Wednesday, February 26, 2020

It's "journalism", Jim, but not as we know it : comically amateurish Scotsman article contains multiple wild inaccuracies about the YouGov independence poll

There's still no clarity on whether yesterday's YouGov poll showed a 50/50 split on independence after Don't Knows are excluded, or whether (as some newspapers claim) it was Yes 49%, No 51%.  Neither do we yet know whether 16 and 17 year olds were interviewed for the poll.  I checked the What Scotland Thinks website, which often has access to information that isn't otherwise in the public domain, and it states that only over-18s were polled - which, if true, would cast doubt on the headline numbers and might suggest that Yes have been slightly underestimated.  But a commenter on this blog's previous thread pointed out that there is a discrepancy in the datasets between the total number of respondents and the combined total of respondents from all of the listed age groups.  The most logical explanation is that there are also respondents from an additional age group, which would obviously have to be 16 and 17 year olds.

What I can say for certain, though, is that a Scotsman article about the poll (which has been online for five days because the results on some of the supplementary questions were released early) contains a series of extraordinarily wild inaccuracies.  It's tempting to call them lies, although I suspect they're probably inadvertent blunders caused by either sloppiness or wishful thinking, or possibly by a blend of both.  The writer seems to have allowed himself to be duped by a propaganda press release, or perhaps he just didn't bother to read it carefully enough.  This is one of the offending segments -

"Half of Scots (50 per cent) blame the SNP for the divisions, according to the findings. The prospect of a second referendum is blamed by 41 per cent of respondents, while 26 per cent say everyone bears some responsibility."

Not only is that untrue, it's not even within light-years of the truth.  The YouGov datasets make abundantly clear that only respondents who said that Scotland is divided (57% of the sample) were asked the follow-up question about "blame".  That means only around 28% or 29% of Scots "blame the SNP for divisions" - not 50% as the Scotsman claim.  The prospect of a second independence referendum is actually "blamed" by around 23% of the sample - not 41% as the Scotsman claim.  And only around 15% say everyone is "responsible" - not 26% as the Scotsman claim.

Even the headline of the piece is misleading, to put it charitably.  It states: "Half of Scots believe independence and Brexit division will last generation, finds poll".  Er, nope.  It's not half of Scots, but just under half of the portion of the sample who think the country is divided.  The correct figure for the whole sample is therefore around 26%.

That's misreporting on a truly colossal scale, and there's absolutely no excuse for it.  But on past form, a correction and apology is probably extremely unlikely.

In case you're wondering about the story behind this poll, the datasets imply it was commissioned by Hanbury Strategy, which is described on Powerbase as "a Conservative-led lobbying firm set up by ex-David Cameron adviser Ameet Gill and Brexit campaigner and former British Bankers' Association director, Paul Stephenson in September 2016.  In June 2017, it hired Lizzie Loudon, former press secretary to the Prime Minister, Theresa May".  Strangely, though, when Gordon Brown fronted the release of some of the results a few days ago, it was reported as being a poll for the think-tank Our Scottish Future.  It's pretty clear that it was intended to be an anti-independence propaganda poll of some description, which might explain some of the oddities about it - the non-standard question wording, the highly unorthodox question sequence, and perhaps also the ambiguity over the headline results with Don't Knows excluded.

93 comments:

  1. James, any idea why What Scotland Thinks has decided to include this poll in its tracker despite the non-standard question?

    Every other poll going back years contains the words "Should Scotland be an Independent country"

    This one departs from that (albeit slightly) yet gets included.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Judging by their tweet, I would guess they concluded that the question wording wasn't ideal but was close enough to the standard question to justify inclusion. I'm much more worried about the fact that the independence question wasn't asked first, which can genuinely make a significant difference to the result.

      Delete
    2. Is it being paranoid to wonder if the reason they're tinkering is to get a result showing indy support just below 50%, enabling them to run with the 'indy support drops back' narrative.

      Delete
  2. I assume the Y/N Q doesn't contain any correction for likelihood to vote. If so, and including any rounding issues such as those mentioned, it could have actually showed Yes ahead. This is why the pro-UK prof C should probably not have put it in his PoP.

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  3. I was sent this particular poll and responded to it. My feeling from very early on was that it was what I think is called 'push polling' (but I stand to be corrected), in that valid choices were not available or that 'loaded' words were used in questions to frame them in a specific way, etc. I made such comments in the 'comments' section.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I too was invited to participate in this poll and have to agree "push polling" came immediately to mind while answering the questions. I too commented on this in the comments section.

      Delete
  4. Happy to set up a monthly standing order to contribute towards a fund for James to undertake regular polls.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Me too as we need to counteract this manipulative type of polling.The Brit establishment must be worried.

      Delete
    2. I'm certainly going to consider doing another poll in the future, but it's a question of getting the balance right, because I'm pretty sure that donation fatigue would set in if I tried to do it too often. And bear in mind that we won't always get the results we want - that might make donations harder to come by as time goes on as well.

      Delete
    3. How much is it to do a poll ?

      The way things are should be keeping on top of the consensus
      Monthly

      Delete
    4. I've said before and will say again. I'd be happy to set up a standing order to help fund regular polls from you at whatever interval you see fit.

      Delete
  5. Aye, the British Establishment and their media supporters are now really shitting themselves about the possibility of "losing Scotland."

    If we take the British Establishment as Celtic, it is such a pity that, right now, the SNP is playing worse than both Rangers and Aberdeen, and offering a poorer challenge to the political status quo than those two clubs are in football.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So stick with Boris Johnson then, defintely an ex sportswriters view of politics or a Wings over Bath cult member

      Delete
  6. Yougov have been conducting a couple of polls recently that I would class as push polls. Set up a negative heading and ask negative question without the option to disagree.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I think your assumption that this was intended as some kind of anti-independence poll, results - which would of course be anti-independence - to co-incide with the Newcastle (where else would you hold a conference about Scotland?) Conference, is proably bang on the money.
    And, surprise (not), it seems to show that support for independence is not going away.
    SIU and their cohorts must be getting very worried indeed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I read that Bodger Broon revealed the findings in his 'These Islands' speech in Newcastle,last week. It was the 'evidence' supporting his 'divisive' assertion.

      Delete
  8. An iffy poll, deliberately set to be as anti-independence as possible? Probably. A sign of British nationalist desperation? Definitely.

    ReplyDelete
  9. BREAKING NEWS OF THE RAPID REBUTTAL:

    Our citizens have viewed pictures of President Jamez sweating in public conference under methodological cross-examination by Gavin Barrie, Mike Smithson and Peter A Bell. But there is no health crisis over President Jamez. This is major lie spread by agents of Wings, conspirators of international Bathism.

    Now we announce that President Jamez, in an indefinite time, is in retreat to Castle Fridge redoubt in Southern Uplands. All can be assured he is at the height of his powers. He has ability to commune with nature and discern the way forward for our nation.

    Viva President Jamez – Life! Prosperity! Health!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think 'President Jamez' should use his full emergency powers to cancel the Eurovision Song Contest.

      Delete
  10. The exit agreement is an international treaty, fully enforceable in court under international law, which has provisions to preserve a UN peace agreement.

    And now England is talking about trying to get out of this just weeks after it signed up.

    England won't get a trade deal with anyone if it cannot be trusted to adhere to what it signs up to.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/eu-foresees-very-hard-talks-with-uk-on-future-ties-warns-on-irish-border-idUKKCN20J11Q

    ReplyDelete
  11. Comically amateurish Hootsman .. the Beano probably sells more copies!

    The tabloid equivalent of Rangers.. both are busted flush and living off past glories.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Beano is more intellectually rigorous, despite being a DC Thomson publication.

      Delete
  12. How does the Scotsman newspaper survive when it's bankrupt sells hardly any copies and has virtually no advertising revenue

    Who pays for the upkeep of such a right wing magazine in a country that's centre left, YES!! that is the correct answer! and you have won a brain prize

    ReplyDelete
  13. Never mind 50/50.
    When the YES army of activists get the vote out that'll be 60/40 for independence.
    Johnson should agree a S30 ASAP, before it slips away any further.
    That's if he has any sense. Oh, right!!

    ReplyDelete
  14. It's strange, the fixation on "disisiveness". It's as if it's the only positive reason they can think of to stave off an indyref (other than, fear of losing it); and staving off an indyref must be the only way they can think of to avoid losing one. So, not so strange after all.

    But it shows the weakness of the argument of the Unionists. They still act as if the UK is the settled will of the people, but it's crumbling and they must know it...

    ReplyDelete
  15. Not one country colony territory that was previously occupied by *the British* has ever wanted to come back, not one, but despite all the threats from *Britain* about ensuing poverty and trade starvation if they took their Independence Britain still trades with every single one of them and the list of reasons why is as long as your arm

    England's economy is not diverse enough and never has been, it's a country of financial services that are mobile which Brexit has just proved, and they're so used to stealing from other peoples they don't know how to diversify and it's too late for them to learn, a nation of 55 million people who can't feed themselves but they do like to keep telling people they're rich, and they are, but you're not

    Why do you think they have to stamp the image of a political flag over all Scotland's produce and call it *British*
    British or Britain isn't a country, the UK isn't a country, you don't see the EU flag plastered all over produce from Germany or France or Italy or anywhere else, but you might see the flag of their countries, it's England propaganda to the world that Britian UK is a country and that makes the English government and their offices liars, just like they've always been

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    Replies
    1. This could have been construed as anti-English prior to the section 30 refusal. However, because of that, it's now just speaking the truth.

      Delete
    2. I assume you have not returned from your weekend release. Skier would be proud of that mad rant.

      Delete
    3. Section 30 has been confined to the anus of history. Why do you fash not go on a killing bender like the IRA then sell out Scotland to the EU like they have.

      Delete
    4. That is SO precious.

      Delete
    5. "Section 30 has been confined to the anus of history."

      English translation:

      'We English are a nation of cowardly, weak, feeble, pathetic freeloaders too terrified of standing on our own two feet / actually having to work for a living, that we are bullying a much braver country 1/10th our size so we can keep being layabout wasters living off the back of its resources/taxes'.

      Delete
  16. Data available https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uus6esltpr/YouGov%20Scotland%20Results%20%E2%80%93%C2%A0Press%20Release.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  17. I've just seen an ad on telly saying we have to start talking about leaky bladders, so who wants to go first?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do not go out as much as you used to. You will just involuntary pish yer troosers. That is why Skier stays at home.

      Delete
    2. You know that you can get internet on your phone these days right?

      Delete
    3. Random Babushka From Orange SquareFebruary 27, 2020 at 8:43 AM

      GWC is my kind of guy.

      Delete
  18. Two things.

    1). It would be handy to have the percentage of the total vote that 16 to 17 year olds make up, their comparative turnout, and the resultant adjustment they would make based on an arbitrary 50-50 excluding don't knows. Then we / you can adjust any poll which doesn't include them. Perhaps similar for EU citizens.

    2). Next poll, could you ask the old SSAS question to at least find out what percentage would now want to abolish Holyrood? It used to range up to about 10% max, or as low as about 5% from memory, would be interesting to see it's current value considering the btl postings some people make on the Herald particularly, rarely on The National.

    A good reply to them would be "Interesting that you want to abolish Holyrood, it is of course your democratic right to have such an opinion, but it's only shared by X% of the voters of Scotland."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If Holyrood was abolished tomorrow it would be forgotten by Saturday. They do not pay our wages or welfare benefits. The Scottish Mps could sit for a day in Westminster and come home and work in their constituency.

      Delete
    2. 74% voted for Holyrood and 62% for Brussels, compared to just 55% for Westminster.

      Delete
  19. @GWC

    Westminster doesn't pay peoples wages, employers do that
    Westminster doesn't pay welfare benefits either, the taxpayer pays that
    So English MPs don't really have to be in Westminster at all because civil servants do the office work, not MPs

    Tory MPs only have to attend Westminster to vote now that they are a self declared dictatorship as Dominic Cummings the unelected leader of the Conservative and Unionist party makes all the policy and decisions, and Scottish taxpayers are forced to contribute to his wages

    I can come round your house and make all decisions for you and you can pay me for doing it seeing as you like that sort of arrangement

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Westminster makes company law and benefits laws. We do not need another expensive tier.

      Delete
    2. But it's the will of the people.

      74% voted for Holyrood and 62% for Brussels, compared to just 55% for Westminster.

      Delete
  20. James, if you do commission another poll in the future, can I suggest a question?

    Yesterday the BBC ran a "party political broadcast" on behalf of the "Scottish Conservative and Unionist party". I keep hearing anecdotal evidence of people on Twitter (older people mainly) who would not vote for Boris Johnson, but will vote for the Scottish conservatives because they think it's a different party.

    It would be useful to know how much of an issue this is. Because if the presentation of the Scottish Tories as a separate party does trick people into voting for them, then we can at last say "look, this is clearly the reason behind the propaganda – the purpose of this deceit is clearly political". It can be used to show them up.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. James could ask how many people voted for the Tartan Tory Scottish Nat sis thinking they were slightly to the left of the Tories.

      Delete
  21. I think it would be wise to avoid pro-brexit JD Weatherspoon pubs going forward. It will dock the pay of anyone following government advice to self-isolate over coronavirus.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51665312

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The pubs were neither pro brexit or remain. Just pubs selling bevvy and other products.

      Delete
    2. You are a pathalogical liar . Wootherspoons had a high profile Brexit stance and EVERYONE except you knows that.

      Delete
    3. In weatherspoons, along with your pro-brexit beer mat, you can have a burger with a little something straight off the plane from wuhan province. Really is typical tory brexiter thinking; £'s before lives!

      The irony is that brexit voters are more susceptible to it. Unionists too, so some might argue I should have kept my mouth shut.

      Delete
    4. Skier, seems you and Ally were frequent visitors for bevvy in Wetherspoons. And Ally knows everyone!

      Delete
  22. Tory Labour Liberal Democrat, the same party, England just hasn't sussed that yet

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And Scottish Mps have joined the gravy train.

      Delete
    2. Absolutely correct GWC the Tory 6 MPs and Labour 1 MP are indeed drinking from the trough because they have no need to be in Westminster at all as it's a dictatorship now with one man running everything Dominic Cummings who nobody from any country voted for

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    3. Sad we have only seven Mps drinking.

      Delete
  23. Why are English boats helping themselves to fish from Scottish waters while London withholds a Section 30?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because they're "British fishes"

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    2. But fishing is a fully devolved matter.

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    3. Then you need to ask the Scot Gov why they allow 'English' boats into Scottish waters.

      Delete
    4. The Scot Gov issues fishing licences for those English boats:
      https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/marine/Licensing/FVLS/11285

      They obviously have no problem with them in Scottish Waters, if they did they would not issue them.

      Glad this is all cleared up now :)

      Delete
    5. From your link:

      In Scotland, fishing vessel licences are issued by Marine Scotland, on behalf of Scottish Ministers. Scottish fishing vessel licences are issued to vessels registered in Scotland.

      The Scottish government licenses only Scottish boats.

      But let me re-phase to clarify my point... Why is England collecting taxes from the Scottish fishing industry while it refuses a Section 30?

      Also, why is England collecting oil and gas revenues from Scots waters while refusing a section 30?

      Or, simply put, why can't folk in England get of their own lazy erses, get a job, and pay their own way instead of thieving off others?

      Delete
  24. Because it can and the Scot Gov is too chickenshit to stop it happening by holding a Indyref.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My neighbour's wife bought a smile bridge for their children. They're spoiled shits and they can speak French. "Bonjiorno madamzelle," I shout "Go home voo w0gs." The father's a darkie.

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. So England is a lazy erserd, layabout nation that can't be bothered working to pay it's own way instead of thieving off others as I stated. Thanks for backing me up here.

      As for the Scottish government, it's not possible for them to be cowards, certainly not as things stand. This can't be the case when your opponent is 10 x your size / weight, rather obviously. There is no question that the massive, nuclear armed opponent with a history of horrific violence against smaller nations is the pathetic, weak, cowardly bully, while the wee guy (just like many former colonies) is the brave one, carefully weighing up the options. Folk will just think you thick as pigshit if you read them the story of david and goliath and explain to them how Scottish david is the 'chickenshit' one, and English Goliath in No. 10 the brave guy. It suggests you don't even understand the most simple things in the world, like how Scotland is 5 m and England is 55 m and nuclear armed.

      This is why the world now sees England as the coward that it is, and mocks it as nation, while empathising with Scots (like Tusk for example). I work with people from all the countries England is looking for a trade deal with, and they are all laughing at it for being a weak, feeble nation, too scared to stand on its own two feet without wee Scotland. A bully too, that can't be trusted to make deals either.

      Delete
    4. Incidentally, I've questioned a lot of English pro-brexit Tory voters recently and yes, it turns out they are lazy, benefit junkie freeloading cowards as I suspected. They said they are too scared of independence to stand on their own too feet, and that they needed Scotland's taxes to keep them afloat. Hence no Section 30.

      Delete
    5. Yup what of it? Thats all you have coming on everyday moaning. This is of course due to the party you voted for failing to deliver on its promises (hows not letting Scotland be taken out of the EU against its will comming along?)

      Could you let me know Tusks offical position. As I said before hes the nationalists Gordan Brown, an ex politician with no power.

      Were are the actual world leaders comming out to back Scotland against England. Were are the sports / film stars protesting publicly and vocally as you declared would happen...is it still too soon.

      Anyhow enjoy 2020, certainly no indyref to look forward to but you can moan about England constantly which you seem to enjoy :)

      Delete
    6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    7. It's not really enjoyment. It's just describing the situation as things stand from the perceptive of other countries and how they view Scotland/England (I'm a dual Irish national in a French + Scots + Irish family, so can speak from a third party perspective).

      If I was a coward, I wouldn't be comfortable with it in the way you seem to be / England is. Does it just come naturally to you / England? You've become used to it through life?

      Delete
    8. And note I don't as a rule mock cowards; they're simply weak, sad little people. It's just if they're also lazy waster bullies that pick on others, that I'll join in with the world and do this.

      The latter is England right now. It's comical all this bluster about independence when it's too scared to stand on its own two feet.

      Delete
    9. I've learnt not to blame other people/contries when there is a solution that circumvents the problem. Clearly all this can be stopped by the Scot Gov holding a referendum. You seem to want to blame the UK Gov rather than putting pressure on your own Government (& the party you voted for).

      This is the problem with nationalists they always blame someone else. Is this something that comes naturally to you?

      Delete
    10. How is Britain another country? You really are delusional. One minute Westminster is Scotland's government, Scotland must accept brexit as it was a 'country-wide vote' etc, then the next minute it's 'another country' we Scots are blaming.

      Westminster politicians only become 'someone else' if Scotland votes for independence you complete fuckwit.

      It does show your deep anti-Scottish racism though; something inherent to England/Britain. English folks are allowed to complain about Westminster policies which apply to them, but when Scots do it, they are 'just blaming someone else'. It could not be more racist.

      Delete
    11. The Mail:
      "Coronavirus sweeps into every corner of Britain:
      Wales gets its first case and two travellers who returned from Iran are hospitalised in London as UK confirms six cases in 24 hours "

      So Britain stops round about Newcastle. Yee-haa!

      Delete
    12. UK = England.

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

      Coronavirus: How is the UK planning for an outbreak?

      Which describes at length England's preparations, before the final paragraph says...

      ..."Northern Ireland and Scotland have their own arrangements, although they do liaise closely with [the UK] England."

      Delete
    13. Big Eater From PerthFebruary 28, 2020 at 1:20 PM

      I scoffed three mechanically-recovered Chinese wolfpup burgers for lunch and I'm feeling a bit queasy.
      Can anyone give me a prognosis?

      Delete
    14. How is Britain another country?

      You never mention Britian in your little rants, its always England (your rant yesterday, for example was aimed at English, not British, fishermen.)

      As I said nationalist always blame other countries (England in your case).

      Delete
    15. Most British MPs are English. Over 80% of them. England can't wish to dominate in the British parliament, making decisions for other other nations, then ask the other nations blame themselves when they're unhappy with Westminster governance.

      And I'm not actually blaming England for anything in terms of iref2, just pointing out that it is a pathetic, bullying, chickenshit, lazy, cowardly, weak, freeloading waster of a nation, hence no Section 30.

      I'm simply stating what England is. That's all.

      Delete
    16. Of course when nationions have decide they have had enough of Westminster rule, they have left its control. You repeatedly have reminded of this (the demise of the Empire) none of them got a 'section 30', they had to fight to get away from Westminster.

      Ties in win no world leaders standing up for Scotland publically against England. Many of them will be looking at what their countries had to do to get away from Westminster and then see the Scot Gov simply do nothing (although they have the power to do so) and probably see them as weak and cowardly; they want want to be associated with a Scot Gov that folds like that.

      I'm sure the politicians in Spanish jails would of given their back teeth to have the powers the Scot Gov has to hold a referendum.

      I'm not blaming the Scot Gov for anything in terms of iref2, just pointing out that Boris said no and they ran away and have done nothing, some i'm sure are saying they are cowards.

      Also despite the senior members of the Scot Gov/SNP being lifelong supporters of independence, they choose not to use their powers to achieve that aim. One can only assume from that they are either too lazy to arrange and hold the ref, too chickenshit to hold one, or don't want Scotland to stand on its own too feet and just want to keep freeloading from the UK; hence no referendum.

      Delete
  25. I see New Caledonia is having another iref this year, after holding one in 2018. Another is planned for 2022 if the 2020 one doesn't deliver a Yes vote. They also had indy votes in 1958 and 1987, with related constitutional referenda in 1988 and 1998.

    Seems French people are brave and happy enough to stand on their own two feet, ergo nae bother with 'Section 30's' for New Caledonia. This contrasts cowardly England/Britain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Keep up with the good work!! Much appreciated posts.

      Delete
    2. We Unionists know that there is more than one Nat si nutter in Scotland.

      Delete
  26. Roooooole Britannia!
    Britannia rooooles the waves
    Britons never, never, never shall beeeeeee slaves.
    Roooooooole Britannia!
    Britannia rooooooles the waves.
    Britons never, never, never shall be slaves.

    Donald!

    ReplyDelete
  27. If you think its fun being incarcerated in lovely surroundings like Tahiti, think again. It can be he'll.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There's plenty of room at the Hotel Polynesia.

      Delete
  28. The UK's screwed.

    Chancellor and senior civil servants all quitting just weeks in.

    What did people expect from some mad hat populist dictatorship run by a racist oddball misfit and a buffoon?

    We are just at the beginning of 'Great British constitutional & economic crisis' that everyone warned about.

    N. Ireland and Scotland and 50/50 Yes/No is just the starting point.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51687287

    Home Office boss quits over 'campaign against him'

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Aye?

      Ah'm dodgin away.

      Delete
    2. Is that a self description at 3 above! Just staring out the window towards Clifford's Tower watching the world go by. Lots of English down here

      Delete
    3. Remember the 9th Legion.

      108 AD (CE) , ya bass.

      Delete
    4. Skier is a member of the Legion of Mary.

      Delete
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