Sunday, December 8, 2019

Up-to-date Panelbase poll suggests the SNP are still on course for significant gains

I wondered after the new independence figures from YouGov whether we'd see a corresponding drop in support for the SNP, and now we're some way towards answering that question.  A new Panelbase poll has been released with fieldwork dates that are identical to the ones that Britain Elects claimed for the YouGov poll (although I'm wondering if that might have been a mix-up) and show only statistically insignificant changes within the margin of error.

Scottish voting intentions (Panelbase):

SNP 39% (-1)
Conservatives 29% (+1)
Labour 21% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-1)

Seats projection: SNP 40 (+5), Conservatives 12 (-1), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1), Labour 2 (-5)

I know people's reactions to this will differ, and some will think it looks too close to the 2017 result for comfort.  But it's really important to remember that Panelbase are typically the least SNP-friendly pollster, and that YouGov tend to report SNP vote shares that are a few percentage points higher.  Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean that Panelbase are wrong or that YouGov are right, but we can't possibly know the answer to that until election night.  Until then what matters is the trend, and we're entitled to a sigh of relief that there's no clear trend against the SNP in this bang-up-to-date poll.  Even if Panelbase are absolutely correct, the SNP would gain Stirling from the Tories and win most of Labour's seats.  The Lib Dems must also be alarmed to see their vote gradually drift closer to the 7% they received last time.

Panelbase agree with YouGov that there's been a drop in support for Yes, but the change is much more modest in the Panelbase poll.  That leads me to wonder if YouGov have slightly exaggerated the trend due to the margin of error or some other factor.  We'll have to wait for future polls to know for sure.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47% (-2)
No 53% (+2)

In fact this means that Panelbase are saying that the recent Yes surge has not been fully reversed - if it had been, the Yes vote would be back to somewhere in the region of 43-45%.


  1. "Least SNP friendly." It sounds like you are clutching at straws now James.

    I hope that I am wrong on that score.

    As for the Indy vote returns well that doesn't surprise me when the SNP cant even mention the word Indy in their election literature. If they arent selling the concept then nobody is James. It is not surprising in that context that support for Independence will drop eventually.

    I probably just upset the SNP sycophants but I don't care. I refuse to impersonate an ostrich.

    1. "It sounds like you are clutching at straws now James."

      That's an unnecessary and unwarranted comment, and I categorically refute it. If you check the archives of this blog, I have pointed out repeatedly over a long period of time that Panelbase have been producing much lower SNP figures than YouGov. I keep saying that for the simple and obvious reason that it's true and sticks out like a sore thumb. If you want to undermine this blogpost, you'll have to come up with a much better objection than that.

    2. Don't know which poll is the more accurate. 47% for independence but 39% for the SNP seems a wee bit out but who knows. However, turnout on the day will be as much a factor as anything. Hope Thursday weather is better than today.

      On literature, SNP 4 page pamphlet through my door yesterday for North Ayrshire had no problem mentioning independence but I can't talk for your constituency.

    3. I did say that I hope I am wrong but you haven't produced anything to change my opinion that this coming Thursday is going to be a disaster for SNP. The YouGov figures don't give me much comfort either. But again I hope I am wrong.

      I will disagree with you on it being unnecessary and an unwarranted comment.I have been keeping a daily eye on this site James and I know your opinions about Panelbase and YouGov

      I am here to give a reality check. Again I hope I am wrong James but I have a nasty feeling in my gut that I wont be from the pools that I have seen. Even you have to admit that there has been no apparent Brexit boost for the SNP in this election at least or for the Yes Indy vote. I think it is incumbent to ask the questions - WHY?

      I don't just hope these Pollsters are wrong but way wrong and that Panelbase and YouGov have severely underestimated the SNP vote and the Indy. You haven't convinced me that they haven't James.

    4. I haven't produced anything to suggest the election isn't going to be a disaster for the SNP - apart from two opinion polls suggesting they're on course for significant gains?

      You're being incredibly silly. And that's putting it politely.

    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    6. Every time Nicola is interviewed she mentions Scottish independence.

  2. 40 seats and 40% of the vote is a good result for the SNP 45 seats and low 40s % of the vote is a great results as it would suggest that the SNPs opposition to Brexit and SP right to have a referendum is backed by a significant amount of the population.
    A result just a bit better than 2017 won't have the same impact .It under 40 seats and 40% of the vote will be an ok result .
    I'm still hopeful that You Gov are closer to the truth and that's how it feels on the ground

  3. How can anyone make such ludicrous comments based on opinion polls. Mr More, have you been out there knocking on doors. I have and I'm no expert. What I detect is a hatred of Tory policies and Boris Johnston. This election isn't about our Independence, its about Brexit.

    Labour votes are coming to the SNP because of Johnston. They are not independence supporters but will be if the Tories win.

    IMO Independence is on hold. Wait and see.

    1. He's been reading too much Wings rubbish, Campbell's just one vile blogger from Bath with a hatred of the FM posting his negative drivel day after day for his own purposes
      Independence will come when the people want it, no politician can force it on them, and if the FM appeared to be doing that the proposition would definitely fail

    2. I base my comments in part on people who were SNP voters but wont be voting on Thursday. I will be putting a peg over my nose on Thursday and voting SNP because for me and others they have just become a Stop Brexit Party

    3. Oh and I can see the SNPs sycophantic Thought Police have arrived already.

    4. The SNP has always been elected on an independence vote.

  4. Things that never happened #793:
    "..people who were SNP voters but won't be voting on Thursday."

  5. Whilst I canvass for Labour and will vote for the party in my North East (Co. Durham) constituency, the Labour vote in Scotland has moved decisively to the SNP since 2017, as can be seen in the polls, helped massively by our Richard Leonard who is a bit of a wet dishcloth tbh. I'm happy enough with this because I know there is no way the SNP would vote for a Tory queens speech.
    Very solid performances from Sturgeon in the face of some vitriolic hatred from the media, and there does appear to be many staunchly left voices within the SNP MP ranks- that Mari Black lass in Glasgow is absolutely outstanding- also some pretty decent MSPs they've got too.

    Hopefully the SNP will attract enough "Labour votes" to overcome what appears to be, according to these up to date opinion polls, a fairly (and despite everything that has gone on, amazingly) resilient Tory vote in these Scottish seats- which is something I'm actually very concerned with, considering it was the Scottish Tory seats which let May squeak in and form the arrangement with the DUP. My hunch for Scotland- Labour will drop back to 2, the LibDems will loose the Caithness/Far North seat back to the SNP but Swinson will sneak back in in East Dumbarton (unfortunately). For the Tory held Scottish seats I wouldn't like to say, these are the ones all the eyes and ears will be on, quite pivotal in the sense they could decide whether the Tories get an overall majority.

    This election will be an absolute nail biter.

    Really enjoy this site and reading the Scottish banter!

    1. Thanks for that anon. I have relations in Durham City who support Scottish indy.
      They often talk of coming to live in Scotland.
      If the shit hits the fan and Johnson gets in I think many will despair of the future.
      Independence I believe is coming and Scotland will become a beacon of what is possible for folk in England.
      We've just got to get there first!