Sunday, January 26, 2020

Mid-Galloway and Wigtown West by-election

No polls overnight as far as I can see, but I realised I had completely overlooked the first Scottish local by-election to be held since the general election.

Mid-Galloway and Wigtown West by-election:

Conservatives 61.8% (+22.3) 
SNP 25.5% (+1.9) 
Greens 6.4% (+4.2) 
Labour 6.3% (-0.6)

At first glance that looks like an absolutely terrifying result, but it makes much more sense once you realise that independent candidates took 28% of the vote in the ward last time around, and those votes had to go somewhere because there weren't any independents standing this time.  In Dumfries and Galloway, people who vote for independent candidates are often Tory voters in other circumstances, so that will account for most or all of the huge boost in the Tory vote.

A 2% increase in the SNP vote can at best be described as "OK", given that the change is measured from 2017, when the SNP were doing significantly less well than at last month's general election.  But perhaps they were hampered in this by-election by the modest success of the Greens.

The result is an indication that the Tory honeymoon effect isn't necessarily stopping at the border, and given the reach of the London media in Scotland, we shouldn't really have expected it to.  It may seem ironic in the wake of the Scottish Tories losing half their seats, but it's quite possible that the next Scottish poll will see an increase in the Tory vote - although if that does happen I would expect it to be largely at the expense of other unionist parties.

131 comments:

  1. Galloway is becoming a retirement dormitory for folks from Lancashire, young locals head for Glasgow at the first opportunity: this, coupled with the self interest of the farming and landowning groups gives rise to election results like this.

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  2. I live in West Galloway and sense a strong Tory support in our area. It was so disappointing when Alister Jack was re-elected although with a narrower majority. It is a depressed area with low wages and high unemployment. Closed shops and crumbling buildings. Yet the Tory support stays high - totally inexplicable. A lot of convincing still to be done down here.

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    1. Totally agree John. I'm originally from this neck of the woods (but not this ward exactly), and as an individual I don't know what the strategy for winning these people round.

      That said, when the campaign comes this is *exactly* where I will be out on the doorstep. A clear lesson from results night in 2014 was there needs to be an effective ground war in every part of the country and we can't just rely on the larger centres of population.

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  3. Ok so an independent Tory not standing, and part of that vote is lost to the SNP and greens, ergo Tories down, and substantially, even when a low turnout favours them. Aye, that's how I read this when I first saw it James; just as you describe. 6% odd swing to pro-indy parties where the Tories should be doing well.

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    1. Our most reliable recent indy poll was 50% Yes (MORI, who were closest when it came to the GE, with SNP only underestimated by 1%).

      A 6% swing to Yes parties on that could be quite impressive!

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  4. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51249204

    Brexit 'to have negative impact' on most vulnerable in Scotland

    Brexit is highly likely to negatively impact the most vulnerable people in Scotland, a new report has found.

    The independent report, commissioned by the Scottish government, identified 137 potential impacts on those already facing inequality, discrimination, or social exclusion.

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    1. Be interesting to see if the Scot Gov uses its powers on Wednesday to start the process of an indy ref potentially leading to a Indy Scotland which would be protected from Brexit, or instead decides to do nothing subjecting the vulnerable to the effects of Brexit as you highlight.

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    2. Everyone I've spoken to, particularly soft nos, are now wondering how much damage England is prepared to try to do Scotland and its people if the SNP attempt simply to let people vote. They thought England was a friend, but now understand it's an enemy and a vindictive bully, so fully sympathise with the difficultly the SNP and all Scots may face going forward.

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    3. Even some unionist friends from N. Ireland said to me 'We are now on the same side SS! Stormont just voted against London rule, unionist and republican alike. Shoulder to shoulder!'.

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    4. And do you really think Scottish people. I repeat that, Scottish people are going to blame their own Scottish government, and not Boris's racist anti-Scottish 'No Section 30 you jock scum' English government for any difficulties / delays to iref2?

      Are you seriously that deranged? Has the uk collapsing around you driven you over the edge?

      There might be a few angry hard nats on here who'll demand Sturgeon hold an iref tomorrow no matter what or they'll vote for Stuart Campbell, but they don't relect mainstream Scots. And by that I mean those who see themselves first as foremost as Scottish. You know, the 74% odd that voted for holyrood in the first place.

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    5. THe non racist ones will of course. Racists will of course just blame another country as is their way.

      Your the delusional one, you keep voting for a party that keeps promising you an indy ref and then never delivers on its promise despite having the power to do so.

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    6. This for example

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51254678

      The SNP's Westminster leader has branded Nicola Sturgeon "a democracy denier" for refusing to allow a second Scottish independence referendum.

      61% of the Scottish electorate think that the Scot Parliament be the one deciding if there should be a second indy ref. By all avvounts despite having the power to do so looks like the SNP is going to block the Scottish Parliament from holding a vote on the subject of holding one denying the Scottish people democracy.

      Its brilliant, all these years blaming the UK for everything and its the party that you voted for that's going to fuck you over.

      Its not even the end of January and the dream of #indyref2020 looks to be over.

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    7. Which country is currently trying to stop Scots freely voting, backing this up with threats to outlaw referendums and make life difficult for an indy Scotland internationally if it doesn't comply?

      That is what the electorate sees, because that is what the actual case is. England is threatening Scots. It is no longer a friend.

      There is no f*n question at all that I would have voted Leave in an instant if the EU27 had attempted with brexit what England trying now. I would have gone from a pretty committed EU voter to a solid leaver overnight. That is what Johnson will do in Scotland if he persists with this.

      And you know it don't you. Just imagine Junker had sent a Johnson type letter to Cameron saying 'Hi David, but sorry, we say no! Not for a generation, and will will block it in court'. You know fine well the anger that would have created. Well, that's what Johnson is doing to Scots. The man's a f'in idiot. But what choice does he have now he can't hold the union together democratically. There's just not the votes.

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    8. Just imagine Cameron having won in 2016 on the promise of delivering a EU Ref and despite having the power to do so and promising to do so in an Election if he got a majority he failed to deliver. How do you think the people who voted for him would of reacted. They would not be blaming the EU it would be him they turned on.

      Thats the world the SNP are going to be in, I know you desperately want people to continue blaming England but that boat has gone. Anyhow we both have our views, no point discussing it further, we can see what happens.

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    9. If Cameron had failed to deliver the EU ref immediately because the EU tried to make the referendum illegal, he'd have done very well popularity-wise if he'd fought back against that, calmly and sensibly. Support for the Tories and Leave would have surged to epic proportions.

      If, instead, the EU had put him on the back foot by immediately granting a section 30, and he then he'd tried to delay the whole thing himself / get a remain vote because he didn't want brexit, he'd have not lasted long. At the same time though, the final result would have been narrow. Which, I believe, is what actually happened.

      I'm not blaming England. England is breaking the union. I want that. If you are a unionist, they are your enemy; ask NI unionists who have said this openly.

      Our first polls have a landslide support for Holyrood being the parliament to decide indy. The numbers backing that already would yield an unquestionably solid turnout (60%, even if everyone one opposed didn't turn out, and as soon as it's above 50% turnout, the result really does 'represent the views of the majority').

      The first polls are an utter disaster for the union. Scots are massively opposed to Johnson's move / are only just realising England is actually Scotland's enemy now. Once the shock / betrayal wears off, it will grow to burning anger. Scots are humans; this is the natural reaction. The same has happened the world over countless times.

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    10. And lets just say indy supporters got so angry at the SNP for dilly dallying a decent proportion didn't vote SNP, but for say the SCIP in 2021. Result? Holyrood majority for pro-indy parties. It's f'n PR, votes don't get spilt. Loads of Yes voters voted Green last time and all that did was mean a Yes majority, but SNP+Green. A SCIP party would just see the same.

      In fact a pro-indy party split could get even worse for unionists if SCIP did well on the list; it could have the fabled 'wings' effect and result in an epic landslide for Yes parties, utterly destroying unionism.

      Sorry, but vote splitting doesn't work under PR. Unionist need to win back votes for unionist parties. It's the only way of getting seats back under PR.

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    11. We will see, the next Scottish election is well over a year away, lets see what polling shows then.

      But I note you are already talking about 2021. Must be a very familiar pattern, Indy just keeps getting pushed back and back and back. 8 weeks ago it was #Indy2020 that's dead already now its Indy2021....

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  5. Saw this on twitter:

    New Poll: Which parliament should ultimately decide on the holding of a future Scottish independence referendum?
    •Holyrood: 61%
    •Westminster: 39% Poll by
    @Survation
    for
    @progressscot
    20-22 Jan 2020. Sample: 1019.

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    1. The ~6/10 Yes mark is readily achievable. It reflects many numbers, from the 'Scottish only' group in the census, to the % that voted Yes-Yes in 1997, to the numbers that say Yes in the event of a brexit (notably a hard one), to the 2016 result.

      Consistently, it is also the % level that always says the independence issue is for Holyrood alone. Not for Westminster, not even jointly with Holyrood, but for Holyrood alone.

      If the Scottish government do pursue a non-Section 30 referendum, as long as it's ok by the Scots courts, the people will back it and turnout will approach GE levels, even with some unionist boycotting. It will stand with a very solid turnout. There are not enough hardcore brit boycotters.

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    2. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Bring Your Own Coprophagia BucketJanuary 26, 2020 at 3:24 PM

      Thanks for this, Marcia.

      The timing of this poll, plus Angus Robertson's previous comments, suggest that on Wednesday NS will indeed say the plan is to secure another mandate at the Holyrood 2021 election.

      This will only be satisfactory if we're promised that before now and that election, an actual DAY is named for the indyref. 'Give us a mandate in the Holyrood election for an indyref at some unknown point in the future' won't cut it for many (most?) Yessers. (Though that would still leave us with the problem of Nicola daftly having referred to a referendum without an S30 as merely a 'gesture').

      ---------------------
      AnonymousJanuary 26, 2020 at 2:24 PM
      >Totally agree John. I'm originally from this neck of the woods (but not this ward exactly), and as an individual I don't know what the strategy for winning these people round.

      They won't be immune from a Brexit economic collapse or total bedlam if we end the year with No Deal. At that point Yes will draw support everywhere from current No/Remainers who'll change their mind about indy, and also current No/Leavers who'll change their mind about Brexit.

      These are our low-hanging fruit, and while I disagree with SS that we'll ever get 60% Yes, 57% or so should be attainable. And at a glance 57-43 would look to the international community (if not Generalissimo Johnson) like a strong mandate for independence.

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    3. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Mr Torrance, Please Collect Your Blood-Encrusted Nipple ClampsJanuary 26, 2020 at 3:31 PM

      "current No/Leavers who'll change their mind about Brexit" -- this should really say "Leavers who're former Yessers". They're low-hanging fruit, not the swivel-eyed bams in the OO etc.

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  6. Must be a well aff area with the two Tory parties getting a substantial vote between them.

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  7. I wonder what ticket the Tory stood on. Stop indyref? Or a local issue? Or Bully or Boris?

    Presumably the independence parties need to listen on the doorstep to why people are so attracted to dependence and am authoritarian Brexit, or is it something to do with doctors and teachers?

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  8. The people are right behind their parliament.

    https://www.progressscotland.org/research/scots-back-independence-referendum-powers-for-holyrood



    1. The Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently declined a request for the Scottish Parliament to decide on holding a Scottish independence referendum. Which parliament do you think should ultimately decide on the holding of a future Scottish independence referendum?
    The Scottish Parliament: 54% (61% - exc. DK)
    The Westminster Parliament: 35% (39% - exc. DK)
    Don’t know: 12%

    The next Scottish Parliament election will be held in 2021. If a pro-independence majority is elected to the Scottish Parliament at that election, do you think that the Scottish Parliament should or should not have the power to decide when a future independence referendum is held?

    In this scenario the Scottish Parliament should have the power to decide when a future independence referendum is held: 50% (58% - exc.DK)
    In this scenario the Scottish Parliament should not have the power to decide when
    a future independence referendum is held: 36% (42% - exc. DK)
    Don’t know: 14%



    That 35% is what the union is relying on. It's not going to be enough any more. They're losing too many soft nos.

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    1. This is the best it will ever get for Johnson. If he persists with resistance, that 35%/36% or so will shrink even further, down as low as <20%, i.e. the fraction that are not supportive of devolution at all.

      The 35% contains a proportion who would rather answer 'both parliaments equally', but are being forced to choose. Many of these will end up siding with the parliament that is not persisting in trying to take away their freedom to vote.

      People don't vote for those would take away their vote. Johnson has already massively reduced the chances of the unionists winning iref2, which will come eventually. The more he fights it, the more unionist support will recede.

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  9. What was the turnout at this by-election?

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    1. 32.5% compared with 51.3% in 2017

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  10. Feel quite sick looking at that result. maybe we could just move the freaking border up a bit!

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  11. Absolutely not! This part of Galloway is part of Scotland today like it has been for centuries.

    Just because some retirees move from elsewhere in the UK move there and bring their voting habits with them doesn't mean it should be hived off.

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    1. At least you recognise the UK and many Scots retire elsewhere.

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    2. This is one of the problems with the “50.1% is enough” School. It's not that anyone should try to say that an Independence vote is worth less than a Unionist one. But you can imagine the mischief that would be stirred after that type of result. So I agree with Uncle Jim Sillars that 60% would solve our problems and get iScotland off on the right foot. The only question is how to get there quickly, but freezing out 38% of the population isn't the best way.
      The SNP could find itself stuck on the fly paper of a drawn-out Brexit for a very long time if it keeps making EU membership the central part of its manifesto. It would be better to
      1) bag some political points from Westminster's handling of the issue (and what it shows about devolution). (The gift that could keep giving if fishing, farming, distilling and other interests are mishandled.) Rather than continually complaining about being “dragged out” concentrate on the new evidence about the relationship between Edinburgh and London.
      2) promote the idea of an instantaneous EEA/EFTA fix after Indy
      3) promise to open discussions with the EU with a view to submitting a package for popular approval within 5 years (Obviously dependent on the EU and the future position of the SNP and current allies)

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    3. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Smelling Salts for Ms Bird, PleaseJanuary 26, 2020 at 3:55 PM

      >So I agree with Uncle Jim Sillars that 60% would solve our problems and get iScotland off on the right foot. The only question is how to get there quickly, but freezing out 38% of the population isn't the best way.

      This is indeed an issue, no matter how many deny it. But there's an easier solution than getting Yes over 60% in an indyref.

      This would be to secure in Scots law the legality of an indyref without an S30, then to have a referendum on the day of the next Holyrood election on some version of:

      'Should the result of the upcoming referendum on independence be respected in Scotland, the UK and the international community?'

      Based on the result of today's poll you'd probably see at least 60% Yes to that, with many Unionists having participated in the vote.

      *That* then becomes the mandate we wave at London, the EU and Scottish Unionists. The subsequent indyref, while not just confirmatory, wouldn't be that far off it.

      Getting that specific mandate made official should be our priority, which is why I keep banging on about it (with apologies to frequent visitors).


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  12. The old saying by the Nat sis that you could put a monkey up for Labour and it would win now applies to the Nat sis. The Nat sis have their hard core now who do not care about the economy or working people only about leaving the UK. They would sell out Scotland to the EU given the opportunity. The real Scots are the Unionists.

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    1. Why don't you stand for Natalie's sister and see if your theory is correct.

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  13. I expect the EU/UK trade deal to include language and clauses on land borders and movement of goods and people that would render it impossible for an independent Scotland - that achieved that status legally, or by attempting UDI and recognition by the EU - impossible without that deal being reopened.

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    1. Of course, the EU will never a formalise deal that would be undone readily by Scottish indy. So Johnson will need to convince them that he will use all means necessary to control Scotland, including military force, and that he's willing to pay the price for that in cash and lives. It would be much worse than N. Ireland of course, because it wanted to be part of the UK by huge margins. In Scotland's case, we'd likely be dealing with a situation where most Scots supported independence. We would have a real live military occupation by a foreign power and all that comes with it. NI would be tea with the vicar by comparison.

      But then that plan can only be for 5 years as Johnson might lose the next election, so it would need guarantees from Labour and the Libs too that they would continue to subjugate Scots with all force necessary.

      Scotland is a serious problem for the UK and any trade deal. It would be better to just let Scotland go first (as it seems inevitable anyway), or build a deal that allows for this to occur smoothly. Which is what the EU will likely propose unless all UK parties are willing to use all necessary forced to keep Scotland under the jackboot for a generation to come.

      At the same time, the EU 27 can of course start negotiating directly with Scotland as of the end of this month when the UK ceases being a member. We may find they openly state they will recognise a non-Section 30'd referendum for example. They will, in the end, make a decision which is in their interests, not those of non-member and erstwhile rival England.

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    2. Surely (at least) Ireland would veto such a suggestion.

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  14. Another factor to consider in Galloway is that it is a neglected backwater, the SNP government is not seen as particularly interested compared to parts of the Highlands. Communications are poor, well paid jobs non existent practically. A large proportion of the wealth that is here is in the hands of large estates and other landowners and the recent arrivals. Try putting your house on the market down here and you'll find Northern English folk outnumber local viewers 16:1. They often remark that they are moving for retirement but are priced out of the Lake District and there are social benefits to living in Scotland that they can't avail of back home.
    The Conservatives play on this perceived lack of interest by the SNP Government. Border TV plays its part as well by giving the poor unfortunates news from Cockermouth and Carlisle more often than from Carsphairn or Clachanmore - really this is part of a cross border homogenisation exercise going back decades that has been quite successful. Add to this that some Conservative councillors are quite diligent and efficient, reply to queries and try to help means that they are well dug in.
    To turn this around would really require a thoroughly thought through strategy of investment on the part of SG allied to a much more energetic local campaigning mode by the SNP. As an example, Richard Arkless who was the MP before Viceroy Jack and who improved his performance at the December election was completely invisible between elections. This is complacent and undeserving of victory.

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  15. It is the wrong weather to have a street party to celebrate leaving the fascist EU however if anyone is having a party then please let me know the time and venue. My carer will help me along.

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  16. Regarding turnout, anything over 50% is totally legit as it represents the will of the majority. If turnout is >50%, then, unquestionably, the majority have voted.

    So e.g. 50%+1 Yes on a 50%+1 turnout means a majority voted Yes after a majority turned out to vote. It is, technically / legally the will of the majority, which is the basis for democratic decisions.

    Obviously the bigger the turnout and majority the better, but e.g. a boycott is highly risky if you can't get the turnout below 50% by doing so. This was why Spain sent in the jackboots. It was terrified of a clear Yes result on >50% of the electorate as it would, unquestionably, represent the will of the people. A election married by violence where people were stopped from voting is much easier to argue as not representing popular will.

    Our first poll is very worrying therefore, as it strongly suggests that if everyone who was against Holyrood being having the right to hold an iref boycotted the vote, the turnout would still be over 50%, so the boycott would be meaningless and just result in a huge Yes.

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    1. Nobody is planning an illegal referendum. Any referendum is absolutely going to be legal (under Scots law), free and fair so as to be valid. The world must see that the vote did represent the will of the Scottish people to the satisfaction of said Scottish people and their laws.

      It may go ahead with England / the rUK refusing to recognise it, but that would not make it illegal. Independence does not require the 'permission' of the parent state (e.g. recent UN Kosovo ruling). Possibly problematic though on the international stage if England kept being a c**t, but not illegal.

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    2. So..how would you know the turnout?

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    3. You've lost me. The referendum would be legal, and would follow the same procedure as last time, ergo the turnout would be known. The Scottish government manages all votes in Scotland in conjunction with local authorities, and these control the electoral roll.

      If the referendum was identical to 2014, it would be just as legal. All the Section 30 did was make it less open to challenge (by members of the public) as some aspects of the Scotland act are a bit grey. It didn't confer legality; that was already there.

      A new referendum bill would not get passed into law if it was illegal. If it makes it through holyrood, it will be the law of the land unless successfully challenged. Even then, a challenge may just result in minor revisions to the bill, so just delaying it somewhat.

      Iref2 will be legal under Scots law, so the turnout will be known.

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    4. With respect to the will of the majority where it pertains to referenda on national liberation, a majority one is enough. A requirement for more than that and the will of the minority prevails.

      The assertion that this is a good thing is a cosmically dumb idea proffered by idiots.

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    5. The electoral role for Scotland is held by Scottish authorities.

      If the referendum is legal, then it would be illegal for anyone working for these to withhold it. They could be dismissed or even fined.

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  17. Have unionists lost their minds? Are we really into a situation where the majority of Scots could support indy and unionists would advocate England using all legal weight, international clout, and even military force (which would be required longer term as sure as night follows day) to forcibly maintain Scotland as an colony against the will of its people?

    Are you absolutely f'n mad? Dear god look at yourselves and what you are becoming.

    If you want Scotland to remain in the union, you need to persuade Scots to vote for it. You are becoming utterly unhinged and will destroy the very thing you love. The section 30 refusal is a stab through the heart of unionism and you are fools if you cannot see that. Johnson has lit the flame of independence while mortally wounding unionism. He is more of a danger to the union than the SNP have ever been.

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    1. No don't need any of that, just need the First minister of Scotland to stand up in Parliament and say there will not be a indy ref in 2020.

      Must admit did think that Brexit & the scale of the Conservative win in the GE might mean that she would hold a indyref without a section 30. But appears she has not got the balls to do that.

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  18. 'have they lost their minds' asks man who spends all day posting the same comment on a little read nationalist blog

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    1. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Anon at 5.14pm Available to Rim You in the StallsJanuary 26, 2020 at 6:52 PM

      Anon at 5.14pm --

      Your fixation on Scottish Skier -- whining about him commenting while you're constantly commenting on his commenting --- is now challenging GWC as the saddest and creepiest thing on this site.

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  19. "It may go ahead with England refusing to recognise it, but that would not make it illegal. Independence does not require the 'permission' of the occupying foreign state"

    There, fixed it for you.

    UK is NOT now, nor has it ever been, the parent state. Scotland and England (incorporating Wales) created the UK of GB with the Treaty (Acts) of Union. It is a union of nations. And those who smoke-and-mirror you with baloney about the UK not being created until 1801 should stop reading the propaganda on wikipedia and read the actual Acts of Union. SCOTLAND IN NOT CATALONIA.

    The current occupation and oppression is being perpetrated by the English state. It is the English state that is now holding Scotland in bondage and refusing Scots their inalienable right under UN Charter and international law to decide how they will be governed and by whom.

    Scotland cannot secede FROM the UK, it can only dissolve it. Scottish independence will be a product of that dissolution. The union with England cannot survive its own end. That is to say, when the Union is dissolved the Union ceases to be. Exposition of this tautology is necessary for so many are stuck in the false belief that Scotland was subsumed by the English state by the 1707 treaty and that "England" and "the UK" are synonymous.

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    1. The UK is the only state. Scotland and England are not states.

      Nationalists are clueless. Do you all to to workshops to develop new and innovative forms of idiocy?

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    2. Maybe you should learn how to win elections?

      We've already won. The UK is now breaking up. A real border is being drawn down the Irish sea. The full backstop will be in place soon enough. Wait a few weeks and you'll see; N. Ireland will never leave the EU.

      As for no Section 30; that's Scottish unionism defeated. Scots unionists can no longer chap doors. What exactly are they campaigning for? They took away people's vote. How can you say 'vote for me!' when the person on the doorstep will reply 'but you took away my right to vote!'. It's the end for unionism now, for unionism existed by consent, and without that, it's dead.

      Enjoy your last days of Rome. It's all coming tumbling down.

      The UK, the royal family, the lot.

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    3. Aidan O Neil Jan 2020.

      "The 1707 Parliamentary union between England and Scotland undoubtedly created a new State, but it did not create one Nation.

      Various schemes for a wholly incorporating ‘perfect’ Union of Scotland and England had, unsuccessfully, been proposed to the English Parliament by James VI, King of Scots, after he had acceded to the English throne in 1603. The 1707 Union differed from these earlier schemes. The Treaty and Acts of Union in 1707 allowed for, but did notthemselves effect, any harmonisation of the systems of public law as between Scotland and England.

      And while ensuring the de-politicisation of Scotland, the Treaty put into place measures intended to protect -and indeed to strengthen -other aspects of Scotland’s distinctive continuing nationhood: notably its distinct and distinctive legal, ecclesiastical and educational systems.".

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  20. If England does not respect the result of elections in Scotland and the right of Scots to freely end the union, then it is not a friend, but an enemy state.

    Unionists, is that what you really want? To make England and it's people the enemy of Scots? Seriously?

    If you really loved the union, you would never do this to it. This is putting a knife through it's heart. It destroys everything the union was supposed to stand for.

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    1. It is descendents of the Irish and other such type refugees who do not respect the real Scottish people and our way of life. We let you in and you shit on us. Thank goodness for brexit.

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    2. You are English. You said your gran was an English migrant to these parts.

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    3. As was Nicola Sturgeons, are you saying shes English as well?

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    4. I don't mind at all. It's GWC that doesn't like migrants from outside Scotland. My gran was Irish, i.e. not Scottish, which is why GWC claims I'm therefore 'not Scottish'.

      Anyway, a primary qualifying criteria for a Scot is that they support Scottish self determination. If they don't, they cannot call themselves a Scot. You have to agree the Scots are a people / nation / country (thus have the right to self determination) to qualify as one; that's the very basis of the whole concept of nationality / identity. 'Blood and soil' is really not important.

      Sturgeon qualifies here. It seems GWC does not.

      We are now starting to see who is really a Scot. It seems David Cameron could claim that.

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    5. Skier, UK legal punters moving between the various UK nations since 1707 are not migrants. Just changing house. The Irish Republic were given special status which they do not appreciate and were allowed to move their massive unwanted birthrate to the UK. The fact is is that Britain and other countries have taken in the Irish or they would have faced several more famines. They just shag and have no responsibility.

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    6. No, English people are migrants to Scotland. Only if we stop using the term Scotland, and talk about 'Britain / the UK' does this cease to apply.

      migrant
      /ˈmʌɪɡr(ə)nt/
      noun
      1.
      a person who moves from one place to another, especially in order to find work or better living conditions.


      People from outside Scotland, from England and further afield, are also 'foreign'.

      foreign
      adjective
      1.
      of, from, in, or characteristic of a country or language other than one's own.


      There's absolutely nothing wrong with being either of these, but they are factually correct terms when we are discussing Scotland. If we just talk about the UK, then things change as noted.

      Delete
    7. That's pish Skier, you don't have to believe that Scotland is a nation/country to be a Scot. I believe in Scottish independence, but there are many who are happy with Scotland being a region of the UK. They are no less Scots, they're just happy with the UK being their nation/country.

      I'm a Fifer, but don't feel it needs to be a separate country.

      Delete
  21. Skier, I hold in my possession a lot of birth certificates for my ancestors. There is no mention of nationality on them just the town, parish or hospital of birth. The place of registration mentions the town or old parish but not a country. Although I do have a certificate that mentions the 1965 Scotland Act.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you check the location of the town, that will give you the country of birth.

      Delete
    2. Provided you are educated with geographical knowledge.

      Delete
    3. That's you disqualified, WC.

      Delete
  22. So what will unionists be campaigning for in 2021? Not the union obviously. No need for that as they've already cancelled any SNP win.

    Going to be interesting for them trying to explain this on doorsteps, i.e. how they have taken away folks right to vote. But then why even bother with campaigning if unionists are staring at the floor while they let English fascist scum Johnson pre-decide the election result?

    Yes, that's what you've done. How can you even write in a leaflet 'Vote X for the union' when you've already decided the outcome? Are you just going to take the piss out of voters to their faces after taking their vote from them, letting another country take away their freedom?

    The electorate will make you pay for this and hell mend you. It will destroy your union.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What will the SNP campaign on? Not independence obviously; they have failed to even try to deliver this despite having the power to do so.

      You could try and stand there and blame everything on England, but then you will just remind them of Brexiters blaming everything on other countries so thats a no go.

      Domestic policies maybe, that could work unless the person you are talking to thinks that self id is unscientific/ anti womens rights etc then that's a no go.

      Its going to be a tough one.

      Delete
    2. It's not me blaming England, it's the electorate. It what Johnson wanted though, i.e. to turn Scot against Englishman right? It's the only possible outcome of what he's done, as you are well aware, hence you are freaking out so much.

      Delete
    3. And of course if we've not had an iref by May 2021, the SNP will of course be campaigning for one.

      It's the Tories that can't campaign on the promise to stop one. If they plan to do that even if they lose, what's the point in voting for them?

      Their election leaflets would be just English wanks mocking Scots 'Ha ha ha jock scum, we've taken away your vote!'.

      Johnson has killed the Scottish Tories. A vote for them was a vote for no iref. Johnson has ensured they have no purpose in Scotland now. He's killed unionism.

      Delete
  23. 'Independents' in local elections have long been considered refuges for natural Tory voters but whom don't want to vote Tory per se, if they can help it. AKA the famous Tory shame factor in Scotland which has tended to underestimate Tory support in polling exercises in the past as as well.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Young Scottish people are leaving the borders because of the influx of sponging English pensioners settling in Dumfries and Galloway taking advantage of everything they can't get in England then voting against the Scottish government who supply the stuff

    They register their Grandchildren as living with them even though they live in England so they can attend University free, once again sponging off working age Scots who are paying for it

    They oppose every new thing that's needed in the area, they form focus groups to complain about anything they don't like, they are the typical total Nimbys you find all over England who obstruct all forward development

    An example of their complaints lately to the council are about people flying Saltires on their own property and insisting on Union flags being flown, the council rejects all of these types of claims

    Right down the Galloway tourist route has now become uncomfortable for actual Scottish people and other nationalities who are not English, these English people are racists, take a look at what they vote for and who they vote for, Brexit is only the beginning for these people their hope is to rid England of anybody who's not them, but what these fools don't even know is because of the shortage of workers the Tories know is going to happen the Tories have already begun advertising in Africa for workers to come to England where the streets are paved with gold, remember when they did this before to the Carribean folks then recently tried to deport them under the cover of darkness, so the white English who voted Brexit hoping to get rid of the foreigners they don't like are about to get more of the ones they don't want coming right back, the Brown and Black folks, and they're the ones the English hate the most, so Irony eh

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please give a list all the things that pensioners can get in Scotland that they can't get in England? Must be quiet a list....

      Delete
    2. Hard working taxpaying young single people pay through the nose for pensioners like me who can afford to pay towards prescriptions and bus fares. Nothing is free.

      Delete
    3. Pensioners also pay tax you fuckwit GWC. Nothing is free as you say. Everyone is paying towards public services. The more you earn, the more these are costing you in tax.

      The only people who get stuff 'free' (to some extent) are those who have little to no income, so are not paying much tax, i.e. the people who need such help.

      Why don't you pay your bus fares and prescription costs to the local foodbank if you want to chip in more?

      Delete
    4. I am a pensioner and we are raking in the dosh since our Tory friends keep raising the tax threshold. I pay less tax now and get the freebies payed for by working people. You have to love the Tories.

      Delete
    5. If you are getting freebies, it's because you are a lazy bastard living off the backs of others and choosing that.

      I personally pay way more into the system than I get back. You must be choosing not to do that. If you cared for the poor, you'd make sure you paid in more by e.g. handing cash to hospitals, foodbanks etc. Which it seems you are not doing by choice.

      Delete
    6. The UK has the lowest pensions in the EU

      Delete
    7. Irish Skier, your on form today with the christian language.

      Delete
    8. Sorry my parents get freebies (travel etc) now they have retired, are you saying they are lazy bastards?

      Last time I checked they paid in to the system to support people who were in retirement age when they were working and now that they are retired the working generation pay for them, seem quiet normal.

      Delete
    9. But pensioners like me payed a small concession fare on the bus and it worked well. We get heating allowance thanks to Gordon Brown. We never payed enough in tax to justify today's frebbies. Some of us still have dignity and want to still contribute.

      Delete
    10. Dignity?? Haha!

      Delete
  25. Survation (progress Scotland) still heavily down-weighting Yes voters, but now mainly from false recall of Yes (and Remain to some extent).

    The unweighted base says it just voted this:
    46% SNP
    25% Con
    18% Lab
    9% Lib
    3% Other

    Which is effectively spot in. Our base sample reflects the electorate really well.

    However, there are a large number of people lying through their teeth about what they did in 2014 and 2016.

    52% Yes
    48% No

    34% Leave
    66% Remain

    Johnson's win has increased voter regret it would appear!

    Which will invariably cause Yes voter down-weighting and make polls look better for unionists.

    2014 was nearly 6 years ago, with multiple elections and a major referendum since. It's comically insane to be past vote weighting to it. ~650,000 (~16%) of the electorate were not even present at the time (too young or didn't live here).

    Pollsters need to just use Holyrood 2016 or Westminster 2019 now. As these match well again now in terms of outcomes, they should be ok for weighting.

    2014 is useless, you have far too many people regretting their No vote due to all that's happened (Tory win, brexit), which is the only way to explain such a discrepancy. Probably the people who swung back last minute.

    That and the electorate is too different now due to deaths/coming of age and immigration/emigration. Electoral terms are normally at most 5 years, which is pushing the limits of past vote recall already. 6 years is just getting silly.

    Still, I was right about polls underestimating SNP. They did so by 3-4%. So, if I'm right here, Yes will be better than polls say too. And I say that suspecting they will already show a majority for Yes on average.

    MORI is likely to remain the most reliable as it doesn't past vote weight.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Holyrood already has the final say on if and when there's an independence referendum.

      That's what happened for 2014. Holyrood had the final say once Westminster had agreed to it. That's what made it a legal referendum.

      Speaking of that survation poll - have they released their yes/no figures yet? Why the delay?

      Delete
    2. Erm, the progress Scotland tables have already been published in full. There was no delay. All the info is there.

      Delete
    3. "Holyrood had the final say once Westminster had agreed to it."

      That's gibberish. If you're saying Westminster need to agree, then self-evidently Holyrood doesn't have the final say. (I don't acccept that's the legal position, but the contradiction in your statement is absurd.)

      By the way, why jump to the conclusion that there must have been secret Yes/No figures in the Survation poll, on the basis of zero evidence? Progress Scotland have said repeatedly that they're not interested in asking for Yes and No - they're trying to do something a little different.

      Delete
  26. LATEST, Remainers will refuse to accept the commemoration 50p Coin. Sir Keith will give power back to the people.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who is this Sir Keith of whom you speak?

      Delete
  27. So, why do people think Johnson's trying to get the Scots, N. Irish and Welsh to hate England? Why intentionally attack unionists and their devolution, so as they stand shoulder to shoulder with nationalists?

    Is he secretly working towards an independent England? It does look like that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should not complain about that Skier as this is what you want.

      Delete
    2. I wasn't complaining, but asking thoughts.

      It's interesting that you agree with my premise.

      Delete
  28. Occasionally, I start to lose my nerve and think that the influx of southerners (and there are many) will stop us getting free from the UK.Is it possible to hold an independence referendum with eligibility limited to born in Scotland as opposed to resident in Scotland. A factual response would be useful rather than an opinion. Does any one out there Know?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I understand the influx is currently mainly driven by people who plan to vote Yes. Scotland is now a potential lifeboat.

      Delete
    2. Hi Skier - all of my friends here in Sutherland are English - eight families. We all get on very well and socialise regularly. They are all very nice people who moved here for a better life but hey are all EU leave and NO to Scottish independence. We argue all the time about this - good natured - but they are all NO voters - including their vote aged children that's 22 No's to our 2. Very worrying.

      Delete
    3. Legally no, you can set the franchise to whatever you want. Provided that you can prove that you have found a way to inform and process the votes people who were born in Scotland but now live in other countries that they are eligible to vote, which would be very time consuming and prohibitively expensive.

      Also be hard to explain the reasoning for it. Someone who was born in Scotland but has lived in another country for years with no intention to move back to Scotland gets a vote but someone who was born in say France but has move to an lived in Scotland does not? Hard to see the logic there

      Delete
    4. Hey anon. Moving to Scotland is a pretty stupid thing to do if you support leaving the EU. Things are really not looking good for pro-UK leavers right now in Scotland. Even Johnson is intentionally trying to break up Britain.

      Everyone wave bye to N. Ireland. She starts her departure on the 31st.

      Delete
  29. Hi Anonymous 5:56 PM - thanks for the information. Still worrying, I suppose it is just wait and see with fingers crossed that we can convince enough people to vote yes wherever they come from.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's generally a better idea than trying to strip the vote from those you suspect won't support you

      Delete
    2. Hi Keaton - I guess you are right in that rebuke. Its just the tension at present is getting me down. Better to let things take their course whatever that may be.

      Delete
    3. Hi Anonymous, a nice massage from Trixi Bell could help your tension.

      Delete
  30. The Scottish Nat sis should withdraw all proposals for Scotland being a local council within the EU and will not be part of any EU Empire Army.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's what's happening to N. Ireland thanks to English Boris.

      And you trust him lol.

      Delete
    2. NI is getting millions thrown at them for public services by the government. Your Sinn Fein IRA mobsters almost brought NI to the brink. And what for, their gay lick all Catholic Ireland.

      Delete
    3. What's that got to do with the fact that the English have signed N. Ireland over to Eire and the EU?

      You are moaning about Sinn Fein lol, while your English Tory mates have just kick started reunification.

      More fool you.

      Delete
  31. The insanity of the UK...

    There is currently a mass emigration of skilled workers out of the UK. They are leaving in their hundreds of thousands. The exit gates are crammed full of them. It began last March; new arrivals having stopped post 2016 (how else did you think it possible to not have unemployment rise - yet - in rapidly slowing economy, but with wage growth weakening?).

    Yet on the radio, the government's plans to cut immigration of workers were being discussed.

    Yes, you heard that right, everyone is leaving en masse while the government puts together plans to deal with a queue at the door which doesn't exist.

    The UK's utterly fucked.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Where are the masses leaving from and why have the remainers not got this on camera?
      Knickerless wants a seperate immigration agreement. She wants a visa system for Scotland which is different from free movement. Seems she and the Nat sis have moved!

      Delete
    2. ONS data / UK government official records. Foreign workers in UK workforce began falling sharply last spring into the summer.

      They are not 'coming here taking our jobs', but instead 'blocking the exit gates as they try to get out'.

      Delete
    3. Its what brexiters wanted, so you should all be happy. It's temporarily keeping unemployment low, but explains why this doesn't correspond to strong wage growth; the latter is currently starting to shrink.

      Productivity is falling too as the skills depart, hence the economy shrinking. Both cause and effect.

      Never in the history of man has a booming economy been associated with low immigration / emigration. So we can look forward to a decent recession on current numbers. Why did you think retail sales were so dire? A large part of the customer base is leaving.

      Latest data out on 18th February.

      Delete
  32. OK Skier people come and go and always have however the masses you talk about is Nat si propaganda. The way you Nat sis get out a hole is tae dig another wan. Any country worth it's salt and wants to remain a country must have its own control of its borders and immigration and not run by a foreign rich man's committee.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You want England to control Scotland's borders

      Delete
    2. Aye, wants a union with 'full free movement and uncontrolled immigration into Scotland'.

      It's so comically hypocritical it's insane.

      Delete
  33. So Varadkar and Barnier have set the benchmark for trade negotiations. They are the big boys with the clout. Wake up Nat Sis they are bully boys.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nobody in the EU ever called me or my countrymen "Vermin" but Boris Johnson did and he means you too

      Delete
    2. Johnson the Englishman is handing N. Ireland to the EU on the 31st.

      Delete
  34. First post GE from Yougov this year. The Scottish sub-sample has

    SNP 50%
    Con 27
    Lab 13
    LD 6
    Grn 2

    The SNP's 2007 honeymoon still continues.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pvy6e0njjl/TheTimes_VI_Results_200127_w.pdf

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
      71% Wrong
      26% Right


      As I keep saying, Johnson must want to break up the UK; there's no other explanation for him trying to win votes for the SNP/Yes/Remain in the way he is.

      Delete
    2. Scotland showing the least number of don't knows.

      Delete
    3. How long did the Labour honymoon last?

      Delete
  35. When you consider the greens and at least 30% of the labour voters support Indy

    ReplyDelete
  36. From the Yougov poll the Scottish figures have

    Should we leave the UE? No 71 yes 26 DK 2 marked contrast to the rest of GB.

    ReplyDelete
  37. I'm going to have a wee party to celebrate the new border down the Irish sea on the 31st.

    Thanks Boris.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How will you know the border. Is it the water is always green on the other side. Will the purser make an announcement.

      Delete
    2. The customs and immigration checks at Cairnryan.

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    4. ...the completely open border and total EU free movement...

      and of course all the EU laws - made in part by Ireland, but not at all by the UK - that N. Ireland will be subject to.

      I'll raise a pint of Murphys to all this on the 31st.

      Boris, thanks for starting reunification!

      Delete
    5. Scottish/Irish/Frog Skier, does this mean I will have to show a passport rather than my Scottish Bus Pass? My Mrs usually loads her car with supplies for a week will this be checked for the little people?

      Delete
    6. No, I think the plan is to leave the border completely open, rendering brexit pointless.

      However as a mass emigration of skilled workers is underway, this should be safe enough.

      Mind you, as the UK is trying to force Scots to stay in the UK against their will, this may soon apply to foreign workers too.

      Delete
  38. So from what I can tell the Scot Gov master plan for Indy is...nothing. The Scot Parliament will have a vote on the same worded motion that they had passed a couple of years ago.

    Nicolas speech on Friday is her speaking as the leader of the SNP not as first minister, so anything she says will just be what the SNP plans to do not the Scot Gov.

    ReplyDelete