Friday, December 13, 2019

Video: Reaction to Jo Swinson's defeat

Yes, I know I forgot to turn the lights on, but I'm much too tired to record the video again!



UPDATE: The final result of the general election in Scotland -

SNP 48 (+13)
Conservatives 6 (-7)
Liberal Democrats 4 (n/c)
Labour 1 (-6)

Of course the SNP will immediately reduce themselves to 47 by depriving Neale Hanvey of the whip, but hopefully common sense will prevail and that state of affairs won't last for too long.  If the people of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath think that Mr Hanvey is a fit and proper person to be their MP, it would be rather bizarre if the SNP conclude that he isn't even fit to be a party member.

There was a frustrating run of narrow defeats towards the end of the night that just barely spared the waters of Loch Ness from a frightening ordeal, but really, it was incredible how close the SNP came to gaining seats like West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine and Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - those weren't even on my radar a few weeks ago.  The failure to gain Moray and Banff & Buchan shouldn't have been a surprise, because the Leave vote was stronger in those two seats and the outcome tonight is linked to the trend in Leave areas south of the border.

The fact that the Liberal Democrats delivered the goods in four of the five seats they were competing for makes Jo Swinson's defeat look like a very personal one.  If you lose your seat for the specific reason that your own constituents dislike you as a person, it's safe to assume you don't have much of a future as party leader.  I would guess it's only a matter of hours before she formally resigns.  The Lib Dems must wish that Vince Cable had stayed on for a few more months.  Ironically, if he had, Jo Swinson herself might still be an MP.

That said, it's blindingly obvious that the Lib Dems owe their narrow gain in North-East Fife to a massive anti-SNP tactical vote by Tory supporters.  There was a very clear correlation between the drop in the Tory vote and the increase in the Lib Dem vote.

The overall Scottish outcome will hopefully kill forever the idea that the SNP cannot confront the electorate with the issue of independence if they want to win elections.  They shied away from making the case in 2017, but went in all guns blazing in 2019, and the contrast between the two results tells us all we need to know.  Safety-first and blandness don't inspire anyone.

Nicola Sturgeon has really got to use the tremendous moral mandate she now has to push relentlessly for an independence referendum to actually take place - a Westminster veto simply can't be accepted, even tacitly.  In the long run it's not defeats you rue - it's squandered opportunities at moments of triumph, and we can't afford to let this opportunity slip through our fingers.

With three results to go, it looks arithmetically certain that the SNP's share of the popular vote in Scotland (45%) is going to slightly exceed the Tories' share of the UK vote (currently 43.6%).  I'm sure that point will be made repeatedly, because if Johnson is claiming a mandate to deliver Brexit on his terms, it's very hard to see how the SNP don't have a watertight mandate to hold an independence referendum.

71 comments:

  1. As someone who was doubtful and even pessimistic over the past few weeks, this really is a tremendous result.

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  2. Now I told you about Swinson's shoogly peg James

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  3. An stunning victory for the republicans in Northern Ireland. History is made.

    The UK is breaking apart.

    Seats
    50% Republican
    44% Unionist
    6% Neutral

    Now that Johnson has a majority so can deliver the full backstop - even allow NI to remain completely in the EU - we can expect this to be demanded as part of any new UK-EU trade deal.

    Certainly, it can't be said that NI should be part of the UK as voters want that. Unionists have been rejected at all election levels now.

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    1. Exactly right, Scottish Skier. Together the north of Ireland and Scotland are about to end the sick joke called the united kingdom. Oh, and liar Johnson's arrogance and ignorance will help too.

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  4. The SNP vote share is key.

    If you want to argue in court about who has a mandate for what, the SNP's wipes the floor with Johnson's pathetic %MPs.

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  5. English nationalists win England. Scottish nationalists sweep Scotland.

    Irish republicans win an historic victory in NI.

    Scotland and NI voted in landslides to remain in the EU, while England wants to leave.

    This will go down in history as the last UK election.

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  6. Hmm... SNP exit poll result was 55% (1000s of votes recorder, statistically highly accurate), actual vote share 45%. Must be the postal votes (not sampled) that swung it again!! Rough calculation suggests that the non-SNP averaged 66% to 33%.

    The only conclusion there must be some kind of hidden hand at work here. If we do not ban postal votes in indyref2 we can look forward to another 45% result. It is no coincidence I feel that there was no exit poll at indyref1. I was surprised to see one for this election in Scotland.

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    1. Exit poll predicted 55 seats, not 55%.

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    2. Exit poll had a big margin of error for Scotland. Also postal votes are hugely biassed towards the Tories because it's mostly old people who have postal votes and old people vote Conservative.

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  7. I agree with you Schottischer Skifahrer, that there is enough seperate identity going on here and that there's no putting the UK back together again, Ireland should look at how best they can unite within EU. Scotland should be allowed to go its own way now thus being independent and apply to join EU too. And England and Wales can walk this risky path they've chosen without imposing the will of the electorate of England and Wales onto Scotland and Ireland. It's about what is democratically right now and yes I too believe this will be the last UK election that Scotland and Northern Ireland will take part in

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  8. I like that President Jamez is looking sinister in the dark.

    His message - "Is much later than you think".

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  9. Wales has shown they're happy to go along with the English nationalist project yet again.

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  10. No excuses now, the mandate has been clearly given. Boris will say no to a section 30 and it will have to be decided in the courts. so probably need to get the ball rolling within the first few weeks of the new year.

    If we don't have an Indyref in 2020 it won't because of anything England does, it will because the Scot Gov dithered for too long.

    Personally i don't think they will, Sturgeon knows that if she does not quickly show the path to an indyref people will quickly turn against her.

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  11. The Tories leaflets made it a referendum on Independence and they were defeated. The results were beyond what I had hoped would happen considering the many marginals were on a knife-edge. Sad about Stephen Gethins. Heather Anderson will replace Alyn Smith went he leaves his European Parliament seat for the short period.

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    1. Still, sounds as though Gethins would be a good candidate for the first Holyrood by-election. Maybe its better to have most of the "officer material" types in Edinburgh rather than London.

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    2. Tory leaflets clearly stated ON THURSDAY YOU CAN STOP INDYREF2
      They got 25% to SNPs 45%.
      A clear pro-indyref mandate only deniable by rabid unionists.
      Historically we were always going to end up here.
      If Johnson thinks he can do Brexit on 43% his jaiket is on a shoogly peg legally.
      This is where real Democrats need to break cover and back the claim of right of the Scottish people to exercise their moral right to decide their own future.
      We'll soon find out who our friends are.

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    3. Meant to say BUT DENY US INDYREF2 when we voted for it.
      [we're aw a wee bit tired Eh!]

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    4. Heather Anderson never said a word about going to Europe when were campaigning together over the past few weeks. And I don't think she's next on the MEP list.

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  12. Just a reminder you Jocko fascist Nat sis (JFNS) you need over 50% in a referendum. You lost the Jocko referendum and the EU referendum. We are leaving the EU and all your knee crawling, will not change that. The only sad moment for me was Dennis Skinner losing his seat. The only man that does not crawl to the Lords.

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    1. The bitterness in your insult betrays your pain. We're winning, you're losing, and we have demographics on our side.

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    2. You lost the election. Accept the will of the people.

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    3. The one needed for a mandate to proceed with brexit.

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    4. The mandate was the UK referendum 2016.

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    5. 55.5% for just voted for 100% pro-remain parties. Then we have those that voted for EUref2.

      You lost. Again. Get over it.

      Why don't you try persuading people of the merits of brexit instead of trying to force it on them? You might have more success at the ballot box.

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  13. Yet another mandate for indyref2

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  14. Just heard on the BEEB, the Tories have won "right across Britain".

    I have come to the conclusion that the "Britain" usually referenced by the media and politicians in our big southern neighbour, is "Roman Britain" which contains neither Scotland nor Ireland (north or south).

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    1. What took you so long to come to this conclusion..?

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  15. Postal votes still an issue?

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    1. Anecdotal only but weren't the postals down in quantity..?

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  16. Wingsy sez:
    "The time for playing nicey-nicey softball by the Marquess of Queensberry rules – if you’ll forgive the mixed sporting metaphor – is over. The SNP needs to get the gloves off and start punching fast, because the final round is approaching."

    James, ye're punchin, ye statto swot! Punchin!

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    1. SNP should have done a deal with the Tories, Brexit for indyref2.

      UK wouldn't have a large Tory majority and we'd be heading for an indyref with every chance of winning, and the potential for a smooth transition to remain in the EU as an independent nation.

      Instead we have no referendum and no leverage, we'll be outside the EU, stuck in the UK with a Tory majority for who knows how long as Labour have probably lost GE 2024 already.

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    2. The Tories were not offering a deal, and for obvious reasons.

      They wanted a big majority through a general election. There was zero reason to risk that by bargaining.

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  17. I am eating humble pie today as the SNP did way better than I thought they would. I am also ashamed to be from Moray today after they voted for a Fascist by proxy.

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    1. Being from Elgin, I am sorry but not surprised by the Moray result. Apart from the fishing community who seem to have forgotten who sold them out in the first place, we have thousands of military and ex-miltary in the constituency, and the Labour and Liberal supporters vote Conservative. It was always a miracle that the SNP manage to gain Westminster and Holyrood seats here. Virtually every local person must have been voting SNP.

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    2. Close thing. Brave try. Head up. Keep fighting.

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    3. Douglas Ross is just there to get as much money into his own bank account as he possibly can and he is pretty blatant about it and folk still vote for him.

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  18. 100% - 45% = 55%. A mandate to leave the corrupt Mafia EU.

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    1. 55.5% precisely you mean.

      Is the vote share won by 100% pro-EU parties in yesterday's election in Scotland.

      There is no mandate for a Scotland leaving the EU now.

      Not when the brexiters have lost 4 times in a row (Scottish election, EU referendum, EU elections, UK elections).

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  19. "They shied away from making the case in 2017, but went in all guns blazing in 2019"?

    What do you mean James? They continually said it wasn't about Independence???

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    1. I didn't hear them say that once.

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    2. The clear message was "Stop Brexit" ... I don't understand how you can take 'guns blazing' for Independence from that?

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    3. I don't recall ever hearing the SNP say election had nothing to do with indy.

      The message was loud and clear to me that it was about Scots stopping brexit with an SNP vote, and if that failed, then an indyref it absolutely must be. 'Scotland's future in Scotland's hands'.

      Only a complete fucking prize idiot of the highest degree would ever think a vote for the SNP wasn't at least in some way related to a push for independence.

      Jeez, even the Tories were bright enough to figure that out; their leaflets talked of nothing else.

      I have a whole pile of stuff from unionists making it absolutely clear that a vote for the SNP was a vote for indy. There was never any doubt in the minds of the electorate; unionists made sure of that.

      If there is ever a court case, the SNP can produce all this for the judges. Boris et al. making sure everyone knew a vote for the SNP was a vote for iref2 etc.

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    4. "Stop Brexit" was one of three or four clear messages. Independence was front and centre in the campaign.

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  20. The EU have made an announcement that they are looking forward to Scotland becoming their 28th member

    They'll be telling Boris Johnson the same thing and he'll cave just like he did over Northern Ireland or the EU will paralyse England, but nicely

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  21. Tories quite rightly elated down south. In Scotland every Tory leaflet, and there were lots of them, said only one thing. Vote Tory to stop Indy 2.

    It worked in 2017 but voters had 2 years of more Tory austerity and saw through the mist.

    Indy ref 2 does not mean Independence, it is the democratic right for a nation to decide its own future.

    Johnston sees Scotland as nothing more than a region of the UK. He needs to be telt.

    I listened to his speech outside Downing Street.

    Let's see if he stops Universal Credit, let's see if money is pumped into the NHS.

    He made promises beyond Brexit that will come back and bite him on the bum.

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    1. It was pretty stupid to produce a shit load of leaflets saying an SNP vote = indyref2 if you later plan to try and argue to a Scottish judge that's not the case.

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  22. Nicola Sturgeon's about to make sure Boris Johnson's Christmas isn't as jolly as he might want
    He can't *Get Brexit done* without EU co-operation unless he's serious about plunging the UK into crazy land, and if or when he does he'll have declared England a dictatorship
    Good luck finding allies when he does that
    Brexit England think they're celebrating today because the poor sods who were conned into voting for this can't see what's coming at them right around the corner tomorrow with the EU Scotland and Northern Ireland about to come down on them like a ton of bricks
    England will hate Scotland even more than it does already and will be screaming for Scotland to leave, and the Unionist politicians will struggle to cope because how do you tell the English nation that Scotland has been subsidising them for the last fifty years when you've been telling them the opposite for the same length of time
    England think they're celebrating some kind of new VE day but in reality they're in the crapper

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    1. I think the Irish with their veto will be sympathetic to Scotland's case; they've been in the receiving end of England's 'mother of all parliaments' (cough) fascist guns when they voted democratically for independence.

      Also all the former soviet colonies; they know what it's like to have a big, bullying dictatorship denying you the right to free democracy.

      Then there's the fact that England wants to set itself up as a cheap undercutting rival to its former friends on the continent, including being racist towards their citizens, forcing them to leave for fear of their futures.

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  23. Tories lost a shit load of votes; over 65,000 down on 2017.

    Johnson's open racist hatred of Scots and his threats to take away their vote has cost him dearly.

    It's probably broken the union; if he'd agreed to a Section 30, he may well have held his Tory seats in Scotland. 'I'll take your vote away from you jock scum' is hardly a winner.

    He is like a giant, pea-brained racist union wrecking ball.

    He's taken out Ruth Davidson - darling of BBC Scotland - and all the moderate unionist British Tories.

    He's taken out Nigel Dodds and the DUP handing an unprecedented victory to the republicans. It's an earthquake of a result which sees the red saltire being torn from the jack.

    And he's trashed all the gains the Tories made in Scotland in 2017, handing a new epic landlslide to the Scottish nationalists, allowing them to come back with a historic victory after 2017's setback, winning a majority and mandate (% share and seats) which utterly dwarfs his own.

    All this in his first 6 months of being 'minister for the union'.

    He's well on track for bringing the UK to an end by next summer.

    Sturgeon just can't compete with his UK breaking skills.

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  24. Scottish pollsters (final polls) were bang on for Lab and Lib on average.

    Overestimated Con by 3% and underestimated SNP by the same.

    Maybe in part for the reasons I've talked about; the false recall problems for 2017 where SNP turnout was low and Tory high.

    Panelbase get the wooden spoon for 39% SNP, with Yougov MRP next worst at 41%.

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  25. Scottish Skier,

    Well, that just about sums it up.

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    1. https://www.euronews.com/2019/12/13/nationalists-win-big-in-northern-ireland-prompting-calls-for-border-poll

      "The great irony of all of this is that for decades unionists have looked over their shoulders and decided that Irish nationalists were the great threat ... but actually it's English nationalism," Mike Nesbitt, former leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, told the BBC.

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  26. Boris the Bold Great Leader.December 13, 2019 at 7:14 PM

    There will no indyref 2. The UK will leave the EU on 31 January 2020. It will be the law. So Scottie and Paddie, get it right up ye.

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    1. Aks yourself who makes law who changes law who revises law who adds amendements to law and lastly if any law were final we'd still be hanging people for stealing a loaf of bread

      Leaving the EU on the 31st January is a slogan, it isn't up to Johnson and never was, and no deal now or ever can be reached without the co-operation of the EU who you may not have noticed just congratulated Scotland's First Minister and her party on her overwhelming victory and look forward to Scotland being the newest and 28th member of the EU

      Disturbing isn't it, but democracy often is for those who oppose it

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    2. That's the second time you have mentioned that, can you provide a link to this statement please, cant see any mention of it in the list of their press releases:
      https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/

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  27. Ok, so Bozo didn't actually say no then. And he didn't actually say he would say no before either, just implied / threatened it.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1205552590576066561

    Boris Johnson has spoken to Nicola Sturgeon on the phone; spokesman says the PM "reiterated his unwavering commitment to strengthening the union" and "made clear how he remained opposed to a second independence referendum". He said the 2014 result should be respected

    Johnson would be wise to let democracy decide things. The moment you take away the right of people to freely vote, is the moment you choose to unleash violence upon them, for you will need to do that if you take away their freedom. Ask any dictatorship; these can only ever survive by violent repression. There has never been a case in history where taking away the right of people to choose their government freely has ended well. Tempting as it might be to simply refuse a Section 30 in the face of losing every election, you will need to put on that swastika armband and black jackboots if you do choose that path.

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    1. You are right the Scottish people did vote during 2014. The British people did vote to leave the EU during 2016. The Labour Party has shown no respect for those who voted to leave the EU and the Nat sis have never shown respect for the Scots who wish to remain in the UK Union. You cannot keep having a ballot every week until you win. The fact is you Nat sis hate the Scottish Unionist community.

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    2. If the Scottish people are unhappy with the SNP's proposals for iref2, they can vote accordingly.

      It's only their opinion that matters.

      They spoke again yesterday. Seems they're not overly displeased with the SNP.

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    3. Your missing the fact that according to polling Scotland's gone once the UK leaves the EU, so why make things easier?

      He will say No, which of course is what his party want him to say, and put all the pressure on the Scot Gov to deliver on their mandate. If they manage to do so then nothing lost, Scotland was going anyhow. If not then see what happened to May as an example of what happens when you not deliver on your mandate.

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    4. Well, we hate you. Others we hope to persuade.

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  28. "That said, it's blindingly obvious that the Lib Dems owe their narrow gain in North-East Fife to a massive anti-SNP tactical vote by Tory supporters. There was a very clear correlation between the drop in the Tory vote and the increase in the Lib Dem vote."

    James, as a Fife NE voter, the detail is even more interesting. Not only did the Tory vote decline by over 11%, so did Labour, by almost 6%. So, where did those Unionist-supporting votes go, assuming most of the change is due to tactical voting? Lib Dems increased by just over 10%, but Stephen Gethins' vote increased too, by over 7%.

    Scotland in Union tried and failed to influence the anti-SNP tactical vote throughout Scotland, with one exception. Even in the seat, where they appeared to have "won", 7% of previous supporters of unionist parties decided to vote tactically for the SNP candidate.

    Let that sink in, for a minute. Dare they try t hat again, when a 5% swing on a 45% starting baseline gives us a win in IndyRef2?

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  29. When I annoyed you a few times by saying Jo Swinson was in trouble it was because it's my constituency and I could see and hear what was happening every day although truth be told it was closer than I thought it would be, I was reasonable sure of a close win but you couldn't come closer than what we did

    Very much of the vote was a young vote and also a revenge vote for John Nicolson, many people did not forgive the Lib Dem campaign waged against him last time, it was pretty vile

    The campaign for Independence will now include a boost from the young vote as well with the Labour student youth promising to swing behind the SNP and back Independence because they now see the Corbyn Nirvana of socialism they were hoping for cannot be achieved in the way they wanted now that the this set of far right Tories have taken control of England

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  30. Share prices up substancialy. Stagecoach shares up 18%.

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  31. Poor wee Jock Nat sis all gone tae bed in sorrow, with their empty Buckie bottles at their bedside. Must be difficult for you knowing the Frogs and Germans will not be running Scotland after 31 January 2020.
    Boris to make it a national freedom holiday.

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    1. All by yersel again last night then GWC?

      We were aw oot celebrating Sturgeon's...how did Johnson describe it?...'overwhelming victory'. Aye, those were the words he used I believe.

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    2. Well actually I was out with some Unionists and a Nat si when I posted. Even the Nat si had to admit it was a UK election and the referendum was also UK wide. I asked the Nat si if he was prepared to lose his job for independence while the elites collected their salaries. No reply.

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    3. But you must have been disappointed with your performance in Dunbotherin & Scumflats East? The electorate delivered a stinging rebuke.

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    4. Skier, meet you in the Sir John Moore this afternoon. Bring your Mrs. Spoke to a brexiteer guy from Bishopbriggs and he voted for the Nat sis to get rid of Swinson.

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  32. The main consolation to being under 50 seats is that Nessie was spared the indignity of having to suffer an affront to her dignity.

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