The first post-election YouGov poll of GB-wide voting intentions has been published, which is significant for us because YouGov appear to be the only firm that structure and weight their Scottish subsamples separately. The figures are therefore the first proper clue about what a full-scale Scottish poll will show - although they can only be a very vague clue, because the small sample size means there's a large margin of error.
SNP 50%, Conservatives 27%, Labour 13%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Greens 2%, Brexit Party 1%
If those figures turn out to be in the right ball-park (and that's still a big "if"), it would bear out my theory of the other day that both the SNP and the Scottish Tories will enjoy a post-election honeymoon, with the Tories deriving their boost from the election result south of the border, and with their extra support taken from other unionist parties.
And if full-scale polls show a similar increase in support for the SNP, there may be two distinct factors behind it. One would be a genuine change in public opinion on the ground, but the other will be methodological changes that correct for the underestimation of the SNP in the run-up to the election. YouGov have attached a methodological note explaining that 2017 past vote weighting has been replaced with 2019 past vote weighting, and that demographic weighting has been updated as well.
71% of the Scottish subsample think that Britain was wrong to leave the EU, and only 26% think Brexit is right. That's a bigger majority than usual, which may indicate that the subsample is a bit too "Remainy", and that may in turn cast a little doubt on the voting intention numbers. But at the same time it's encouraging, because the Yes movement desperately needs to ensure that the public don't "move on" from Brexit (whereas the British establishment, from Boris Johnson all the way through to the BBC and the Sun, will be trying to achieve the opposite effect and get us to accept Brexit as an unchangeable historical fact as soon as humanly possible).