Tuesday, January 28, 2020

First post-election YouGov subsample has the SNP at a heady 50% of the vote

The first post-election YouGov poll of GB-wide voting intentions has been published, which is significant for us because YouGov appear to be the only firm that structure and weight their Scottish subsamples separately.  The figures are therefore the first proper clue about what a full-scale Scottish poll will show - although they can only be a very vague clue, because the small sample size means there's a large margin of error.

SNP 50%, Conservatives 27%, Labour 13%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Greens 2%, Brexit Party 1%

If those figures turn out to be in the right ball-park (and that's still a big "if"), it would bear out my theory of the other day that both the SNP and the Scottish Tories will enjoy a post-election honeymoon, with the Tories deriving their boost from the election result south of the border, and with their extra support taken from other unionist parties.

And if full-scale polls show a similar increase in support for the SNP, there may be two distinct factors behind it.  One would be a genuine change in public opinion on the ground, but the other will be methodological changes that correct for the underestimation of the SNP in the run-up to the election.  YouGov have attached a methodological note explaining that 2017 past vote weighting has been replaced with 2019 past vote weighting, and that demographic weighting has been updated as well.

71% of the Scottish subsample think that Britain was wrong to leave the EU, and only 26% think Brexit is right.  That's a bigger majority than usual, which may indicate that the subsample is a bit too "Remainy", and that may in turn cast a little doubt on the voting intention numbers.  But at the same time it's encouraging, because the Yes movement desperately needs to ensure that the public don't "move on" from Brexit (whereas the British establishment, from Boris Johnson all the way through to the BBC and the Sun, will be trying to achieve the opposite effect and get us to accept Brexit as an unchangeable historical fact as soon as humanly possible).

79 comments:

  1. James,

    How does the 'weighting by recalled vote' actually work - can you provide a hypothetical arithmetic example (please)?

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  2. What was the age range, James? Did it include 16-17 year olds and EU nationals?

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    1. No, it will be UK over 18 only as it's not a Scottish poll.

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  3. Odd thing about the responses to the Brexit - right/wrong question perhaps isn't the 71% "wrong". but that only 2% of Scots were "Don't Know" compared with 11-18% in rGB, with most going for "wrong".

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  4. Time to call for Independence while we are effectively still in the EU. The anti-Scots are running scared the "once in a generation" crap only confirms who desperate and clueless they are.

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    1. I'd say.
      I'm getting sore biting my lip waiting for Wednesday, and now I have to wait until Friday for the SNP line to be laid out. I still harbour a faint hope that drama may ensue, with the FM resigning, and the SNP/Green majority allowing it to be impossible to select a new FM, thus leading to an independence vote Holyrood election... Perhaps a bit late now as the tories would likely just declare the Holyrood parliament to be self-definingly over.

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    2. I agree. I am hoping FM will accept that a referendum will not happen and use the Holyrood election instead.

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    3. I still harbour a faint hope that drama may ensue, with the FM resigning, and the SNP/Green majority allowing it to be impossible to select a new FM, thus leading to an independence vote Holyrood election...

      Is that how it works? The Holyrood website says the FM has to be elected by a majority, but does that mean a majority of votes available (seats), or a majority of votes cast (i.e. not counting abstentions)? If it's the latter, the election of an FM couldn't be prevented in the way you suggest

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    4. Keaton: You're technically right, I once wrote a geekish article in iScot magazine about that very subject, but it arguably doesn't really matter, because any First Minister installed on a minority vote could quickly be voted down on a confidence vote.

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    5. The arrangements for electing a FM are governed by Standing Orders - not legislation. SOs can be suspended by a simple majority of MSPs,

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  5. The EU waster MEPs packing their bags to come home and many in tears. And who can blame them for crying as they have lost the most cushiest number that is imaginable next to our Lordships in the House of Lords.
    Sing the Marsielle working people and campaign next to get rid of the devolved wasters.

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    1. 1/4 of the UK (N. Ireland) is to remain subject to the bulk of EU law with a completely open border and full free movement.

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    2. The six counties of Ulster will not notice as there has been free movement between the UK and its Dominions since 1923.
      I will indulge in a wee Jamieson on Friday night and wear the Sash ma Faither wore.

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    3. It's full free movement with the EU. Polish, Romanians, Bulgarians...the lot. Border open all the way to Turkey.

      So much for brexit controlling Britain's borders.

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    4. I am all for letting the Turks in they will outbreed the Irish in no time.

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  6. What did people expect. The former USSR didn't allow the peoples of satellite nations to vote to leave freely either.

    The UK is now the 'UKSSR' as the brexiters like to say.

    Unlike the EU, where a quick article 50 is all that's required.

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    Replies
    1. My Mrs who was a remainer is sitting here with a South Eastern Australian glass of red wine, French red abandoned, how quickly people adapt.

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    2. the Satellite states of the USSR did not have the tight to hold referendums (you have been very vocal on this forum that the right to hold one is within the power of the Scot Gov).

      How does it feel to of voted for a person/party who promised you a referendum and you believe has the power to hold one only to be betrayed time after time after time.

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    3. England says we don't have the right. Are English people just liars and our enemies? Is that what you are saying?

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    4. THe SNP has the right to hold a referendum, are you saying the the Scot Gov is my enemy? Do I have told hold protests outside the Scot Parliament in order for them to use their powers to start an indy ref ?

      Sorry the days of only blaming England for everything are gone. I completely agree that the UK Gov should of given a section 30, but also the Scot Gov should use its powers to hold one. Both are equally culpable as both are blocking an indyref. Anyone who only blames English Borris for blocking an Indyref but fails to blame Scottish Nicola for blocking an indyref is a racist, obviously.

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  7. For the English Tories, 27% is them winning the election and so 'no voting for you jock vermin'.

    England is our 'friend' you know.

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    1. For the Scottish SNP winning an election and then doing nothing about a second ref that they promised is ok. They moan about leaving the EU but do nothing about starting the process the could lead to them rejoining (indyref) they moan about how much better off the inhabitants of Scotland could be if Scotland was independent yet doing nothing about holding a indyref to let that happen. the SNP are you 'friend' though you know.

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    2. The public all blame England/Westminster though. It's great.

      Thanks Boris!

      Also for giving N. Ireland to Eire / the EU.

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  8. Seems the Scottish Nat sis had loads of brexiteers including senior MSPs. However the Nat sis silenced them.

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    1. There are no brexiters in the SNP. Only Scooters. They hate Britain.

      They speak openly.

      I'm one of them; I support the EFTA and full free movement in addition to the EU.

      It's just you don't listen.

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    2. Anyone remember me?

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    3. What was the question in the poll? e.g. If there was a general election who would you vote for?

      So the Brexit party get 1% of the vote, what would their policy be?

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    4. Sandy Watt invented the steam electric light bulb and associated items of similar nature.

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    5. Sandy Watt @ 9:02PM -
      No.

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  9. The WEALTH GAP is growing in Scotland thanks to our progressive Scottish leftist Nat si party. But never fear the youth are now purchasing fortified wine and Buckfast Abbey products.

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    1. Alcohol consumption is rising in England but falling in Scotland.

      English folks becoming depressed due to brexit, while Scots look forward to indy we can assume.

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48675313

      Scots bought less alcohol in 2018 than any year since records began in the early 1990s, according to a new report...

      ...The 2019 MESAS (Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland's Alcohol Strategy) report said...

      ...Since 2010 the volume of pure alcohol sold per adult through supermarkets and off-licences has fallen by 9% in Scotland.

      It has risen by 3% in England and Wales over the same period...

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    2. Alcohol sales increase in English border towns. Clever Jockos indeed. Pensioners in Scotland are allowed free bus travel to Berwick Upon Tweed and Carlisle.

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    3. Anyone travelling 100 miles+ to save a few pence on a can of lager is a prize British idiot.

      Figures are England-wide. They are taking to the bottle while the Scots get their heads straight.

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    4. Frosty Jack is much cheaper in England.

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    5. Here's hoping that one pensioner ends up taking a one way trip.

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  10. So SNP + Green + 40% Labour = 57%.
    Pretty much where I expect independence support is at the moment.

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    1. If you're assigning 40% of Labour to Yes it's probably not accurate also to assign 100% of SNP and Green

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    2. Although if 44% SNP = 50% Yes (MORI, the most accurate GE pollster)

      Then 50% SNP (yougov sample) = 57% Yes...

      Based on a simple direct linear correlation.

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  11. Maybe all this infuriating delay might just be for the best in the end ?

    Such evidence as there is suggests that all the 'NO NON NEIN NIET NIX' stuff from the lying liar is gradually increasing our support. As it goes on a whole spectrum of shit storms for dear old blighty are coming, head on, down the road. Let them come when we're at 57-60%. Then bite and kick and gain indy by referendum or whatever other convoluted route historical circumstances present us with.

    Caw canny !

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    1. "Such evidence as there is suggests that..."

      What evidence is that?

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  12. The people of Scotland will speak with one voice on Wednesday.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51284836

    MSPs to back new independence referendum in Holyrood vote

    And Scots will watch to see what the fascists in England with their swastika armbands do as they try to crush the 'jock vermin' beneath their jackboots.

    The UK is now mortally wounded. Blood is pouring from the wound Johnson has given it. If he doesn't stem the flow now with an immediate section 30, it will die in the heart of Scots forever.

    It may already be too late.

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    1. I hope that voice isn't Willie Rennie's.

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    2. With brexit now going ahead, the Lib Dems have no functional purpose.

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    3. Neither has GWC, but...

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  13. It's good that such sensible voices such as GWC are so active on this board. I mean why would we want to destroy such a succesful union. A Union in which we are listened to and respected, the wealth we create helps improve the lives of our citizens and we can look forward to a glorious future with more of the same.. great! got it GWC you've convinced me...

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  14. There is no positive case for the union at all now. None whatsoever. Zero. Zilch.

    Unionists know they cannot convince Scots to vote for the union anymore, as there just is no justifiable case for doing so.

    Hence 'No Section 30!'. They have lost the debate. Unionism has failed.

    Unionism is, by its very definition, arguing the case for the union. Unionist parties exist to do this. It is the entire point of their existence.

    By blocking a referendum, Johnson kills unionism. The case for the union cannot be made because Johnson has 'outlawed' it.

    We now have the nats arguing strongly for independence, riding the crest of a wave, but unionism has been completely silenced by Johnson.

    He has overturned the result of 2014, wiping it from history (for consent is only given so long as it can be freely withdrawn), while silencing unionism.

    It is a complete disaster for Scottish unionists. And I think there are plenty of these who, deep down, know it. Only the idiots are rejoicing, for they know not what they do.

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    1. I see you are going full blown racist continuing to blame English Borris for blocking indyref, whilst refusing to do the same for Scottish Nicola. Very telling....

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    2. What happened to brexit being cancelled? I thought that was guaranteed?

      And England is trying to overrule Scottish democracy. You just cannot pin that on Sturgeon. It's just comically pathetic watching people desperately trying to make excuses for the revolting fascist UK that is developing.

      Sorry, but we are seeing the true face of the English government right now, and it is very ugly.

      The nats were right all along. Everything they said was true. England is deeply racist towards Scotland; so much so it's even now trying to cancel elections.

      And it's not just the Scots, but the Welsh and N. Irish are prisoners too. Colonies to an aggressive, racist England. All three parliaments refusing consent for the mass power grab that overturns the 1997 referendums.

      Of course not all English folks are like that, far from it, but they have to take responsibility for what their government is doing. And it is the English government. It no longer has consent from Scots for rule, so it isn't British any more.

      2014 has been overruled. The result no longer stands; not if it cannot be freely undone / or reaffirmed in the same way.

      You cannot squirm out of this. Every Scot is watching it.

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    3. If your wife says she's thinking about leaving you, and your response is to try and lock her in the cellar while shouting 'You agreed we should stay together six years ago, so no, you are not leaving me!', your relationship does not have her consent.

      This is where the UK is now. There is no excusing it.

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    4. If i lock my wife in the cellar and then you come along with the key to the cellar but refuse to use it, then you are as culpable for keeping here locked up.

      Again, unless the Scot Gov uses its powers to hold a referendum it is a culpable for the Scottish Electorate as the 'English' Government for blocking an indyref.

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    5. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Doms Desperately NeededJanuary 29, 2020 at 6:41 PM

      "There is no positive case for the union at all now. None whatsoever. Zero. Zilch."

      Incredibly unfair to say this before we've all experienced the Festival of Brexit.

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    6. Adam, you are really pathetic. Grow up. It seems what's happened with brexit has turned you into a real shit. Get over it and back democracy. Unionists lost. 8 bloody elections since 2014.

      Scotland (not the SNP, but Scotland, her people, parliament and parties) will try and how well it goes will depend on how much of a c**t England is.

      What I know for sure is the people of the countries who sung a song in Scots, my language, today about how we will soon be reunited and enjoy the good times together again as friends are my friends.

      The country trying to stop my people voting and to make my country its colony is my enemy. It once was a friend maybe, but certainly no more.

      I used to be British. I remember partying on the beach in Skye with all the English folks from my geology class in St. Andrews uni as we all celebrated Blair's win and devolution. They were so pleased for me about the parliament. We even all watched braveheart together in the cinema! I had such high hopes for devolution.

      But since then, unionists have kicked, spat on and shat all over my Scottish nationality, my country, my people, my wife and family, all the time telling me I'm the racist. By doing so they have chipped away at my Britishness bit by bit until there was just a tiny little grain left. That was finally ground to dust the other day by Boris Johnson.

      What a fucking idiot I was to hold out the belief that maybe there was some good left, and Johnson would do what Cameron did.

      But no, the nats were completely right and I was the fool.

      So hell mend the unionists now, for it's not just in me that the last light of unionism is now snuffed out.

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    7. You will be forgotten soon Skier. Pity you did not learn much at geology class and have become an EU Empire Nat si. It is not really a bad thing to be a narrow thick plank of wud Scottish Nat si. But to sell out your country to a would be Empire is onerous.

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    8. I do respect democracy. I think that Boris should of granted a section 30. But i won't fall down the nationalist whole of overt racism of blaming other countries and not my own. The SNP campagned repeatedly on the getting a manadate of indyref 2 and yet every time , despite having the power to do so, they have failed to enact the legislation for a second referendum, instead fermenting the cancer of grievance politics. Democracy is not withholding a vote from the electorate which both the UK Gov and and the Scot Gov have done.

      How can I trust the SNP with anything they say regarding an Independent Scotland why they lie about delivering independence and fail to use the powers they have.

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    9. I don't recall asking you to trust the SNP.

      From my perspective, it seems they are quite busy with iref preparations.

      They told the electorate they would hold an iref if Scotland was forced out of the EU against it's will. That was only confirmed in December.

      In fact, you personally advised us all that Brexit was never going to happen, ergo no need for an iref, right up until the GE, following which you went all silent for a while, unsurprisingly. So I have no respect for what you are trying to argue now.

      And how the SNP act has no bearing on whether England is an enemy of Scotland or not. That is something which is decided by England's behavior alone. The SNP cannot be used to deflect here. I'll judge both by their actions separately.

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    10. England is not an issue however your personal hatred of the English is telling. The UK held a legal referendum on the EU membership and the result was to leave.

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    11. I see the GWC/Scottish Skier poster has added a new persona to his list called Adam. Now he can have 3 way arguments with himself.

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  15. "We have deep rooted relationships between people north and south of the border, Mr Rennie says."

    This is what makes me sick about British nationalism. That somehow I should feel closer to people in England I've never met than I should to my French wife or Irish gran. This can only be explained by the belief that Brits are somehow a unique people, superior to others.

    It is deeply racist, and present even in the Lib Dems.

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    1. Lib Dems to remove the Dem part after their humiliating performance in the Brussels REICHSTAG today.

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  16. Never thought I would hear such grovelling from the Lib Dems in the EU debate. Those fuckers actually think they are gainfully employed. And Knickerless want to keep the EU fascist flag displayed at Holyrood. Well done to the Finnish Mep who congratulated the UK for leaving.

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    1. The best thing about being in the EU is that it annoys lowlife like you.

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  17. Auld lang Syne.

    The most famous Scottish song in the world, sung in the language of her people, about old friends being reunited soon again.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-01-29/emotional-meps-sing-auld-lang-syne-as-eu-parliament-approves-brexit-withdrawal-bill/

    I'm genuinely touched.

    Scotland's friends are those singing that today.

    Its enemy is the country that would overrule Scottish elections and make it a colony if it can.

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    1. It sounded like Auld Lang Zyne from the waster EU money grabbers. Plenty of vacancies at the job centre however I doubt any of them will know one end of a drainpipe from another.

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    2. Auld Lang Syne.. Wad bring a tear tae a gless ee.
      An EU HASTE YE BACK tae Scotland.

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  18. England has falsely declared it owns Scotland, then the question becomes
    Are you happy to be owned by England YES or NO

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    1. Nobody owns me and my vote and you Scottish Nationalists are frightening. I can appreciate what my old Jewish kinder transport friend once said. You feel you are safe in a democratic society then a bunch of fanatics turn up at your door.

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    2. You and your kind are owned by the Duke of Kent who is your feudal Lord and Grandmaster and you owe your fealty to him as historical servant of Queen Elizabeth 11 of England, didn't you know that

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    3. You people also despise Jews Muslims Hindus, in fact anybody who's not one of you that's why you're never done spitting on Priests and vandalising places of worship, you can't even deny it because you keep being caught, all the little Tommy Robinson worshipers

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    4. I don't believe for a moment that you have ever had a friend, WC. And certainly not a refugee from Europe.

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    5. GWC, to be honest, you talk a lot about the adult sexual abuse of children. An awful lot. Just about every thread involves some sort of post from you on the topic.

      What gives?

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    6. Well not every thread however what is wrong with reminding people about abuse? Perhaps you prefer covering it up.

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    7. Perhaps you prefer participating, WC?

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  19. GWC away back to your sewer you Britnat lowlife.

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    1. I think, after the Brexit referendum and the insulting disdain of any Scottish input the term BritNat would be more accurately described as AngloNat, even for Scottish self-haters.

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  20. Nobody's talking about the things I want to talk about. I'm losing patience here. Jump to it, people.

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  21. https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1222815725074690052

    Philip Sim
    @BBCPhilipSim
    Incredible timing; the Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 got royal assent yesterday, at the same time as MSPs were voting to endorse the idea of having a referendum in 2020

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  22. Another interesting thing about the 'No Section 30' thing is that it kills any idea that Scotland is 'Anti-English', and confirms, without doubt, that England is 'Anti-Scottish'.

    Johnson has really turned things on their head.

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  23. Unfortunately the "swing" is probably the simple change in 16-21 age group from 2014 and the exit from this realm of many NO voters. The Brexit event should have triggered a far greater swing.
    The softly, softly approach by the SNP is wearing people down. The failure to challenge GERS for example is typical of the submissive approach.
    The speech by Nicola was delivered with skill and confidence. However it was far too weak as regards a forward plan.
    No Nation has gained their Independence from a dominant "partner" without either war or civil unrest. I reject force but I also reject weak submission.
    Pull the MPs Back from Westminster.
    Go to court over the Referendum.
    Refuse to publish GERs and produce an alternative.
    Deny cooperation with Westminster on key issues.

    With a dozen mandates for the Referendum why would another in 2021 change a thing?
    What could happen is a collapse of the Independence campaign.

    The waving of mandates has zero impact now and the bully boys only gain confidence in their actions by the lack of action.

    Nicola and the SNP politicians are first class people. The plan is the problem ( lack of a plan B to be precise)

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