Thursday, October 17, 2019

No, of course the SNP wouldn't get a Section 30 order by offering to back Johnson's Hard Brexit deal

So this is all coming to a head at breakneck speed: a Hard Brexit deal has been done between Boris Johnson and the EU, it needs to be ratified by parliament, and we should find out whether the numbers are there within 48 hours.  James Forsyth of the Spectator thinks that they will be if the EU accedes to Johnson's request to essentially blackmail MPs by saying it's this deal or an immediate No Deal exit.  I'm not sure whether that's wishful thinking or not, because there's a possible third option of a referendum with a straight choice between this deal and Remain, and that's such an obviously attractive outcome for the EU that I find it hard to believe they would thwart it.  Could Johnson really remain as PM while a second referendum took place on his watch?

On the questionable assumption that Johnson's deal is heading for defeat by a relatively narrow margin, a certain Somerset-based scribe of our mutual acquaintance has suggested again that the SNP should swing the balance and allow the deal to pass in return for Boris Johnson granting a Section 30 order and allowing an independence referendum to take place next year.  This is a bogus narrative designed to make it look like the SNP are selling out on independence.  As I've pointed out before, the SNP's supposed leverage simply isn't there - if they made Johnson such an offer, he would say "no".  He would have no other choice, because his own MPs would desert him otherwise.  An arrangement with Nicola Sturgeon wouldn't actually help him to get Brexit through, because he would lose more votes on his own side than he would gain from the SNP.  And he knows all of that.

Even in a hypothetical world where Johnson did agree, the SNP would pay a terrible price in the general election that everyone knows is coming and that cannot be delayed for longer than a few months.  Remain voters would desert them in droves for facilitating Brexit, and there would be a betrayal myth that might linger for decades.  Would that be a price worth paying to actually get Indyref2 on the statute book?  There's a debate to be had on that, but one thing's for sure - it would not enhance the chances of a Yes vote when the referendum takes place.

So, no.  Whatever doubts I might have about the SNP leadership's current strategy (I think they should be open to a Plan B, for example), one thing we should all be able to agree on is that they are not making any sort of tactical blunder by declining to make a naive offer to Johnson that would undoubtedly be rejected and that would backfire on them anyway.

53 comments:

  1. Wings likes poker, maybe he likes to go for the long odds hands to satisfy a need of risk. his suggestion on this is a terrible idea, a kamikaze approach to politics.

    I'm not as resistant to a new party as yourself, but his approach to this is too much a 'throw of the dice' gamble that could leave us back in the 1980's with independence parties vastly reduced in Holyrood & WM.

    I fear he is irked by the SNP, and I'm not convinced it is about independence strategy that is causing this,.

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  2. Agree on that, James.

    They could maybe have played that sort of card a while back if they'd been much more neutral on Brexit post-EU ref, taken the line of England, Wales and NI have their own positions but we represent Scotland's position) and then May had needed the support to get it over the line, but they've gone too far down the twin tracks now of opposing Brexit and the "Boris can't be trusted" route (for obvious and correct reasons) to turn around now and say anything at all counter to that.

    The SNP can continue to oppose given that has been their consistent position and either there is the numbers to get the Boris deal through, in which case the position of Scotland's voice being ignored continues to hold (and the push towards indyref2 on that basis continues to make sense), or it won't pass the HoC, in which case it will probably be an extension and the election we expected anyway.

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  3. The narrative is simple. If NI can be in the single market and have EU synched rates of VAT why can't Scotland? The answer is; they don't want us to. No matter how we voted in the EU Referendum. That's a powerful argument for on the fence unionists going into an indy ref campaign.

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    1. It can only be explained by a deep hatred of Scots by Westminster politicians. That is what is going through minds across Scotland right now.

      At the same time, N. Irish unionists are thinking broadly the same thing; that English MPs couldn't give a shit about them either / are selling them out.

      And it doesn't matter if the deal falls in the HoC. If a mate tries to shit all over you, just because you managed to stop that happening by being one step ahead, the damage is done. It's permanent. The DUP now know they can never trust the Tories and that England has no love for N. Ireland at all.

      The union is eating itself.

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    2. It is not a hatred for Scots, it is a dire need for our tax money.

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    3. Not hatred, just disregard. But William is right: it's our money that's on their minds.

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  4. There's a British nationalist brexit voter at my work. He wants to dump N. Ireland. He absolutely hates them for ruining brexit.

    I can't help smiling about this; his unwitting desire to break up the UK that is.

    Every English MP that supports this deal is stab through the heart of Scottish/N. Irish and even Welsh unionists.

    The SNP should absolutely not vote for it, but enjoy the spectacle of the English Tories stabbing S/NI/W unionists.

    First they took oot Ruth, now they are coming for the rest.

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  5. Disagree with you on this one James. No UK govt wil accede to the S30 demand/request without some sort of leverage. More SNP MPs will make zero difference in a UK parliament dominated by Tories. This might be the last chance to extract the S30. Then we're onto 2021 and Holyrood election run as Indyerf2.
    I will be delighted to be proved wrong.

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    1. "No UK govt wil accede to the S30 demand/request without some sort of leverage."

      That may well be the case, but the leverage simply doesn't exist right now. It takes two to tango, and Boris Johnson would undoubtedly say no.

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    2. An S30 was granted last time without any leverage. After lots of talk about how it would be refused too.

      English nationalist bozo cares far less of the union that one nation unionist cameron did. Jeez, Johnson just handed NI to Sinn Fein and the EU.

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    3. Additionally, Scotland voted against Brexit. Could the SNP seriously support a pro-Brexit deal in the hope they could trust a London govt to stand by it's word? London's behaviour over the past 3 years (and the previous 300) suggest that would be a naive and foolish stance to take.
      If the myth of the SNP letting in Thatcher gained currency for decades, I wonder how long the legacy would last of the SNP supporting Brexit.
      Look how the "highly influential" DUP have made fools of themselves.

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    4. The Treaty of the Union of the Scottish and English Parliaments must still be in use, otherwise Scotland would be independent. The Supreme Court upheld this in July 2019. The treaty was signed between two independent countries. Either can repeal the Treaty whenever it wishes.

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  6. Read what Stuart Campbell says, he's advocating the SNP should behave like Nigel Farage
    Farage is a populist very far right subversive, then read Stuart Campbells own admission, as occupation he lists himself as *subversive*

    If the Sky turned bright green with yellow dots the SNP would never ever follow the strategies of Farage no matter the outcome or objective, it would be electoral suicide for all time and every country of the EU would veto any attempt by Scotland to ever join the EU, but of course if you follow Stuart Campbell closely enough you'll see that that's exactly what he wants and that's exactly the people he's been attracting to his website for a number of weeks as the SNP Independence supporters have been one by one hounded out or just outright expelled from Wings over Scotland

    Stuart Campbell doesn't care about Independence for Scotland while he still lives in England, he cares about revenue for his website which if he got his way and Scotland were to be stuck in Farage limbo his little earner could continue under the false premise that he really really did want Independence for Scotland and one day when that happens he'll do all his sycophants a favour and *come home* to the motherland, and you know what, they'll keep giving him money to fund his income and lifestyle for years to come
    Just like his new mentor Nigel Farage

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    1. You are mental.
      You are also either an SIU twonk, 77th brigade drugg ridden squaddie or one of those madmentalnicky acolytes who are actively campaigning to prevent independence.

      Waving Farage around as a bogeyman won't work. You sound like leasky and his slur of trumpist against anyone who shows him up as an II paid quisling.

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    2. Sheesh! A wings myrmidon.

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    3. This is Free Juankerrtown Corner.

      Turn back or die.

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    4. It was Stuart Campbell who said in his blog that Scotland should do what Nigel Farage would do, he wrote it right in there, it's Campbell who's waving Farage's name around, read it

      When this Brexit is over and the actual people of Northern Ireland who didn't vote for it and don't want it take themselves over to London and things go bang and people die does anybody seriously think if Scotland helps to make that situation possible those same folk won't turn up in Scotland to repay us for helping London, because in their eyes we'd have just become Brits

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    5. Well, many of us trusted him, when he exclusively supported independence. It is the odd perhaps populist nonsense that he now expounds that puts us off. It is a tad sad to see him collapse into a black hole of his own construction.

      Whatever positive vibes I once had for Wings over Scotland have withered to naught.

      And the idiot has done that to himself.

      Losing me is no big deal, but gaining the wierdo's, there's the rub.

      Wings Over Scotland has a health hazard over it and Stu needs to take a long, long break.

      Obviously, just my opinion....

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  7. I believe that this deal is meant to fail. Then Johnson can say that he had a plan that would have avoided That Letter having to be sent. So he regretfully sends it and calls a GE. Only thing is that logically he needs to take an axe to those ERG rebels who caused this 'disaster'. Not that Cummings would mind, given his apparent contempt for the Moggites.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Ofcourse, he was rigging the currency market for his friends, with his out/in performence.

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  8. English nationalists handing NI to Sinn Fein and the EU. Who'd a thunk it eh!

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  9. I work in the academic sector and this is absolutely true. Being part of the UK is ruining it.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-science/brexit-hits-uk-science-funding-deters-international-researchers-idUKKBN1WV29X

    Brexit hits UK science funding, deters international researchers

    LONDON (Reuters) - Uncertainty surrounding Britain’s exit from the European Union has hit science funding to the tune of almost half a billion euros and is putting off international researchers from coming to Britain, a leading institution said on Wednesday.

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  10. Interesting to hear Leo Varadkar's words at the recent EU press conference highlighting the solidarity and support of the EU towards small countries. Notable how the position if Ireland within the EU contrasts with that if Scotland within the UK. Better Together really only applies to EU and never to UK.

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  11. I'm not sure whether that's wishful thinking or not, because there's a possible third option of a referendum with a straight choice between this deal and Remain, and that's such an obviously attractive outcome for the EU that I find it hard to believe they would thwart it.

    Is it? A Remain victory in a second referendum certainly doesn't end this. The Tories would have to remain pro-Brexit to be electorally viable, so every GE would be about this issue until a) people get bored and move onto something else, which may never happen, or b) the UK leaves anyway. Would the EU really choose to have a member permanently lingering at the exit door, possibly succumbing to the actual far right, spreading the uncertainty and economic instability over the decades; would they really want that over letting us just GTF now?

    I dunno. Politicians tend to favour short-term sticking plasters over permanent solutions, and the EU isn't currently short of internal fires to fight, so maybe they would indeed choose to kick the can again. But it doesn't seem obviously more attractive than putting an end to this saga once and for all.

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  12. What you Nat sis have to do is kill some Unionists like Sinn Fein Catholic IRA did and get a Fun Sunday Agreement.

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    1. You sound like a cheery fellow - is the Tories selling out the DUP and exposing all that crap about 'out precious union' to be just...well 'crap' upsetting you?

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  13. Wings Forward UnitOctober 17, 2019 at 7:33 PM

    The kit bags have arrived and the enamel badges will be here soon.

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    1. Bagpipes porridge oats and forward with Jocko bayonets and Buckfast. Who would be responsible for getting the Jocks out of bed tae fight the English. A wee Asda drinks voucher would help.

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    2. Mugs and flasks are available. We are now measuring and photographing perks for our followers.

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    3. Will they weave crowns of daffodils around their heads and sing madrigals?

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  14. One thing is for sure. If they made a deal with the Tories, they would end up stabbed in the back. Even suggesting such a thing is idiotic on the part of those who are doing so.

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  15. Imagine after all this time people celebrating a deal that isn't a deal and celebrating an end to something that won't end for years and in the meantime everybody gets poorer just so that financial speculators in London get richer and everybody knows that's what it's about yet they still plough on with their tribal groups because everybody is afraid of riots in England if they don't get their way

    It's comical that everybody has avoided the subject of the real Irish people who want nothing to do with this who'll turn up in London and point out very loudly and horribly to the English they shouldn't have done this to them

    As for Scotland helping the English with this debacle folk must be mad, go down the route of voting with the Tories and say goodbye to ever becoming members of the EU because behaving in that manner would be breaking the trust of the Scottish voters who voted remain and that's what the Scottish governments job is, defending the rights of the country not ignoring them just to get Independence that would be worth nothing because the Scottish government wouldn't be trusted and the EU would reject us on that basis alone

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    1. It was a UK election and the vote must be honoured just like the Scottish referendum was. It would be interesting to know how many Scottish Europhiles were sucking Barniers Cock.

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    2. If it was a UK election (sic) and the vote must be honoured why is Northern Ireland being treated differently from the rest of the UK?

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    3. Can we please have a lot more on why the Northern Irish are entitled to a constitutional vote every seven years if the Scots are not?

      Now in the 6th year Anno Referendum. Tick, tock...

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  16. Those Scottish Nat si msp women had to stand up to suck ma boabie. Something to do with rickets.

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    1. I only let British women with thick lips give me a mouthy. God bless her majesty. No knickerless gnomes.

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    2. And no mouthies from Knickerless Soames either. Tory nat. EU puppet

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  17. Pope John Paul Junkher HicOctober 18, 2019 at 1:02 AM

    The Scottish Nat sis and the Labour Liberal right wing elites have given us over 25 billion quid since the British voted to leave the EU and we thank you mugs.

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    1. I took it last night. Young Polish guy.

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  18. Hey GWC. I telt ye the Inglish wuid sell oot the N. Irish unionists.

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  19. Now you know why Ruth quit.

    How will Scottish Tories sell this on the doorstep? English Johnson sold out the N. Irish unionists to Sinn fein / Brussels, and has sold out the Scottish unionists by proving the nats were right all along; the English government is racist and filled with anti-Scottish hatred. It's the only explanation for Scotland being singled out like this. Everyone else is getting what they wanted / voted for.

    Just wait for Scotland and N. Ireland to vote down Johnson's new deal, keeping England in the EU. This will 'strengthen the ties that bind us' lol.

    I must admit I laughed the other day when Adam pointed out that Scots / N. Irish votes helped keep England in the EU. Sure, once in every 100 votes or whatever, Scots can swing it. But this was a f'n disaster for the union. If you are wondering when English voters started backing indy/reunification refs in the celtic nations, this was the moment.

    The SNP's 'stop brexit' slogan is not directed at Scots voters. They've no need to convince Scots to vote for that lol. It's for English (brexit) voters.

    They know, as I've always said, that if you want to guarantee interdependence, get English voters to want it.

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  20. Re the "Somerset Scribe" again he shows his complete and utter lack of strategy 1 De Piffel would almost certainly say no to such a deal damaging the SNP beyond repair. 2 De Piffel is totally untrustworthy even if such a deal was carved in Cairngorm Granite he would renege. 3 Even if such a deal was granted and S30 given it would be unmitigatedly counter-productive as we would surely lose any referendum built on such skulduggery ending Independence for 30-40 years. Lesson for one to learn. STRATAGY : NOUN
    a plan of action designed to achieve a long-term or overall aim. The Scribe he don't do Stratagy.

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  21. I've commented on "the scribe's" threads off and on for years and have read his stuff most days. Also kicked in to quite a few fund raisers.

    He seems to be drifting further and further into bitterness and weird ideas. I suppose I'm just sad about it but I'm gradually losing interest in what he thinks. This site is plagued by a few total idiots - but also talks what to me is good sense most of the time.
    Build the YES movement, build the SNP vote - keep cool and push on !

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    1. Exactly the same here. Haven't bothered with his website for a while. It used to be my first of the day.

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  22. A deal with the Tories might be an option if they had to deliver a section 30 carved in stone before you signed off their brexit deal.

    Only a fool would sign up to their deal based on a promise of one.

    As for the last Section 30, no UK government is bound by the actions of its predecessors. The Scottish government asked the previous UK government for a Seciton 30 and in response, the latter voting itself out of office. It did so to try and sidestep the Section 30 in part. When a new UK government was formed, the Scottish government did not ask it to proceed with a section 30.

    Like it or not, that's what happened. 2017 took the wind out of SNP sails and they stepped back from pursuing the Section 30. So far, one hasn't really been refused by Westminster. It's just No 10 have said they's say no.

    Even then, it's not up to No 10 anyway. A 'Ken Act' cuid be passed over Bozo's heid passing a section 30 if the opposition want to do that.

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  23. SNP and DUP should absolutely vote against this deal.

    Let's 'strengthen the ties that bind us' by voting for our dream union; one that stays firmly in the EU.

    Of course if E&W don't like that, they could just go for independence. Scots MPs wouldn't reject a Section 30 request.

    @YouGov
    Follow Follow @YouGov
    More
    BREAKING: Snap YouGov poll finds that by 41% to 24%, Britons want Parliament to pass Boris Johnson's Brexit deal. Two thirds (67%) of Leave voters want the deal passed

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/10/18/two-thirds-leave-voters-say-parliament-should-acce?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=Boris_brexit_deal …

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  24. The best way to ensure UK break-up is for the Scots and N. Irish to stop half the English population getting what they want.

    You want to end the UK by mutual agreement in a quick fashion? This is how you do it.

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    1. Who do folk think half of Scots want indy? Well, make the English want it for exactly the same reasons and bye bye Britain.

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  25. Who? I don't know.

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  26. Hey - progress -
    Catalonia burns, Brexit catastrophe looms, Wings has forgotten trans hysteria and hating the SNP for about ten tweets.
    Maybe somebody should be checking his tweets for a Morse code message saying 'I am a prisoner'

    ReplyDelete