Wednesday, February 13, 2019

A projection that the SNP will prosper

Just a quick note to let you know that I have a piece in The National today about the latest YouGov seats projection for Westminster, which shows the SNP going up to 39 seats.  You can read the article HERE.

59 comments:

  1. The Nat sis in Westminster are just collecting taxpayers money and not contributing towards the well being of the British people. A bunch of wasters who clearly are fattening themselves with their indulgence in food and drink. Transfer them to the Lords where they can turn up anytime at taxpayers expense.

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    1. Cordelia just dared to mock the Lords. No doubt its red and blue Tory overlords will punish such a divergence from Unionist orthodoxy without mercy.
      Although that may be what the poor depraved creature is angling for...

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    2. Do not be fooled by the Groundskeeper Willie Clown, just because he's retarded doesn't mean he's not a neo-Nazi jock fascist like the rest of the jocknatsist bastards.

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    3. Nothing about Cordelia fools or surprises anyone.
      It's been gibbering the same old nonsense for years.

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  2. Strange about Stirling in particular and probably too early to affect Aberdeen South. Not good about North Perthshire.

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    1. There's no problem with Perth & North Perthshire. YouGov have that as an SNP hold. The only seats they have changing hands in Scotland are all SNP gains from Labour. They even have the SNP holding North-East Fife, in spite of the increase in the Lib Dem vote.

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    2. That's a relief about Perthshire. I must have been mixing this up with something else I read. Thanks.

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  3. Given apparent disenchantment with Cornyn, isn't it unlikely, barring unforeseen events, that a swing to Labour along the lines of the 2017 campaign will be repeated, though?

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    1. There was a hell of a lot of apparent disenchantment with Corbyn prior to the 2017 campaign - more than there is now, in fact.

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    2. He was an awesome campaigner. He had one stump speech that I remember about the amount of money you get to feed your kid. Not sure why he hasn't cleaned up his act. Most if the stuff that pisses people off is not stuff central to his or the labor agenda. It is mostly picked up from demographics of old labor supporters.

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    3. Well, not really, it's mostly stuff he genuinely believes. (And in some cases, like Venezuela, he's absolutely right to believe it.) There are more than 250 Labour MPs, and in terms of his own private views, there's a case to be made that he's the most left-wing of the lot.

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  4. Knickerless is saying there 'could be' shortages of food and medicines in the event of a no deal and yet the Nat sis will vote against any deal. Turkeys voting for Christmas.

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    1. Yes, I'm sure Scots will blame Scotland for a hard brexit lol.

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    2. skier, Google, Evening Standard, cartoon Referendum, 1975. A good one.

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    3. Cordelia figured out how Google works. That's awfully close to learning and thinking for itself, and that would never do.
      No doubt its masters will put paid to such an infraction in due course.

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  5. The May regime is in a difficult position on the electoral side too, evidently, in addition to all the other problems it faces: a General Election at this point would gain her four seats, maybe, and increases the SNP lead in Scotland. If she goes for a General Election - she still won't be able to get a deal through the Westminster parliament because her own party won't let her, and she can't hand over the whole poisoned chalice to the ineffectual and feckless Jeremy Corbyn, because he is, as they say, unelectable, and the Labour party are likely to suffer yet another wipeout in Scotland.

    Also, the PM may believe that the First Minister / the SNP may campaign on a platform that a vote for the SNP candidate (or the Green) in any seat in a General Election counts as a vote for independence, and against that scenario, she may calculate that she stands more chance of keeping hold of Scotland in a rerun of the Brexit referendum. If the polls are right, the result of a Brexit referendum rerun is likely to be Remain, and that would eliminate the major casus belli we Scottish independentistas have with the Westminster regime, and eliminate one plank of the mandate to hold a second independence referendum.

    That's my analysis, anyway, for what it's worth. Do feel free to ignore it!

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    1. Lots of " unelectablr' conservatives have been elected lately. Not sure why we assume people won't elect a lefty. Ceaser was from what would now be progressive left. Peron. I could go on.

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    2. Could be interesting to see what happens if a Remain result was thanks to voters in Scotland. We vote as a single country etc? Not sure what Boris, Rees-Migg etc would have to say.

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    3. In their rage, they would insist that we were wrong and that Holyrood is a hive of sedition. They would lobby for Holyrood to get the same treatment that Madrid is dishing out to the Generalitat.

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  6. When on holiday with my lady wife I always wear low-friction undergarments. Cordelia says it's easier on her.

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  7. From a quick scan of the news from Westminster, I see it's another strong and stable day in the UK.

    Being realistic, I can't see how it would honestly be possible for us to fuck up an indy Scotland more than this.

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    1. Crash out imminent. Cannot wait for the ROI and their EU fascist controllers setting up the border controls and smashing the Belfast Agreement. Looks like the EU will have to pay the ROI a fortune to keep them on board.

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    2. We've been over this. If you don't enforce a hard border with the EU, either on the island of Ireland or down the Irish Sea, the migrants will just stroll into the UK in their hordes. All colours, religions and funny languages. The UK leaving the EU to 'take control of its borders' then leaving the only land one with the rest of the world wide f'n open is the most inanely stupid thing ever. It would render brexit utterly pointless.

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    3. You have been over yourself continually. Why would migrants come to ROI and walk all the way to NI and be contaminated by the Orange when they have Guinness, Catholicism and red heided bints playing the fiddle. They would stay in the Republic. They should avoid the boat back tae Scotland on the 13th July.

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    4. They can just get on the ferry for England. Unless there is some sort of hard border at ferry ports. Not sure the DUP will like that.

      At the moment, no passport is needed, folks move freely from island to island. That can't continue post brexit as boat loads of migrants from the EU (and even Africa) could just flood across.

      Not only that, but lorries full of EU goods could flood the English market. No customs posts on the land or sea borders and what's to stop them?

      You've not thought this through.

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    5. The EU goods would save us from the predicted starvation when we leave. I would not worry skier the people on the British Isles have survived for centuries in spite of setbacks like the Plague. Politics and people go on. The EU will die eventually. Did you check out the 1975 cartoon?

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    6. At the moment, no passport is needed, folks move freely from island to island. That can't continue post brexit as boat loads of migrants from the EU (and even Africa) could just flood across.

      Not only that, but lorries full of EU goods could flood the English market. No customs posts on the land or sea borders and what's to stop them?

      Unless you are a UK or Irish citizen you need a passport to travel into or from ROI or NI, so no change there. Non EU goods could also flood the single market, so works both ways unless the EU is not going to protect its single market anymore.

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    7. Once you are in Ireland, you can walk across the border, so hordes of Bulgarians, Romanians, Estonians etc can hop onto a ferry to Dublin, then just stroll into the UK. Unless the UK is seriously policing (watchtowers etc) ferry ports and asking everyone for passports, searching cars, lorries etc, migrants could easily get in this way. They don't need to right now, but if the Dover-Calais route becomes a 'Great big, beautiful wall', then the back door looks really attractive.

      Sorry, but the UK can't both protect it's border and leave it f'n wide open. N. Ireland has full free movement with the UK and ROI, while the ROI has full free movement with the EU. There's no way out of that but breaking the GFA or a migration border down the Irish sea. That's before the goods problem.

      And remember lol…

      English gestapo stopping Irish going back and forth on the land border = big problem. GFA breached.

      Irish police on the S border stopping Brits going into the EU/Eire = no problem at all. After all, the Brits don’t f’n want free movement. They voted to be stopped on the border. GFA respected as the brits asked for an end to free movement.

      Unless were are now going to argue that brexit was not a UK-wide referendum? :-)

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    8. This is actually the perfect solution.

      The border remains open for Irish + EU citizens and their businesses. Irish farmer can go back and forth...his polish girlfriend can pop over for dinner of an evening...take a job on the farm visa free...

      For brits and their businesses, the border becomes a hard one as they wanted. They have to carry a passport.

      Everyone happy. GFA agreement respected as both sides get what they want.

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    9. So my colleage at work who is Irish but holds a British Passport (as is her right under the GFA) would not be able to cross the border? Fragrant breech of the GFA agreement. ROI would face crippling sanctions for doing that, dont think you have through this through...

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    10. I hope most of these are in jest.

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  8. Billy Boy Mitchell Proddie Fllute BlawerFebruary 14, 2019 at 7:16 PM

    I have been put up in a DB&B in Aylesbury by the BBC and will make a surprise attendance on Question Time.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Presenting the show, presumably.

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    3. Flute Boy's fan club sharing its fantasises again.

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  9. It is humiliating for Scotland watching those EU crawling Jock Nat si blow job merchants on their knees in the Commons and that is just the men..Spit it out Jockos and get some dignity.

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    1. Cordelia, there, sharing entirely too much about its inner fantasy life.
      There is no indignity or humiliation it would not gladly accept so that it can continue to cringe before its imperial masters.

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  10. I remember when Lithuania beat the USSR by singing. Then Latvia did the same. And Estonia. The Ukraine and Moldova broke away. And Georgia, Armenia & Azerbaijan. Then it was Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. If only they'd had Pamela Nash and EmpiresRUs to keep them right.

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  11. skier, I would feel great getting my passport checked at the Irish border or any border outside the UK.

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    1. This is what I mean. The EU/Irish can close the border to Brits, but keep it open for EU and Irish. That respects the GFA, even for a hard brexit.

      So, the EU + Irish army manning the south side does not break the GFA. Irish people & EU citizens are happy as they can go back and forth freely. As can goods they're carrying.

      Brits are also happy as they get stopped and searched, even sent back if they don't have a visa, just as they voted for.

      It's perfect. You can have your hard brexit, but the GFA is saved.

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    2. Let them close the border especially the Irish it would save us money in their pubs. Better spent in NI I say which has the best scenery and hospitality. Bushmills I am oan ma way.

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    3. Shes Irish, just holds a British Passport? Why should be stopped?

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    4. Fadder bum boy former pervert.February 15, 2019 at 1:45 AM

      Get an Irish passport dye your hair red, wear a short skirt, learn to play a fiddle and the priests will ignore you.

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    5. If 'she's' Irish, she can get an Irish passport. The British voted to be stopped at the border (if we agree the brexit result applies UK-wide); it's what they wanted. So, 'She' should respect the result!

      ...or get her Irish passport and be free to go back and forth while the Brits get stopped, searched, refused entry etc.

      Seems an absolutely perfect solution to me.

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    6. the GFA recognised the birth right of the ‘people of Northern Ireland’ to identify themselves and be accepted as either Irish or British, or both, as they may choose, and accordingly hold British and Irish Citizenship. This is incorporated in the UK-Ireland GFA treaty and is legally binding. Crucially in accordance with the equality and parity of esteem provisions of the GFA this choice is not to result in differential or detrimental treatment.

      So only perfect solution if you want to break the GFA agreement, how long do you think Irelands rainy day fund will last once the sactions start kicking in?

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    7. Aye, would be interesting to see how many DUP 'plastic brit traitors' go right out and get themselves an Irish passport lol.

      But I don't see how that would really be a problem. If Orangemen loyalists want to become Irish, 'pledge allegiance to the papist state'...'become Europeans on their knees run by Brussels'….’betray Billy’s memory’ and be a ‘traitor to lizzie’ etc, they can do exactly that; I’d just laugh at how pathetic it was. Living completely up to expectations; like me voting for independence then demanding I get to still use my British passport, i.e. a total wank.

      Alternatively, we can just make it based on how people voted in the EU ref. Leavers get stopped, just as they voted for, while Remainers can cross the border freely.

      Nobody could complain that was breaking the agreement; voters would be getting exactly what they wanted.

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    8. Dear, dear.

      I've never understood the loyal, unrequited love of the Irish brits for England...

      https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-man-not-allowed-british-passport-37031439.html

      DUP man not allowed British passport

      ...Irish passports are widely available in Northern Ireland, people who have never even been to the Republic can apply for and get an Irish passport," the East Londonderry MP said.

      "Because our [UK] Government haven't reciprocated people who have been born in the Irish Republic but lived here for sixty years in Lord Hay's case, and there are thousands of others who have lived here, paid tax to HMRC, vote here but the only way they can get a British passport is the naturalization process.

      "If they keep saying they are going to uphold the Belfast Agreement then part of that Agreement says that they will allow people to choose their own identity. If the the Irish Government are prepared to give full citizenship rights to people in Northern Ireland why can't they (the British Government) offer British Citizenship to people who regard themselves as British in every possible way apart from the fact they were born on the wrong side of a land border nearly 70 years ago."

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  12. Why does everyone assume you can tell by sight who is irish or not? Seriously : no freckles,long nose : stop for a papers check?

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    1. If you go tae Parkheid every other Saturday you will hear foreign Irish accents and bigoted Scottish descendents pretending to be Irish and not a Scottish Saltire to be seen.
      And the pretenders are now displaying so called Palestinian flags. The Irish Catholics in Scotland should get on the boat and tackle the perverts that have been shafting their children for centuries.

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    2. You can tell by the accent.

      Just listen to the DUP. 100% Irish.

      I've never stopped finding it hilarious; banging on about how British they are while sounding like Mrs Doyle on St Patrick's day.

      Why don't they work on that more? Get themselves some sort of home counties twang or something? Caitriona Balfe did a fine job.

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    3. I would like to get my passport checked by Ross Thompson.

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    4. Large protruding foreheads and skelly eyes due to over familiarity with the local livestock.

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    5. I'd like Flute Billy to stamp my passport.

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  13. Coming back to the serious question....

    Free movement for all EU citizens between the ROI and N. Ireland can't realistically be stopped. This would required border posts to properly enforce, and any new migration control like this would breach the rights (to associate with and employ EU citizens living on the Island of Ireland) of Irish N. Irish, as protected by the GFA*.

    So, to not break the GFA, the UK has to allow full EU free movement to continue in at least one home nation. That of course means we now have a new border down the Irish Sea, like it or not; a migration border. Passports now needed for the Belfast ferry.

    Furthermore, if N. Ireland can have full free movement with the EU, why can't Scotland? It's an idential situation, just without the car bombs and peace walls.

    And please don't any unionsts suggest that violence is needed for Scots to get such enhanced devolution; you can't justify violence in this way.

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    *An EU Irish person in NI should have as much right to freely be friends with, marry, employ... another EU citizen as a ROI Irish person. This is part of the EU fundamental rights charter; something brexit cannot take away from Irish N. Irish or the GFA is broken.

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    1. Passports now needed for the Belfast ferry.

      Passports are needed for the Belfast ferry now - no change.

      Furthermore, if N. Ireland can have full free movement with the EU

      Scotland can, you have free movement to work and live in Ireland (and visa versa) through CTA.



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    2. My Scottish Bus Pass is usually all that is required. Seen a woman showing her SPT Zone Card ID.

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    3. https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/ireland/entry-requirements

      "British nationals travelling from the UK don’t need a passport to visit Ireland."

      I'm taking about full free movement for EU (French, Germans etc). This must be maintained in N. Ireland or it breaks the GFA by restricting the fundamental rights (to associate with other EU nationals) of Irish N. Irish. Irish N. Irish must have the same EU protected fundamental rights as S. Irish. All there in the GFA.

      The English gestapo can't tell Irish N. Irish their Polish girlfriend isn't allowed over the border...that they can't employ an Estonian builder from Dublin to do the extension... This would break the GFA by creating a migration / trade border where one currently doesn't exist.

      So, like it or not, the UK cannot fully leave the EU free movement zone. Not unless N. Ireland stays in that, while the rUK leaves it. If that happens, then a new border has been created in the Irish sea; one that differentiates N. Ireland from the rUK in terms of migration policy. And so the UK moves towards break up as NI starts to align with the ROI.

      The CTA is nothing to do with this; it's for UK and Irish only, not for EU citizens. It can't solve this elephant in the room unless it applies to all EU citizens.

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  14. This has verged on the most surreal discussion that our good host has, err, hosted.

    This is what you get when the host is a complete free speech advocate, who could, and apparently did, probably rightly, recind a comment from one "Iain Mac an Tailleir".

    I have no idea.

    Anyway, surreal.

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  15. I say, is that GWC chappie a lodger. It does sound very much, that he is planted from the North of Ireland.

    His rowing-boat awaits, at Barassie Shore.

    Toodle pip, chocks away.

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