but had not been troubled by it and had not intended to make a complaint about him to police.

    As no similar complaints about Mackay’s behaviour have been received, it is likely he will be able to put any fear of criminal charges behind him.


    Glad I don't rely on internet creeps / perverts who read other people's private texts looking for gay sex content when it comes to such cases!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who actually bubbled on him! Was it someone within the Nat si party? Why would he resign for conduct that was not unlawful!

      Delete
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    ReplyDelete