Tuesday, December 10, 2019

It's Tuesday, so it must be MRP day

If memory serves me right, YouGov's projection model was updated every day during the 2017 general election campaign, but this time we've only seen one set of figures so far and the next update will be at 10pm tonight.  It'll be a nerve-wracking moment, because the most recent full-scale Scottish poll was completed on Friday, and four days is an eternity at the end of a campaign.  Who knows what might have changed.  Remember that the rigged BBC debate took place on Friday evening.

In the meantime, we already have the updated MRP figures from Remain United, although I'm not sure how credible their projection is for Scotland, because they seem to have based their calculations on a single GB-wide ComRes poll and a few Deltapoll constituency polls in England.  On the face of it, that means the Scottish projection is derived purely from a subsample (albeit a larger than usual one), and thus shouldn't be regarded as reliable.  However, for what little it's worth, the numbers are favourable for the SNP...

Seats projection (Remain United):

Conservatives 340
Labour 233
SNP 45
Liberal Democrats 11
DUP 10
Sinn Fein 6
SDLP 2
APNI 2
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1

There are also three seats (Aberdeen South, Angus and  Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock) where the SNP are estimated to be just behind the Conservatives and could win with the help of a small amount of tactical voting.

*  *  *

I have three new constituency previews in today's edition of The National - this time it's Edinburgh South, Motherwell & Wishaw and Midlothian.

44 comments:

  1. Unfortunately I think Aberdeen South is a lost cause. The anti SNP onslaught has been relentless and I get the impression the anti SNP sentiment has hardened in the area with a sizeable section of the voters. Not helped by the weak campaign in the area by the SNP. Another 3 leaflets from the Tories through the door today and not one from the SNP and that's pretty typical of the campaign. Ross Thomson being replaced has not helped either.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 3 leaflets in one day is a bit desperation stakes isn't it?

      I've had two from the Tories in the whole campaign, 3 SNP and one Green. Nothing from Labour or the Liberals. Labour a bit of surprise, they held this seat until 2015. Still I suppose I could get a deluge in the next two days.

      All the postal votes are away though so leaving it all to the end seems a bit pointless.

      To be honest I think people just want to vote and get on with Christmas.

      Delete
    2. I wonder what Aberdeen FC supporters think about being more unionist than Rangers supporters? Probably following the lead of their newly unionist supporter Stuart Campbell.

      Delete
  2. These projections for Northern Ireland do not seem credible to me ...


    Good luck to SNP, from a Brazilian friend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's a very good point, actually - they add up to 20. I didn't spot that.

      Delete
    2. The Alliance party seats are if there is tactical voting - Antrim South and Down North, same as in the Latest Lucid talk poll which gives as its none tactical voting:

      DUP: 10
      SF: 6
      SDLP: 2

      Delete
  3. There is absolutely no way the Alliance party are taking two seats in the North of Ireland .They have an outside chance of taking Belfast East but it is a long shot

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And the 10-seat DUP is highly unlikely ...

      Delete
    2. I have a thing about Emma Little-Pengelly in uniform.

      Delete
    3. Well she will have lots of time to fulfill your fantasies come Friday as she will be on the broo and a good chance Nigel Dodds will be joining her .Sinn Fein seem very confident of taking Belfast North

      Delete
    4. Unionists losing Scotland and N. Ireland isn't particularly far fetched.

      Hardly a surprise if the English nationalists are winning in England.

      Delete
    5. I had rumours about your little pengelly, GWC, but didn;t realise they were true!

      Delete
    6. I always felt sorry for Little Pengelly in Oliver Twist.

      Delete
  4. some hints in this tweet https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1204473686985789440

    Seems to suggest SNP will do ok and Swinson might be in trouble

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry I didn't see your post before I posted the same. Looking good if the source is reliable -he worked for YouGov in the past.

      Delete
  5. Preparations beginning for the break up of the UK. Not much point in voting unionist when the English don't want you.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50733840

    UK ports 'preparing to host EU customs checks

    The shipping industry is drawing up plans for EU border checks in Britain for trade bound for Northern Ireland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Skier I use my Scottish bus pass as ID on the ferry to Belfast. I have shown it on the Enterprise train to Dublin on three occasions. The Irish border will not change. The usual criminal cross border transactions will carry on as normal. All vehicle registrations are noted on travel on the ferry in both directions. Nothing will change. You Nat sis have tried every trick in the book to avoid brexit mainly because deep down you are a fascist lot who hate losing a vote. I checked out that Pengelly and she is a bit of a looker. I would give her more than a vote.

      Delete
    2. The DUP seem to be of a different opinion to you.

      Delete
    3. GWC it's not an Irish border it's a British border which was placed on the island against the will of the majority of Irish people.
      25k British troops couldn't secure it hence the Good Friday Agreement .

      Delete
    4. The British border will be down the Irish Sea shortly.

      There is absolutely no point in voting unionist in N. Ireland if the English Tories are handing NI to Eire and the EU. How would that work? A DUP-Labour Alliance? Labour are historically pro-reunification, with the SDLP their sister party.

      N. Irish unionists are being dumped. It's over.

      The English will never sacrifice their own economy for NI.

      Delete
    5. In what respect? I do not know their opinion except they do not want an Irish language Catholic United Ireland.

      Delete
    6. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10518338/arlene-foster-boris-johnson-irish-sea-border/

      D-UP IN ARMS Furious Arlene Foster lashes Boris Johnson for reneging on promise not to put up Irish Sea border

      Seems clear enough tae me.

      Delete
    7. From the Sun, must be accurately true!

      Delete
  6. Random Totty From Freedom SquareDecember 10, 2019 at 8:25 PM

    I think you are over-influenced by brunettes. I'm not sure that there could be any on-screen chemistry between us.

    ReplyDelete
  7. SNP will win Angus,Word on the Street.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If I were to put a bet on, it would be on Stirling, Ayr Carrick& Cummnock, Ochil&S.Perthshire and Angus as the 4 gains. Anything more a bonus!

      Delete
    2. East Renfrewshire voted heavily remain I wouldn't be surprised to see that fall .

      Delete
  8. A hint of what the Yougov has in store:

    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1204473686985789440

    ReplyDelete
  9. Of course is perfectly possible that it ends up with the DUP holding the balance of power again. If that was the case they would never put Corbyn in number 10 nor Johnson with his deal as it is, so we could be heading back to the polls pretty sharpish.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Breakdown of the Focaldata MRP seat projection for Scotland, Jo Swinson only 1% ahead as well!
    SNP 41
    Con 10
    Lab: 4
    LD: 3
    Ind: 1

    ReplyDelete
  11. Tories down to 339 in England.

    That's a bit squeaky bum. Heading for John Major territory.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SNP also down two on the last prediction to 41. Squeaky bum time for people who're anxious of a repeat of 2017.

      Of course in 2017, the SNP were even higher than this in the final Yougov projection. They had 44. Squeaky bum time indeed.

      Delete
    2. 339 in GB - that figure includes Scotland and Wales.

      Delete
    3. Erm, the SNP won an epic landslide in 2017. Took 6/10 seats.

      Not that it mattered as Westminster seats are not important for indy. So the SNP could lose them all and that wouldn't change anything.

      International law on self determination means it can only ever be Holyrood that legislates here, just like in 2014 when Labour had 41/59 Scots Westminster MPs and the SNP just 6.

      Delete
    4. 41 seats would be 69.5% of them.

      OMG. That's an earth shattering landslide of historic proportions.

      Has a British party ever achieved that at Westminster?

      Delete
    5. No the poll shows all the seats being won in England Wales and Scotland (GB) so my statement is correct. Yours that 'Tories down to 339 in England.' is factually incorrect.

      Delete
    6. 339 = 52% That's just totally shit by comparison.

      And 17% of seats for the Tories in Scotland would be a mandate for jack shit.

      Delete
    7. 339 includes NI too.

      I simply meant that the Tories, a party (registered) in England, are down to 339 now.

      Delete
    8. Keep telling yourself that, Scottish Skier. The media are going to take all your positive spin and feed it into the meat grinder.

      A lot of these SNP gains are so close we can't tell if they'll even materialise, or if it will be a couple of SNP gains offset by losses elsewhere. And even if the SNP do end up on 41 seats, it will be successfully spun as a disappointing result for a party that was expecting to be pushing 50 seats just a few weeks ago - just exactly like that "epic landslide" of 2017 did nothing but move independence further away.

      Delete
    9. Exactly. I wish the breathless hysterical posters would calm down and stop their drama queen shrieking.
      Especially if they are wearing strange shirts.

      Delete
    10. 41 seats and 41% of the vote would be a good result for the SNP .An election where they excluded from TV debates and equal coverage in the media.
      No matter how the Unionist try to spin it 2017 was peak Yoon .The Unionist parties will have lost seats and votes .A rejection of No referendum s

      Delete
    11. It'd be decent enough but a little disappointing.

      I genuinely thought the SNP would have been winning approximately 50 seats this election.

      Delete