Thursday, December 20, 2018

No, Mr Kellner, support for staying in the EU has not "rocketed"

Just a quick one, because I see Peter Kellner has gone into full-blown propaganda mode on behalf of the "People's Vote" campaign, and is using his status as a prominent former pollster to attempt to convince people that the "polls are clear" and that support for staying in the EU has "rocketed".  His evidence?  A new YouGov poll showing that people prefer staying in the EU to leaving on the basis of Theresa May's deal by a margin of 59-41, which he contrasts with polls earlier this year showing Remain ahead by around four to six percentage points.  But he knows perfectly well, indeed he knows better than anyone, that the comparison he's making is not remotely meaningful or like-for-like.  The poll he's referring to also asked the standard question that YouGov have been asking since the EU referendum, about whether the UK was right or wrong to leave the EU.  The results on that question were much more familiar -

Right to leave: 41%
Wrong to leave: 47%

YouGov haven't provided figures with Don't Knows excluded, but it must be either a 53-47 or a 54-46 split, depending on how the rounding worked out.  On the high side for Remain, yes, but hardly evidence of "rocketing".

So why were the results so different on the new question giving people a straight choice between Remain and May's deal?  It's probably partly a "question ladder" effect.  Before being asked that question, respondents were first asked whether they support or oppose the draft Brexit deal, and by a margin of almost 2-1 they said they were opposed.  It would have been difficult for some people who are essentially Leave supporters to say they think the deal is awful one minute, and then say they would vote in favour of it the next minute.  After all, several prominent Brexiteers have said that they would prefer to remain in the EU to leaving on the basis of the deal.  But if it ever actually got to the point where there was a straight choice in a referendum between Remain and May's deal, it's safe to assume that almost all Brexiteers would get behind the deal (however grudgingly) and those numbers would in all likelihood start to look very different.

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    Massive support in N. Ireland for a 'trade' border in the Irish sea, with 65% backing it diverging from the UK and staying integrated with the EU.

    For May's deal brexit, it's 50/50 on full reunification. 57% for ending the UK if it's a hard brexit; a little behind Scotland's 59%.

    So pretty much the UK over if brexit goes ahead. And that's before people actually get slapped in the face by the huge pile of shit that's flying towards the fan.

    Lucky for unionists, it appears brexiters have all the baws of Corbyn with a nae confidence vote hand, so are getting cold feet.
    5 hours ago
    Our #EUref tracker now has the number wanting to Remain in the EU at a new high: 54%, with Leave at 46%.

    Lol, so much for El Alamein.

    1. El Alemain was a long waiting game and the Jerries didn't understand that. They still don't realise we are wearing them down now and are getting ready to pounce. Brexit is coming and the nat sis and there may see euro buddies will pay the price for mocking us. Scum

  2. Kellner, like whatshisname in Scotland, is just another britnat establishment tool.