Sunday, April 28, 2019

Drama as new Panelbase poll continues to show support for independence at unusually high levels

Like the proverbial London buses, you wait ages for a full-scale Scottish poll, and then three come along all at once.  Hot off the press is Panelbase's latest polling on independence...

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47% (n/c)
No 53% (n/c)

Now this is a really interesting one, because I know some people will take a casual look at the numbers and argue that the no change position means Panelbase have failed to detect the same surge that YouGov found.  But what we have to remember is that this is no change from an unusually good Panelbase poll for Yes last December.  Panelbase have recently (along with YouGov) been one of the more No-friendly pollsters, and the 47% in December was the highest share they had reported for Yes in more than two years.  In fact, between the spring of 2017 and the autumn of 2018, they had never reported a Yes vote higher than 45%, and the more typical figure was 44%.  

So that would tend to leave the impression that there has indeed been a significant rise in Yes support, although it muddies the waters as to when exactly that increase took place.

There's some confusion on social media about the Westminster numbers in the poll, but they appear to be as follows (I'll correct them if they prove to be inaccurate)...

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster (Panelbase):

SNP 38% (+1)
Conservatives 22% (-5)
Labour 21% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Brexit Party 5% (n/a)
Change UK 3% (+1)
Greens 2% (n/c)

It's no great surprise that the SNP's share of the vote is lower than in the Survation and YouGov polls, because Panelbase have consistently painted a less rosy picture for the SNP than other pollsters.  In this case it barely seems to matter, though, because thanks to the two main unionist parties struggling so much, and in particular thanks to the combined Labour/Tory vote being split down the middle, the SNP are on course for massive seat gains even if Panelbase prove to be closest to the truth.  The seats projection based on a uniform swing is: SNP 46 (+11), Conservatives 8 (-5), Liberal Democrats 4 (n/c), Labour 1 (-6).

30 comments:

  1. So this is three polls where we are on the short side of a toss_up. So that's closing on the outside. Assuming these don't include 16_18, we are tied up.
    On another question, what does " liberal economic policy" mean in Europe. I keep seeing " center right" parties ( see Spain!!) Where this is the only non right position. Confused what this means in practice ? Help me Jimmy Kelly! You are my only hope.

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    1. I'm not quite sure what you mean by "only non-right position"? In Spanish terms, Podemos is left-wing, the Socialist Workers' Party is centre-left, Ciudadanos is centre-right, the People's Party is either centre-right or right-wing depending on your point of view, and Vox is hard-right. "Liberalism" isn't synonymous with "left-wing" in Europe in the same way it is in the US. "Economic liberalism" can mean something akin to Thatcherism, for example.

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    2. Thanks. thats what I thought. They have 14!! Major parties in Spain. 14. Be thankful you don't have to blog on the value of your 13th choice!!

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  2. I'm assuming all of these polls exclude 16/17 yr olds..... Who we'd expect to be heavily Yessers. What would their inclusion do to that 47% total James?

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    1. 16 and 17 year olds are included in Panelbase polls.

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  3. Panelbase is one of the least favourable for Yes these days too!

    This is the poll I was on about yesterday. ;-)

    So 48% Yes / 52% No average is comfortably into 'statistical tie' status. It's no really possible to say whether Scots support indy or not in a snap referendum 'tomorrow'.

    From what gather, the times article, as per past polls, shows brexit actually going ahead causing a decent swing to Yes, with a hard brexit (i.e. May and Corbyn's plans) giving Yes a majority.

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  4. This tweet is interesting as it actually reveals Corbyn's racism. It's not standard jackboots nasty racism, but the superiority aspect of it is very clear.

    This is why he's against free movement. He does deep down see white English as a superior race, with only them capable of leading his nativist English socialist revolution. They will guide and nurture lesser assorted blacks, browns, jocks etc, free from undesirable foreign influence.

    ----


    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/869571607060070401
    Jeremy Corbyn
    @jeremycorbyn
    Only Labour can be trusted to unlock the talent of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people.


    Here's an identical version for us:

    Only British/English Labour can be trusted to unlock the talent of Scots, Irish and Welsh Ethnic people.

    Corbyn is just like Bozo, Mogg, Farage, but on the 'left'.

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    1. To add...

      He's just as likely as May to refuse an iref if he was PM. Just like her, he has said he believes it's his/England's choice (he would personally 'decide at the time') whether Scots can have independence.

      The answer could well be no if he decides our 'talents can only be unlocked' with his/England's superior wisdom and guidance.

      This was the same attitude used to all the colonies by Labour and Tory alike.

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    2. On coming to power in 1945 Labour efter much hert searching mind decidit it couldna free the British colonies as it would affect the prosperity o the British people.
      Same reason they cannae let us go Scot Free.
      Tough times ahead. London will fling the rule book oot.
      The wider world will back Scotland over the UK.

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    3. Hooch ma handy meenuster ah'll huv a dochy Doris. Och aye the noo.

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    4. The talents of asians and africans is best unlocked by themselves in asia and africa,

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    5. Really doesn't matter how much primitive jockyboy mcjocko gibberish you jocknatsists rant, we shall never surrender.

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    6. Cordelia thinks it's at war, with its talk of no surrender. Such bloodlust.

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  5. However the poll also has - from the Sunday Times -

    'A majority of Scots intend to vote for independence in the event of a no-deal Brexit, a Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times has found for the first time.' The no side appears to softer this time around.

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  6. The polls are all moving the SNP/independence way. This is a pivotal moment in politics although the Tories would be insane to call an election and I simply don't trust Labour to not agree some sort of Brexit deal with the stories and stitch up the Remain supporters.

    I wonder if some sort of Vow2 will be dangled to quieten the restless natives.

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    Replies
    1. We should challenge Unionist politicians to get their vows in early or forever haud their wheesht.
      What worked in 2014 winna work in 2020.

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  7. The remain supporters do not need stitched up they should accept the referendum vote.

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    1. We do. We voted Remain.

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    2. Who's we ya jock midget.

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    3. 62% of the country's population.

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    4. What about the 38% sensible people who are not crawlers to the EU fascists. Hitler got a majority!

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    5. Good to see you concede our win. Thanks.

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    6. The Groundskeeper Willie Clown is the true face of the jocknatsi party, xenophobic national socialist EU hating fascists. Don't be fooled by the pretendy remainers they're oor oil oor fish fascists.

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    7. Big man far gkesgaApril 29, 2019 at 2:03 AM

      Tit washer uh as has been yes a has been. Knows nothing. Nithing

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    8. I hope Cordelia didn't hurt itself on the stagger back to the sobbing cupboard.

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    9. Hitler never managed to win a majority.

      As a result, he decided 'Now is not the time!' for a referendum, and just cancelled democracy.

      I got my polling card today for the EU elections. Bloody fascists; forcing me into the choice of voting if I wish! In Britain they don't force is to choose, they just tell us 'Now is not the time!' and cancel votes.

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    10. Strange about the EU polling card. I didn't realise WM had passed the stages necessary to allow the election to talk place.

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  8. It would seem to be the right time now for the SNP to put repealing the Act of Union into their election manifesto, get elected and do it. No more messing around with Westminsters 'permission', which will not under any circumstances be forthcoming.

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    Replies
    1. I think it's you that's in cloudcuckooland jockyboy.

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    2. What a good and obedient colonial subject Cordelia is. You can almost hear the grovelling in its pathetic whines.

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