Sunday, November 18, 2018

The Daily Mail should be careful what it wishes for

One of the amusing subplots of the recent Brexit chaos has been the way the Daily Mail, which previously regarded any form of compromise with the EU as treason, had an overnight change of heart a few weeks ago and suddenly started portraying Theresa May as a latter-day Joan of Arc.  There's no mystery about why it happened.  The paper's new editor is a Remainer and presumably regards May's deal as the nearest thing to Remain that he has a cat in hell's chance of actually selling to his readers.  He hasn't exactly been subtle about it, though: quite apart from the suddenness of the U-turn, which must have left regular readers bewildered, he's started running excruciating front page features about how Philip May has done his bit to face down the beastly Brexiteer rebels by making his wife morale-boosting beans on toast for afternoon tea.

Presumably the intention is to appeal over the heads of parliamentarians by presenting May to the public as a plucky John Major-style underdog, building on the apparently spontaneous comments that have been made in surprising quarters along the lines of "you know what, whatever you may think of her politics, you have to admire her stoicism".  Hmmm.  Quite honestly, this is a Prime Minister who has sought to deny our country its democratic rights, and for my money there are no personal qualities that can really mitigate that.  I struggle to see much appeal in her personality anyway.  But it doesn't matter what I think.  The question is whether the public will be impressed by the propaganda effort, and they just might.  If so, it's possible that the Mail could, by helping to prolong May's tenure, be unwittingly putting the SNP into a position of greater influence.

It was suggested the other day that "senior DUP sources" were saying that the confidence-and-supply deal was effectively dead until and unless Theresa May is removed as Tory leader.  If that's true (and admittedly it's an "if"), the government no longer has a majority and Britain reverts to having a hung parliament in every sense of the term.  The SNP thus become by far the largest of several parties that hold the balance of power between them.  That doesn't make them as powerful as they would be if there was a centre-left majority available, but nevertheless their 35 votes do suddenly matter - as we saw from Kenny Farquharson's hapless attempts to 'shame' Nicola Sturgeon into propping up May's government.

She won't do that, of course.  It would be political insanity to bail out a Tory Prime Minister in return for absolutely nothing.  But here's the thing: Theresa May has made the choice to offer nothing.  Few mainstream media commentators seem to have considered this point, but May could solve her seemingly impossible problem at a stroke by simply offering the SNP a generous enough trade.  It wouldn't even necessarily have to be a Section 30 order if that's so politically unthinkable - alternatives would be to reverse the power-grab and devolve substantial new powers, or to extend the Northern Ireland arrangement to Scotland.  The SNP are rational actors - they'd probably let the May blueprint pass for England (which voted for Brexit, after all) as long as Scotland is properly protected.

It probably won't happen, if only because May is the most pig-headed PM in post-war history.  But make no mistake, if she gets to the point where there is no other way to save her own skin, the arithmetic makes it a theoretical possibility.  And that's a mark of the SNP's increased power now that the DUP have seemingly abandoned May.

*  *  *

It's clear that the political crisis is shifting public opinion - Labour have surged into a GB-wide lead in new polls from Opinium and ComRes.  It remains to be seen what is happening in Scotland, but it's at least mildly encouraging that the SNP's share of the GB vote has increased in the Opinium poll from 4% to 5%.  By contrast, the ComRes subsample for Scotland has the SNP in a very typical 36% to 26% lead over the Tories.

*  *  *

36 comments:

  1. There is nothing the Tories could offer Scotland - except actual independence. Helping them out for anything less would be political suicide foe the SNP. Whatever they promised couldn't be guaranteed anyway -they are liars and cannot be trusted.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Come on, that's plainly not true. A deal would have to be generous and nailed down, but of course it's theoretically possible (if highly unlikely due to the occupant of Number 10).

      Delete
    2. But the whole point of the Independence movement (and the SNP, I presume) is 'independence'. Getting slightly better deals from Westminster does nothing to promote that goal. If anything, it detracts from the cause.

      Delete
    3. The sort of deal I'm talking about would plainly advance the cause of independence. Again, I reiterate that this is highly unlikely because of May's own instransigence. But I'm struggling to understand what the objection would be if she was forced to make a major concession.

      Delete
    4. Lots and lots of countries have gotten " independence" by Gerri g increasingly " better deals". In fact, I would bet most. Are Canada, Australia etc. Completely independent? Would 90% of SNP take what Canada had in 1900? Yes. leverage your power to get best deal.get Queen to host signing at Balmoral this time. If you work in deal simplifying International sports system ( one football team so you actually win ?)you could probably win all across Britain.seriously, SNP should keep offering reasonable deals and turn the tables and run on its STABILITY .

      Delete
    5. You're boring me, doll.

      Delete
  2. The UK should walk away from the talks as they are clearly being blackmailed by the EU. A bit of courage is all that is required. The Irish would need massive subsidies from the EU to survive but screw them as they are in bed with the EU as are the Nat sis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Blackmailed", eh? What do you think they're trying to hide?

      Delete
    2. Trade ya eejit.

      Delete
    3. Given the mass xodus of EU citizens from the UK that's underway, we can just stay in with full free trade.

      Hell, no need to leave to end free movement; just telling people from the EU to 'fcuk off back to where you came from!' offically by mass vote worked fine.

      'Bloody furriners. Scrambling for the exit gates, leaving us with a labour shortage and so slowing the economy!' is the new situation.

      Folks mind what Scotland was like in the 1980's; 1 in 10 leaving in search of a better life. Well, the offical figures show that's where the UK is now headed. Workers are leaving in their hundreds of thousands already.

      Delete
    4. You a Yaxley Lennonite or simply a Moslyite?

      Delete
    5. I nominate Little Mix as the next Brexit Minister(s)

      Delete
    6. The Alt muppet has returned no doubt tae promote German dominance of Scotland. However you can get a bratwurst in the St Enoch market.

      Delete
    7. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, xenophobic Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.

      Delete
  3. First signs of UKIP rising like a phoenix from the flames in the latest UK polls.

    That's what got us brexit and what will likely prevent this all being 'solved' by some sort of softish brexit. The Tories never have the national interest at heart and any signs they're going to lose power due to UKIP eating at their share under FPTP will have them chasing the Yaxley Lennon vote big time again.

    And all the time the economy continues to sink (unemployment now on the up) while EU doctors, nurses, engineers, scientists etc flood for the exit gates at Calais (6% down already with this accelerating according to the ONS). We're going to need tighter immigration controls, but to stop skilled people leaving.

    The only way brexit will be solved is the economic, social and constitutional collapse of the UK. At that point, lying flat on it's face, what's left of the empire will come to terms with it's new place in the world as wee England; another European nation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes indeed skier the economic collapse of England would leave Scotland a problem with what to do with 50 billion quids worth of exports to England.

      Delete
    2. What?! Scotland exports 10 billion spoons to England at £5 per spoon? Pshaw! Nonsensical rubbish

      Delete
    3. They are special spoons that can rattle aff some great tunes.

      Delete
    4. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, miserable Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny watching it argue with itself.

      Delete
  4. I simply cannot identify any benefit to the UK from Brexit. I most certainly can identify major setbacks for Scotland. The very fact that Scotland's government has been excluded from involvement in the Brexit negotiations is a fair indicator of UK politics post-Brexit.

    @ GLESGA2, can you list out the contents of the £50 billion of Scottish exports to England please. Oil and gas are declared as ex-regio, the income goes direct to the Treasury so that doesn't count. Scotland provides a power surplus to the national grid - then is charged a levy because the wee electrons zooming down thro' the power lines to England have to travel a long way to reach their point of usage in England. I don't understand the justification but I do understand cheating.

    So please detail out the £50 billion of exports.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. most recent figures from Scot Gov:
      https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00530678.pdf

      Delete
    2. Do not be a wee diddy you can Google it if you are interested.

      Delete
    3. "... cannot identify any benefit to the UK from Brexit ..."?

      Stop and look at the general profile of the Brextreemists.

      Not poor. Not Socialist material. Not averse to sending savings away off to favourable situations. Not averse to reductions in tax. Not too willing to put out bonfire of the employment / economic / planning / health & Safety regulations and relevant regulators. Not averse to poor people being left with no income for five or twelve week intervals if that saves expenditure. Not averse to regulation-free business environment. I wonder if there isn't something recognisable in such a melange of political objectives and why Brexit might seem advantageous.

      Delete
    4. I must pop into Jacob Mogg's shop when I visit Dublin in February. I might pop into him if he's moved over there then to avoid Brexit.

      Delete
  5. Anon

    I think we need to be very careful here and not find ourselves in the same position as BLIS are with the SNP that we must oppose everything the Tories might offer. Bear in mind the sole objective is Independence and if this means we have to sup with the devil so be it. I am a pragmatist, as I am sure Nikola is, and if we can get a deal which promotes the possibility of a successful Independence referendum then we should grasp it.

    A deal which:

    • keeps Scotland in the single market and the customs union
    • reinstates the authorities stolen in the power grab
    • revises the Scotland 2016 Act (particularly the removal of the ‘normally’ provision)
    • provides a new Edinburgh Agreement to recognise Indy Ref2 held under the auspices of the Scottish Government

    This would be a huge step towards Independence. I accept this would be anathema to the hardline supporters of Independence but would be attractive to soft Nos. It would also provide a fallback position should the MSM and UK government with all the resources at their command engineer another No vote.

    To my mind a Win/Win situation for us.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Britain will crash out and it will be WTO Rules. Ten Bob on it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is Ten Bob one of the Cambodian war criminals found guilty this week.

      Delete
    2. Nah it is wan an a tanner WIE flied wice.

      Delete
    3. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, racist Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.

      Delete
  7. Dear god, hundreds of thousands of EU workers have already left the UK, while the number of non-EU hasn't changed in 10 years.

    People know when they're not wanted.


    Yet the brexit delusion continues.

    ----

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46257168

    PM: Brexit deal will stop EU nationals 'jumping queue'

    https://www.ft.com/content/1d23012e-e723-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3

    Fall in EU workers is UK’s steepest since records began

    ---

    What bit does she not understand about there being 6% fewer EU workers in the UK than there was on the day England voted to 'send them back to where they came from!'? Can she not look at a graph and see the accelerating downward trend in numbers? What about the streams of them heading for Gatwick, Calais etc?

    If you want to stop them jumping a queue, it's the queue for the exit gate.

    England said to my wife, colleauges, family "We don't want you here. You steal our jobs, live the high life on benefits, and are not like us as we're special. Get out!". So they're going. That's what was wanted was it not?

    Hell, my Irish passport is on the way so I have the option to get out too I'm from the UK.

    The brexit UK is so, so screwed. It's a land of unicorns and fairies where facts mean nothing any more. We're actually watching migrant workers flooding out of the UK while talking about only letting in the ones we will 'tolerate' in 'our' 'britain for the brits' land. Heaven help us all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nat si propaganda fake news.Go and live in British bailed out ROI with your new passport.

      Delete
    2. Sorry, but do you want migrants coming here? I thought the whole purpose of brexit was to stop them. Well, it's worked, offical ONS figures have them leaving in the their hundreds of thousands. Brexiters should be rejoicing; they've got what they wanted, and without having to spend a penny no tighter immigration controls.

      I've been living in the IMF bailed out Britain since the day I was born. Brexit will likely require the IMF to step in again.

      Delete
    3. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, miserable Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.

      Delete
  8. The migrants we want are not the criminal fraternity migrants who occupy the seat held by Knickerless. Women sitting on the street corners with cups in their hands and the main man emptying the cups into his bigger cup. We need real workers that are monitored by the UK Government.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, xenophobic Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      Funny watching it scream to itself, though.

      Delete
  9. Wish you a very 26 January Happy Republic Day 2019 to all of you. January 26 is our Republic Day. We celebrate this day every year. In 1950, our India became a sovereign democratic republic and it had its own constitution.
    Source: https://www.26januaryhappyrepublicday.in/

    ReplyDelete