Saturday, November 16, 2019

Lib Dems enter the danger zone

There's no consistent trend in the GB-wide polls as far as the Tory v Labour battle is concerned - some have the Tories stretching away to a point where a large overall majority for Boris Johnson looks very hard to avoid, but others have the gap narrowing and leave open the possibility of a hung parliament.  But one trend that does seem relatively consistent is that the Lib Dems have dropped back since the start of the campaign.  Jo Swinson is entering a danger zone over the next couple of days - voters in England already seem to be concluding of their own accord that this is a traditional two-horse race, and if Tuesday night's rigged Johnson v Corbyn debate on ITV is given the go-ahead by the courts, that conclusion could be further reinforced.  Remain voters in England (except in seats that are clearly Lib Dem targets) may start to feel that Labour are the only game in town, and the Lib Dem vote could end up being severely squeezed.

On the face of it, that could be good news for the SNP in the five seats where the Lib Dems are their main opponents - but unfortunately the dynamics are a bit different in Scotland.  A lot of Jo Swinson's voters in East Dunbartonshire last time around were basically Tory supporters who weren't much bothered about her party label - they just voted for her because they were persuaded by nefarious means that she was the only candidate who could beat the SNP.  Maybe some of those people will be more discriminating this time due to Brexit - but I suspect the Lib Dems will retain a sizeable Tory tactical vote in those key constituencies.

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I've written another couple of constituency previews for today's edition of The National - this time it's Na h-Eileanan an Iar and Ross, Skye & Lochaber

47 comments:

  1. SNP at 43% in the latest YouGov subsample.

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    1. My current average, adding in the latest:
      45% SNP
      24% Con
      14% Lab
      11% Lib
      3% Brx
      2% Green

      Con seem to have maybe edged up a little as Brx pale into obscurity.

      I can't detect any notable change in SNP. Still solidly into the 40's, and possibly mid 40's or higher. Without a good selection of full Scottish, it's hard to say.

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  2. LibDems at 11%. Squeaky bum time for Swinson, Jardine and Lord Rennie.
    SNP Motoring wi nae clouds on the horizon.
    Early days mind.

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    1. Is Lord Rennie standing for a seat in the London parliament?

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  3. Swinson's vote is going to drop, it's just a question of how much, because Swinson's vote in East Dunbartonshire isn't a personal vote or as you say even a Lib Dem vote, it was an anti SNP vote, but this time it looks like the SNP vote is coming back after refusing to turn out last time

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    1. I'd have to say that's wishful thinking. The Lib Dems are still polling higher than in 2017, and Swinson is now her party's leader. For those reasons her majority is likely to increase, not decrease.

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    2. Sadly, I think you'd be right except for the personal animus that Swinson seems to carry around like a shroud. However, you're dead right as regards wishful thinking and unrealistic expectations.

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    3. Jo Swinson will hold her seat easily and very likely with an increased majority as well. She got 41% in 2017 before the Lib Dems were up and before she was leader. I reckon she'll be pushing 50.

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    4. She will only win if Labour and Tory Unionist EU remainers vote for her. Hopefully she will end up in the dustbin of history.

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    5. Sit down and shut up Curtis. Your women and her boyfriend have had enough of you. Time to get down on your chubby knees and beg like you used to in high school.
      There's a reason you were known as Fat Curtis the Cuckold in those days.
      And it's the same reason Leander isn't interested in you now either.

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  4. Well I live in East Dunbartonshire and Swinson may win but she won't win well or the whole area is full of liars because I haven't so far met one Swinson voter and I'm surrounded by the age group who voted Lib Dem last time and that age group aren't slow in telling you who they're not going to vote for and there's a lot less anti SNP this time round

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    1. The Scottish middle class are so wealthy now and they have a choice off Tory parties to keep them in their comfort zones. Labour are finished and the poor fucked for now.

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    2. Pipe down Glasgow Working Curtis.

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    3. I live in East Dunbartonshire as well. When John Nicolson won the seat in 2015 it was down to the tories and lib dems cancelling each other out whilst the SNP vote was motivated to get out and show that the desire for Indepence hadn't gone away.

      This time around the unionists are slightly more organised and will go to teh libdems. The SNP vote whilst higher than 2017 is not as motivated as 2015 as the party is not agressively targeting a pro-indy vote.

      Pehaps the best evidence that the SNP don't see this as a likely win is that John Nicolson is a candidate at this election but not in East Dunbartonshire. He has instead chose to fight the more winnable Ochil & South Perthshire.

      I should say that Swinson is a terrible MP and those that have dealt with her on local issues such as St Joseph's school and West of Scotland rugby club have found her to be a horrible duplicitous individual. However that won't stop Unionists holding their nose and voting for her.

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    4. Looking at the numbers I think James is right it should be a comfortable win for Jo Swinson.On the other hand I don't live in the constituency but know lots who do.None of those I know have a good word for Swinson in fact I am struck with the disdain she is held in .
      Totally unscientific I know but I have just got the feeling that East Dunbarton might be a lot closer than most political pundits believe .

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    5. There are Labour party members campaigning for the SNP against Jo Swinson

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  5. Yes, the runners in the UK race are getting spaced out. (And Ross Thomson isn't even standing.)
    Alternatively, the TwoParty sea level is rising and the LibDems are going to be stranded on a group of islands again. As suggested by the latest DeltapollUK:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 30% (+1)
    LDEM: 11% (-5)
    BREX: 6% (-)

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  6. Looks like the Brexit Party bubble is burst. The only thing that will preserve us from Johnson having a comfortable majority is the SNP doing well in Scotland and the Lib Dems taking Tory seats in strong Tory remain areas, achieving more than their diminishing share of the vote suggests.

    Labour may be the weakest link in this chain of defence especially if the Brexit Party are securing their 6% from Labour voters. No idea how the pollsters are handling the BP decision to only stand in non Tory seats. If they are taking Tory votes then Labour may hold onto their seats and Johnson will struggle. If it is Labour voters drifting to the BP then I fear for Labour and us all.

    I really thought at least one Scottish Sunday would have had a poll today.

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    1. All very well. But I'm interested in Product NOT Process. Thank you.

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  7. Sad that only the Tories will honour the referendum result. The Nat sis, Liberals and Labour are happy to accept votes and salaries from the stupid people when they get a majority.

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    1. If we accept the EUref result and the UK leaves the EU, then the SNP 2016 democratic mandate for iref2 kicks in.

      If the EUref referendum result is ignored and the UK remains in the EU, the SNP mandate is nullified.

      It's your choice.

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    2. Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

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    3. No it's not, that's mince and you know it, if the EU ref is ignored what you're saying is oh my gosh aren't we lucky the English didn't flatten our country......this week....maybe next time eh we'll just all wait and see what the English are going to vote for next time that Scotland gets no say in or is outnumbered by 10 to 1 voters because Scotland might as well not exist, and let's just not forget Wales or Norn Ireland eh, where did you read up on democracy, the Liberal Democrat club

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  8. Polls certainly pointing to a stonking victory for the Scottish hating racist extremist English nationalists.

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  9. Racist, Scottish people hating, British fascist scum. Him and Johnson are no different.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50451747

    General election 2019: Corbyn says no indyref2 before 2021

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    1. Calmn doon Skier it is Sunday take a rest and recuperate. You may not last long enough to enjoy your Scottish wet dream.

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    2. You have to really dislike people with a visceral racist hatred to take away their right to vote.

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    3. Skier you are the man to part the waters and lead the Scots to a better life in the EU. Scotland will become the grouse shooting land for the Franco German Alliance.

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    4. You have to really dislike people with a visceral racist hatred to take away their right to vote.

      Not really. You could have nothing against them on a personal level, while not wanting them to vote because it may threaten your interests. That seems a considerably more likely fit in Corbyn's case.

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  10. Tories might have peaked too early. A long way to go and Boris is awfully fantastic at making gaffes along the way.

    I also wouldn't be too comfortable with the snp vote share, if Nicola doesn't pull something out of the bag in terms of motivating our vote to actually vote, it will be like 2017 all over again

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    1. The deep, racist anti-Scottish hatred of Scots by English parties with threats to strip of them the vote will be a good motivator.

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  11. This thread needs some theme tunes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siwpn14IE7E

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    1. This may be one for after the election. Is there a Catalan version?

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvtdbfI1sqQ

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  12. I'm bored already.

    Prince Andrew likes shagging. I've seen hundreds of pictures today of man with arms round willing young women. Outrage from the puritan feminazi horde!

    Meanwhile the self-same arbiters of morality supported HRC as president. A woman who kissed her husband goodbye as he flew to epstein island 26 times. A family whose enemies always end up dead. The same feminazis who smeared Sanders and his supporters.

    I really hate them. Screwing a 17 year old when you are middle aged, may be sick to some, but it is both entirely natural and not illegal in London. Not even if you are a Prince.

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    1. It's not illegal to stay with convicted pedophiles either. In fact it's the 'honorable' British thing to do.

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    2. I was forced to kiss a girl behind the blackboard at primary school. She was ten and I was the janitor. We are married now and have eight weans

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    3. We see you, Cordelia.

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    4. I am the Head Janny for Scottish independence.

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  13. "Britain Elects Retweeted Survation.

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42%
    LAB: 28%
    LDEM: 13%
    BREX: 5%
    GRN: 3%

    via @Survation, 14 - 16 Nov
    ft. new voting prompt:

    Britain Elects added,
    Survation.
    @Survation
    Voting prompt: To correctly judge the effect of parties that have stood down candidates, respondents were read out the names of the parties and candidates standing in their own constituency. This is the first poll to fully incorporate party standings in each seat."

    Yes, definitely spaced out.

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  14. Farage's decision to stand down Brexit candidates in Tory marginals could hurt the LibDems big time. Many of these were Tor-LibDem battle grounds. The LibDems were banking on a split LEAVE vote in many of their target seats.

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  15. Corbyn goes on about the establishment and the filthy rich running the country but remains silent about the rich and court judges defying the democratic will of the people. There should be a working class alliance candidate to unseat him.

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    1. "Democracy is for the many, not the few!...

      ...Unless you are Scots that is!"

      Corybn is racist English ('are superior') nationalist scum just like Johnson. It's just his racism is more paternal. He still thinks Scots, blacks etc are all inferior to white English, and so England should be governing them, or at least showing them the truth path. It's just he'll pat you on the head rather than gas you.

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  16. The LibDems will hold on to all their Scottish seats and probably take NE Fife. Too many tories voting tactically. 2015 caught them off guard but they wont make that mistake again. Jo Swinson's politics and her illiberal voting record make it all the more easy for Scottish tories to vote tactically for the LibDems.

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    1. In the eastern Borders I've spoken to people who feel they are staring into the abyss, with no real option. These are the 'good unionists'. They hate the SNP, so voted Conservative in 2017. But now they hate Boris Johnson and Brexit even more. They don't want to risk a Lib Dem vote and let John Lamont back in. They're going to vote SNP, even though it will burn their British souls. If Calum Kerr wins, I hope he's humble enough to realise it will be on the back of these kind of people as well as the true believers.

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    2. Willie Rennie's ImaginationNovember 18, 2019 at 7:06 PM

      If he wins he'll need to remember the Borders is a very changed place. No Borders Reivers nowadays. Just people wearing pin-striped underwear to the bridge club. "What a heavenly hat, Clarissa. Did you buy when you were up in town? Charming."

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  17. Hardly a surprise. Leavers are pretty fascist (authoritarian).

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196439792197799939

    They only believe in democracy as long as you are English. If you are Scots, European etc, then you don't get a vote/say.

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    1. Leavers are the Democrats and the Jock Nat sis are the fascists who do not accept the ballot results.

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