Thursday, December 12, 2019

VIDEO: Anti-Brexit tactical voting guide for Scotland

Do you have a pro-European voter in your life who lives in either a Scottish Tory seat or a Scottish Tory target seat?  Are they not especially party political but very keen on doing whatever they can to stop Brexit?  If so, I've made this video just for them, so please feel free to pass it on.  It's a guide to anti-Brexit tactical voting in Scotland.



Unfortunately the figures for the Survation poll I tentatively reported in my previous post did turn out to be too good to be true, although it's still a very good poll for the SNP - significantly better than the Panelbase polls, for example.  Here are the correct numbers -

SNP 43%
Conservatives 28%
Labour 20%
Liberal Democrats 7%

Seats projection: SNP 47, Conservatives 8, Liberal Democrats 3, Labour 1

Labour will be breathing a sigh of relief this morning, but the Lib Dems must be horrified - if Survation are right they're back to the share of the vote they started with in 2017.

There's also some very good news on the independence question...

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 49%
No 51%

48 comments:

  1. Fingers crossed. Thanks for all your hardvwork, James. And to all you SNP supporters out there why not contact your local SNP office today and help out with their Get The Vote Out operation.
    Aldo_macb

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  2. From the tables:
    43.2% SNP
    27.9% Con
    19.8% Lab
    7.3% Lib
    0.8% Grn
    0.5% Brx

    49.3% Yes
    50.7% No

    Yougov indy poll the other day now just looks like a total clanger. Other pollsters completely unable to replicate it. No wonder they left so many numbers off the published tables [embarrassed emoticon].

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  3. Extreme level of SNP voter down-weighting due to 2017 false recall.

    Unweighted base says it voted:
    43% SNP in 2016
    44% Yes in 2014

    Absolutely spot on within MoE, as you'd expect for a non-random sample (panel targeted demographic). SNP a tad under, but then so is Yes. All good.

    Yet the same people claim to have voted 46% SNP in 2017. Remain is also way too high and more like pre-vote polls; leave doing better than expected due to Remain voters not turning out (but now telling pollsters they did presumably, or at least what they 'supported' rather than voted).

    This is what was seen for 2010/2011 recall ahead of 2014 and why pollsters stopped weighting to Westminster.

    If there is anything to this - and I was absolutely right ahead of 2014 about it - then it might be a better day for the SNP than it looks.

    It's in the hands of the gods now though.

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    Replies
    1. The unweighted base, which says it voted 43% SNP 2016 and 44% Yes in 2014, says it is voting this way today:
      48% SNP
      26% Con
      17% Lab
      8% Lib
      2% Oth

      The difference between that and final numbers is due mainly to the false recall of 46% SNP in 2017. Of course since its 43/44, then it's probably more 49%.

      That's what numbers would look like based on the weighting methods used ahead of 2015, i.e. Holyrood 2011 and iref 2014.

      Delete
  4. Why has this poll not asked how people have already voted as well?

    Around 20% of the electorate are on postals and I thought once postals had been issued, pollsters were meant to alter the questions to reflect the possibility that many of their respondents won't be 'voting tomorrow'.

    That sounds like a recipe for understating the Tory vote.

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    Replies
    1. I'm not sure that's an issue. Folk will automatically say what they've already voted.

      Tories have been utterly unable to improve their position since 2017, hitting their head on the ceiling they appeared to hit in that election for the two years since. Their share is probably the one we can be most confident off.

      And of course it depends on a big turnout drop like last time. They really need that to do as well as 2017. If turnout picks up, even just a few %, it's in all probability going to cost them quite a few seats.

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    2. Dangerous assumption I would say. Where there is latitude for misinterpretation, things will be misinterpreted, there is nothing surer.

      How BIG an issue it is would be very difficult to say. I doubt as big a factor as turnout though.

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    3. I don't see how it could affect things much. Unless voters who'd already voted stated they intend to vote something else.

      As postal votes are mostly Tory, this would e.g. require lots of Tories claiming to have voted for Corybn or Sturgeon for some unfathomable reason.

      Otherwise, all that should happen is that the poll becomes more reliable as the people are stating what they actually voted rather than what they are planning to (yet might yet change minds at the last minute).

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    4. No, they would say they are not voting. Because they won't be.

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    5. Also just noticed that the UK poll and the Scotland poll used completely different questions on VI.

      The exercise had been trailed as a UK wide poll with a larger than usual sample for Scotland but it was clearly two entirely separate exercises.

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    6. You seem to have forgotten that the brexit party is still at 3% or higher in most polls. Given that they are not standing candidates in 316 conservative constituencies then they are stuck with either not voting or voting for the get brexit done party.

      Either way the percentage share for the johnson party increases. 43/97 or 46/100 as their ceiling. 46% in a ftpt election gives you a massive landslide.

      Delete
    7. Erm, Brexit is less than 0.5% in recent Scottish polls. Green forms the bulk of 'others', so transfers here will likely go to the SNP.

      In England maybe you mean? In 2017, the remaining 3% UKIP went to Labour on the day, taking them to 40%.

      Delete
    8. "No, they would say they are not voting. Because they won't be."

      Maybe you'd be dumb enough to say that, but most wouldn't. Unless I've gravely misjudged the intelligence of Tory voters?

      Delete
  5. Based on the latest polls and from my own personal evidence this is my prediction.

    SNP Gains:

    East Renfrewshire;
    Stirling;
    Gordon;
    Angus;
    Ochil and South Perthshire;
    Ayr Carrick and Cumnock;
    Midlothian;
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West;
    North East Glasgow;
    Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill; and
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross.

    Too close to call;
    Aberdeen South (SNP/Tory marginal);
    Moray (SNP/Tory marginal);
    Lanark and Hamilton East (SNP/Tory marginal);
    North East Fife (SNP/Lib Dem marginal); and
    East Dunbartonshire (SNP/Lib Dem marginal).

    Non SNP taget seats that are holds:
    Edinburgh West (Lib Dems);
    East Lothian (Labour);
    Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Labour); and
    Banff and Buchan (Tories).


    ReplyDelete
  6. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath is too close to call. Labour didn't win last time because their vote share surged. It didn't, it dropped. Unfortunately, SNP voters stayed at home and their vote share plummeted. This time the independence candidate is Neale Hanvey. Labour and their MSM chums have played a very dirty campaign against him (with willful collusion of a tiny group of fringe activists in the SNP). Laird's team have been accused of serious breaches of electoral law. As these were publicised in the local paper yesterday, there could well be a bit of a backlash. Hanvey is still in with a chance, despite everything.

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  7. Final Ipsos-Mori sub-sample - poll just released

    SNP 48
    Con 23
    Lab 17
    LD 8
    Grn 2
    Oth 2

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  8. Yikes, 3 seats for the Libdems, is one of them Jo's seat?

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  9. Office discussion revealed one 2014 No voter (now a Yes,) voted SNP, one No voter tactically voted SNP, one Tory probably abstaining, and another Tory voter voting Tory.

    Plus myself voting SNP of course, I'd say that's a decent result.

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    Replies
    1. A small subsample, but one I'd like to see replicated Scotland-wide.

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  10. Tory lead UK-wide less than 10 points in the end on average; England elects has 9 points.

    Looking at the data clustering, it could be less, maybe only 7.

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  11. As a lefty green socialist independence supporter, have just voted SNP for only the second time in my life. Hope others do the same!

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  12. East Dunbartonshire is very close and Jo Rennie and Willie Swinson will be biting their collective nail, although Swinson eventually turned up to vote before she goes back to London to sit in a TV studio or maybe not to watch her demise or lucky massive victory in the constituency she hasn't lived in for years but has been the privilege of her life to serve by never actually being in it

    *Potholes* was the only word she ever use anytime she was in it

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  13. Wis oot earlier tae vote for Calum Kerr.

    ReplyDelete

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  15. As minister for the union, will Johnson resign if the Tories fail to win in all 4 home nations?

    It's a total disaster for the union if they don't, or at least make major gains.

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  16. Hello. Any news about turnout?

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    Replies
    1. Turnout is up in the Dundee seats from 2017. Seems to be in all the adjoining seats too. The mood music from the workers that I spoke to today was very good. They said far better than 2017.

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    2. Was chatting to the 2 guys in my small local polling station and they described business as being 'steady'. By the time I voted at 5pm turnout was running at around 45%, with them obviously expecting it to be much higher by 10pm. They believed that the postal vote turnout had been good too.

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    3. Glasgow East polling station , very busy according to the staff.

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    4. Not much talk about Glasgow East changing hands. Which is strange because of its small majority and the high Leave vote in 2016. Depends what other pre-occupations the local Leavers have, I suppose.

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    5. Ochil and South Perthshire - spoke to SNP official who said it had been busy. Got home and then received a get-out-the-vote call from SNP.

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  17. Okey-doke, from the tables the Indy figures I'm always interested in: NO 46.7%, Undecided 7.0%, Refused 0.9%. If that split 5% YES, 2.9% NO which is not unreasonable, that makes it YES 50.3%. Which would do me fine.

    As for the GE, I'm still hoping against hope for 50%+ for the SNP.

    Any chance any Green readers could helps us out here, bearing in mind the Green message is well and truly out of the box with Greta Thunberg being Time's 2019 Person of the Year - beating that well-known Green advocate and climate change denier - Donald Trump?

    Do I get brownie points for knowing that ? :-)

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  18. It has been a reasonable day so far in Moray. No excuses for SNP vote not turning out based on that. Well they will need to, to overcome the bias in the PVs in favour of the anti Scottish and Fascist Tories. They will have to look for other reasons to blame if the odious Douglas Ross gets re-elected.

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    Replies
    1. Stirling constituency:

      SNP mannie came ti the door at noon. Asked the usual. I expressed disquiet with their "European" policy. "Ah..." But then I acknowledged that it would make no sense to let the Tories in.
      "Yes.. stop Boris!" quo the mannie.
      Anyway, I'm a man of honour, so... voted with my head for one more time. There was an even money chance that I'd have written a bit more than "X" on the form, so maybe the right nudge at the right time does pay off.

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    2. I like Douglas Ross's chirpy little upturned nose. He reminds me of the shopkeeper in League of Gentlemen.

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    3. I think that "The Right Mudge At The Right Time" is a winning election slogan.

      At least, it worked a treat on Morningside Community Council.

      Delete
    4. Arthur G WindowsillDecember 12, 2019 at 9:23 PM

      How about "Nudge my Mudge"?

      Delete
  19. Where are the exit polls taken? There's been no one asking questions at my local polling station today.

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    Replies
    1. "The exit poll is based on 144 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales."

      "Exit pollsters base themselves at a selected polling station in a chosen constituency. "

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50716626

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  20. Mmm, so far there are 728,148 postal votes in.
    http://www.electionsscotland.info/download/downloads/id/409/ukpge2019_pv_figures_scotland.xlsx

    Total electorate 4,053,140
    http://www.electionsscotland.info/download/downloads/id/408/electorate.xlsx

    Looking for the total number of polling places - haven;t found it so far, think it's about 4,100 from memory!

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  21. more than 1 in 6 votes is postal?
    I feel a weirded out by that idea

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    Replies
    1. I wouldn't, look at the weather ! It is Scotland remember.

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    2. Or a squirrel. It is Scotland remember.

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  22. Holy shit.

    GE2019, EXIT POLL:

    Con: 368 (+51)
    Lab: 191 (-71)
    SNP: 55 (+20)
    LDem: 13 (+1)

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    Replies
    1. If that's close to true, it's probably the UK's last general election.

      Bye bye Scotland and NI.

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  23. Please let it be true.

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