Wednesday, November 27, 2019

MRP analysis shows SNP on course for a net gain of nine seats

The pro-Remain group Best for Britain have published a new seats projection based on an MRP analysis of a large number of polling interviews - similar to the method YouGov used in 2017, and that proved to be more accurate than conventional polling results.  The headline figures aren't surprising at all -

Conservatives 366
Labour 199
SNP 44
Liberal Democrats 17
Plaid Cymru 4
Greens 1

But what's very surprising are the individual seat projections for Scotland, some of which are much better for the SNP than expected, and some of which are much worse. For example, Labour are shown as being slightly ahead in Glasgow North-East. That doesn't necessarily mean that they're projected to win the seat, just that it's too close to call, but if that's typical of what's happening in Glasgow it would be very concerning. On anything even approaching a uniform swing, Glasgow North-East ought to be an easy SNP gain. But on the other hand, the SNP are shown as being fractionally ahead of the Tories in Ochil & South Perthshire, and only slightly behind them in the likes of Banff & Buchan and Gordon. Those are better results than you'd expect if the Scottish Tories really are back up to the high 20s - although admittedly the data is probably skewed by the long spell covered by the fieldwork. But the dates can't explain why the SNP appear to be virtually level-pegging with Jo Swinson in East Dunbartonshire - that's the most striking finding of the lot.

I'm not sure whether this should cause us to reevaluate our assumptions completely, or whether it's just dud data or dud methodology. I'll be interested to see what YouGov's own analysis shows.

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  1. My mother lives in Milngavie in East Dunbartonshire and recently commented that Jo Swinson is not popular there. We have all read comments about her variable accent, living in England, and the "head girl" persona. However, I suspect that being strongly against both independence and Brexit, far from being a unique selling point, simply manages to rile both camps.

  2. Didn't I tell you James, Swinsons seat is shoogly just like the peg for her coat

  3. Spoken like a true Scot Nat - by the sound it. And just how many people in Milngavie has your mother spoken to? A dozen? Two dozen? What kind of a survey is that? I have no desire for Jo Swinson to win this seat (especially as I live in it) but claims that your mother knows how the whole of Milngavie feels about the woman are just plainly ridiculous. She was strongly against so-called independence in 2017 and won the seat. She was strongly in favour of staying in the EU in 2017 and won the seat. There are several factors which mean that Jo Swinson is likely to keep this seat. Firstly the local Lib Dems know how to campain effectively and the local SNP haven't a clue. Secondly the former SNP MP for the constituency (John Nicolson) obviously feels the SNP have no chance. He's contesting a completely different seat. Thirdly the SNP have put up a candidate who is a political novice. Their big guns have kept totally away from the seat.
    So-called independence? Well, if you want to be ruled by unelected Brussels bureaucrats in so many areas of life it's hardly independence, is it.

    1. Are you the life and soul if every party you're invited too? Do people say "We must invite Happy Harry. He's such an adorable bundle of fun."?

    2. Nice to have a Brexit Party spokesman dropping by to give us some much-needed analysis of the race in East Dunbartonshire.

      Your point about John Nicolson is lazy and wrong. Based on the best available data a few months ago, it was a statement of the obvious that the SNP had a better chance of winning Ochil & South Perthshire than East Dunbartonshire, and that's presumably why he made the decision. But a lesser chance is not the same thing as no chance at all. The calculation has changed now anyway - the Tories have recovered and the Lib Dems have slipped back, so the two seats are now closer in terms of difficulty levels. Part of him must wish he'd stuck with East Dunbartonshire, where he'd already built up relationships with people.

    3. Brexit Party? Where on earth did you get that from? There isn't a Brexit Party candidate standing in East Dunbartonshire and even if there was that's not where my vote would go. So that rather suggests your powers of political analysis are in need of some improvement.
      "A lesser chance" is not the same as no chance". That's true. But if he thought he had any chance why would he not fight the seat he once claimed to be so attached to? And a lesser chance is not the same as no chance. But "no chance" seems like a more likely interpretation of his decision.

    4. "Where on earth did you get that from?"

      It was a joke, but I got it from your parrotting of the standard Faragist line about independence in the EU not being real independence. As for the rest of your comment...well, that's twelve seconds of my life I'll never get back.

    5. James,
      If you've been at all awake over the past few years you'd be well aware that it's not just Nigel Farage who has made that comment. And 'indepedence in the EU' is a mighty big contradiction if ever there was. A bit like 'independence in the UK'. There are actually a few nationalists who understand that being in the EU removes a heck of your independence. Just like being in the Union does.
      As for parroting, how about 'Vote SNP for a strong voice representing you' (Amy Callaghan's leaflet)
      Poor Amy was badly let down by whoever wrote her leaflets, wasn't she. A I said, she's a political novice. Presumably she just accepted that everthing in her leaflet was corect.
      According to the BBC:
      Lord Pentland said a statement on the leaflet was false in substance, materially inaccurate and defamatory.
      He said: "I don't consider it would be right for an official election leaflet which contains a prima facie defamatory statement to be distributed by the Royal Mail."
      Ruling in favour of Ms Swinson, Lord Pentland ordered the SNP and its candidate Amy Callaghan to pay Ms Swinson's costs.

    6. I understood Scotland's membership of the EU would be vetoed by Spain. It's rather good news if that's not true HC!

    7. Oh Highland Cathedral, where have you been all these years?

      If only you had made yourself available so we, the uninformed and unenlightened, might have worshipped at the altar of your wisdom. Enjoying droplets of your knowledge, like greedy bees sipping at flowers.

      Thrilled you've burst so volubly on to the stage of heated debate like Liberace at a concert in Las Vegas.

    8. I live in East Dunbartonshire and the Lib Dems only won it because of the filthy disgusting campaign they waged on John Nicolson round the doors, plus they spent more money than the whole SNP combined on it, up to four leaflets per day and were investigated by the police and as usual with Lib Dems the liars got away with it just like Carmichael did

      Spreading your wee Brexit party rant won't work because you lot are losing your deposits because Scotland wants nothing to do with folk like you and your extremist Nazi nonsense, we saw all that shit in the 1930s from a guy who talked exactly like Farage

  4. I can't see the large donations from fracking company bosses to her constituency office helping.

    1. Why not? £14,000, if that was the amount, goes a long way towards:
      Paying the rent,or
      Employing somebody to help her. (They need people to do the casework, organise volunteers, man (sorry, person) the phone, press the button on the printing machine, etc, etc.
      Who do you think organises the distribution of their leaflets "all year round, not just at election time" to quote a well-known phrase. Who do you think writes the stories for all these leaflets. I don't wish the Lib Dems any success but I have to acknowledge the strength of their organisation in East Dunbartonshire.

    2. As I mentioned before I stuck £20 on Amy Callaghan to take East Dunbarton .I don't live in the constituency but I know lots who do .It's purely anecdotal evidence and I admit a rational analysis based on the evidence and political history of the seat would suggest a comfortable hold for Swinson .There is just something about Swinson that puts people off the more people see her they more they dislike her .
      There is always a shock on election night and I got a hunch it maybe East Dunbarton

    3. Highland Cathedral is a favourite of mine.

      Composed by German musicians Ulrich Roever and Michael Korb in 1982 for a Highland games held in Germany, it really sums up what it is to be Scottish and European.

    4. Rocksie67
      You may be right. I don't particularly relish the idea of an SNP victory but in some ways I hope you are right. Elections are full of surprising results. Ms Swinson's success in East Dunbartonshire is not based on overwhelming popularity for her party. Her party does have a good local government base but it's not enough in itself to win the seat. But she plugs the tactical vote argument merclilessly and it regained her the seat in 2017 (plus a fall in the popularity of the SNP). She also does have a certain amount of personal popularity in the constituency. Is it wearing off? Maybe. Will the tactical vote work as well this time as in 2017? Maybe not. I see the SNP have avoided using the word 'referendum' on that election leaflet they've now been told to stop distributing.
      As for people being put off by Ms Swinson the more they see her there is very good evvidence of that nationally but I'm not sure it's true locally. Nick Clegg, after all, held his seat in 2015 even though his party almost disappeared from Westminster. He wasn't exactly popular nationally but he must have retained a certain amount of popularity in his seat. The same may be true of Ms Swinson. If, when I get up on 13th December, I hear Ms Swinson has lost her seat I will be very pleased but I'm not very optimistic.

    5. Swindon has lost nearly a 1/3 of her UK vote share since the early October Lib Dem peak. That fracking donation and the recent court case seems to have cost her dearly.

      As you say, she might hold on locally, but at what cost to the party?

    6. Highland Cathedral ,
      I know what it's like to have to fight against a national swing in a constituency somehow you have got make your individual seat unique. I think Jo Swinson national profile is working against her .I think there is obviously keep the Nats out vote but I now also think there is a get Swinson out vote too . Remember there are 7k Labour voters in the seat.
      I ve not been over there but Amy Callaghan seems to have the right attitude and is getting her name out there locally and on social media.
      I'm maybe totally wrong but I've just got a hunch that Swinson is in bother

    7. Jo Swinson lives in Chippenham England and sold her expenses paid for flat in Scotland four years ago and the people of East Dunbartonshire know it now except for the Tory voters who vote Lib Dem because they know the Tories can't win here, and the folk have since cottoned on to the homophobic campaign waged against John Nicolson by the Lib Dem door chappers to the elderly
      Swinson isn't even on the election literature, it's all Willie Rennie and only we can beat the SNP nonsense, Swinson like last time will only turn up here in the final week but by then it might just be too late this time, the TV debate showed her up

  5. Is there a source for their seat predictions across Scotland? Seat by seat rather than headline?


      enter a postcode in the constituency you want to look at

    2. I already looked at tacticalvote - they don't give predictions. In my ward, they simply say vote any of Green, Labour, Libdem, SNP to avoid Tory. i.e. based on stated position rather than stats from polls.
      Yougov, on the other hand, drill down into likely constituency results with some sort of error bar on their predictions.
      I can select a ward based on their truly horrible map, or type in a postcode.

  6. This spreadsheet has the "Best for Britain" data for all of the seats.

    SNP are well ahead in all of the other Glasgow seats. A lot of the SNP/Tory seats are very close.

    1. Thanks for the full link

      Glasgow North East is an odd one, but the MP there is fairly popular so who knows. Stirling is a comfortable lead as is Perth.

      Caithness and Sutherland is strange; SNP lead there with Tories 2nd(!)

      Overall voteshare (based on averaging the 59 seats)

      SNP 38.7
      CON 28.1
      LAB 20.4
      LD 11.1

      That's suspiciously close to Panelbase, which makes me think that they've used regression analysis on that poll.

    2. Simple averaging of the 59 results would be a little off because the two island group seats are much smaller than the other 57. Probably wouldn't make a significant difference, but worth bearing in mind.

    3. There's islands in Loch Lomond and near Fife too. There's nobody on them so your speaking a load of narvsi push.

  7. 75% of seats for the SNP would be a landslide of epic proportions. It would utterly dwarf the projected UK Tory 56% from the same model.

  8. Incidentally, increasing signs of the English labour vote picking up pace. Lib Dems down again with comres; maybe because of the fracking donation court case?


    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (-2)
    BREX: 5% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @SavantaComRes, 25 - 26 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 21 Nov

  9. Oh dear.

    Vandals attack Scottish government minister's office

    A Scottish government minister has said she is "deeply saddened" after her South Lanarkshire constituency office was vandalised.

    The words "SNP out" were spray-painted on the exterior walls of Aileen Campbell's office in Carluke.

    A window was also smashed in the attack which took place overnight on Tuesday.

    1. Sinn Fein IRA did this sort of thing and blamed Unionists.

    2. Me and my mate used to put up the tent. Get it?

  10. YouGov MRP published: Tory overall majority of 68.

    Scotland SNP 43, Con 11, Lab 2, LD 3

    Lab holds are Coatbridge and Edinburgh South

    SNP gain the five other Lab seats, Caithness from LD, Stirling and East Rens from Con

    Loads of seats are bawhair tight though.

  11. YouGov out.

    SNP Gain:

    Caithness TOSSUP
    East Lothian
    Glasgow NE
    East Renfrewshire

    Tory held seats are actually a little closer than I would have thought.

  12. Here's the data.!1334&authkey=!AHUShvooX0LbK6c

    Again here's the average share across the constituencies:

    SNP 40.9
    CON 26.9
    LAB 18.5
    LD 11.3

  13. Remainers making all the gains, with con and lab both down.

  14. It would be sad to see Rutherglen falling to a Nat si bigot.

    1. I feel on a pavement in Rutherglen and broke my wrist in 1993.

    2. Pity it wasn't your neck.

  15. Slightly off topic but might be related. Occurred to me that not heard much from either Keir Starmer or Emily Thornburry much which surprised me as they are both pro European /second ref and maybe not seen as quiet as left wing as other members of the Shadow cabinet, so you would think would be good people to encourage 'soft conservatives' and remainers to vote Labour. So a quick google search latter and it seems that they have both gone AWOL for the last couple of weeks:

    Could this be deliberate? Keep them off the airwves so they cannot make any mistakes in interviews etc and then roll them out for the last couple of weeks as fresh faces? Starmer in particular seems to of been sidelined, his last major appearance seems to of been in the infamous doctored footage a couple of weeks back

    Can't think of any other reason you would roll out Dianne Abbott more (who with the greatest respect to does not do well in interviews) than either of them.

  16. Aberdeen south will be an SNP gain

  17. Just an observation that at the weekend Kenny Farquharson the journo tweeted that the SNP were busing activists from Fife over to Glasgow. The reaction was "aye, that'll be right Kenny". Perhaps this forecast for Glasgow NE has more to it than we think and maybe sometimes - just sometimes - we should take Kenny more seriously even if we dont believe him?

    1. No, we should never take Kenny seriously. Even when he's right, it's usually by accident. On some level he probably still thinks Kezia Dugdale is the next First Minister.

  18. Called on mobile for Survation tonight, as much as she would say, sounded like it was on behalf of newspaper. She checked postcode (I'm in Edinburgh South), asked recall of Indyref, Brexit referendum and last GE then likelihood of voting in this GE, voting intention for it, Indyref2 and (heaven forbid...) another Brexit ref...