How the mighty have fallen. Just two years after her 'spectacular triumph' in the general election (ie. 'only' losing to the SNP by 8%), it genuinely does now look possible that Ruth Davidson is about to lead the Scottish Tories to an all-time electoral low. A second YouGov subsample in as many days has the Tories on just 10% of the Scottish vote for the European Parliament, which even with the help of proportional representation wouldn't be quite enough to retain the one seat they currently hold.
Britain-wide voting intentions for the European elections (YouGov):
Brexit Party 23% (-4)
Labour 22% (n/c)
Conservatives 17% (+2)
Greens 10% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 9% (n/c)
Change UK 8% (+2)
UKIP 6% (-1)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 5% (+1)
Scottish subsample: SNP 42%, Greens 13%, Labour 11%, Conservatives 10%, Brexit Party 9%, Liberal Democrats 7%, UKIP 6%, Change UK 4%
Now remember these are just subsamples, and can't be regarded as reliable estimates of Scottish public opinion. But the pattern of low numbers for the Tories has been so consistent that it's hard to believe it doesn't reflect something real - and in any case YouGov appear to structure their Scottish subsamples more carefully than other firms do.
You know the drill by now - just regard this as "a bit of fun", but here is what the seat allocation would look like if the subsample happened to be exactly accurate...
SNP 4, Greens 1, Labour 1
The Tories would miss out altogether after being pipped for the final seat by the SNP. For what it's worth I think it's pretty unlikely that the SNP will take four seats in the real world. In past European elections they've tended to underperform what the opinion polls suggested, so it's easy enough to imagine them ending up in the low 30s, which hopefully would still be enough to take three of the six seats - the most they've ever had.
At Britain-wide level, the four-point drop in Brexit Party support in the space of one day looks a bit odd. It could just be random sampling variation, but I wonder if it was caused by respondents for today's poll only being asked the Euro-election question after being asked for their Westminster preferences. That might have put them into more of a 'Westminster mindset', which would be less favourable for Farage's mob. If the datasets are to be believed, yesterday's poll didn't appear to ask for Westminster voting intentions.
Strangely, there's also a ComRes poll out today that has the Brexit Party lagging in third place for the Euro elections. When I first saw it I wondered if it was a phone poll, because that would have been the most obvious explanation for such a wide disparity between two firms. But no, it's an online poll just like YouGov's, so the true position is anyone's guess.