Wednesday, April 17, 2019

DEVASTATION for Davidson as BOMBSHELL YouGov poll suggests the Scottish Tories could be WIPED OUT in the European elections

As they say on reality TV shows, I've "been on a journey" over the last few days.  At the start of the weekend I was stating quite confidently - and I think with a fair bit of justification - that the Tories were likely to take two of the six Scottish seats in the European elections.  Now it appears the limit of their realistic ambitions is to hold the one seat they currently have, and it's far from clear they will even manage that.  The reason?  Simply that voters who would probably be solidly Tory in Westminster, Holyrood or local elections appear to be deserting the party in droves for the Euro-vote, to send a message about Brexit.

Britain-wide voting intentions for the European elections (YouGov):

Brexit Party 27% (+12)
Labour 22% (-2)
Conservatives 15% (-1)
Greens 10% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)
UKIP 7% (-7)
Change UK 6% (-1)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 4% (-2)

Scottish subsample: SNP 35%, Labour 16%, Greens 13%, Brexit Party 13%, Conservatives 10%, Liberal Democrats 5%, UKIP 4%, Change UK 3%

Now, of course no individual Scottish subsample can be regarded as reliable, but this is the latest of several in a row to put Ruth Davidson's party at an abysmally low level for the European elections, and well below what they routinely score in Westminster subsamples.  That's unlikely to be a coincidence, so it seems that Tory support - even in Remain-dominated Scotland - is heavily dependent on a hard Brexit vote that is now ready to punish the party for a perceived betrayal.  It's rather satisfying to see Davidson finally get some long-overdue comeuppance for her near-comical flip-flops over the Brexit issue, although in all honesty this would probably still be happening no matter what she had done.

Just for "a bit of fun", here is what the Scottish seats allocation would look like if the YouGov subsample happened to be bang-on accurate.

SNP 3, Labour 1, Greens 1, Brexit Party 1

Yup, that's right.  Zero for the Tories.  Nothing.  Nada.  Zip.  Whisper it gently, but there's a chance that, just this once, Ruth Davidson won't be winning the Scottish Politician of the Year award.  Indeed it's very hard to imagine how her adoring fans in the media would cope with the discovery that it's actually possible for the Tories to go backwards on Ruth's watch.  For example, this would be a significantly worse performance than Annabel Goldie managed in 2009, when the Scottish Tories took 17% of the vote and one seat.  In terms of the popular vote, it would be the worst Scottish Tory performance in any Euro-election ever - not even John Major and Ian Lang managed to fall this low.

Although the Brexit Party surge has largely come at the expense of the Tories, it's also a cause of concern for the SNP in an indirect way, because it's possible that the SNP will be in a dogfight with an anti-Europe party for the final seat (as happened last time around).  It would have been far more helpful if the Brexit vote had remained split down the middle, but it looks like the BBC's lavish coverage for Farage last week has done the trick, and from now on the previous UKIP vote will move across wholesale to the Brexit Party.

There's good news and bad news for the Scottish Greens: this subsample shows them winning a seat, but as it shows the Brexit Party winning a seat as well, it directly contradicts the careful messaging that there's some sort of straight choice between a Green MEP and a far-right MEP (with the implication presumably being that supporters of other parties should 'lend' their vote to the Greens to stop Farage).  Ironically, the last YouGov subsample showed neither the Greens nor the anti-Europe parties winning a seat.  The reality is that, because of the way the voting system works, it's very difficult to tell for sure which party is best-placed to prevent the Brexit Party taking a Scottish seat - assuming it's even possible to do that at all.

Probably the media line on any Scottish Tory collapse will be that this is a freakish one-off caused by unusual circumstances, and voters will come home to the Tories for the general election.  That's true, but perhaps only up to a point - we know from past experience that Farage is capable of carrying over at least a portion of his European Parliament successes into a general election.  That may not win him any Westminster seats under a first-past-the-post system, but it's certainly possible that it could cost the Tories a lot of seats, including in Scotland.  Things might suddenly be looking up for the SNP in their former heartland of the north-east.

48 comments:

  1. Ruth was fond of parroting "peak Nat" at every conceivable (and even inconceivable) opportunity. Is it now time to ask if we've passed peak Ruth?

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    1. Didn't 'Peak Ruth' happen a few years ago?
      Isn't her future behind her?
      Is she still a regular on HIGNFY?
      Does she matter?

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  2. Looking at the YouGov seat projection and Brexit Party are basically just cannibalising the UKIP seats (most of which MEPs have already moved away from UKIP). Conservatives are loosing seats to the left (for being too pro Brexit) but unable to gain seats from the right (for being too 'soft' on Brexit). Graphics here :https://twitter.com/adamjcon76/status/1118600322103029760

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    1. UKIP rising like a phoe.... big sweaty gammon from the flames. Entirely expected.

      Doesn't matter if it's UKIP, the Brexit Party, Anti-Migrants r us; the pale, sweaty racist side of the Tories has been unleashed and there's no putting it back in the nag's head.

      Ending free movement will not be enough. If you think it's bad now, god help foreign people in the UK when the economy really hits the rocks.

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    2. back in the nags head? you have lost me?

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    3. Daan the pub.

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    4. ...and God help other minority groups, such as Scots. Remember, the State and corporate media has already done the groundwork.

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  3. The UK is basically just fucked politically until it breaks up.

    Then it will be able to sort itself out; or at least the different home nations will get what they want.

    There's just no uniting it as things stand.

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    1. The EU is basically just fucked politically until it breaks up.

      Then it will be able to sort itself out; or at least the different nations will get what they want.

      There's just no uniting it as things stand.

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    2. Why don't you name yourself Anon you gutless piece of vermin you are nothing but a Rat in fact worse as at least a rat shows itself!

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    3. Lol, says Mr Unknown

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    4. Antonina G BucketheadApril 21, 2019 at 3:19 PM

      Unknown - time to go on decaf.

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  4. " … voters will come home to the Tories for the general election. That's true, …" How confident can anyone be about this? I struggle to see any possible Brexit outcome that won't lead to a split in the Tory party. And I can't see any rational grounds for predicting the shape of that split and the electoral consequences that will follow.

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    1. I enjoy trying to remember the registration numbers ony neighbours cars when I was a child.

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  5. Who would have thought the STUC would have invited Knickerless the Tartan Tory and fascist europhile to talk at their conference. However the STUC does look like a middle class bunch.

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    1. Cordelia the ultra-right-wing authoritarian there, pretending it's a socialist again.

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    2. What is your definition of ultra right wing as opposed to the right wing Tartan Tories who pursue right wing Blue Tory capitalist policies. I do not recall saying I was a socialist.

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    3. GWC Ha Ha you are tragedy Gold Oh to be in beside your one Brain cell for a day mind you not much point really as it doesn't do anything!

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    4. Cordelia won't be voting next month. Voting is a betrayal of democracy.

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  6. Anyone remember when Labour's Margaret Curran (Curran's Comedy Cavalcade) punched the air and pushed herself with joy when UKIP got Scotland's last EU Park seat?
    Scotland (pop. 5 million) has 6 MEPs.
    Ireland (pop. under 5 million) has 11 MEPs, increasing to 13 when UK leaves EU.

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    1. That's because the Irish talk a lot of shoite at taxpayers expense.

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    2. "Anyone remember when Labour's Margaret Curran (Curran's Comedy Cavalcade) punched the air and pushed herself with joy when UKIP got Scotland's last EU Park seat?"

      It's safe to say she'd be privately pleased, but I'm not sure she'd be so open about it. Unless there's any evidence, it sounds like the kind of thing that gets made up. (How do you "push yourself", anyway?)

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    3. The N. Irish will still be electing MEPs whatever happens. It would breach the GFA if that was not the case; Irish n. Irish are Europeans living in European homes. They must enjoy all the benefits they had prior to brexit, including freely associating / living with / employing any other EU citizen (ergo full free movement stays). If not, that means a hard border has appeared, their rights are being trashed by the English/British gestapo, and so the GFA has been broken.

      That happens and the Americans have said they'll be as quick as the Europeans to block trade with the UK.

      Big Irish lobby in the states. Loads of Irish were forced to migrate there when the brits took their harvests during the famine.

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    4. Nigel Farage - Curran was at the count and her joyous reaction to UKIP's win broadcast on TV.

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    5. I'm guessing this damning footage is curiously unavailable online anywhere

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    6. You can probably find it on YouTube. I saw it live at the time.

      "pushed" = "pished"

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  7. Expect the Torys to not fight this election based on it being a waste of time. Leaving the field open for anti-EU parties. Also by not spending they save funds for a GE soon after.

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  8. In fairness to Margaret Curran (who I do not like) this was an anti-SNP celebration. Slab were mired in the heat of their tribal hatred of the SNP. I am hoping that seeing themselves slip ever lower in the polls and falling to third overall in Scotland might wake them up to the reality of the new political landscape in Scotland. Perhaps the day will come when they might realise that it is better for them to dump the union than to dump the voter - for the voter is dumping them in droves.

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  9. There's another YouGov poll out today (for the Times). Scottish subsample for the EU election has SNP 42%, Green 13%, Lab 11%, Tory 10%, Brexit 9%. That would give SNP 4 seats, Green 1 and Lab 1. Very tight for most of the seats other than 2 for the SNP, though.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/y0zo9icxct/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_bpc_w.pdf

    Westminster subsample is SNP 46, Con 19, Lab 14 and LD 8. Farage's party polling 12% in GB as a whole.

    The polls will be very volatile at the moment because there are a lot of people saying "don't know" or that they won't vote.

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    1. 66% 'Definitely Remain' in Scotland. No way you could proceed with brexit on a 'Scotland only' (not 'UK-wide') vote like that.

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    2. A new Comres Poll has the SNP at 39% for Westminster and 42% for EU in their subsample which was less than 100 respondents.

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  10. UKIP's not an anti-eu party anymore, it's a straight out anti-muslim racist party. Hence why the Brexit party was launched to go for a pure anti-european angle and just utterly coincidentally keep Farage on the gravy train for a bit longer. I wish I had a job that paid me 100k + a year where I can only turn up twice a month to say it wis shite.

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  11. N. Ireland will be staying in the single market with full free movement.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-foyle-west-47973814

    Nancy Pelosi visiting Irish border and Derry

    US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has visited the Irish border.

    Mrs Pelosi told the Dáil (Irish parliament) on Wednesday that the Good Friday Agreement is a "beacon to the world".

    She repeated the warning there was "no chance" of a post-Brexit US-UK trade deal if it was compromised.


    I suspect the grand English nationalist Lab-Con coalition talks are going well. DUP are being dumped, with the way being paved for N. Ireland to start moving towards reunification by effectively staying in the EU.

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    1. of course, that's what Theresa May wanted to do in the first place, as the backstop would have been NI-specific. The UK would have done trade deals with other countries and blocs on behalf of GB only.

      but the DUP (supported by "Team Ruth") pulled the plug on that in December 2017 and forced May to fudge the backstop into UK-wide arrangements. When the Tory right-wingers realised this, they started opposing her deal.

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    2. For sure. And any new trade deals cannot apply to N. Ireland because of the backstop. Otherwise, you have different rules an so a hard border.

      If the UK sits down at the table with Trump, from day 1, the trade discussions will exclude NI as it will be following single market regulations, with the US insisting on this.

      The DUP either need a nutter mad 'fuck the world - we don't need any trade deals' brexit, or no brexit at all. They will block a England's attempts to get a 'sensible' brexit (where international obligations are met) at every turn.

      So May must form a coalition with Corbyn. If she can get even 10 Corbynites on board, she eliminates the DUP.

      Corbyn will never be PM. He doesn't even want to to. But he really, really wants Brexit. It's his lifelong nativist English nationalist dream. He's also fine with N. Irish reunification...

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    3. Leaving the corrupt Mafia EU should be the dream of all democrats and socialists. The EU will eventually collapse into the oblivion it deserves. And the Irish who have murdered for their joke independence have sold out and are the worse EU erse lickers. Eat yer blight spuds paddy.

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    4. More racist gibberish from Yaxley-Lennon's number one fan.

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    5. Who is this Lennon and who is the number one fan?

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    6. Cordelia there, showing its usual shattering ignorance.

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    7. If it was Charlene Tilton I'd be interested and aroused.

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  12. I missed this poll, but apparently it's 42% Yes (ex DK) to full reunification for a snap border poll in N. Ireland 'now', i.e. pre-brexit.

    That's nearly as high as 2014 in Scotland!

    http://archive.is/ZVyx1

    Of course if voters there vote in majority for pro-EU parties, brexit would have to be completely cancelled for N. Ireland; the people spoke in 2016 and they would be shouting this time in an 'N. Ireland only' poll.

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  13. Won't they just blame it on her being off on maternity leave?

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    1. That'll be their tack. If I were her I'd get pregnant again bloody quick to avoid the shit storm heading the Tories' way and remain the most popular politician in the world.

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  14. Davidson will come out smelling of roses. After all, she's not been around to steer the ship and all the party's success has been down to her sparkling personality and warmth. You can hardly blame a devoted new mum for Jackson Carlaw's campaign and the failings of the UK party, against whom she has resolutely stood in defence of her own brand of Scottish exceptionalism.

    Being a Scottish political journalist is easy.

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    1. The journos will happily throw Carlaw under the bus when their beloved Ruthie makes her glorious return.

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    2. Eeh, mother, our Madge has broken the banister. I say, our Madge has broken the banister, mother. Whatever will father say?

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